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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/08/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 08, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NFL, MLB, and EPL action.Week 5 in the NFL continues with 12 games. The Buffalo Bills play the Jacksonville Jaguars in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on the NFL Network at 9:30 AM ET as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Six NFL games kick off at 1 PM ET. The New England Patriots play at home against the New Orleans Saints as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 39. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 38. The Miami Dolphins are home against the New York Giants as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. The Detroit Lions host the Carolina Panthers as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 44. The Atlanta Falcons play at home against the Houston Texans as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5. The Tennessee Titans are in Indianapolis to play the Colts as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 43.5. Two NFL games start at 4:05 PM ET. The Cincinnati Bengals play in Arizona against the Cardinals as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 45. The Philadelphia Eagles visit Los Angeles to play the Rams as a 4-point road favorite, with a total of 50.5. Two more NFL games begin at 4:25 PM ET. The Kansas City Chiefs play in Minnesota to play the Vikings as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 52.5. The Denver Broncos are at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Sunday Night Football on NBC has the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Dallas Cowboys at 8:20 PM ET. The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Major League Baseball continues the postseason with two games on FS1 in the American League divisional round of the playoffs. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Texas Rangers at 4:07 PM ET. The Rangers won the opening game of this best-of-five series by a 3-2 score on Saturday. The Orioles tap Grayson Rodriguez to take the mound to face Texas’ Jordan Montgomery. Baltimore is a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The Houston Astros are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 8:03 PM ET. The Astros took Game 1 with a 6-4 win yesterday. Framber Valdez takes the ball for Houston to battle against Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Houston is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Matchweek 8 in the English Premier League concludes with four matches. Three matches start at 9 AM ET. Liverpool visit Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Newcastle United is at West Ham United on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Aston Villa plays at Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Arsenal hosts Manchester City at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/07/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Oct 07, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB,  CFL, and EPL action.The sixth week in NCAAF college football concludes with 43 games between FBS opponents. Six NCAAF games on national television kick off at noon ET. Wisconsin hosts Rutgers on Peacock as a 13-point favorite, with the total set at 44 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Texas battles Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on ABC as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 60.5. Toledo travels to Massachusetts on ESPNU as a 19-point road favorite with a total of 56. Army plays at home against Boston College on the CBS Sports Network as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Ohio State is at home against Maryland on Fox as a 19.5-point favorite with a total of 57. LSU plays at Missouri on ESPN as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 63.5. North Carolina State hosts Marshall on The CW at 2 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Three nationally-televised NCAAF games start at 3:30 PM ET. Navy plays at home against North Texas on the CBS Sports Network as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 61. Iowa is at home against Purdue on Peacock at 3:30 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 38.5. Alabama visits Texas A&M on CBS as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46. Central Florida is at Kansas on Fox as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 64. Georgia hosts Kentucky on ESPN at 7 PM ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Two more NCAAF games on national television begin at 7:30 PM ET. Notre Dame plays at Louisville on ABC as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 53.5. Michigan is at Minnesota on NBC as an 18.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46. Two more nationally-televised NCAAF games start at 8 PM ET. Boise State plays at home against San Jose State on the CBS Sports Network as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Texas Tech travels to Baylor on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 59.5. USC is at home against Arizona on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 21-point favorite with a total of 72. Major League Baseball continues the postseason with four opening games in the divisional round of the playoffs. Baltimore hosts Texas on FS1 at 1:03 PM ET. The Orioles tap Kyle Bradish to pitch against the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney. Baltimore is a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston plays at home against Minnesota on FS1 at 4:45 PM ET. Justin Verlander takes the ball for the Astros to face Bailey Ober for the Twins. Houston is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta is at home against Philadelphia on TBS at 6:07 PM ET. The Braves turn to Spencer Strider to duel against the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez. Atlanta is a -205 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks on TBS at 9:20 PM ET. Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for the Dodgers to face Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. Los Angeles is a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Week 18 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Saskatchewan Roughriders host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at 7 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5.Matchweek 8 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Tottenham plays at Luton Town on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Four more EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Chelsea is at Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Everton plays at home against Bournemouth as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Fulham is at home against Sheffield United as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Crystal Palace hosts Nottingham Forest on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Going for the Game 6 Gusto

by Tom Stryker

Friday, Oct 06, 2023

Believe it or not, we’re at the half-way point of the college football season.  There are a number of teams that will be playing in their sixth game.  For those schools that got off to a hot start, that might not mean much.  But, for a handful of programs that got out of the gate slowly, game six could be a critical one. If a team has a losing record after game five, there is a great deal for concern.  For the most part, these schools are in the heart of their conference schedule and wins aren’t going to come easily.  Suffering another loss at this point in the schedule only puts them further behind.  Of course, on the flip side, a solid win can bring a team in this setting back to respectability and turn things around in a hurry. This week’s system takes a look at those college programs that go into a game six setting with a 2-3 SU record.  Simple math tells you that 3-3 SU looks a heckuva lot better than 2-4 SU.  With that thinking in mind, I turned to the Team Stryker Database.  Here is what I discovered: Since 1980, PLAY ON any game six home favorite priced at -7.5 or more that owns a 2-3 SU record, provided their opponent holds a team won/loss percentage less than .800 and does NOT take the field off a blowout loss of 31 points or more.  43-Year ATS Record = 70-35-2 ATS for 66.7 percent  This Week’s Play’s = MISSISSIPPI STATE & BOISE STATE  Pretty simple, huh?  Here we have a team that is favored and hungry to get back to the .500 mark going up against an opponent that wasn’t seriously embarrassed in their last outing.  At the half-way point of the season, a school can rest comfortably with a 3-3 SU record.  It’s easy to turn things around with a mark like that.  However, a loss would drop a team down to 2-4 SU and getting back to .500 would take so much more.   There is one parameter that we can add to make this general system stronger.  If our “play on” side carries a pointspread won/loss percentage less than .500, this situation jumps to a money-making 40-15 ATS for 72.7 percent.  Both the Bulldogs and Broncos apply to this tightener.   Good luck with Mississippi State and Boise State this weekend.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF and CFL Previews and Odds - 10/06/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 06, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF and CFL action.The sixth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Kansas State travels to Oklahoma State on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Wildcats come off a 44-31 victory against Central Florida as a 6-point underdog back on September 23rd. Kansas State opened their season with wins at home against Southeast Missouri and Troy. In their first game on the road, they got upset at Missouri, 30-27, as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wildcats improved their record to 3-1 with their victory against the Knights two weeks ago. The Cowboys have lost two games in a row after a 34-27 loss at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog on September 23rd. Oklahoma State won their first two games with a victory at home against Central Arkansas before a win at Arizona State. They got upset at home against South Alabama, 33-7, as a 7-point favorite before a loss to the Cyclones that evened their record at 2-2. Kansas State beat Oklahoma State at home last season by a 48-0 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 29th. The Wildcats are an 11.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 53.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Illinois hosts Nebraska on FS1 at 8 PM ET. The Fighting Illini lost for the third time in their last four games after a 44-19 upset loss at Purdue as a 1-point road favorite last Saturday. Illinois opened their season by beating Toledo before two straight losses at Kansas and then at home against Penn State. They beat Florida Atlantic, 23-17, before losing last week to see their record drop to 2-3. The Cornhuskers had their two-game losing streak end in a 45-7 loss to Michigan as a 17.5-point underdog on Saturday. Nebraska kicked off their season with a loss at Minnesota before losing next week at Colorado. They got their season going with two straight victories against Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech before their loss to the Wolverines lowered their record to 2-3.The Fighting Illini won last season’s meeting between these teams in Lincoln, 26-9, as a 7.5-point favorite. Illinois is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 43.  Week 18 in the Canadian Football League begins with two games. The Toronto Argonauts play at home against the Edmonton Elks on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Argonauts had their six-game winning streak end in a 31-21 loss at Winnipeg last Friday. With a 12-2 record, Toronto has clinched first place in the East Division. The Elks had won two games in a row before a 37-29 loss to British Columbia as a 5.5-point underdog two Fridays ago on September 22nd. With four weeks left in the regular season, Edmonton remains alive to make the playoffs as they trail Saskatchewan for third place in the West Division by three games. Toronto is a 7-point favorite, with a total of 48.5. The British Columbia Lions are at home against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 10 PM ET. The Lions are on a four-game winning streak after a 33-26 victory against Saskatchewan as a 10-point favorite last Friday. The Blue Bombers have won two of three games after a 31-21 win against Toronto as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. These teams are in a tie for first place in the West Division. British Columbia is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5.

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Seattle Kraken 2023 Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

I've previewed the Vancouver Canucks, the Edmonton Oilers and the Calgary Flames. Sticking in the Pacific Division, now I'll take a look at the Seattle Kraken. The Kraken advanced to the second round of the playoffs last year, after upsetting Colorado in the opening round. Can they take the next step?Last season could only be described as a huge success. Seattle finished with 60 points (27-49-6 record) in 2021-22, its inaugural campaign. Last year, the Kraken jumped all the way to 46-28-8 and 100 points. That was good enough for fourth in the Pacific Division. That meant they had to face Colorado in the first round. No problem. The Kraken shocked the Avalanche in seven games. They very nearly beat the Stars in the next round, too. Dallas ultimately won Game 7. This season, the Kraken are projected to finish with 93.5 points. That number would have meant that they narrowly missed the playoffs last year. Despite the slightly lower expectations, the Kraken have pretty much the same group as last season. The general consensus seems to be that everything went right last year and that the Kraken may not be as fortunate. Also, after upsetting Colorado in the playoffs and improving by 40 points from their first season, the Kraken won't be sneaking up on teams any longer. I essentially concur. Its not easy to take such a huge jump and then to improve again the very next season. The Kraken had an impressive 26-11-4 record away from Seattle last year. With a bullseye on their backs, they likely won't match that mark this season. The Pacific Division is very competitive, too. Edmonton and Vegas are going to be good. Los Angeles will be, too. I've previously mentioned that I think Calgary and Vancouver will improve. Even San Jose and Anaheim are expected to be a little better. Not every team in the division can get better. The Kraken may be the odd one out. Look for the Kraken to take a step back. They'll still be competitive but I don't see them returning to the playoffs. Shop around for the best number and take a look at them to go under their projected number of regular season points ... Will Rogers

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NFL Week 5: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Through the quarter-pole of the season, there is only one team without an ATS loss.It's also the team that leapfrogged its way into the top spot this week.Per Stathead.com, the 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS.Nine other teams have three ATS wins. All at 3-1, we have the Buccaneers, Seahawks, Ravens, Titans, Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys, Cardinals and Bills.At the other end of the ATS standings, there are five teams that have not covered a game to date: Saints (0-2-2), Panthers (0-3-1), Bears (0-3-1), Broncos (0-3-1) and Giants (0-4).Let's get started with this week's rankings:THE UPPER TIER1. San Francisco (4-0) - Though the Cardinals made an early charge at the 49ers, the NFC West leaders were too much in the second half. I have them leapfrogging the Eagles and Chiefs for the top spot. Pressure is on boys. Sunday night's game against the Cowboys will tell us plenty about both teams. (Last week 3)2. Philadelphia (4-0) - I didn't mind dropping the Eagles one spot after seeing how they performed against the Commanders last week. I still think they might be the best of the NFC, but the Eagles have to show me much more now that they've faced quarterbacks  Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell to start the season. (Last week 1)3. Kansas City (3-1) - I also didn't have an issue dropping the Chiefs down one after it struggled against the Jets. So much for what I thought was an improved defense, as the Chiefs allowed 245 yards and two touchdowns to Wilson and 6.8 yards per carry on the ground. The champs can redeem themselves with dominating performances when it goes to Minnesota and then host the Broncos. (Last week 2)4. Buffalo (3-1) - Since a brutal four-interception introduction to the season against the Jets in Week 1, quarterback Josh Allen has completed 76.6% of his passes for 812 yards (8.6 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns, and just one interception. Maybe, just maybe, the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC. (Last week 5)5. Dallas (3-1) - As I expected, the loss to the Cardinals was a brief mental collapse for the Cowboys, who responded impressively with a blowout home win over the Patriots. This Sunday will be their biggest game of the season when they travel to San Francisco for the primetime game on Sunday. How will the 30th-ranked Red Zone team fare? (Last week 7)6. Miami (3-1) - Maybe I jumped the gun on calling the Dolphins the best team in the NFL last week. They lost by 28 in Buffalo, and I have to wonder where the offensive swagger disappeared to, especially when they averaged 6.8 yards per play. Vic Fangio needs to shore up that defense, which has now allowed the Chargers to score 36 and the Bills to put up 48. (Last week 4)7. Baltimore (3-1) - I'll give the Ravens a bump after last week's 28-3 win in Cleveland, but I'll also keep in mind they played the Browns with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center - not Deshaun Watson. How fortuitous, as they'll face the banged-up Steelers this week. (Last week 8)8. Seattle (3-1) - I still don't think the Seahawks would lose to the Rams if they replayed Week 1's clash. We saw Seattle's defense suffocate the Giants on Monday night, registering a whopping 11 sacks while allowing a mere three points. It's the type of defense we've become accustomed to with this team, not the unit we saw yield 30, 31, and 27 points to the Rams, Lions, and Panthers, respectively. (Last week 9)9. Detroit (3-1) - The Lions made a statement by going into Lambeau and dominating the Packers on Thursday night. I think it's clear at the quarter-pole of the season the NFC North, for now, is Detroit's to lose. Dan Campbell's D ranks fourth in yards per play allowed (4.5) and 12th in points per drive allowed (1.69). (Last week 10)10. L.A. Chargers (2-2) - The verdict remains out with the Bolts. They're on the fence of being a very good team or mediocre. And I can't tell if it's coaching or lack of direction. The latter, however, would indicate coaching. A bye week should help them get focused. (Last week 11)11. Jacksonville (2-2) - The Jags went across the pond and dismantled the Falcons in the Toy Story-themed game at Wembley. The Bills, on the other hand, are in London and there will be no toying around with that offense. (Last week 15)12. Tampa Bay (3-1) - The Buccaneers responded to their first loss of the season with an impressive win over the Saints. Quarterback Baker Mayfield can now use the bye week to tighten things up and improve from sixth among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play. (Last week 23)13. Cleveland (2-2) - Good thing for the Browns they have a bye week. Thompson-Robinson didn't get help from his offensive line, and was facing an upper-tier defense from Baltimore. The off week will help Watson get healthy. (Last week 12)14. Green Bay (2-2) - I thought the Packers might be more competitive against the Lions on Thursday, but to no avail. Jordan Love looks better each week, but the entire offense needs to gradually improve. Unfortunately, we're in the second quarter of the season and gradually may take too long. (Last week 13)15. Minnesota  (1-3) - The Vikings got their first win of the season, and the only reason they jump four spots is the teams around them have looked horrendous. If they can't get their running game going this week, it'll be back down the ladder after a loss to Kansas City. (Last week 19)16. N.Y. Jets (1-3) - Sinking quickly, I don't have anywhere to really put this team with the teams just behind also have losses. Thing is, it would be hard to punish this team after Zach Wilson completed 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two scores against a Kansas City defense that appeared to be stellar through Week 3. (Last week 14)THE LOWER TIER:17. Cincinnati (1-3) - Force the Bengals to beat you at this point, as I'm a bit in shock with this offense. (Last week 6)18. Pittsburgh (2-2) - With Kenny Pickett, this offense still needs help. Without Pickett, the offense is in big trouble. (Last week 16)19. New Orleans (2-2) - Once Alvin Kamara gets up to game speed and Derek Carr is 100 percent, I expect more from the Saints. (Last week 17)20. New England (1-3) - Is Bill Belichick still coach? (Last week 18)21. Denver (1-3) - Good, the Broncos earned their first win. Bad, the Broncos trailed No. 32 Chicago by 21 before doing so. (Last week 26)22. Tennessee (2-2) - The Titans should probably be higher, but they need to earn their ascension. We've seen two different Titans teams, at home and on the road. (Last week 27)23. Houston (2-2) - Okay, I see you C.J. Stroud. So you're the rookie who's going to make some noise. (Last week 28)24. L.A. Rams (2-2) - Another team I believe can be higher. Is Puka Nacua the most important player on the offense? (Last week 30)25. Washington (2-2) - The Eagles brought the Commanders down to earth last week. But they're still better than the Giants. (Last week 21)26. N.Y. Giants (1-3) - Speaking of which, things are looking awfully bleak with this team. (Last week 20)27. Atlanta (2-2) - On the fence where this team belongs after opening the season 2-0, and now 0-2 since. (Last week 22)28. Indianapolis (2-2) - Granted, the Colts were competitive against the Rams. But a loss in overtime drops Indy. (Last week 24)29. Arizona (1-3) - A loss to No. 1 San Francisco means the Cardinals will stay put at 29. They showed spunk early, but couldn't sustain. (Last week 29)30. Las Vegas (1-3) - They didn't make it a game in Inglewood, the Chargers took their foot off the gas. (Last week 25)31. Carolina (0-4) - Bryce Young returned to the offense. He shouldn't have. (Last week 31)32. Chicago (0-4) - The Bears found their offense, but couldn't hold on at home against Denver. Is this locker room unraveling? (Last week 32)

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Week 5 NFL Top 10 Poll

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Only two undefeated teams left.    1. San Francisco (4-0)  The San Francisco 49ers are a buzzsaw right now—and running Christian McCaffrey is the blade. and might have Dallas in trouble this week. They’re not perfect tho. Through four games, the Niners have allowed touchdowns on six of nine drives they've allowed to reach the red zone, a 66.7% rate that is tied for 23rd in the NFL. McCaffrey aside, the defense makes you earn every point. San Francisco is going to have a chance to notch a statement win Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys, and the way the Niners are playing, betting against them would be unwise. 2. Philadelphia (4-0) How about that Philadelphia vaulted defense says few? The Eagles are 27th in passing yards allowed (260.8 per game) and have yielded the third-most passing touchdowns with nine, trailing only the Broncos (13) and Bears (10). They still have Hurts to carry the team. Hurts threw for 319 yards and two touchdowns against Washington while adding 34 yards on the ground. At day's end winning is all that matters. And with the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets next up, there's an excellent chance the Eagles will be a perfect 6-0 when the Miami Dolphins come calling in Week 7. 3. Buffalo (3-1) Was that a statement game Buffalo game division foe Miami on Sunday? Bills quarterback Josh Allen authored that statement as the Buffalo quarterback threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another in a game the Bills controlled from start to finish. The Bills defense also had a say. As great as Allen was in Week 4, the Bills defense may have been even better. Buffalo held Miami's high-octane offense in check, forcing two turnovers and sacking Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa four times. The defense did receive bad news. On Monday, coach Sean McDermott announced that the former All-Pro cornerback White is out for the season with a torn right Achilles suffered in the team's win over the Miami Dolphins. 4. Dallas (3-1) The performance against Arizona in Week 3 still resonates: 222 yards allowed, 180 in the first half, 7.4 yards per carry. However, with dominant defense, the team went right back to blowing opponents out and gave New England thorough beating. The Cowboys surrendered just 253 yards of offense and 10 first downs against an overmatched Patriots team. Dallas forced three turnovers, returning two for touchdowns. In the Cowboys' three victories this season, they have waylaid opponents by a combined score of 108-13. But on Sunday we will find out just how good these Cowboys truly are. Week 5 brings with it a trip to Santa Clara to face the undefeated 49ers. The Cowboys know opponents will want to run on them each week, and San Francisco (No. 3 in rushing) is up next, with two games against Philadelphia (No. 2) in the near future.  5. Miami (3-1) The Bills are a significant hurdle if the Dolphins are ever going to be considered legit Super Bowl contenders. Last week, the Miami Dolphins scored the most points in a game since 1966 and racked up the second-most yards in a game in NFL history. The team was the talk of the NFL. Well, the Dolphins are once again one of the league's biggest stories—for a very different reason. Because in Week 4, it was the Miami defense's turn to be embarrassed. There are several problems that plague the Dolphins' defense, including its inability to get off the field on third down. Miami is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of their third-down attempts -- tied for the eighth-worst rate in the NFL. The 414 yards of offense Miami allowed isn't that gaudy a number. But not counting a kneel-down at the end of the first half, Buffalo scored on eight of its first nine possessions. They’re back to the drawing board.  6. Kansas City (3-1) After outlasting the New York Jets on Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 and where they usually are; all alone atop the AFC West. But these aren't the Chiefs of years past—and that's cause for some concern. The Chiefs have five takeaways, tied for 11th in the NFL. That's not good enough for a team that thrives on the pressure it puts on the opposing offense. Mahomes will be able to magically lead the Chiefs to victory despite a lack of passing-game weapons outside tight end Travis Kelce, a suspect offensive line and an average defense. And any team with Patrick Mahomes is a dangerous one. But many have doubts as to whether these Chiefs can get back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years. 7. Baltimore (3-1) Sunday's blowout win over the rival Cleveland Browns admittedly carries with it an asterisk as the Ravens pounded on a Browns team that was short both star running back Nick Chubb and starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. The question is whether these Ravens can hang with the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs and claim a spot as one of the AFC's true heavyweights. In the past two weeks, the Ravens have allowed three runs of 20 yards or longer -- only the Broncos and Cowboys have given up more in that span. The problem has been setting the edge with young outside linebackers. Or maybe they also have a problem on offense. Ravens topped 130 yards on the ground on Sunday but needed 40 carries to do so. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for four touchdowns but threw for less than 200 yards and averaged just three yards per carry. We could say that the Browns defense is that great or we will wait and see.  8. Seattle (3-1) Stopping the run has been the only thing Seattle's defense has done consistently well. Everything else has been downright poor, with the Seahawks' third-down defense standing out as the culprit. The Seahawks ranked second-to-last in third-down percentage, allowing opponents to convert more than 57% of the time. When the top contenders in the NFC are mentioned, it's almost always three teams; the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys. Putting the Seattle Seahawks in that company may be stretching things a little as they try to move up the ladder. Note that quarterback Geno Smith is out for four weeks. Against the Giants, the Seahawks tallied just 281 yards of offense and 13 first downs. Seattle converted just three of 12 third downs so they have ways to go. After struggling over the first three weeks of the season, the Seahawks defense was dominant against the Giants. Seattle harassed Daniel Jones incessantly, piling up a whopping 11 sacks. The Seahawks had three takeaways, including a 97-yard pick-six from rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The Seahawks will have the bye week and the team's other banged-up players to rest up. It may be a while before we know exactly how good these Seahawks are or not. They don't play a team with a winning record until a Week 9 trip to Baltimore. 9. Detroit (3-1) The team's last playoff win came all the way back in 1991 but yet, the Lions faithful are loud about this season. Few are laughing at these Lions now, not after they went into Lambeau Field and manhandled the Packers on the way to seizing first place in the NFC North. Here’s a roadblock to consider. The pass rush has certainly improved from the past two seasons, but the Lions' pass rush win rate is 32.3% through four games -- which ranks 29th in the league. The Lions have an outstanding offensive line and ground game. The defense is light-years better than last year's league-worst unit. And while Jared Goff may not be Patrick Mahomes, he's not Zach Wilson either. Here’s our final verdict:?Detroit is legit and the best team in the NFC North. 10. Tampa Bay (3-1) We love this! Baker Mayfield is back.Mayfield has led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 3-1 record and first place in the NFC South. Last week he threw three touchdown passes in a convincing win over the New Orleans Saints. Mayfield currently ranks sixth overall in quarterback efficiency. Instead of worrying who may be the team's next quarterback, the Bucs just may have found their guy. The Bucs' defense is giving up 17 points a game -- seventh best in the league. But it has given up 16 pass plays of 20 or more yards -- fourth worst in the NFL. There's also the matter of Tampa having played one really good team; a two-touchdown loss to the Eagles. But the Bucs head into the bye a first-place team with a week to get healthy before their second real test of the season; a home date against the first-place Detroit Lions. Their 3-1 start and a division lead in the NFC South are nothing to overlook. Mayfield has been everything the team hoped he'd be and more. 

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Week 5 College FB Observations: Rebels to Reckon With

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

I waited as long as I could to talk about UNLV, not wanting to turn to an easy subject for the lead of this column.But with all due respect to the rest of the nation - and smaller schools making headlines, such as James Madison or Jacksonville St. - the Rebels are becoming one of the best stories in college football.First-year coach Barry Odom has done a remarkable job in turning the program around, as UNLV is two games shy of becoming bowl-eligible with a 4-1 mark, the lone loss being a 35-7 defeat in Ann Arbor to second-ranked Michigan.In the four wins, however, the Rebels have scored 40 or more points in each, an average of 43.2 points per game.The high-scoring Rebs may have the 113th-ranked pass attack, but they've also played two quarterbacks after starter Doug Brumfield was injured early on. They've made up for it with a rushing game that averages 214 yards per game, 11th best in the nation, while averaging 5.19 yards per carry.Sure, last year's version of the Rebels was also 4-1, and went on to lose their next six games before winning the regular-season finale against Nevada, 27-22. Too little, too late, as coach Marcus Arroyo was shown the door and UNLV was left out of a bowl game for the ninth straight season and 21st time in 22 years.So what's different?Some have said it's Odom's demeanor with the players. Others have said his demeanor with those outside the program allows positivity to infiltrate his team as a whole. Many believe it's a combination of both.When you combine a massive culture change beginning with attitude and commitment, with an SEC-like atmosphere, and instill confidence, you're going to see change.Now, with a bye week upon them, the Rebels have time to decompress, soak up their success, and prepare for in-state rival Nevada on Oct. 14. Though the game is in Reno, their normally tough much-hated rival has been one of the worst teams in the nation.It's probably a good thing the Wolf Pack (0-5) are next on deck, as it'll reignite the Rebels out of their break for another trophy game - they just one the Pineapple Trophy with a win over Hawai'i - and will keep them focused rather than seeing them come out flat.The game to keep an eye on with this team is when it travels to Fresno State on Oct. 28. The Bulldogs are in the Top 25, and might normally see a cakewalk in UNLV. But the Rebels return home to play Colorado State after their game in Reno and could be heading to Fresno with a wealth of momentum. If I see double digits, I'm jumping on the dog.With seven games remaining, mark my words, the Rebels are going bowling under Odom.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 6:FOOTBALL GALORE - Beginning Wednesday, we can take solace in knowing there will be 49 consecutive days with either a college football or NFL game. That's FOURTY-NINE through Nov. 22. This week we got Conference USA, Big 12, and Big 10 weekday games, and the onslaught continues with C-USAction during the week until we get our annual dose of MACtion in November.RED RIVER FAREWELL - In the game of the week, we have a 5-0 Texas Longhorns team against a 5-0 Oklahoma Sooners squad in the teams' annual Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Only this year's version will meet for the final time as members of the Big 12. It's been the marquee matchup for the conference and dates to 1900. Yes, the rivalry will continue and will soon belong to the SEC, but Saturday will be historic considering both are undefeated in a year the complexion of the league will change after the season.Save for last year’s 49-0 win by Texas, the Red River Rivalry was decided by eight points or less in the eight previous meetings. Texas is currently -6 1/2 with a total of 60 1/2. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern.ROUGH START - Speaking of the Big 12, it's been a rude welcoming for the four newcomers, who are a combined 1-7 in conference action. The lone win was by BYU, which topped Cincinnati last week, 35-28. But other than that, it hasn't been pretty. After BYU, which is 1-1 in conference play, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are all 0-2.The Cougars, Cincinnati and Houston have byes this weekend, while UCF (3-2) travels to play at Kansas (4-1, 1-1) in a game the oddsmakers think might be a close one. The Knights are catching +1 1/2 from Kansas in the 4 p.m. eastern kick, with the total checking in at 65.CHALK CHECK-IN - Laying between 15 and 19 1/2 points paid off last week, as favorites in that range went 3-0. Across the regular board games, favorites got the best of the underdogs, going 29-22, with four pushes.Favorites dominated the low-chalk category, covering 15 of the 23 games with lines between 1 and 7 1/2, outside of a couple of pushes.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 5, favorites are 134-126 with the following breakdown:1-3 1/2 ............. 25-254-7 1/2 ............ 34-288-10 1/2 .......;.... 12-1111-14 1/2 .......... 20-1915-19 1/2 ........... 13-920 and up ...... 30-34

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VW's Weekly Recap: College FB Flop, NFL Prevails

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Time for the weekly recap, as I take a look back at the week that was.From last Tuesday, through Monday, I went on an 8-8-1 roll in every sport and was down -700. Always transparent.I finished 5-6-1 in both college and pro football during that stretch, with a horrendous college football week, going 1-4-1, including 0-2 with my lone plays of the month, losing two dogs on Syracuse and Florida.Overall, College Football still continues to be impressive since Week 0, as I brought a 16-12-1 run for +$2,870 net profit since Aug. 31 into this week.Breaking down favorites and dogs in college football, I am 2-3 with the underdogs I've released and am 13-7-2 with favorites.Sitting at 14-8-2 in the NFL, I'm now 6-3 with underdogs - all six victories winning outright.As for MLB action, a 2-1 week brought in $900 of net profit. Dating back, I brought a 64-55-1 run with $6,340 net profit into the postseason.The WNBA is approaching the Finals. Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend the games in Las Vegas, as credentialing becomes extremely tight when requests run through the league. But I've had my eyes on things, and will certainly have some action coming up.Last week I went 1-1 in the WNBA and nailed my Player Prop of the Year on A'ja Wilson's points prop against Dallas.Looking forward to a big week, with plenty of action in baseball, basketball and football.Be sure to check out my College Football observations and my NFL Power Rankings.Let's gear up for a big week of action.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 10/05/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL and NCAAF action.Week 5 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Commanders have lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. After recovering an Eagles’ fumble in the end zone in the second quarter, Washington went into halftime with a 17-10 lead. Trailing by a touchdown after A.J. Brown’s touchdown reception with just 1:43 left in the fourth quarter, Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell orchestrated a game-tying drive culminating with a 10-yard touchdown catch by Jahan Dotson. Head coach Ron Rivera chose to kick the extra point to force overtime rather than attempt a game-winning two-point conversion. The Eagles’ Jake Elliott kicked the game-winning 54-year field goal with 3:54 left in the overtime session. Howell completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the losing effort. The Bears remained winless this season in a 31-28 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago took a 28-7 lead at the 4:11 mark of the third quarter with quarterback Justin Fields' 2-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Herbert. Russell Wilson responded with two touchdown drives to pull the Broncos within seven points before forcing a Fields’ fumble on a naked bootleg that Jonathan Cooper scooped up for a game-tying 35-yard score. Fields led the Bears back down the field before head coach Matt Eberflus bypassed a short field goal attempt for a fourth-and-one opportunity, which they failed to convert. Denver went on to kick the game-winning 51-yard field goal with 1:41 left. After posting a perfect passer rating in the first half while completing 16 of 17 passes, Fields ended the game with 28 completions on 35 attempts for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and one interception. Washington is a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The sixth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Liberty plays at home against Sam Houston State on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Flames are unbeaten after four games this season after their 38-6 victory at Florida International as a 10-point favorite back on September 23rd. Quarterback Kaidon Salter completed 11 of 21 passes for 156 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding another 77 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team opened with victories at home against Bowling Green and New Mexico State before winning at Buffalo and FIU. The Bearkats are winless in their first four games after a 35-28 upset loss to Jacksonville State as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. After scoring only ten combined points in their first three games, senior quarterback Keegan Shoemaker completed 22 of 38 passes for 285 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception to lead Sam Houston State to 28 points in the losing effort. This contest is the Bearkats' fourth game away from home after losses at BYU, Air Force on a neutral field, and on the road at Houston. Liberty is a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Western Kentucky travels to Louisiana Tech on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Hilltoppers ended a two-game losing streak with a 31-10 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite last Thursday. Senior quarterback Austin Reed completed 30 of 52 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception in the win. Western Kentucky opened their season with wins at home against South Florida and Houston Baptist. They went on a two-game road trip where they lost at Ohio State, 63-10, before a 27-24 loss at Middle Troy. They raised their record to 3-2 with their win last week against the Blue Raiders. The Bulldogs ended a two-game losing streak with a 24-10 win at UTEP as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. With Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier out for a second-straight game with a shoulder injury, the junior quarterback completed 9 of 20 passes for 152 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions in the victory. Louisiana Tech began its season with a win at home against Florida International before losing on the road to SMU. They beat Northwestern State at home before losing at home to North Texans and then at Nebraska. The Bulldogs win against the Miners evened their record at 3-3.Western Kentucky is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 60.5.

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Calgary Flames 2023 Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

Last season didn't go as planned for the Calgary Flames. They often outplayed their opposition but still found a way to lose. Close games rarely went their way. They finished with 93 points, narrowly missing the playoffs. That's not good enough for Flames' fans, especially not with their northern neighbors thriving. Will things be any different this year? In terms of talent, the Flames are loaded. They were actually the only non-playoff team to score more goals than they allowed. Their biggest change comes behind the bench. Longtime coach Darryl Sutter is gone. Replacement Ryan Huska will help to change the culture and breathe new energy into the locker room. On paper, the Flames are solid in all areas. The defense is particularly strong. Goaltender Markstrom wasn't as good last season. For the team to really take the next step, he needs to return to the form he displayed in 2021-22. Markstrom started coming around at the end of last season and I'm expecting a bounce-back season.The Pacific Division is tough. The Flames are +828 to win it. Possible but unlikely. They're +1591 to win the West and +4339 to win the Cup. Stranger things have happened!  If you're looking to make a regular season o/u points prop play, the Flames are being projected to finish with 94.5 points. That's only slightly better than last season. It seems entirely reasonable that they can turn a few of the close losses into wins this year. I like their chances of finishing with 95 or more. That means a return to the postseason and that Calgary fans will get to enjoy playoff hockey.  Let's go Flames ... Will Rogers

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 10/04/23

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The sixth week in NCAAF college football begins with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee hosts Jacksonville State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Blue Raiders have lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. The Gamecocks have won two games in a row after a 35-28 victory in overtime at Sam Houston State on Thursday. Middle Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). New Mexico State plays at home against Florida International on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Aggies lost for the second time in their last three games in a 20-17 loss at Hawai’i as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd. The Golden Panthers were on a three-game winning streak before a 38-6 loss to Liberty as a 10-point underdog on September 23rd. New Mexico State is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.Major League Baseball continues its postseason with four games in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Texas Rangers on ABC at 3:08 PM ET. The Rangers took the opening game of this best-of-three series with their 4-0 victory on Tuesday. Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Rays to face Nathan Eovaldi for Texas. Tampa Bay is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN at 4:38 PM ET. The Twins seized a 1-0 lead in this series with a 3-1 victory yesterday. They turn to Sonny Gray to battle against the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. Minnesota is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET. The Diamondbacks have a 1-0 lead in this series with their 6-3 upset victory in Game 1 on Tuesday. Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers to pitch against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Miami Marlins on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Phillies have a 1-0 lead in this series after their 4-1 win yesterday. They tap Aaron Nola to duel against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. Philadelphia is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Matchday 2 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Atletico Madrid hosts Feyenoord as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Antwerp plays at home against Shakhtar Donetsk as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Lazio travels to Celtic on the CBS Sports Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. AC Milan plays at Borussia Dortmund in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Paris Saint-Germain is at Newcastle United in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Manchester City visits RB Leipzig as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Crvena Zvezda is at home against the Young Boys as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Barcelona plays at FC Porto as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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