Viktor Hovland's Ascendance Rewards Our Faith (and Our Pocketbooks)
After Viktor Hovland rewarded my faith in him by winning the PGA BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs three weeks ago, I was not going to jump off the bandwagon the next week at the Tour Championship. Hovland paid out tickets at +1600 odds at most spots for winning the BMW Championship. He was my Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds with him listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings to win the week (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we wanted the prop for best raw score this week). At the BMW Championship, Hovland followed up his Round Three of 65 with a Round Four of 61 with that nine-under score bolstered by his shooting a sensational 28 on the back nine — and under pressure. I had been bullish on Hovland since he settled for second place at the PGA Championship. Hovland had been remarkably consistent this season with 17 top-25 finishes in his last 22 events — and he has eight top-25s in his last nine tournaments. Hovland settled for a tie for 13th place at the British Open last month. He looked poised to take the next step in his career — and a Tour Championship would fit the bill. He finished tied for seventh place at the Masters after sharing the first-round lead. He was in a position to win the PGA Championship before a bad chip late in the final round cost him the title against Brooks Koepka as he settled for a tie for second place. Afterward, he had the look and the sound of a professional determined to do what was necessary to overcome his final obstacle. He was definitely not happy with simply coming close. Two weeks later, he won the difficult Memorial Championship in a playoff. He is getting better in clutch moments — and he adjusted his tactics that week by being less aggressive while focusing more on shot shaping to put himself in a better position to succeed. He did settle for 19th place at the US Open — his worst showing at a major championship this year. His weakness is Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 105th on the PGA Tour — although that represents an improvement in an area to which he has dedicated much practice time (and he ranked 128th in that metric going into his last tournament at the British Open). He was above average Around-the-Green — statistically — this summer which accounts for his moving up the ranking. He was clearly playing with more confidence with his chipping as evidenced by a couple of clutch shots on Sunday last week. Hovland was already one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked sixth on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last seven winners at East Lake had finished in the top-seven for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Overall, Hovland ranked third in the field by gaining +2.1 shots per round versus the field — and he was arguably the hottest golfer in the field going into the Tour Championship at the East Lake Country Club in Atlanta. It was his fourth trip to East Lake where he finished in fourth place two years ago. He started two strokes behind Scottie Scheffler in the adjusted scoring but quickly overcame that deficit after Round One. After a second round of 64 which was six-under par, Hovland seized a lead that he would never relent. He won the Tour Championship with an adjusted score of 27-under par — but winning the raw score for the week remained very much in doubt on Sunday. Xander Schauffele joined him in the final group in Round Four — and he shot 8-under for the round which was one better than Hovland. Schauffele settled for second place in the adjusted score at 22-under par. Hovland and Schauffele ended up tied for the week with a score of 261 which was 19-under par. But fortunately for us, Schauffele was our Best Bet for the week at +900 (DraftKings)— so we were able to cash that ticket along with our Viktor Hovland ticket (our Top Overlay Bet once again) at +1000 (DraftKings) to share those two dead heat winners at a +950 net payout. Cashing at +1600 odds and then the net +950 odds is a great way to end our golf season. We had seven 1st Place winners in 2023 after enduring three near-miss second-place finishes since cashing our Brooks Koepka tickets at 20-1 with his win at the PGA Championship. Hollywood Sports has 12 first-place winners in our last 43 PGA Tour Reports with regulars now enjoying over 63 weeks of free rolls where they can invest in the Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet, and Long Shot for 2024 and beyond!FYI: I do not handicap the fall PGA Tour events. I need the time for football and the pros tend to treat those events a little differently. My next Golf Report will be for the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first week of 2024, so on to January (in golf) ...Best of luck — Frank.
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