- Analysis
- #955 SAN DIEGO RUN-LINE with Snell (-) over Washington with Irvin at 4:05 PM EST
Off the 5-3 road loss to the Nats yesterday, the Pads will extend the margin easily in the final game of this series. San Diego has three tough road games in the Bronx against the Pinstripes on deck and manager Bob Melvin and his boys can't afford to fall here.
Veteran left-hander Blake Snell will take the mound for the visitors, and he will have a serious chip on his shoulder. In his last start at home against the BoSox, No. 4 was slammed for six earned runs and five hits in just 4.0 innings. Blake fanned five, walked two, served up a pair of gopher balls, and was tagged with loss in the Padres 6-1 beatdown. Thankfully, with four career starts against the Nationals, Snell holds a respectable 2-0 mark with a strong 2.45 ERA.
Rookie right-hander Jake Irvin will make the fifth start of his career. With four outings in the bank against the Tigers, Mets, Giants, and Cubs, No. 74 was pummeled for 11 earned runs and 17 hits in 18.0 innings. Jake whiffed 15 and walked 12 on his way to a 1-2 tally with a soft 5.50 ERA. Nationals Park has been a problem for this greenhorn, too. At home, Irvin has been assaulted for 11 earned runs and 13 hits in 11.2 frames. That shakes down to an 0-2 mark with an elevated 8.49 ERA.
Several reliable team trends support this investment. San Diego has quietly won eight of its last 11 as a guest in this series and 12 of its last 16 on the road facing a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage less than .500. On the other side of the field, Washington has dropped 91 of its last 134 when playing in its own backyard, 63 of its last 90 coming off a win, 52 of its last 74 after scoring five runs or more last, and 38 of its last 52 when facing a southpaw.
Resting 5.0-games under the .500 mark and 8.0-games back from the top spot in the division, the Padres can't afford to lose to a Nats bunch that is the worst team in the NL East. Take San Diego on the run-line with Snell. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
