Team Del Genio - Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

TDG’s NBA THURSDAY VEGAS O/U *JACKPOT*

Handicapper

Team Del Genio

League

NBA

Competition

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Time

05/25/2023 08:32 PM

Bet Type

Over / Under

Pick

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Under 215.5 (-110) (Caesars)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

Our 20* NBA Thursday Vegas O/U Jackpot is with the Miami/Boston under at 8:30 pm et. When the Boston Celtics have their backs against the wall, they tend to ratchet up their intensity on the defensive end of the court. Unfortunately for us, this did not happen on Sunday in the third game of the Eastern Conference finals when Miami made 19 of their 35 shots from 3-point land and 56.8% overall in a 128-102 victory. Yet trailing 0-3 in this series on Tuesday, the Celtics' defense finally showed up by holding the Heat to 43.6% shooting in their 116-99 upset victory on the road to keep their season alive. Miami missed 24 of their 32 shots from 3-point range in that game. Back home trailing by a 3-1 margin, Boston should continue to play harder on defense with their season still on the line. Last round in Game 5 at home against Philadelphia, they gave up 115 points on 50.6% shooting in a 12-point loss to put them on the brink of elimination in that series. They went on the road for Game 6 and held the 76ers to 86 points on 36.1% shooting in a nine-point victory. In Game 7 back at home, Boston kept their defensive focus by holding Philadelphia to 88 points on 37.3% shooting in a 24-point victory. Both those games finished under the number. The Celtics' reliance on their defense was on display in the Eastern Conference finals last year against the Heat as well. With the series tied at 2-2, Boston held Miami to 80 points on 31.6% shooting in a 13-point win. Up 3-2 and back at home, the Celtics let up again with the Heat scoring 111 points on 46.2% shooting in an 8-point upset victory. Traveling back to Miami for Game 7, Boston held the Heat to 96 points on 42.0% shooting in a four-point win. Both of these teams are dealing with injuries that will limit their scoring options tonight. It has been revealed that the Celtics’ Malcolm Brogdon has been slowed with a partial tear in the tendon in his right elbow. He is averaging 8.5 points per game in this series which is 6.4 points per game below his season average. Miami will be without Gabe Vincent tonight who has been their point guard in the playoffs. Vincent followed up his 29 points on Sunday in Game 3 with 17 more points in a losing effort on Tuesday. He is averaging 17.5 points per game in this series while making 58% of his shots and 50% of his 3-pointers. Kyle Lowry is dealing with an injury as well. Miami is running out of players with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo already out with injuries. The Heat have played thirteen of their last nineteen games under the number after playing a game when they did not score more than 100 points. Miami had made 44 of their 92 shots from 3-point land in the first three games in the series. Their 19 made 3s on Sunday was one shy of a franchise record in the playoffs. The Heat had made 50% or more of their 3-point shots five times this season, with two of those occasions occurring in this series. These are remarkable numbers from a team that was fourth from the bottom in the league in the regular season with a 34.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land who is playing without one of their best shooters given the injury to Herro. Yet after making only 25% of their 3-pointers on Tuesday, it looks like their shooting numbers are coming back to Earth, especially with Vincent now injured. Play the under. Good luck - Team Del Genio.