- Analysis
- The Boston Celtics may have avoided disaster by taking Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals in Miami, but they still have a long way to go before they can convince anyone they’ll make it to the NBA Finals next week. The first step to that begins tonight when they return home to host the Heat in Game 5. The Celtics come in as the heavy favorite, but the Heat aren’t going to make this easy for them.
Miami, which has covered the spread in five of its last six games on the road (all postseason contests), looked a little flat on both ends of the floor in the 116-99 loss and will need to shoot it much better than the 44% from the floor and 25% from behind the 3-point line it produced last time out if it is to avoid a Game 6 back in Miami on Saturday. The good news through all this is that as a team, it has also covered five of its last six after an ATS loss.
The Heat, winners of 11 of its 15 postseason contests so far this year, were still able to take a positive from the defeat, as Jimmy Butler continued his run of stellar play by posting 29 points, nine rebounds and five assists, which is about right on par with his stat-line for this year’s playoffs, in general.
Meanwhile, Boston finally flipped the switch defensively in the Game 4 victory, to save its season for one more game at least, and returning to Boston here will definitely help where that is concerned. Skepticism still remains, however, considering it’s just 2-5 ATS of late, both following a straight-up win and after scoring 100 or more points in its last outing.
Just as important as the win itself, is the fact that the Celtics finally got a solid second half out of its leader, Jayson Tatum. After not scoring a single field goal in the fourth quarters of all three games of this series, the MVP candidate put up 25 of his game-high 33 points in the second half, 11 of which came in the final stanza, while connecting on 11 of his 15 shot attempts after halftime.
Ultimately, though, the Heat have covered the spread in four of their last five conference finals tilts, while Boston did the complete opposite by going 1-4 ATS under the same circumstances. The Celtics may have managed to temporarily swing momentum back to their side, but Miami has also covered the number in four of its last five meetings in Boston and is unbeaten ATS in each of its last five matchups with them overall. With homecourt in its favor, Boston just may win this one outright, but the Heat will undoubtedly cover the near double-digit points they’re getting, regardless of how this one finishes, so play accordingly.
