Fargo's CFB Friday Enforcer (+$21,420 Run)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Louisville vs NC State
- Release Date
- 09/26/2023 11:37 AM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Nc State +3.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Friday Enforcer. NC State moved to 3-1 with a road win at Virginia last Friday and the Wolfpack head back home for their second true test. They lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in their only home game against an FBS opponent and that loss against the spread is part of their 0-4 ATS record on the season. That is adding value here with NC State coming in as the underdog at home. Intangibles can be looked at this point into the season and NC State has been great on third down as it has converted 51.6 percent on offense while allowing just a 30 percent conversion rate on defense and that 21.6 percent disparity is ninth most in the FBS. Conversely, Louisville is with a positive percentage but only 5.6 percent which is good for only No. 53. The schedule can certainly play a role in these but the ranking of the two teams is only 12 spots apart. The Cardinals are 4-0 but the schedule setup tells a lot. They rolled over Murray St. is their non-FBS game while they struggled to put away both Georgia Tech and Indiana which were both away from home and decided by a combined 12 points. Louisville did roll past Boston College last week but that was at home and it was a letdown game for the Eagles coming off a near upset against Florida St. The Cardinals first three FBS have been against teams ranked at least 30 spots lower in the power rankings than NC State. Louisville has done a great job running ball as it is averaging 237.2 ypg on 6.0 ypc but face a defense that is allowing just 114.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc so this is the Cardinals biggest test on that front. 10* (114) NC State Wolfpack
