25* FA CUP MATCH OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- SOCCER
- Competition
- Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Time
- 06/03/2023 10:00 AM
- Bet Type
- Goal Line
- Pick
-
Manchester City -1 (-120)
(Consensus 3)
- Outcome
- Draw
- Analysis
- At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401) in the FA Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W5-D0-L0) reached the English FA Cup Finals with a 3-0 victory against Sheffield United on April 22nd. Manchester United (W5-D0-L0) joined them in the championship match the next day with a 0-0 match with Brighton and Hove Albion that the Red Devils on penalty kicks on April 23rd. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United enters this match on a four-game winning streak after a 2-1 win at home against Fulham that completed their English Premier League campaign on Sunday. The Red Devils qualified for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in third place in the EPL table with 75 points — but they still were far off from Man City who won the league title with 89 points. Man United was the second-best side (to the Cityzens) when playing at home. They won 15 of their 19 matches at home at Old Trafford with just one defeat in EPL action. They scored 36 goals at home in those 19 league matches while conceding just 10 times. They generated an impressive +24.88 net expected goal differential (xGD) when playing at home in those 19 EPL matches. But it was a different story for the Red Devils when they played on the road. Man United was just W8-D3-L8 on the road in the EPL this season — and they were outscored by 10 goals in those 19 contests. They only scored 22 goals in those 19 road matches — and they conceded 33 times. They have a -3.27 net xGD in those 19 road matches — and they ranked only six in the EPL in expected Points when playing on the road. While the Red Devils’ played elite-level defense at home in Old Trafford, they were middle of the pack on the road. Manager Erik Ten Hag’s side ranked only seventh in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected Goals Allowed this season. Even more troubling, Man United was beaten by seven of the other top-eight teams in the EPL table when playing on the road with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham being their best result. In these eight road matches, the Red Devils scored only eight goals while conceding 28 goals. Five of their losses to the top-nine sides were by multiple goals. Ten Hag’s team enters this match not at full strength with Anthony and Anthony Martial dealing with injuries. This leaves Man United lacking depth at the striker position which means Ten Hag will likely move Marcus Rashford to the #10 position despite his being more effective at wing. And here comes Man City rested and determined to pull off the rare treble. With the EPL title in hand, the Sky Blues look to take the FA Cup before playing for the UEFA Champions League title next Saturday against Inter Milan. Man City’s 25-match unbeaten streak was snapped last Sunday in a 1-0 loss at Brentford last Sunday to conclude their EPL campaign — but manager Pep Guardiola deplored a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury of already clinching the EPL title the week earlier. In FA Cup play, the Cityzens scored 17 times and did not concede a goal. Stefan Ortega will continue to serve as the team’s keeper in Cup action as he looks to continue his five-straight clean sheets streak. Frankly, he has been more reliable this year than Emerson who will get the start next week in the Champions League Finals. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their minds as well after losing to Man United at Old Trafford in the last match between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 14th. But the Cityzens have still won three of the last four matches between these two teams while outscoring them by a 12-4 goal margin. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
