Nelly’s Thursday Night NL East Knockout
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
- Time
- 05/25/2023 07:20 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Phillies -105
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Phillies are still three games below .500 with a disappointing run in late May so far as this team has been streaky on the season. Philadelphia has scored 26 runs in the past five games but narrowly avoided a sweep to Arizona, getting a huge walk-off win on Wednesday. The Braves also avoided a sweep with a 4-3 win hosting the Dodgers to close a big series in the NL standings last night. The Braves also had a fortunate walk-off result in a game where Atlanta was out-hit 12-5 and Los Angeles had a 10-3 edge in at-bats with runners in scoring position. In contrast the Phillies were deserving victors last night with an 11-6 edge in hits. This is the first meeting between these teams since the Phillies knocked out the 2021 World Series champions out of the playoffs last October. Aaron Nola owns a career 3.49 ERA vs. the Braves in 188 innings and that doesn’t include allowing no earned runs in six innings in Game 3 of the NLDS last season. Philadelphia hasn’t been as productive vs. left-handers this season but rookie Dylan Dodd hasn’t appeared to have MLB-caliber stuff with a 4.1 K/9 and a 6.46 ERA in his three starts this season. He also has a 6.67 ERA in AAA this season and is only back with the Braves out of necessity this week with no off days in the schedule. Philadelphia owns slightly better relief pitching numbers for the season compared with the NL East leading Braves including the ninth lowest FIP in MLB the past two weeks compared to Atlanta being 21st. Nola is the far more reliable option on the mound and Atlanta is just 16-15 since late April while benefiting from an 11-4 record in one-run results on the season as the profile for Atlanta as a top NL contender deserves some skepticism.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
