25* CBB SWEET SIXTEEN GAME OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Gonzaga vs UCLA
- Release Date
- 03/23/2023 11:38 AM
- Event Date
- 03/23/2023 10:04 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Ucla -1.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (31-5) has won 14 of their last 15 games after their 68-63 victory against Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (30-5) has won 11 games in a row with their 84-81 victory against TCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): The first order of business in assessing UCLA for this game is taking stock of their injury situation. Freshman Jayden Clark is already out the season. Adem Bona missed two games in a row with a shoulder — but he did return to the court on Saturday to play 21 minutes (which is his typical usage). While he is listed as questionable, it is reasonable to assume that Bona can play again five days later. The primary importance for the 6’10 freshman is to play defense against Drew Timme — and an impaired shoulder does not impact his defensive effectiveness as much as it would if his shooting was needed tonight. David Singleton is also questionable after rolling his ankle late in Saturday’s game. Singleton claims that “I’m fine,” for what that is worth. It’s another Patrick Mahomes situation where are guessing at the severity of an ankle injury from television. Head coach Mick Cronin confirmed that the ankle is not broken. He probably plays but is not 100% (like Armando Bacot for North Carolina in last year’s National Championship Game). Singleton is a 6’4 senior who is the team’s best 3-point shooter — but he is still a secondary scorer. I waited until Thursday morning to confirm this play — and there is no morning update so it will likely be a game-time decision for both players. Even if both players do not play, Cronin still has answers with players who have been consistently in the rotation. Kenneth Nwuba is a 6’10 senior who played more minutes in the two games Bona recently missed. Freshman Dylan Andrews gets more time on the court if Singleton is out. The injuries are mounting, but I think the crisis point for Cronin is he loses one more rotation player (assuming Bona and Singleton do not play). The key players for this team remain Jaime Jaquez, Jr. and Tyger Campbell — if either of these players got hurt, it would be devastating. Jaquez, Jr. may be the best player in college basketball this season — and Campbell might be the best point guard in the country. So, let’s keep that perspective in mind. These two have now led the Bruins to their third straight Sweet Sixteen. UCLA will bring an elite defense into this game that is second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They allowed Northwestern to make 37.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread. Their outstanding defense helps them rank third in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing away from home. UCLA is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have scored 77 or more points in 11 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their vulnerability is on the other end of the court. Gonzaga ranks 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with the biggest problem being their half-court defense given their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51.7%, ranking 245th in the nation. It is this imbalance that often holds the Bulldogs back against their top competition — they are just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. I don’t like this matchup for head coach Mark Few’s team. Who will guard Jacquez? UCLA has multiple perimeter players who will likely frustrate the Zags. Furthermore, the Bruins’ elite transition defense will slow down the Gonzaga offensive attack and force them to execute in the half-court. Finally, while Timme leads a formidable frontcourt, the Bulldogs’ backcourt may get exposed in this matchup. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Cronin, Jaquez, and Campbell will all have revenge on their minds after losing in overtime to Gonzaga in the Final Four of the 2021 Big Dance. They then lost the rematch the following November to that Bulldogs team — but that group was probably better than Few’s team now with future NBA players Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard (and that 2020-21 team also had Jalen Suggs and Corey Krispert). Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Bruins have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.
