25* NHL THURSDAY ESPN O/U SPECIAL FEATURE
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NHL
- Competition
- Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars
- Time
- 05/25/2023 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars Under 5.5 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-9) has won five games in a row after their 4-0 shutout victory on the road against the Stars on Tuesday. Dallas (54-26-18) has lost three games in a row to fall behind 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Pete DeBoer pulled goalie Jake Oettinger after he gave up a third goal on just five shots early in the first period on Tuesday. Oettinger usually plays well after a loss. He had a 22-1-3 record in the regular season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage — and he has a .913 save percentage coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Stars have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Dallas’ attack will be undermanned tonight with Jamie Benn suspended for the next two games and Evgeni Dadonov doubtful with a lower-body injury. That decimates two-thirds of the Stars’ third forward line. Dadonov has four goals and six assists in 16 playoff games this season. But it is the loss of their captain Benn who is not taking accountability for his terrible play on Tuesday as he claimed that he regretted using his stick to brace his fall that simply inadvertently chocked Mark Stone’s neck on the ice. Benn scored 33 goals and added 45 assists in the regular season. He has three goals and eight assists in this postseason — and he plays on the Dallas power play. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 37 of their last 60 home games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games in the Western Conference Finals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Vegas has won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more of their last 21 games. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 34 of the shots he faced on Tuesday. He is playing with tremendous confidence after frustrating the Edmonton Oilers last round with their dynamic scorers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hill has a 1.96 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in seven games in these playoffs. He has generated +6.0 Goals Saved Above Expectation in the postseason. He has been helped by an aggressive Vegas defense that has blocked 266 shots in the playoffs, the second-most in the postseason. The Golden Knights have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. The Stars have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.
