Conference Finals Game 5 hosts coming off a win in Game 4 are just 4-10 ATS since 1995 as Boston is in a negative role at this price. Four of the past five instances the Game 5 host has won S/U but these teams are often overvalued. Generally, teams in this situation are more likely to be looking to close out the series rather than facing elimination like the Celtics are, but the Heat have proven that these teams are closer together than the season valuation. Boston is still live in this series despite no team ever completing a comeback from down 0-3, as they will be playing as a healthy favorite tonight before what will be another coin-flip Game 6 if they get there this weekend. Game 4 was much more competitive than the final with the Heat leading most of the first half and still in range early in the fourth quarter. Miami uncharacteristically had 16 turnovers and Boston finally had a game where they shot well, hitting over 51 percent including 40 percent from 3-point range. Credit the Celtics for a great second half performance and while this line is like the Game 1 and Game 2 prices in Boston, the Heat have proven they were undervalued as a team that barely even made the 16-team bracket and now stands as a team that has made the greatest #8 seed run in NBA history. Miami is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or more points this season and had covered in five straight meetings between these teams before falling short in Game 4. This is a big spread for any conference final game historically with underdogs of 8 or more in the conference finals on a 5-1 S/U and 5-1 ATS run since 2019 with Miami responsible for three of those wins in the past two seasons. After losing in seven games to Boston in the conference finals last season, this is the game the Heat need to lock down defensively to halt any momentum for the Celtics to get back in the series and the underdog covering for the fifth time in five games in this series in a lower-scoring game is the more probable outcome Thursday night.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.