VW'S CFB BLANK CHECK WINNER # 4 IN A ROW
- Handicapper
- Vegas Writer
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Louisville vs NC State
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 10:35 AM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Louisville -3.5 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- I'm laying the points with the Louisville Cardinals, who arrive in Raleigh with a 4-0 overall mark and 2-0 record in ACC play, including three impressive wins over quality opponents in Georgia Tech, Indiana and Boston College.
Before I get into the analysis, don't forget that I have my WNBA Dog of the Year going tonight, as the semifinals resume in Dallas and Connecticut. Both home teams are catching points and I love one of these home underdogs.
Louisville has one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, ranking fifth overall thanks to its high-powered rushing game that is gaining 237.2 yards per game, fifth-highest in the country.
The balance comes from the 15th-best passing offense (304.8 ypg). The Cardinals are also producing a lot of points, with 43 per game, the ninth-highest in the country.
The latest win, a 56-28 annihilation of Boston College, saw the Cardinals tally 582 yards of total offense and averaged a healthy 9.4 yards per play.
Louisville recorded eight plays of 30 or more yards in the game - five of which resulted in touchdowns. It’s the second time this season the Cards have totaled more than 580 yards of total offense this season.
Jack Plummer accounted for six touchdowns, a career high five through the air, and passed for 388 yards in the win over B.C. Plummer completed 18-of-21 passes and had a string of 15-straight completions in the game - the fourth-longest streak in school history. His 388 passing yards were the most since Lamar Jackson passed for 393 yards in a win over North Carolina in 2017.
The Wolfpack, meanwhile, should have beaten Virginia by a bigger margin last week, but needed a miracle in a 24-21 win. Miracle, as in Virginia was called for leaping on a FG attempt, and the Pack moved closer and got another crack at it to win at the buzzer.
Considering how the defense performed at home against Notre Dame, it's a cause for concern against the well-performing Cardinals.
Lay the small number.
