OSKEIM'S NCAA TOURNEY SWEET 16 GAME OF YEAR
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Michigan State vs Kansas State
- Time
- 03/23/2023 06:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Kansas State +2 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Kansas State has been undervalued all season as evidenced by its 23-11 ATS record, the best mark of any team left in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas State is once again being overlooked by the betting market as the Wildcats are poised to become the fifth team in the Sweet 16 (or later) to open as a favorite and close as the underdog since 2005. Kansas State is the only team in the Sweet 16 to be the lower seed but be listed as an underdog.
Since 2005, lower-seeded underdogs are 9-5 ATS in the Sweet 16, including a perfect 4-0 ATS since 2016. Since 2005, underdogs are a profitable 110-87-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Since 2015, Big Ten schools have gone 5-17 ATS (22.7%) in the NCAA Tournament versus Big 12 Conference and Pac-12 Conference opponents. Since 2007, Big Ten teams are just 27-37 SU and 24-37-3 ATS (39.3%) in the Sweet 16 round or later.
Kansas State head coach Jerome Tang has been reliable when getting 4-6 days to prepare for an opponent, going 9-5 ATS (64.3%) under those circumstances. The matchup is favorable for a Kansas State defense that struggles with rim protection. Over 70% of Michigan State’s shot attempts are mid-range 2s or from beyond the arc (shot share on Close Twos is only 29.1%, per Bart Torvik).
The Wildcats defend the perimeter well, limiting opponents to just 29.7% on three-point attempts, and are No. 19 in defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com. Kansas State’s defense has also been disruptive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, forcing Montana State and Kentucky to commit turnovers on 23% of their possessions.
The Wildcats are led by Markquis Nowell, who has recorded 44 points (43% 3-PT%), 23 assists and nine turnovers in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Kansas State shoots 75.7% from the foul line (47th-nationally) and ranks 48th in free throw rate. I also like the fact that Kansas State is converting 79.9% of its free throws on the road this season. Grab the inflated number with the Wildcats and invest with confidence.
