Vegas Writer - New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun

VEGAS WRITER'S WNBA UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Handicapper

Vegas Writer

League

WNBA

Competition

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun

Release Date

09/29/2023 10:19 AM

Event Date

09/29/2023 07:30 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Connecticut Sun +4.5 (-115) (BetMGM)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

I'm bought in on this series, and that it could most certainly go five games. The Connecticut Sun stole Game 1 in New York, and now has the homecourt advantage against the Liberty. Both teams can wrap up this semifinal by sweeping two at Mohegan Sun. Do I think that's going to happen? Potentially, yes. But only if the Liberty win tonight. And the Sun are perfectly aware of the dangers in losing Game 3 tonight. That's why I have to take the points with the home dog. The last time the Sun hosted New York, they lost 95-90. They're still on a 5-2 run at home, and during the playoffs are outscoring their opponents by nearly 10 points per game. It's the defense we have to focus on, as the Sun know how to be stingy, and can certainly put the clamps on the Liberty. The effects of a rugged Game 2 against the Washington Mystics were apparent in Game 1 against the Sun, as the Liberty were sluggish in a 15-point loss to Connecticut to start this series. Sure, they rebounded to win by seven in the second game, but traveling to Connecticut is the least favorite among WNBA players. They hate it. Each team has had the same amount of time to prepare since Tuesday's game, but the Sun are in their own arena with their crowd and are used to this. The Liberty are all professional, yes. But Tuesday took its toll with plenty of emotion after Breanna Stewart was named MVP of the league, and the outside noise came pouring in, mostly for A'ja Wilson finishing third and receiving a fourth-place vote. If there was a game we'd see Alyssa Thomas - who took second place in the voting - shine for her team, it's going to be tonight at home in front of the beloved Sun fans. Don't forget, Connecticut is led by Coach of the Year Stephanie White and is the defending Eastern Conference champion. There is a lot of pride left on this team, and led by Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, they both know the importance of winning Game 3. Take the home dog.