TOM'S 14-0 ATS NCAA FRIDAY NIGHT SUPER PLAY
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Louisville vs NC State
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 06:45 AM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Nc State +3.5 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #114 NC STATE (+) over Louisville at 7 PM EST
After knocking off four cupcakes (Georgia Tech, Murray State, Indiana, and Boston College) in their last four games, Louisville will get a quick reality check when it travels to Carter-Finley Stadium to face NC State under the Friday night lights. The Wolfpack’s lone loss this season came in Raleigh to the tenth-ranked Fighting Irish, and they will be jacked up and ready to pull off this upset in primetime.
One thing you don’t want to do is fade head coach Dave Doeren and his troops in their ACC home opener. In this particular setting, the Pack hold a solid 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS record in their last seven tries. Also, when playing in its own backyard, NC State has been tough to beat posting a strong 17-2 SU (8-8 ATS) tally in their last 19 battles. If the Wolfpack are priced as an underdog or a favorite of -12 or less in this run, this team trend improves to an outstanding 13-1 SU and 7-4 ATS. Finally, at home lined up against an opponent that arrives off two or more straight up wins, Coach Doeren’s boys own a lucrative 22-13 ATS mark provided their foe arrives off a pointspread victory as well. In this situation fighting an undefeated foe, this team trend cruises to a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS.
Head coach Jeff Brohm has the Louisville offense firing on all cylinders. The Cardinals are averaging 43.0 points and 542.0 total yards per game. The problem with those numbers is the Redbirds assembled them against one of the softest schedules in all of college football. Matched up against a Wolfpack stop unit that has surrendered an average of only 21.8 points and 326.0 total yards per game, Louie will have trouble getting on track here. There is a strong angle that works against the Cardinals, too. As a guest checking in with confidence off two or more straight up wins, the Redbirds hold a horrible 14-30-1 ATS record in their last 45 tries including a disturbing 2-18-1 ATS if they exploded for 34 points or more in their last victory. With those two parameters live and Louie owning a team won/loss percentage of .700 or better, this technical situation crashes to a nasty 0-14-1 ATS.
The Wolfpack have played the tougher schedule and they’ll give the visiting Cardinals all they can handle and more. Take NC State. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
