At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston. The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog. But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990. And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.