PGA TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP TOP OVERLAY BET
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- CUSTOM
- Competition
- PGA Travelers Championship
- Release Date
- 06/22/2023 12:01 PM
- Event Date
- 06/22/2023 12:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Russell Henley versus Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props -120
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Los Angeles to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2022-23 season with 156 professionals competing for the $3.6 million prize for first place. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6852 yards, the course is the fourth shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected with the average score being under par for five straight years. The average winning score since 2016 has been 16 under par.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+3000 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Henley (7138) in Round One head-to-head prop versus Si Woo Kim (7137).
Henley comes off an impressive tie for 14th place at the US Open last week. He also finished fourth at the Masters earlier this year. After missing the cut at the PGA Championship last month, he rebounded with a pair of ties for 16th place at the Charles Schwab Challenge and then the Memorial Tournament. Henley has gained strokes versus the field with his irons in eight straight tournaments — and he has gained at least +1.31 strokes versus the field with his irons in half those events. He has also gained strokes versus the field with his putter in six of his last seven tournaments. Overall, he has seven top-20s in his last eight events. Henley leads the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — so the narrow fairways of about 30 yards in length should not pose a problem. He does sacrifice length for accuracy — but that leads to his performing well on shorter courses. His win on the PGA Tour in November at the World Wide Technology Championship was on a shorter course. He ranks eighth in the field in Adjusted Scoring on shorter courses in the last two years — and he is 11th in the field in over-performance relative to his baseline numbers on shorter courses in the last two years. Henley also has six top-20s in his last eight tournaments on courses designed by Pete Dye. He competed at this tournament five times with four made cuts and three top-20s headlined by a tie for 19th place in 2021. Eight of the last nine winners at this event had previously finished tied for 31st place or better. Furthermore, the last five times that the Travelers Championship followed up the US Open, the winner also competed at the US Open -- and the last three winners also finished T-13 or better at the US Open under those circumstances.
Henley is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim comes off a tie for 39th place at the US Open. And while this is his seventh trip to TPC River Highlands with his best showing being a tie for 11th place in 2020, he has missed the cut three times. Kim is a good ball-striker — but his putter can let him down as he ranks 113th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Henley (7138) versus Kim (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
