Nelly’s Interleague Game of the Year 35-23 IL
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 09:53 AM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks -120
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Arizona is getting close to clinching a playoff spot and they have exactly what they want for Friday’s contest, Zac Gallen pitching at home. With the Marlins and Cubs still in range, this is the game Arizona should put forth a full effort with all relief options available to make the weekend a bit less stressful. Gallen has a 2.45 ERA at home this season and while his numbers have been less reliable down the stretch, likely conceding the NL Cy Young award, four of his last six starts have been on the road. Houston’s situation in the AL Wild Card race remains tenuous, as Seattle won last night to keep Houston at just a one-game lead for the final spot in the AL playoff field with Seattle having the potential tiebreaker. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams and Gallen beat Houston a year ago in Houston in a late season clash with Justin Verlander. Houston will lean on rookie J.P. France tonight who owns a 3.83 ERA but a 4.66 FIP. His K/9 is just 6.7 at the MLB level and his stuff hasn’t translated the way Houston had hoped given the big minor league strikeout numbers for France. The road numbers are good for France, but he has been trending in the wrong direction after posting good results in the first three months of the season. Arizona lost a winnable game yesterday in Chicago, but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 in the past 10 games with strong numbers from the offense and pitching staff. Houston did pick up two big wins in Seattle earlier this week but are only 3-6 in the past nine games with the pitching staff allowing six or more runs in five of those games including losing back-to-back starts from France. Arizona owns a 1.39 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and while Gallen starting tonight means he couldn’t pitch until Game 2 next week should Arizona make the playoffs, it makes sense for Arizona to do everything they can to win tonight and worry about the impact of the Wild Card series later. Houston is still only two games behind Texas for the AL West lead, with that potential tiebreaker in hand and with Verlander set to pitch tomorrow as the Astros have a lot at stake tonight as well but needed lengthy bullpen outings from its key relievers on Wednesday night and over the past five games Arizona is averaging 1.6 more runs per nine than Houston. Arizona grades as our #1 rated team in MLB over the past five games despite being just 3-2 as the production and opportunities have been there for better results as this team is doing everything right to play its way into the postseason.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
