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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 03, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Dallas Mavericks host the Philadelphia 76ers on ABC at 1:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 238 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Golden State Warriors on ABC as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Los Angeles Clippers travel to Minnesota to play the Wild as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 219.5. Two NBA games start at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic are at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Toronto Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets as an 8-point favorite with a total of 222.5. Two more NBA games begin at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. The Indiana Pavers play in San Antonio against the Spurs as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 244.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in Phoenix to play the Suns on ESPN at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 236.The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The Washington Capitals are at home against the Arizona Coyotes at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings host the New Jersey Devils on TNT at 3:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Wild play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -345 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -155 money-line road favor with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play in Anaheim against the Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The college basketball schedule has six games on national television. Connecticut hosts Seton Hall on CBS at noon ET as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 138. Maryland plays at home against Indiana on CBS at 2 p.m. ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Drake is at home against Bradley on ESPN2 at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with a total of 146.5. Ohio State hosts Michigan on CBS at 4 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143. Memphis plays at home against UAB on ESPN2 at 5:30 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 158. Colorado is at home against Stanford on FS1 at 9 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 156.Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Bournemouth is at Burnley on the USA Network at 8 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Manchester City hosts Manchester United at 10:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 02, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The Brooklyn Nets host the Atlanta Hawks at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite, with the total set at 220 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Miami Heat play at home against the Utah Jazz at 5:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 209. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets on ABC at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Houston Rockets at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 231. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The Carolina Hurricanes are home against the Winnipeg Jets at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favor with an over/under of 5.5. The Florida Panthers travel to Detroit to play the Red Wings on ABC at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at Seattle against the Kraken at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche are in Nashville to play the Predators as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild visit St. Louis to play the Blues as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Buffalo against the Sabres as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Philadelphia Flyers host the Ottawa Senators as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are home against the New York Rangers as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins are in New York to play the Islanders at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games start at 7:37 p.m. ET. The Columbus Blue Jackets travel to Chicago to play the Blackhawks as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Dallas Stars host the San Jose Sharks as a -470 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 18 games on major national television. Three NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at noon ET. South Carolina is at home against Florida on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Florida State plays at Georgia Tech on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 149. Providence hosts Villanova on Fox as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 135. Baylor plays at home against Kansas on ABC at 1 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 145. Kentucky is at home against Arkansas on CBS at 1:30 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 166.5. Two more NCAAB games on national television begin at 2 p.m. ET. Arizona hosts Oregon on ESPN as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 158. Texas plays at home against Oklahoma State on ESPN2 as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Creighton is at home against Marquette on Fox at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Four NCAAB games are on major national television at 4 p.m. ET. North Carolina hosts North Carolina State on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 153. Auburn plays at home against Mississippi State as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Washington is at home against USC on CBS as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Two more NCAAB games begin on national television at 6 p.m. ET. Duke hosts Virginia on ESPN as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 123.5. Texas Tech is at West Virginia on ESPN2 as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 152.5. Three NCAAB games on major national television start at 8 p.m. ET. Houston travels to Oklahoma on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 130. Purdue plays at home against Michigan State on Fox as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Alabama is at home against Tennessee on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 170.5. Two more NCAAB games are on major national television at 10 p.m. ET. Saint Mary’s hosts Gonzaga on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. UC-Irvine plays at home against Long Beach State on ESPN2 as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 155. Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Six matches start at 10 a.m. ET. Chelsea plays at Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Everton is at home against West Ham United on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion is at Fulham in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3. Newcastle United hosts Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Tottenham plays at home against Crystal Palace as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Aston Villa visits Luton Town on the USA Network at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 01, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Detroit to play the Pistons as a 9-point road favorite, with the total set at 221.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Philadelphia 76ers host the Charlotte Hornets as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors play in Toronto against the Raptors as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 237. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN. The Celtics are on a nine-game winning streak after their 117-99 victory against Philadelphia as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Mavericks ended their two-game losing streak with a 136-125 victory as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 237. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 208.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Sacramento Kings as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are in Chicago to play the Bulls on ESPN at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Bucks are on a three-game winning streak after their 123-85 victory at home against Charlotte as a 14-point road favorite on Tuesday. The Bulls won for the second time in their last three games in a 132-123 upset victory against Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against the Washington Wizards at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 14-point favorite with a total of 240.5.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Ottawa Senators host the Arizona Coyotes as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Philadelphia Flyers visit Washington to play the Capitals as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The New Jersey Devils play in Anaheim to play the Ducks at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has five games on national television. Ohio plays at home against Bowling Green on the CBS Sports Network at 6 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 150. Marist is at home against Fairfield on ESPNU at 7 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Dayton is at Loyola-Chicago on ESPN2 at 9 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Nevada is at home against Fresno State on the CBS Sports Network at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 15.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Utah State hosts the Air Force on FS1 at 11 p.m. ET as a 16-point favorite with a total of 138.

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IUPUI-Fort Wayne: Sneaky Good When Playing on the Road

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

IUPUI-Fort Wayne has been sneaky good when playing on the road this season. Going into their clash against Wright State on Wednesday, Purdue-Fort Wayne had a 9-6 record away from home with a +5.4 net point differential. They had beaten Northern Kentucky on the road in conference play who currently had an 11-7 record in the Horizon League. They also beat Oakland on the road in December, and the Grizzlies went into the day in first place in the Horizon League with a 14-5 record. Their previous victory before their loss on Sunday was at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Friday, 85-59, and the Phoenix have a 12-6 record in the conference. The Mastodons had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last forty-one games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog from 3.5 to 6 points. Purdue-Fort Wayne went into that game having won two games in a row before a 96-88 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. The Mastodons had covered the point spread in fifteen of their last twenty games on the road after playing their previous game on the road. They were playing a Raiders team that appeared ripe for a letdown. Wright State was on a three-game winning streak in Horizon League play after sweeping their two-game road trip last week. The Raiders won at Detroit, 93-78, last Thursday before a 96-75 upset win at Oakland as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. They were coming back home where they had an 8-5 record yet they have covered the point spread just twice in their last seven games when playing at home with the oddsmakers installing the over/under from 160 to 169.5. Wright State had not covered the point spread in their last four games after winning their two previous games on the road, and they had covered the point spread only three times in their last fifteen games at home after winning two games in a row on the road. They have covered the point spread in nine of their last thirty-one games after a victory on the road where they scored 85 or more points. The Raiders had made 53.3% or more of their shots in three straight games, yet they had covered the point spread in three of their last fourteen games after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. Wright State had covered the point spread just once in their last five games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.These were the reasons why we chose Purdue-Fort Wayne as our NCAA-B Horizon League Underdog of the Year in their matchup with Wright State on Wednesday. The Mastodons started strong by taking a 39-34 lead going into halftime. The Raiders quickly battled back in the second half by scoring the first eight points to take a 42-39 lead. Yet Purdue-Fort Wayne then went on an 8-2 run over their own to retake a three-point lead. It was a close game the rest of the way before the game went into overtime after a 74-74 deadlock after regulation time. The Mastodons outscored Wright State in overtime, 5-3, to pull the 79-77 upset. IUPUI-Fort Wayne will not have a flashy record going into the Horizon League tournament coming up next week. Yet their ability to play well in hostile environments could help them be a dangerous underdog in that tournament, especially if they get some breaks with their draw. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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How the Oddsmakers Hinted at the Super Bowl Under

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The oddsmakers initially installed the over/under for the 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl showdown at 47.5. A week later on the Monday before the big game, the total had remained stuck at 47.5 in most shops, although there were a few 48s out there as of this writing. We at Team Del Genio thought the oddsmakers were subtly projecting a lower-scoring game. The Team went “all-in” with our NFL Total of the Year with the under. Below is much of our reasoning for that call.The 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals had a closing over/under number in the 47.5 range, and that final score finished under the total with the Rams’ 23-20 victory. The 2024 Super Bowl total was on pace to be tied with that year’s game as the lowest over/under in a Super Bowl since the 2016 game between Denver and Carolina in Peyton Manning’s final season with the Broncos' elite defense leading the way to a 24-10 victory. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 43.5 range in that game. In the seven Super Bowls since, the oddsmakers had set the over/under in the 50s five times. Yet three of the last five final scores in the Super Bowl have seen 43 or fewer combined points scored. In recent years, the expectation of higher-scoring games in a league that had leaned into the offensive side of the ball had not always matched up with the reality of the two teams competing in the big game. From this background, this rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl seemed set up to see fewer points than the 51 combined points scored in Kansas City’s 31-20 victory. Patrick Mahomes won his first Super Bowl in that game, and he had since picked up a second championship ring in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory against Philadelphia last year. While many of the core players and coaches remain from that 2020 team, wide receiver Tyreek Hill is gone. This Kansas City team was the least explosive in Mahomes' career as their starting quarterback. They were only averaging 22.1 points per game going into the Super Bowl, and that number dropped to 21.0 points per game when they were playing away from Arrowhead Stadium. Yet the biggest difference between those previous Super Bowl teams and this one had been on the other side of the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs now had one of the best defenses in the league as they were holding their opponents to 16.8 points per game. They had held their three playoff opponents to 13.7 points per game and 323 yards per game. The Super Bowl was being played at Allegiant Field in Las Vegas which has a grass surface. Kansas City had played twelve of their last fourteen games under the number when playing on grass. The challenge of facing the powerful 49ers offense was already going to be stiff. San Francisco averaged 28.9 points per game and 6.8 yards per play going into the game. Yet the Chiefs had played six straight unders against teams who average 6.0 or more yards per play. This 49ers team had replaced Jimmy Garopollo with Brock Purdy at quarterback and added Christian McCaffrey at running back since that 2020 Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan was still searching for his first Super Bowl victory having also lost the big game when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in 2017. Yet in Shanahan’s last eight playoff games as the 49ers head coach, six of those games finished under the number. With the offense now centered around McCaffrey, Shanahan seemed content with more of a ball-control offense that runs time off the clock. They had the ball on offense for over 32 minutes against Detroit in the NFC championship game, and it was his fear of losing momentum to the Niners' grinding attack in the second half that Lions head coach Dan Campbell said motivated his controversial decisions to go for first downs and extend potential touchdown drives in those two failed fourth down attempts in that game. The San Francisco defense had seen two new defensive coordinators since Robert Saleh called the plays in that 2020 Super Bowl. The 49ers' current defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is a veteran in the league who had previously been the head coach for Arizona. The unit is stacked with first-team All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, second-team All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward, and last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa at tight end. The 49ers were allowing only 18.4 points per game and 313 yards per game. The 49ers had had three of their last four games and nine of their last fourteen games end with 45 or fewer combined points scored. Kansas City has had eight of their last nine and eleven of their last thirteen games end with 46 or fewer combined points scored. Our handicapping for the Super Bowl was on point, yet the result remained very much in doubt with the possibility of overtime looming. With the score tied 19-19 at the end of regulation time, it was not difficult to see how the game could end finishing over the number. Yet San Francisco’s opening drive stalled in the red zone, and their ensuing field goal made the score 22-19 with 41 combined points. We were rooting for the Chiefs now since a touchdown would end the game at 25-22, just under the 47.5s. Rooting for a 49ers turnover would be another good result since it would end the game. A Kansas City field goal would make a subsequent touchdown a crushing blow. Fortunately, Mahomes worked his magic again to engineer a winning touchdown drive. We survive overtime and win our NFL Total of the Year!                                                                                          Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Limitations of Season-Long NFL Power Ratings Exposed (again) as Kansas City Wins the Super Bowl (again)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The so-called “sharps” were on the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl— but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. We were on Kansas City — the Chiefs were our side for our 2023-24 NFL Game of the Year. Our reasoning was rewarded with Kansas City’s 25-22 victory. I concluded at the time that the sharps and the computer models were failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs had been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It was chip time now after reaching the Super Bowl again— so I was confident that the Chiefs would be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season. This team was different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group had faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team had found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it was chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possessed the best defense in the Mahomes era — they went into the Super Bowl holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They faced a San Francisco team that had good underlying numbers — but what if they were being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia did not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes appeared to be a mismatch — and it was Mahomes making big plays down the stretch while Purdy missed on some wide-open receivers in the second half of the Super Bowl. I had always appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that was no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. Spagnuolo revealed after the Super Bowl that he assigned two defensive players to act as spies to guard against his scrambling skills that played such an important role in their comeback victory against Detroit. Take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completed 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left. Spagnuolo would be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson seemed likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game. No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but I concluded that Kansas City had the edge in both coaching and with their defensive unit. The 49ers had the better skill position players — but then there was still the Mahomes versus Purdy matchup to consider. Even if Purdy was as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it was another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers were outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game going into the Super Bowl — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. We also correctly took the Under in this game in our 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. Those results made it three straight Super Bowls where we swept the side and total. Best of luck — Frank.

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Anatomy of a 40-1 Winner/Handicapping Jake Knapp at the PGA Mexico Open

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

After a winning campaign with head-to-head props in the first seven PGA Tour events in 2024, we were able to score a big win at the PGA Mexico Open on Jake Knapp at 40-1 just in time before the tour moves to the East Coast. The rookie took a four-shot lead into the final round — but he did not make it easy on us as he was shaky with his driver early on and eventually gave that lead away after Sami Valimaki caught up to his score, helped by an early eagle on a Par 4. But then Valimaki caught some jitters while Knapp was steady with his chipping and putting. And while Knapp only hit two fairways off the tee all day, he pulled away for a two-stroke victory at 19-under par.  Knapp was not my initial choice for the Long Shot Bet for our PGA Mexican Open Betting Report which always includes a Best Bet and Top Overlay Bet as well. The professional golfer outside the top ten favorites was considering at first glance was Maverick McNealy at 50-1 odds. But I dove deeper into my appreciation of Knapp, he elevated to my top Long Shot choice while being listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Knapp came into the week as the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What was exciting about Knapp was his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp has been focusing on ball speed off his club — and he was getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranked 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance going into the week — and his troubles with accuracy would be mitigated with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough at Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course.Knapp has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he had gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he had also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect with Knapp for the PGA Mexico Open was his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp was well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this. In completing the west coast swing that week, the PGA Tour was moving to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosted this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. It is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s were at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s played at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways were wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals had to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough had grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remained playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Besides cashing the 40-1 Long Shot ticket, we also cashed with Knapp in his Round One head-to-head props with Ryo Hisatsune. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that would make a big difference at this event. He ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranked 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. After a great close to the 2023 PGA Tour with first-place finishes in the final two events (concluding with the PGA Tour Championship in August — I take the fall events off to use that handicapping time on football), cashing the 40-1 ticket puts us up 16 units after the first eight events (assuming everyone plays three units per week on the Best Best, the Top Overlay Bet, and the Long Shot Bet) — meaning we have five straight weeks of free rolls to build the golf-specific bankroll. We go into the PGA Cognizant Classic on a 15 of 24 (63%) PGA head-to-head run with prop bets with our three targeted golfers as well. With THE Players Championship and the Masters just around the corner in the next six weeks, let’s keep it rolling!Best of luck — Frank.

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2024 MLB Futures: Rookie of the Year Award

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

With Spring Training underway now is the time to start locking in some MLB futures bets as we look ahead to the 2024 season. Here's a look at my predictions for American League and National League Rookie of the Year award winners as we approach the beginning of March. Odds courtesy DraftKings.American LeagueWyatt Langford - Texas Rangers (+600)While Langford's teammate and last October's breakout star Evan Carter is one of the favorites to win the award (along with Orioles phenom Jackson Holliday), I like the value being offered with the Rangers 'other' highly-touted prospect. Langford is expected to be on the Rangers Opening Day roster even if he isn't an every-day player right out of the gate. The outfielder has thrived at every level, most recently scorching a path through the Rangers minor league ranks with a .360 batting average to go along with double-digit home runs and stolen bases last season. While Carter might be the better all-around player, Langford has power to spare (which was on full display during his time with the Florida Gators) and that combined with his speed should turn voters heads as the season goes on. Texas does have a rather crowded outfield and the risk of Langford not getting a ton of playing time in April and May is real. With that said, I prefer not to back the chalk when it comes to this particular award as a lot can happen over the course of a 162-game MLB season, injuries or otherwise. Langford should be in the conversation all season long. National LeagueJackson Chourio - Milwaukee Brewers (+800)Despite the lofty price, Chourio is actually tied for the third-favorite to win this award at several books. A pair of Japanese imports lead the way in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, with the latter's stock quickly rising. I think Chourio has as good a chance as any at taking home the prize, however. We've already seen the Brewers top prospect flash during Spring Training games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee has a lot invested in the outfielder having locked him up with an eight-year, $82 million contract. There have been whispers that Chourio might not be an every-day player for the Brew Crew early in the season but I expect him to play his way into the starting lineup over the course of the exhibition schedule in March. In the Venezuelan Winter League, Chourio hit .379 across 66 at-bats with seven extra-base hits and three stolen bases. While he only had a cup of coffee at the Triple-A level last year he hit .280 with 22 home runs and 43 steals at Double-A Biloxi. Expect him to make the leap in 2024 and prove to be an bonafide star for the Brewers sooner rather than later. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 29, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as an 11.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 217.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Orlando Magic host the Utah Jazz as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 222. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Brooklyn Nets play at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. The Golden State Warriors are in New York to play the Knicks on TNT as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in San Antonio against the Spurs at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 237. The Phoenix Suns are at home against the Houston Rockets at 9:10 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 233. The Denver Nuggets host the Miami Heat on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 214.5. The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against the Washington Wizards at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 241. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Six games in the NHL drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Vegas Golden Knights as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes visit the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -245 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Detroit Red Wings host the New York Islanders as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -325 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Arizona Coyotes as a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Winnipeg Jets as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Nashville Predators are at home against the Minnesota Wild as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche play in Chicago against the Blackhawks on ESPN as a -298 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.      Two NHL games begin at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Seattle Kraken are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks host the Los Angeles Kings as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Anaheim Ducks are in San Jose to play the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.The college basketball schedule has 10 games on national television. Ohio State plays at home against Nebraska on FS1 as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. Three more NCAAB games are on national television at 7 p.m. ET. Memphis travels to East Carolina on ESPN2 as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 145.5. Gardner-Webb is at home against Longwood on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Elon University hosts William & Mary on the CBS Sports Network as a 3-point favorite with a total of 143.  Rutgers plays at home against Michigan on FS1 at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Two more NCAAB games tip off at 9 p.m. ET. Arkansas-Little Rock is at home against Tennessee State on ESPNU as an 8-point favorite with a total of 146.5. Liberty hosts New Mexico State on the CBS Sports Network as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 136. Washington plays at home against UCLA on FS1 at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 138.5. Two more nationally televised NCAAB games start at 11 p.m. ET. Saint Mary’s plays at Pepperdine on the CBS Sports Network as a 15.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 137. Gonzaga is at San Francisco on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 154.

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Smaller Conference Teams- Who Could Be Cinderella?

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024

March is almost here, and the NCAA Tournament is just around the corner. Maybe you are on the lookout for futures value. Or maybe you just want to take a closer look at smaller conference teams before the conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament arrive. I thought it would be good to take a look at five smaller conference teams I believe have a chance to be Cinderella. I’ll also take a look at why they have the chance to pull some upsets.Note that I’m going to leave the obvious teams like St. Mary’s and Florida Atlantic out of this discussion.  Princeton Tigers- The Princeton Tigers went to the Sweet 16 last year. I don’t think we should rule out the chance that they could go to the Sweet 16 again this season. Xaivian Lee is a superstar who leads the team. Princeton is second in the nation in turnover percentage on offense. They take great care of the basketball. The Tigers are also top 35 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. They are great at forcing the opponent to play at their pace. McNeese State Cowboys- It isn’t very often that you’ll see a Southland Conference team on this type of a list, but McNeese state deserves the love. They went on the road and beat a solid VCU team to start this season. They also won by 11 at Michigan. I know Michigan isn’t very good, but a double digit win at a Big Ten school is still impressive. The Cowboys are 35th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 53rd in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of balance can lead to success in March. Appalachian State Mountaineers- Dustin Kerns is a really good basketball coach. He has this Mountaineers team playing excellent basketball. Appalachian State won a home game against Auburn earlier this year. They also went to James Madison and won. They beat the Dukes at home as well. James Madison will make a lot of lists for teams capable of pulling upsets (they could), but most will overlook Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are 8th in effective field goal percentage defense. I would rather trust an elite defense than a team full of long range shooters in March. Indiana State Sycamores- The secret might be out about Indiana State more than the three teams ahead of them, but I had to give them some love here. Josh Schertz is one of the best coaches in the country that most people haven’t heard of. The Sycamores play ultra fast, and they are all about looks at the rim or from 3 point range (no mid range jumpers). They are better on offense than defense, but the Syacamores are top 20 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. Samford Bulldogs- Bucky McMillan’s style of play is so much fun to watch. If you haven’t had a chance to watch this team play, do yourself a favor and watch them when you get a chance. Samford is 11th in the nation in tempo. Their full court pressure has them at 13th in the country in forced turnover percentage. They have one of the deepest benches in the country. They are great at forcing the opponent to push the pace even if they don’t want to. They wouldn’t be a fun matchup for a highly ranked seed. I think several Mountain West teams have chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament as well. However, those teams aren’t under the radar to hardcore college hoops fans, and I wanted to dive deeper for potential value here. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Dallas Mavericks travel to Toronto to play the Raptors as a 3-point road favorite, with the total set at 240.5. The Indiana Pacers host the New Orleans Pelicans on ESPN. The Pacers' three-game winning streak ended in a 130-122 upset loss as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. The Pelicans won for the fifth time in their last seven games with their 115-92 victory at New York as a 6.5-point road favorite yesterday. Indiana is a 5.5-point favorite, with over/under at 238.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 212.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers play in Chicago to play the Bulls as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 217.5. The Denver Nuggets are at home against the Sacramento Kings at 9:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 228.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are the technical home team when they play against the Los Angeles Lakers at the Cryto.com Arena they share on ESPN at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Clippers lost for the second time in their last three games after a 123-107 upset loss to Sacramento as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The Lakers lost for the second time in their last three games after a 123-113 loss at Phoenix as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Clippers are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 235. The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. The New York Rangers host the Columbus Blue Jackets at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -250 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the St. Louis Blues on TNT at 8:37 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has ten games on national television. Virginia Commonwealth is at home against Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Four more nationally televised NCAAB games tip off at 7 p.m. ET. Tennessee hosts Auburn on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 151.5. Marquette plays at home against Providence on FS1 as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 150. Xavier is at home against DePaul on FS2 as a 19.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155.5. Western Carolina hosts Furman on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 150. Butler plays at home against St. John’s on the CBS Sports Network at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 153. Three more NCAAB games on national television begin at 9 p.m. ET. Creighton is at home against Seton Hall on FS1 as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Alabama is at Mississippi on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 166. Boston College hosts Virginia on ESPNU as a 1-point favorite with a total of 126.5. Oregon plays at home against Oregon State on FS1 at 11 p.m. ET as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. 

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NCAA Tournament Futures Consideration: San Diego State

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024

Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away and now is the time to weigh your options on futures positions, looking for teams that could improve their seeding and raise their price in the coming weeks. Making repeat trips to the Final Four is difficult but San Diego State is not being priced like a team that was the national runner-up last season, even with a similar profile through a difficult conference.  San Diego State +7500 The profile for the Aztecs this season is shaping up somewhat similarly to last season. San Diego State shook off a rather miserable recent history for the Mountain West and made it to the national championship game last season as #5 seed. There were close calls along the way, but the Mountain West looks even stronger this season. San Diego State is currently third in the Mountain West standings at 10-5 but they will be favored to win out and move past Boise State for a top two finish. The Aztecs have wins over three Pac-12 teams plus the best two teams in the WCC in Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga on its non-conference resume as this year’s team could get a better seed than last season, with many projecting San Diego State as a #4 seed right now.  Brian Dutcher’s team again has some of the very best defensive numbers in the nation and is in the top two of a deep Mountain West in just about every statistical category on defense. The offense has had marginal turnover and 3-point shooting rates but that was true of last season’s team as well.  Three starters are back from last season’s team plus the addition of USC transfer Reese Walters. Jaedon LaDee was a reserve on last season’s team, but he has emerged as one of the nation’s top players this season as the talent is there for the Aztecs to make another serious run.  Last year’s run did feature some good fortune including two one-point wins while getting to play Florida Atlantic in the Final Four, but most Final Four teams are going to survive a few close calls in March. That experience should be beneficial this season with a veteran group that is attractively priced despite that pedigree and the potential to be in a strong seeding position. If San Diego State wins out and again wins the Mountain West tournament, rising to a #3 seed is still possible. A top 10 non-conference schedule and a top 20 overall schedule will keep San Diego State in at least a #4 seed position unless they suffer a notably bad loss down the stretch.  As usual there aren’t a great deal of west coast teams in line for strong seeds in the NCAA Tournament outside of Arizona. Washington State will likely get shipped to a different region to avoid a potential Sweet 16 Pac-12 pairing while Saint Mary’s is a wounded team that would be attractive as a potential pod-mate in a potential 4/5 draw. Opening games in Spokane or Salt Lake City seem likely for San Diego State and if they reach the second weekend the West games are in Los Angeles for a very favorable location if the Aztecs are given a West region position. The Final Four is also in Phoenix should San Diego State again make a big run.           

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