Nelly’s Friday Night AL Division Delivery
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 09:53 AM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Detroit Tigers -105
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Tigers have won six of the past eight games with good scoring numbers. While it is of little consequence, the Tigers just passed up Cleveland for second place in the AL Central which they will hold if they win this final series with the Guardians. Cleveland is just 33-45 in road games this season and the Guardians have struggled down the stretch with a 3-6 run, allowing five or more runs in six of those games. The Guardians are also just 23-34 vs. left-handed starters this season. Detroit is 7-3 in this season series while +11 in scoring and the Tigers are 14-9 in September while +24 in scoring. Joey Wentz has a 3-12 record with a 6.45 ERA but he owns a much lower FIP and has pitched well in recent weeks, with a 4.50 ERA in his last six starts as he looks to be part of a promising rotation next season. Wentz has made a pair of excellent starts vs. Cleveland this season as well, allowing two runs and seven hits in nearly 11 innings. Cleveland is just 2-8 in the past 10 starts from Cal Quantrill as his charmed results from last season have been exposed with his ERA jumping from 3.38 in 2022 to 5.13 this season. Quantrill has a 5.2 K/9 for one of the worst strikeout rates of any MLB starter and while he has pitched well in September since returning from nearly two months on the IL, he has enjoyed a few favorable matchups while getting away with a .222 BABIP, as his xFIP is 5.59 next to his 1.95 ERA. The recent relief numbers are similar for these teams but in the past five game Detroit has a half-run edge in scoring while batting .256 and following an emotional home stand the Guardians aren’t likely to offer a high-end performance in Detroit to close a disappointing finish to the season.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
