TOM'S 16-1 ATS NEARLY PERFECT SWEET 16 WAGER
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Gonzaga vs UCLA
- Time
- 03/23/2023 10:04 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Gonzaga +1.5 (-110)
(Consensus 3)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #641 GONZAGA (+) over UCLA at 9:45 PM EST
Off 11 consecutive straight up wins, Gonzaga will head into this Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA loaded with confidence and they are in the perfect position to pull off this upset. UCLA enters this NCAA Tournament matchup on a nearly perfect 14-1 SU run in its last 15 battles and this is going to be a tough spot for head coach Mick Cronin and the Bruins.
A quick look at the History Book shows that the Bulldogs have dominated this series lately inking a proud 5-2 SU and ATS record in the last seven meetings. Equally impressive, when priced as an underdog and hitting the hardwood with momentum off a straight up win, head coach Mark Few and his kids own a profitable 37-24 ATS record provided they hold a team won/loss percentage of .735 or better. In this situation fighting a foe that storms in off a straight up win, the 'Zags improve to a solid 34-21 ATS. Also, in the Big Dance priced as a pup and facing a foe that is not a No. 1 seed, Gonzaga carries a lucrative 8-3 ATS tally in its last 11 tries.
Surprisingly, this is not the best wagering situation for the Bruins. Since 1991, teams from the Pac 12 have struggled in the Sweet 16 posting a soft 22-33-1 ATS record. If our "play against" side is priced as a favorite or a short underdog of +2 or less, this Big Dance situation crumbles to a woeful 10-20 ATS. Additionally, when favored by running the floor with revenge from a season ago, UCLA has been at its financial worst posting a stiff 13-34 ATS mark including a shocking 3-18 ATS in this situation provided its opponent arrives with momentum off a straight up win. With those two parameters live and the Bruins facing a foe that owns a team won/loss percentage of .501 or higher, this team trend crashes to a disturbing 1-16 ATS. That spells trouble for Coach Cronin and his boys.
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bulldogs have assembled a phenomenal 154-15 SU record. Coach Few and his players are the best underdog on the board in the Sweet 16 and they'll pull off the upset here. Take Gonzaga. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
