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NHL Off the Post: December 31st

by Sean Murphy

Saturday, Dec 31, 2022

As we get ready to ring in the New Year, Sean takes a quick look around the NHL at some news and notes that you can use in your daily handicapping.Consistency countsThe Boston Bruins head into 2023 staking claim as the best team in the NHL and they've done it with alarming consistency this season. As we flip the calendar page over to 2023 we'll note that the B's have yet to lose consecutive games this season. They avoided that fate again earlier this week as they followed up a 3-2 loss in Ottawa with a 3-1 victory over the Devils the next night in Newark. Of note, Boston will play on back-to-back nights on three different occasions in January. Up next is the Winter Classic showdown with Pittsburgh at Fenway Park on Monday.Crown themThe Los Angeles Kings have proven to be one of the more underrated teams in the league so far this season and they'll have a chance to head into January winners of seven of their last eight games with a winnable home game against the Flyers on tap on New Year's Eve. With seven of their next eight games coming at home, where they've gone 11-7 so far this season, the Kings have plenty of room to run as they look to ascend the Pacific Division rankings in January.Oil rushIn less than surprising news, the Edmonton Oilers have been one of the best 'over' bets in the league this season and certainly of late as they've seen seven of their last eight and 16 of their last 20 games sail 'over' the total. That's despite the fact that they've been held to three goals or less in five of their last seven contests. If Friday's seven-goal outburst in Seattle (without Leon Draisaitl) is any indication, this might only be the beginning and it's surely only a matter of time before we see a return to those '7's that were popping up in Oiler games earlier in the season. Shooting StarsThe Dallas Stars haven't dropped consecutive games since December 4th and 6th, going on an 8-3 tear over their last 11 contests. While they've been finding the back of the net on a regular basis, I've been more impressed by their defensive play, allowing two goals or less in eight of their last 10 games and giving up an average of just 2.8 goals per game on the season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 7-2-1 in Dallas last 10 games overall. Next up is a home game against the reeling Sharks on New Year's Eve before the Stars hit the road for a quick two-game jaunt to California (to face the Kings and Ducks). Fanning the FlamesWhile it's still too early to declare a winner in the Tkachuk-Huberdeau blockbuster trade from the Summer, the case can be made that both the Panthers and Flames have been worse off since that deal. While Calgary has won four of its last six games, it still owns a less than impressive 17-13-7 record on the season and you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Flames scored more than three goals. After hosting Vancouver on New Year's Eve Calgary will play six of its next seven games on the road. Perhaps that's not a bad thing as the Flames have managed to win four of their last five away from home. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 31, 2022

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.The college football bowl season continues with four games. Two games kick off a noon ET. Iowa plays Kentucky on ABC in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Hawkeyes had their four-game winning streak end in a 24-17 upset loss to Nebraska as an 11-point underdog on November 25th. The Wildcats ended a two-game losing streak with their 26-13 victory against Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite on November 26th. Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 31 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Alabama battles Kansas State on ESPN in the Sugar Bowl at the Caesars  Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Crimson Tide are on a three-game winning streak after a 49-27 victory against Auburn on November 26th. The Wildcats won their fourth straight game in a 31-28 victory in overtime against TCU in the Big 12 championship game on December 3rd. Alabama is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 56. Michigan faces TCU on ESPN at 4 PM ET in the first college football semifinals playoff game in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Wolverines continued their unbeaten season by beating Purdue, 43-22, as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten championship game. The Horned Frogs lost their first game of the season in their loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game. Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.Georgia goes against Ohio State in the second college football semifinals playoff game in the Peach Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs continued their perfect season with a 50-30 victory against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC championship game on December 3rd. The Buckeyes lost their first game of the year in a 45-23 upset loss to Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 62.5. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Los Angeles Clippers visit Indiana to play the Indiana Pacers at 3:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 230.5. Four more NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets play at Charlotte against the Hornets as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Cleveland Cavaliers are at Chicago against the Bulls as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.5. The New York Knicks travel to Houston to play the Rockets as a 5.5-point road favorite. The Dallas Mavericks play at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 7-point road favorite. Three NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 232.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play the Detroit Pistons as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Philadelphia 76ers are at Oklahoma City to play the Thunder as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 231. The Utah Jazz play at home against the Miami Heat at 9:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Two games drop the puck at 1:07 PM ET. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -250 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Columbus Bluejackets host the Chicago Blackhawks as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play at home against the Nashville Predators at 3:07 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games begin at 4:07 PM ET. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -215 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Washington Capitals host the Montreal Canadiens as a -275 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Arizona Coyotes at 5:07 PM ET as a -350 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild visit St. Louis to play the Blues at 6:07 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games start at 7:07 PM ET.  The Toronto Maple Leafs play at Colorado against the Avalanche as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Detroit Red Wings are at home against the Ottawa Senators as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars host the San Jose Sharks at 8:07 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Winnipeg Jets as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has six games on major national television. Two games tip off the televised NCAAB card at noon ET. UConn travels to Xavier on Fox as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 151. Kentucky hosts Louisville on CBS as a 23.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Duke plays at home against Florida State on ESPN2 as a 17.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Two televised NCAAB games start at 2 PM ET. Kansas is at home against Oklahoma State on CBS as a 10-point favorite with a total of 139. Arizona visits Arizona State on Fox at 2 PM ET as a 6-point road favorite with an over/under of 155. San Diego State plays at UNLV on CBS at 4 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 139.5. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League begins with six matches.  Manchester United is at Wolverhampton on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Four more EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Crystal Palace plays at Bournemouth in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Fulham hosts Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City is at home against Everton as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Leeds United on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Arsenal is at Brighton and Hove Albion on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 30, 2022

The Friday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.The college football bowl season continues with five games. North Carolina State plays Maryland on ESPN at noon ET in the Duke Mayo’s Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Wolfpack are a 1-point favorite, with the total set at 46.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). UCLA battles Pittsburgh on CBS at 2 PM ET in the Sun Bowl at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. The Bruins are a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 54. Notre Dame faces South Carolina on ESPN at 3:30 PM ET in the Gator Bowl at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. The Fighting Irish are a 3-point favorite with a total of 50.5. Ohio plays Wyoming at 4:30 PM ET in the Arizona Bowl at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. The Bobcats are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42. Tennessee goes against Clemson on ESPN at 8 PM ET in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Tigers are a 6-point favorite with a total of 63. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Washington Wizards travel to Orlando to play the Magic at 7:10 PM ET. Two more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Atlanta Hawks host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 7-point favorite. The Toronto Raptors play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 225. Two more NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls are at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 229.5. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Philadelphia 76ers at 8:40 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Denver Nuggets are at home against the Miami Heat at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 223.5. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Portland Trail Blazers play at Golden State as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 231. The Sacramento Kings host the Utah Jazz as a 3-point favorite with a total of 240. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. The Nashville Predators visit Anaheim to play the Ducks at 5:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Pittsburgh Penguins play at home against the New Jersey Devils at 7:07 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:37 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers travel to Seattle to play the Kraken at 10:07 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has one game on national television. USC plays at Washington on ESPN2 at 10 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League begins with two matches. West Ham United hosts Brentford on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 2.5. Liverpool plays at home against Leicester City at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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NHL Betting - The GIFT That Keeps on Giving

by Oskeim Sports

Thursday, Dec 29, 2022

Wouldn’t it be great if you could make a hockey wager and enjoy the gift of success each and every time? NHL betting does offer a GIFT but, like any other bet, it does not guarantee a victory every time. You might want to look into the GIFT as a part of a comprehensive hockey betting strategy. The GIFT, or Goals in First Ten, is a popular wagering option at many reputable sportsbooks. Bettors place bets on whether a goal will be scored in the first ten minutes of play. The goal can be scored by either team. Some sportsbooks also provide the NGFT, or No Goal First Ten, which is the opposite side of the GIFT wager. An NGFT wager is simply a bet that neither team will score in the opening ten minutes of a game. It’s a bet that is similar to MLB’s NRFI (No Runs First Inning) wager. Price of GIFT In roughly 58 percent of all games last NHL season, a goal was scored in the opening ten minutes. For the GIFT wager, that would translate to a price of -138. Of course, you need to add the juice and make adjustments for the combined offensive and defensive abilities of the two teams. Typically, the game total and GIFT odds are calculated together. It makes sense that the likelihood of a goal being scored in the first ten minutes of a game would rise if more goals are anticipated to be scored. Here are two examples from last season. Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers Total: 7 GIFT: -210 Both Edmonton and Florida were highly skilled offensive teams. The Panthers led the NHL in goals per game and the Oilers had the top two players in points for the season. The total in this game was set a little higher at 7. As a result, the odds on a goal in the first ten minutes are higher at -210. Again, more goals are anticipated making it more likely for one to be scored in the game’s first ten minutes. Vegas Golden Knights vs. New York Islanders Total: 5.5 GIFT: -130 The Islanders and Knights were two of the better defensive teams in the NHL last season. In terms of goals against per game, both teams were among the top-5 in the league. The total being set at 5.5 is a result of that. A goal within the first ten minutes is less likely because fewer goals are anticipated. The GIFT odds correspond at -130. The GIFT Rules The GIFT is typically counted from 0:00 to 9:59 of the first period at most sportsbooks. A bet is considered a loss if a goal is scored at precisely the 10:00 mark of the first period. The GIFT bet can be found in various places at different sportsbooks. Some will list the GIFT in the “Periods” section. Other sportsbooks will list the GIFT wager under a different heading, such as Popular Bets. In some books, you can even place a wager on a goal within the first five minutes (GIFF).Betting the GIFT The average number of goals scored by a team in an NHL game is 3.16. The average for the entire previous season was 3.14. Thus, an NHL game will typically feature 6.3 goals. Scores haven’t been this high in a very long time. The last time teams averaged 3.14 goals per game was in 1995–96. In just 17% of NHL games from last season, the first period featured no goals. The league average for the last 15 NHL seasons is 19%. Thus, first-period goals were scored in 81% of NHL games. GIFT odds have been adjusted in response to the increased scoring over the previous two seasons. The top teams in terms of GIFT bets so far in 2022–23 are Vancouver (23–8), Calgary (24–9), Buffalo (23–9), and Ottawa (23–9). At least 71% of the time, a goal was scored by each team in the opening ten minutes of a game. It’s interesting to note that in every Vancouver away game, the GIFT bet was a winner.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 29, 2022

The Thursday sports card features action in the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB.Week 17 in the National Football League kicks off with one game. The Dallas Cowboys travel to Tennessee to play the Titans on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Cowboys won for the fifth time in their last six games with a 40-34 victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Titans lost their fifth straight game in a 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas is a 12.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 39.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).  The college football bowl season continues with three games on ESPN. Minnesota plays Syracuse at 2 PM ET in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York City. The Golden Gophers won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 23-16 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on November 26th. The Orange ended a five-game losing streak with a 32-23 victory at Boston College as a 10.5-point favorite on November 26th. Minnesota is an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 44. Florida State battles Oklahoma at 5:30 PM ET in the Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Seminoles are on a five-game winning streak after a 45-38 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on November 25th. The Sooners lost for the third time in their last four games in a 51-48 upset loss in overtime at Texas Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on November 26th. Florida State is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 65. Texas faces Washington at 9 PM ET at the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, Texas. The Longhorns won for the third time in their last four games with a 38-27 victory against Baylor as a 10-point favorite on November 25th. The Huskies have won six straight games after a 51-33 victory at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 26th. Texas is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 67.5. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Charlotte Hornets host the Oklahoma City Thunder as a 1-point favorite. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Indiana to play the Pacers as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 224.  Two NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. The Memphis Grizzlies are at Toronto against the Raptors as a 2-point road favorite. The New York Knicks visit San Antonio to play the Spurs at 8:10 PM ET as a 5-point road favorite. The Dallas Mavericks are at home against the Houston Texans at 8:40 PM ET as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 222. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for four games. The Buffalo Sabres host the Detroit Red Wings as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -285 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning is at home against the New York Rangers as a -140 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Washington Capitals host the Ottawa Senators as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets at 7:37 PM ET as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Three more NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET. The St. Louis Blues are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -260 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild host the Dallas Stars as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 9:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche are at home against the Los Angeles Kings as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -295 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The San Jose Sharks host the Philadelphia Flyers at 10:37 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has nine games on national television. Butler plays at home against Providence on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Two more NCAAB games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Maryland is at home against Maryland-Baltimore County on ESPNU as a 17-point favorite at Caesars with an over/under of 146. Hofstra plays at Delaware on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 146. DePaul hosts Georgetown on FS2 at 8 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Illinois plays at home against Bethune-Cookman on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 30-point favorite at Caesars with a total of 143.5. Three NCAAB games start at 9 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against Tulane on ESPN2 as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152. Drake hosts Valparaiso on the CBS Sports Network as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 140. UC Santa Barbara plays at Cal-State Fullerton on ESPNU as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 128. Stanford is at home against Colorado on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 140. 

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The Late Season Surging Los Angeles Chargers Defense

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022

The Los Angeles Chargers are playing their best defense in the two seasons under head coach Brandon Staley, just in time for the playoffs next month. The improved play may be due to the players-only meetings instigated that started earlier in December. When noticing that the defense was allowing opposing rushers to average 5.44 yards per carry, veteran linebacker Kyle Van Noy called a players-only meeting on the Thursday before their game with the Las Vegas Raiders. The results were not immediate. The Chargers lost that game, 27-20, with Josh Jacobs running the ball 26 times for 144 yards. Yet the players decided to make the players-only meeting a weekly event three days before game day (usually Thursday after practice, with the players-only meeting taking place on Friday last week due to the Monday night kickoff). Before that Monday night game in Indianapolis against the Colts, the numbers were indicating that the Chargers’ defense had begun to turn things around. They had allowed only 31 points in their two previous games with those opponents averaging only 251.5 total yards per game. They are still giving up 4.76 yards per carry, a modest improvement, yet their last two opponents have averaged only 109.5 rushing yards per game. The results against the pass have been much better as they have held their last two opponents to 141 passing yards per game. The defense has been hit hard by injuries, yet they are starting to get healthy again. Safety Derwin James played on Monday for the first time since week 13 (only briefly before being kicked out of the game for an illegal hit). The Chargers got back cornerback Bryce Callahan and defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day as well after all three players took part in practice and had their names removed from the injured list last week. That bodes well for them in the days ahead. Los Angeles may have then played their best defensive game of the season in a 20-3  victory against the Colts on Monday. The Chargers held Indianapolis to just the one field goal and only ten first downs. Indianapolis managed to gain only 173 total yards of offense. Nick Foles was making his first start of the season for the Colts, and the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback completed 17 of 29 passes but for only 143 yards. Los Angeles picked off three of his passes. The Chargers held Indianapolis to only 69 rushing yards from their 14 carries. While that 4.93 yards per carry average for the Colts is not great from an efficiency standpoint, holding Indianapolis to below 70 rushing yards continues their recent ability to get their defense off the field. The Colts were on offense for just 26:06 minutes in the game. Los Angeles has now held their last three opponents to just 11.3 points per game and 225.3 yards per game. These opponents averaged only 4.7 yards per play. Their opponents are still averaging 4.8 yards per carry in the running game, yet they are only running the ball 20 times per game and getting 96 yards per game from their rushing attack. Perhaps most importantly, despite having their defense on the field for 29:45 minutes per game this season, the Chargers have lowered that number by almost three minutes per game by being on the field for only 25:53 minutes per game in these most recent three games. Whether it is because of the schemes of Staley and his defensive coaching staff or the increased accountability of the players on defense, the Chargers' defense is finally starting to meet the expectations from when they hired Staley away from the Rams when he was their defensive coordinator. With a healthy Derwin James running the defense (and Joey Bosa expected to get healthy and back on the field soon) and Justin Herbert lurking on offense, it is this Los Angeles team this season that has the makings of a potential deep run in the playoffs.Good luck - TDG.

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A Case for Ohio State to Win the National Championship

by Oskeim Sports

Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022

As a result of Utah's resounding 47-24 victory over the then-No. 4-ranked USC Trojans in the Pac-12 championship game, Ohio State took the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes could win it all. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day wasted little time in letting the college football world know what to expect from his team. There are those that will scrutinize Day and the Buckeyes for backing into the playoff. Remember, the Buckeyes were demoralized by rival Michigan in the final regular-season game.  Still, the Buckeyes can win it all. Here are five reasons why. C.J. Stroud The Buckeyes quarterback was a Heisman Trophy finalist for the second consecutive season. He was the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year as well as the Quarterback of the Year. Stroud could declare for the NFL draft after the CFP, which would give him even more reason to lead one of the nation’s best offenses. Ohio State totaled 492.7 yards of offense per game, which was eighth in the nation. The Buckeyes scored 44.5 points per game, which was good for second behind Tennessee. Stroud threw for 3,340 yards and 37 touchdowns. He took the Michigan loss personally and would love to make up for not getting his team a Big Ten championship. Improved RB Health Ohio State's running game suffered as a result of nagging injuries to both Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson did not play in the Michigan game. Williams attempted to play but was clearly limited. With the extended break leading up to the semifinal on December 31, both players will have had ample time to recover and be as close to 100% as possible. Their presence would add yet another element to this already effective offense because both ball carriers have demonstrated their ability to make a difference. Forgotten Special Teams The Buckeyes have two excellent specialists in kicker Noah Ruggles and punter Jesse Mirco, two positions that are frequently overlooked by teams. Ruggles has made 69-of-70 extra point attempts and 15-of-17 field goal attempts, with a long of 47 yards. Micro has made 44 punts in all, averaging nearly 45 yards each, with a long of 77 yards. In a high-profile game where field position could be crucial, Day has two players who will perform admirably if needed in a playoff game. Run Defense Many might laugh after the Buckeyes got torched for 252 rushing yards by Michigan, but the Buckeyes are actually one of the better run defenses in the nation. Ohio State has a top-25 run defense that allows 120 yards per game and has allowed a total of 10 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. In spite of having some personnel issues, the Buckeyes are only allowing 3.4 yards per carry. LB Tommy Eichenberg has persevered despite having two broken hands leading the team with 112 tackles. Similar to the running backs, the defense should have time to recover and work out any kinks in their assignments and communication during the break before the semifinal. The Motivation Factor No playoff team lacks motivation, but it's unlikely that the other teams are subject to the same level of scorn and mockery as the Buckeyes. They are viewed as being unworthy of the invitation to the CFP. Both Day and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles have something to prove. Ohio State’s players will take advantage of the hostility being directed at them by the doubters. What’s interesting is the Buckeyes are a 7-point underdog in their semifinal against No. 1 seed Georgia. Ohio State is listed at +350 to win it all. TCU has the longest odds at +1600.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 28, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.The college football bowl season continues with four games. Duke plays Central Florida on ESPN at 2 PM ET in the Military Bowl at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. The Blue Devils have won four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset victory against Wake Forest as a 3-point underdog on November 26th. The Knights lost for the second time in their last three games in a 45-28 loss at Tulane as a 3.5-point underdog in the American Athletic Conference championship game on December 3rd. Duke is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 62 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Arkansas battles Kansas on ESPN at 5:30 PM ET in the Liberty Bowl at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. The Razorbacks have lost three of their last four games after a 29-27 upset loss at Missouri as a 3-point favorite on November 25th. The Jayhawks have lost three games in a row after a 47-46 loss at Kansas State as an 11.5-point underdog on November 26th. Arkansas is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 69. Oregon goes against North Carolina on Fox at 8 PM ET in the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in San Diego. The Ducks have lost two of their last three games with a 38-34 loss at Oregon State as a 1-point underdog on November 26th. The Tar Heels are on a three-game losing streak after getting beat by Clemson, 39-10, in the ACC championship game as a 7-point underdog on December 3rd. Oregon is a 13-point favorite with a total of 75. Mississippi faces Texas Tech on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Rebels are on a three-game losing streak after losing to Mississippi State, 24-22, as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. The Red Raiders are on a three-game winning streak after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. Mississippi is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 71. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Orlando Magic visit Detroit to play the Pistons as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 229. The Phoenix Suns play at Washington against the Wizards as a 1-point road favorite. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets are in Atlanta against the Hawks as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Miami Heat host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 7-point favorite.Two NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Chicago to play the Bulls as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 233. Two games complete the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Utah Jazz are at Golden State as a 3-point road favorite. The Denver Nuggets play at Sacramento against the Kings as a 2-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 7:07 PM ET as a -345 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 7:37 PM ET. The Pittsburgh Penguins host the Detroit Red Wings on TNT as a -195 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins visit New Jersey to play the Devils, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6.5. Two games complete the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Calgary Flames play at Seattle against the Kraken, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights are at Anaheim against the Ducks on TNT as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has ten games on national television. UNC-Wilmington travels to Monmouth on the CBS Sports Network at 5 PM ET as an 11.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 134.5. UConn plays at home against Villanova on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 137. Three more NCAAB games tip off at 7 PM ET. Auburn is at home against Florida on ESPN2 as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Davidson plays at Fordham on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 142. Samford is at home against Mercer on ESPNU as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Three NCAAB games start at 9 PM ET. Arkansas is at LSU on ESPN2 as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Xavier visits St. John’s on FS1 as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 160.5. New Mexico hosts Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Two more games conclude the NCAAB card at 11 PM ET. Fresno State plays at home against Wyoming as a 1-point favorite with a total of 127. San Diego State is at home against Air Force on FS1 as an 18-point favorite with an over/under of 129. Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. Manchester City plays at Leeds United as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 3.5. 

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Have We Already Seen a Preview of the Super Bowl?

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022

Ever heard someone say (or write), "a preview of the Super Bowl in a regular season game" when describing an upcoming game?During the Super Bowl era, it's happened 14 times, the last being during the 2020-21 season, when the Kansas City Chiefs won the regular season meeting 27-24 but were stymied by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a 31–9 Super Bowl destruction.Prior to that, it happened during the 2011 season, when the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in both the regular season and the Super Bowl.It's only happened three times this century, with New York and New England also meeting two times in 2007, and the Rams and Patriots playing twice in 2001.It's Week 17 of the NFL season, and every team has two games left. I don't believe there is one game over the last two weeks anyone would consider a Super Bowl preview, so I took a look at my top three teams in both the AFC and NFC, peeped their schedules to date, and tried to find a potential preview they may have already played.Ironically, five of those six rank one through five with their scoring offenses: Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Two of them rank one and two with their scoring defenses: San Francisco and the Bills.The 49ERS and the CHIEFS met in Week 7 at Arrowhead Stadium, a game that turned out well for Kansas City in a 44-23 rout. While the Niners generated 444 yards of offense, it also committed three turnovers. Their defense allowed Kansas City to gain 529 yards, including 417 through the air. Since that game, though, the 49ers haven't allowed more than a total of 349 yards to eight different teams. To that point, Frisco had committed 12 turnovers, thrice committing three in one game. Since then, the Niners have committed only four turnovers. Kansas City has just one loss since then, at Cincinnati, a monster the Chiefs will have to solve if they face them in the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs' offense generated an average of 382.3 yards and 29.8 points per game through their first six contests; since the 49ers meeting, they've averaged a whopping 446.1 yards and 28.7 points per game.We got an early indication of just how good the COWBOYS' defense might be when they hosted the BENGALS in Week 2 and came away with a 20-17 victory. It was the second-lowest output for Cincinnati this season. It wouldn't shock me to see this reunion in February, as both have shown me something late in the season. The Bengals head into their Week 17 battle with Buffalo riding a seven-game win streak, and it's been their stifling defense that has me tuned in. That includes shutting down Kansas City's potent offense in Week 13, during a 27-24 win. If the Bengals knock off Buffalo this Sunday, I make them the favorite to win the AFC, hands down. Dallas clearly took the Jaguars for granted in Week 15, as we've seen Jacksonville emerge atop the AFC South, it's not that bad of a loss. The big win over Philadelphia spoke volumes about what that offense is capable of. The Cowboys rank third in the NFL with 28.9 points per game, behind Philly and Kansas City.The only realistic preview we've seen from the BILLS during the regular season would be a Week 10 home game against the Minnesota Vikings. Of course, I don't consider the Vikes to be a top 3 team, so I'll concentrate on what we saw in that game, and since, from the Bills. It was an epic overtime game the Vikings stole, 33-30. The Bills haven't lost since, and we'll see what they're made of this weekend in Cincinnati, where they'll face the defending conference champion Bengals. Buffalo has won six in a row behind its potent offense, averaging 28.3 points per game. But truth be told, albeit, against a rather shoddy slate, the Bills' defense has been rather impressive for the most part. The Bills allow the second-fewest points per game (17.5) while the opposition ends offensive drives with a score just 30.8% of the time, the third-lowest in the NFL. I'm not sold on Buffalo's schedule strength, so if it runs into a solid defense, things could end quickly for the Bills in the postseason.It doesn't surprise me that the odd team out is the EAGLES, who I feel have played the weakest schedule among the NFL contenders on the whole. Per teamrankings.com, Philly has played the fourth-weakest schedule, with Frisco two spots lower at 31st. But to the 49ers' credit, they've been as high as the ninth-toughest schedule on the scale, whereas Philly has never been higher as 15th, and has been as low as 32nd.So which of the matchups mentioned do I believe makes the most sense?Cincinnati vs. Dallas on Feb. 12, 2023.See you in Glendale.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/27/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 27, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.The college football bowl season continues with four games on ESPN. Georgia Southern plays Buffalo at noon ET in the Camellia Bowl at the Cramton Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama. The Eagles ended a three-game losing streak with a 51-48 upset win in overtime against Appalachian State as a 6.5-point underdog on November 26th. The Bulls ended a three-game losing streak with a 23-22 win against Akron as a 12-point favorite on December 2nd. Georgia Southern is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 67 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Memphis battles Utah State at 3:15 PM ET in the First Responder Bowl at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Tigers’ two-game winning streak ended in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog on November 26th. The Aggies’ three-game winning streak ended in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 58.5. Coastal Carolina faces East Carolina at 6:45 PM ET in the Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama. The Chanticleers are on a two-game losing streak after their 45-25 loss to Troy as an 8-point underdog in the Conference USA championship game on December 3rd. The Pirates ended a two-game losing streak with a 49-46 win at Temple as a 9.5-point favorite on November 26th. East Carolina is a 7-point favorite with a total of 65. Wisconsin goes against Oklahoma State at 10:15 PM ET in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Badgers lost for the second time in three games in a 23-16 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on November 26th. The Cowboys lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 24-19 upset loss to West Virginia as a 5-point favorite on November 26th. Wisconsin is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Orlando Magic host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4-point favorite with a total of 235. The Philadelphia 76ers visit Washington to play the Wizards as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 222. Three more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Houston Rockets as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 232. The Indiana Pacers are at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 1-point favorite. The Toronto Raptors host the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5-point favorite. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 6.5-point favorite. The Oklahoma City Thunder are at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. The Dallas Mavericks host the New York Knicks at 8:40 PM ET as a 5-point favorite. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 4-point favorite. The Denver Nuggets are at Sacramento against the Kings as a 3-point road favorite. The National Hockey League returns with 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for three games. The Carolina Hurricanes host the Chicago Blackhawks as a -425 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Rangers are at home against the Washington Capitals as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Boston Bruins travel to Ottawa to play the Senators as a -195 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play in New York against the Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Three NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. The Dallas Stars are at Nashville against the Predators as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild visit Winnipeg to play the Jets as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at St. Louis against the Blues as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche are at Arizona against the Coyotes as a -240 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Calgary Flames host the Edmonton Oilers as a -145 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the San Jose Sharks at 10:07 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 10:37 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6.The college basketball schedule has one game on national television. Marquette hosts Seton Hall on FS1 at 8 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Chelsea plays at home against Bournemouth on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Manchester United is at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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Handicapping the NFL's Penultimate Week

by Al McMordie

Monday, Dec 26, 2022

There are two weeks to go in this NFL regular season.  But handicapping each of these weeks is fraught with challenges.  Some teams have already clinched a playoff berth; others are still fighting to get in; and yet others have already been eliminated.  But unlike the final week of the regular season, the penultimate (i.e., "next-to-last") week sees much less sitting of players to avoid injury (which is why Fantasy leagues play their championship in the penultimate week).Let's take a look at the point spread data from 1980 thru 2021 for the penultimate week.  There have been 633 games played.First, let's take a look at the Over/Unders.  The edge goes to the Unders.  They've gone 326-289-18 (53.0%).Now, let's review the data for the Sides.Underdogs have the decisive edge.  In the next-to-last week, the pups have barked loudly, with a 338-270-17 ATS record (55.5%).  Broken down, home underdogs have gone 120-87-7 ATS (57.9%), while road dogs have gone 218-183-10 ATS (54.3%).In matchups between winning teams, the home team has gone 68-57-2 ATS (54.4%).In matchups between losing teams, the home team has gone 57-53-4 ATS (51.8%).In matchups between a winning and non-winning team, the winning teams have gone 143-157-10 ATS (47.6%), including 68-73-4 ATS at home.In Monday Night games, the underdog has gone 28-13 ATS (68.2%), including 15-6 ATS home and 13-7 ATS on the road.The revenge-minded teams have gone 144-131-9 ATS (52.3%).Teams playing their final home game of the season have gone 227-225-10 ATS (50.2%), while teams playing their final road game of the season have gone 217-234-11 ATS (48.1%).And beware of the really bad teams that still playing with heart.  For example, NFL teams with a .250 (or worse) win percentage have gone 20-5 ATS (80.0%) in the next-to-last week of the season if they won their previous game.  That would apply to the Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville this week.  Conversely, really good teams, with a win percentage of .750 (or better), have gone just 13-16 ATS (44.8%) in the penultimate week off a straight-up loss.  An example of that for this week would be the Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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College Basketball Season To Date Overall Trends: An Analysis

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, Dec 26, 2022

It’s the day after Christmas. There are no games on the schedule for today, but some college basketball action returns in the next couple days. It’s a good time to take a look back at the first month and a half of the season and see how things have broken. Overall Totals: 1,012 Unders (50.2%) 1,004 Overs (49.8%) The under has edged out the over thus far, but it has been extremely close. There have been quite a few overtime games, and the overtime games have gone 87-19 toward the over (not surprisingly). Home Teams ATS Covers 1,020 (50.8%)  Road Teams 987 Covers (49.2%) In recent years the road team has actually done better, but that has flipped so far this season. Things are still even enough here that I wouldn’t want to read a lot into it.Underdogs ATS 1,039 (51.8%)  Favorites ATS 968 (48.2%) Underdogs have been the better side to be on so far this season. There have been a lot of big spreads, and the favorites have had trouble covering those big numbers. Let’s take the numbers one step further: Home Underdogs are 275-223 ATS (55.2%) so far this season. The biggest winning strategy so far this season has been backing those home underdogs. I don’t know that it is predictive of what will come the rest of the season.Where From Here? Some Tips On Betting In the Coming WeeksKeep in mind that many leagues will start playing conference games in the next week. There won’t be nearly as many big spreads. The teams will be more familiar with each other. Keep an eye on games with bigger point spreads as possible under plays. Why? There is a far smaller chance of overtime. There is also a smaller chance of a late foul fest. I would also encourage bettors to consider trying to find reasons to back teams who have done poorly against the spread on the season thus far, and fade teams who have done very well against the spread thus far. This is the time of the year where the marketplace can go too far in each direction on many teams.

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