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Contrarianism as Fool's Gold: UConn and Getting Out of the Way of a Freight Train

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

At first glance, it looked perhaps too easy to side with the Connecticut Huskies against the San Diego State Aztecs in the college basketball National Championship Game. UConn had been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Miami Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Most of the college basketball experts were siding with the Huskies to win and cover the 7.5 points they were laying as the favorite. The betting public was more mixed as they were giving more credit to an Aztecs team that was one of the best defensive teams in the nation to keep things close. I like fading the cadre of college basketball experts when their group think form a clear consensus on a side. But this was not a situation to get too cute. Sometimes the contrarian play is the wrong side — and that became evident in UConn’s 76-59 victory to easily win and cover the point spread. Thankfully, I thought better of my contrarian instincts in this instance. Here are a few of the reasons why. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies in the Final Four — and San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address that conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they were steamrolling teams again. The Huskies had covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley felt his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacked familiarity with the Huskies' approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game was probably at least 68 points — they had reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But it was the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they were playing an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they had scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They were only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc seemed unlikely. The Aztecs took many of their shots from the midrange — and now they were playing a UConn team that ranked sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They had endured a difficult schedule — but they had been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all lived (and died) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn was a good 3-point shooting team, they probably had the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga was shooting 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson was making 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban was making 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs had dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they had used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also ranked 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They held their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.There was one final nugget that convinced me to strongly endorse and invest heavily in the Huskies. UConn was the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. That 2018 Villanova team was of particular significance to me since I had taken the contrarian route in backing Michigan in that game. I learned a lesson from that game. Avoid standing in front of freight trains if what you are looking at is, in fact, a freight train. Sometimes contrarianism is Fool’s Gold. And sometimes the college basketball expert class gets one right when they form a near-consensus. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. More importantly, we won our College Basketball Game of the Year by seeing the forest through the trees regarding the Connecticut Huskies.Best of luck — Frank.  

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Betting Numbers (not sides) -- and the Value of Passing

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

When the Milwaukee Bucks got upset for the second-straight time to the Miami Heat in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, it sure seemed at first glance like they would offer a nice opportunity for bettors in Game Five back at home. The problem with this logic is that if a vast majority of bettors also feel this way, then the resulting point spread number may not offer value relative to the situation. Bettors make a mistake if they become fixated exclusively on the circumstances -- without taking into account the corresponding point spread number. In this instance, the books placed Milwaukee as a favorite back at home as an 11.5-point favorite. So, the real question was: after the Heat pulled off two straight upset wins and now were traveling to play a Bucks team motivated to avoid playoff elimination after being upset in two straight games enough to expect them to win by 12 or more points? Empirical situational angles can be helpful to ascertain how teams in similar situations have responded relative to the point spread. However, when the point spread gets so high, the relevant sample size gets diluted. How many NBA teams coming off two straight upset losses and were now staving off elimination were then laying double-digits? One could go back 50 years to extract more numbers for that sample size, but does data prior to the establishment of the 3-point line really add insight to this situation? Sometimes the large point spread is indicative of just how resounding the favored team will respond. But sometimes it simply reveals how committed the betting public is to a narrative. The Bucks had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite — but the public was still zombie-betting Milwaukee despite Giannis Antetokounmpo not being 100%. The Bucks closed as a 13-point favorite in many locations. At a certain point, one simply has to pass. Fortunately, I concluded with a "No, thank you" on this proposition. I was not going to consider playing the Heat under those circumstances. But I have seen better results in my handicapping when accepting that sometimes the best way to utilize situations that I "like" is to use it simply say "no" to the other side. Passing is fine. Avoiding losers is good! For me, that Milwaukee had most recently failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss was concerning. I was troubled that they had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points. They had not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The warning signs were there. Miami was also demonstrating that it is possible for "Heat Culture" to simply flip the switch in the postseason. I was so dismayed by their effort in their opening Play-In Tournament against Atlanta two weeks ago -- and that included Jimmy Butler. Things have changed. The Heat not only pulled a third straight upset in the playoffs by beating the Bucks in Milwaukee to end that series in five games, but they pulled off that trick again with a fourth straight upset victory against New York in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Sometimes the best option on the table is to pass. The number has to reflect the value of the prospective situation. Best of luck — Frank.

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The Value of 1st Half Plays in the Bettor's Tool Box

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

The Team had three winners with NBA 1st Half plays in the NBA playoffs in the last week, including our NBA Round One Playoff Game of the Year on Memphis covering the 1st Half point spread against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. Some bettors and handicappers consider 1st Half plays to be simply regurgitations of full game plays. Tell that to bettors on the New York Knicks today in their opening game in their Round Two series with Miami or the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday in their Game 4 against the Heat. Both those two teams covered the 1st Half point spread after being installed as the favorite for the first 24 minutes of the game, yet went on to lose the game. Granted, if the lone reason for liking the 1st Half play is just repeating the reasons to like that team to cover the point spread for the entire game, then the logic is limited. Doubling and tripling down on the same basic argument is what got Adam Sandler in trouble in Uncut Gems. Yet specific arguments to support the 1st Half play while keeping that oddsmakers 1st Half number in mind are good reasons to consider these plays unique and valuable. When used carefully, taking the 1st Half options offered by the oddsmakers presents successful bettors and handicappers an additional weapon in their arsenal to extract profits. Let’s look closer at these three 1st Half winners in the NBA this week. The New York Knicks had an average halftime lead this season of 2.6 points going into the first game of their series with the Miami Heat. Of more significance for this 1st Half wager, the Knicks led the league with a 51-30-1 ats mark in the 1st Half this season. At home, they held their opponents to only 54.8 points in the 1st Half which allowed them to go into the locker room with an average lead of 5.1 points. They had a 26-14-1 ats record in the 1st Half when playing at home which was the second-best mark in the league. When the oddsmakers installed them as favorites in the 1st Half, New York had a 24-16 ats mark, the third-best record in the NBA. When playing teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better, they had a 31-12-1 ats record, the best ats record in the NBA. The Knicks last played on Wednesday when they finished their series against Cleveland with a 106-95 victory. They had covered the point spread in nine of their thirteen 1st Halves when playing again after taking three or more days off. They held the Cavaliers to only 46.1 points in the 1st Half in their five games against them in round one of the playoffs. Their average halftime lead against Cleveland was 3.2 points. They covered the 1st Half point spread in four of those games with the lone exception being Game 2 on the road in Cleveland.Miami pulled off three straight upsets to stun the Milwaukee Bucks last round. Yet most of those victories came from surprising 2nd Half efforts by the Heat. They trailed at halftime in three of their five games against the Bucks. Miami had the fourth-worst ats record in the 1st Half in the regular season. They had an even 56.5 points scored and allowed average in the 1st Half this season. When playing on the road, the Heat were getting outscored by 1.0 points in the 1st Half. In their five-game series with Milwaukee, they went into the locker room at halftime trailing by an average of 2.7 points with the Bucks averaging 63.1 points. In all seven of their postseason games, Miami was outscored by 3.3 points in the 1st Half. The Heat were 12-point underdogs in Game 5 before upsetting Milwaukee, 128-126 in overtime to win that series. Considering that Miami has covered the point spread only eight times in their last thirty-four games after covering the point spread in their previous game, a flat effort from the Heat seems likely, at least early in the game. The Knicks covered the point 2 to 3 points they were laying in the 1st Half by going into halftime with a 55-50 score. Yet Miami outscored them, 58-46, to pull the upset by a 108-101 score. In hindsight, bypassing the New York full game play and only taking the Knicks minus the points in the 1st Half was the preferred option. On Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies found themselves trailing by a 3-1 margin in this series after losing in overtime in Los Angeles to the Lakers on Monday, 117-111. The strategy for head coach Taylor Jenkins seems for his team to start fast and loose to feed off the energy of the crowd and crush the morale of this veteran Lakers team. Lebron James and Anthony Davis knew full well that the reward for pulling out Game 4 was that they have two games in hand even if they lose this game. Conserving energy may become a higher priority for Los Angeles if they fall behind early. The Grizzlies had been a fast-starting team all season as they went into halftime with an average lead of 3.8 points. When playing at home, Memphis averaged 62.8 points in the 1st half and goes into the locker room at halftime with an average lead of 7.9 points. Their 53-32-1 ats record in the 1st half was the best in the NBA. They had covered the point spread in the 1st half in all four games in this series, and they had covered the 1st Half point spread in seven of their last ten games against the Lakers. Los Angeles had exerted plenty of energy in outscoring the Grizzlies by six points in the overtime period in Game 4 Monday. Even without considering the physical toll of a playoff series, the Lakers had been a slow-starting team this season. Los Angeles had gone into the locker room at halftime with an average score of 58 to 58. On the road, the Lakers were being outscored by 1.9 points in the 1st half. In their five games in the postseason, they had been outscored by 2.8 points in the 1st half while only putting up 51.8 points. The strength of this Lakers team is their ability to step up their game in the clutch. Los Angeles had a 59-27 ats record in the fourth quarter this season, the best mark in the NBA. This reflects not only the veteran savvy of James and Davis but also the team’s attention to conserving their energy for winnable opportunities. We predicted that if the Lakers fall too far behind in the second half, they would likely take their foot off the gas pedal by the fourth quarter (and the oddsmakers will adjust their fourth quarter line with the game out of hand with the benches coming on). Yet if Los Angeles finds themselves with a good opportunity to end this series tonight (and gain the extra few days of rest), James and Davis would step up their game in the final twelve minutes. That was the situation we wanted to avoid, and that is why we did not endorse Memphis as a full game play. The Grizzlies successfully covered the 2 to 3 points they were favored by in the 1st Half by going into halftime with a 61-52 lead. Given the final score of 116-99, one could assume that simply making the full-game bet was the same choice. Yet it is not as if playing an ats side winner in the 1st Half is not an argument that they will not cover the point spread for the game. A bettor can take an underdog yet decline the money line bet for taking the points despite suspecting that an upset may be in the cards. It is about preferred choices. Later, the Lakers pulled within one point in the second half with the score 75-74 with under four minutes to. Memphis then went on a 26-2 run to put the game away. If not for that surge, perhaps the Lakers win the game. Los Angeles went on to blowout the Grizzlies on Wednesday, 125-85. On Monday, the Bucks found themselves at risk of falling behind, 3-1, in this series to that ever-dangerous Miami Heat team which had three pending 2nd half comebacks forthcoming in their next three playoff games. With the expectation that Giannis Antetokounmpo returning to the court after being injured, the oddsmakers and the market had responded by moving Milwaukee up from a road favorite in the five-point range to them now favored in the eight-point range. We considered those are a lot of points to offer a home underdog like Miami with so much playoff experience. Instead, we preferred the 1st half bet. After falling behind, 66-53, at halftime in Game 4, the Bucks would be determined to get off to a fast start. They had covered the point spread in eleven of their last twelve games after getting upset as the favorite in their previous game. They play well on the road against good teams and had covered the point spread in ten of their last fourteen games on the road against teams with a winning home record. They were going into halftime with an average lead of 2.1 points when playing on the road. Miami had outscored their opponents in the first half this season, yet they have been outscored by 2.0 points in the first half in their five postseason games this season. That trend continued in Game 4 as they went into halftime with a 57-50 lead. Yet they got outscored in the 2nd Half, 69-57, to lose the game by five points. Like with the Knicks in Game 1 of their series with the Heat, the profitable rout in bacon the Bucks was only the 1st Half ats side option.  In basketball, 1st Half plays are distinct from full-game side plays. Oftentimes, they are the preferred betting option. They remain an important tool in Team Del Genio’s ways to beat the books.Good luck - TDG.

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The Market's Misplaced Game 7 Faith in the Sacramento Kings

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

The Golden State Warriors opened as a small road favorite of 1 point by the oddsmakers for Game 7 of their opening round series with Sacramento. The market responded by betting the Kings to a favorite of 1 to 1.5 points by tip-off time. We thought this was a great opportunity to take the Warriors. Golden State had successfully closed out a playoff series in nine of their previous ten opportunities when playing at home before Game 6 against the Kings in Round One of their Western Conference playoff series. Perhaps that game gave them a false sense of confidence on Friday. The Warriors shot a season-low 37.2% from the field in an embarrassing 118-99 upset loss despite being installed as a 6.5-point favorite by the oddsmakers in that game. The defending NBA champions may be down, yet they were not yet out. We expected the veteran core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to respond with an outstanding effort in Game 7. Golden State had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after getting upset by a division rival. They had covered the point spread in five straight games after losing to a division rival on their home court. The Warriors had covered the point spread in eight of their last twelve playoff games when facing elimination. In revenge spots when they lost by double-digits to their opponent in their previous game against them, they had covered the point spread in twenty-one of their last thirty-one games. Sacramento extended this series to a seventh game yet this team would be making a mistake in presuming they won the series by winning Game 6 and getting one more game back at home. While Harrison Barnes had playoff experience in his time with the Warriors, most of these players lack significant playoff experience. The Kings had not been to the playoffs since 2006 before this series. This team had covered the point spread only once in their last seven games after an upset win on the road by double-digits. De’Aaron Fox was dealing with his fractured finger so it may be too much to ask for him to single-handedly lead his team to victory by outshooting Curry and Thompson. Domantas Sabonis had been a surprising liability in this series. In his 206 minutes on the court, the Kings are getting outscored by 27 points yet when he is off the court (82 minutes), they are outscoring the Warriors by 32 points. Sacramento only shot 40.4% from the field in Game 6 so it would be inaccurate to suggest they took it to champions. Golden State simply could not make baskets. The Kings deserve some of the credit, yet they were a team that ranked 25th in the league in defensive efficiency in the regular season. Sacramento did get this game at home yet they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games in front of their home fans. Excluding the 2020 postseason played on a neutral court in the bubble, home teams had covered the point spread just three times in the last thirteen Game 7s in the NBA playoffs. The Warriors responded with a resounding statement in a 120-100 victory. They held the Kings to 42 points in the 2nd half. Curry proved himself the most valuable player on the court by scoring 50 points.Bettors that thought Sacramento was poised to dethrone the champions and that home-court edge would give them a big advantage had it wrong. Once again, the wisdom of the oddsmakers in installing their initial line was proven right. And the Team won their NBA Underdog of the Month on Golden State to finish their month of April in the NBA!Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with two playoff games on ABC. The New York Knicks host the Miami Heat at 1 PM ET in the opening game of their Eastern Conference semifinals series. The Knicks are a 4.5-point favorite, with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Golden State Warriors at 3:30 PM ET in the seventh game of their Western Conference quarterfinals series. The Kings forced this seventh game with their 119-99 upset victory as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Sacramento is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games on its slate in the conference quarterfinals on TNT. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Florida Panthers at 6:30 PM ET in the seventh game of their opening-round series. The Panthers forced this Game 7 with their 7-5 victory on Friday. The Bruins are a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 6.The Colorado Avalanche host the Seattle Kraken at 9:30 PM ET in the seventh game of their opening-round series. The Avalanche forced a seventh game with their 4-1 win on the road on Friday. Colorado is a -210 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs travel to Miami to play the Marlins on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET as a -165 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Washington to play the Nationals as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Seattle Mariners at 1:37 PM ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. The Baltimore Orioles visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -150 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play in New York against the Mets as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three more MLB games begin at 2:10 PM ET. The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Chicago to play the White Sox as a -195 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The New York Yankees are in Texas to play the Rangers at 2:35 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 12. The San Diego Padres are the technical home team at the Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium in Mexico City against the San Francisco Giants as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 20.5. The Cincinnati Reds play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -150 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 4:10 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN and ESPN2 starts at 7:10 PM ET, with the Houston Astros playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros are a -145 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with five matches. Four matches begin at 9 AM ET. Leeds United plays at Bournemouth in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Newcastle United is at home against Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City visits Fulham on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Manchester United hosts Aston Villa as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Liverpool plays at home against Tottenham on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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2023 MLB Real or Fake: Chicago Cubs

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Apr 29, 2023

2023 MLB Real or Fake: Chicago Cubs As we close the first month of the season, several teams are off to surprising starts to the season. The Chicago Cubs are among the pleasant surprises with a winning record and one of the best run differentials in the National League. Is the start for Chicago a real sign of progress for the franchise or is this a fake short term upswing that will not be sustained? Heading into the final weekend in April the Cubs are a top five scoring team on offense and a top five runs allowed team on defense as the numbers are certainly real for the Cubs, leading the NL in scoring differential as of April 29. The Cubs are hitting for batting average and are also a top five home run team so far this season led by Patrick Wisdom. Justin Steele also owns some of the best numbers of any starting pitcher at this point in the season.  The Cub are just 6-8 vs. winning teams however and have produced several blowout results to inflate the scoring differential. A 3-0 interleague series in Oakland where the Cubs outscored the Athletics 26-3 is accounting for almost the entire positive ledger for the Cubs in the standings and scoring numbers as well. The Cubs have just a .500 record at home and are .500 on the road outside of Oakland as there are some flaws in the numbers.  Chicago has not been swept this season however and is just 2-3 in one-run games as the record has not benefitted from an unusual number of narrow wins. The Cubs have gone 7-2 in interleague play and have already faced the Dodgers seven times while also playing several other playoff contenders for an early season path that looked difficult at the outset of the season.  The rotation was a big question mark for Chicago entering the season and Kyle Hendricks opened the season on the IL while acquisition Jameson Taillon has joined him after making only three starts. Steele has taken some time to develop since being drafted in 2014 and while he has overachieved to some degree in the first month, he was successful last season and could be a true #1 starter.  Expecting Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly to continue strong early season paces may be a more difficult result however as Stroman has a career high K/9 and a career low BABIP so far in six starts this season. Smyly’s career has mostly been an inconsistent one and he could see his numbers slide in a larger sample size as well. The Cubs will need to use a patchwork back of the rotation in the short term and Hayden Wesneski has endured mixed results so far while the bullpen for the Cubs has been a below average performing unit so far this season.  The Cubs do have a reasonable schedule to start May but will face a difficult stretch in the second half of the month with series in Houston and Philadelphia while a home stand includes the Mets and the Rays as while the Cubs will be above .500 through April, doing so through May looks less likely. Chicago won 74 games last season and while a season of improvement is now likely, winding up significantly above .500 and competing for a playoff spot still seems unlikely even with an encouraging start to the season. Verdict on the 2023 Chicago Cubs start: Fake

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2023 MLB Real or Fake: Minnesota Twins

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Apr 29, 2023

2023 MLB Real or Fake: Minnesota Twins As we close the first month of the season, several teams are off to surprising starts to the season. The Minnesota Twins were contenders for much of the 2022 season before collapsing to 78-84 with a 11-22 run from September 1 to the end of the season, handing the division title to Cleveland. So far in April 2023 the Twins look like the top threat in the AL Central, is the start for the Twins sustainable or is or is this a fake short term upswing that will end with disappointment again? Minnesota is 16-12 so far this season but its scoring differential has been modest at just +22 and the difference in the win column is built entirely on going 5-1 vs. the struggling Royals so far this season. Minnesota has already won a series vs. the Astros however while also taking four of seven against the Yankees for a rare outcome for the franchise against a recent nemesis.  Minnesota is 3-4 in one-run games and has not played Detroit yet this season as even with the adjustments to the division schedules in 2023, the Twins should have a favorable overall draw in a weak AL Central division. The pitching staff for the Twins is second in baseball in producing strikeouts for a major change of course from recent seasons and the Twins are a top 10 performer in most pitching areas with a solid bullpen and one of the more complete rotations in the American League.  While Kenta Maeda has struggled, the pick-up of Pablo Lopez is paying dividends while Joe Ryan has pitched well. Sonny Gray has some of the best numbers in all of baseball in the first month of the season. A solid start to the season for Tyler Mahle is now in question with an elbow issue as the once solid rotation depth could look less reliable a few weeks down the road.   Minnesota’s offense has hit home runs but mostly has average to below average results in most offensive categories, offering a low batting average and a high strikeout rate. Byron Buxton hasn’t been playing in the outfield to diminish his value while Nick Gordon and Carlos Correa have struggled at the plate after making significant contributions last season. Joey Gallo has regained his home run stroke however as potentially a great pick-up and the Twins have been successful even with Jorge Polanco missing the first few weeks of the season.  Minnesota’s defensive rating has been mediocre so far this season and the Twins appear to have not received the notice on the new rule changes that are more favorable to base running with only three stolen bases, all from newcomer Michael A. Taylor who has been a bright spot in the lineup as well as filling in for Buxton in center field. Alex Kirilloff is almost up to a full workload at AAA and could join the Twins in a few weeks as well for another possible boost to the lineup.  The early May schedule for the Twins offers an opportunity with a road trip vs. division foes Chicago and Cleveland to potentially create further separation in the division race. The Twins went just 6-13 vs. Cleveland last season despite even scoring in the series as last year’s team had poor close-game results. Overall, the depth on the roster looks more capable of surviving the expected injury toll. The AL Central again looks like a division that will not require an elite record to win and Minnesota likely has more staying power as a playoff threat than even the current solid start suggests.  Verdict on the 2023 Minnesota Twins start: Real

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/29/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 29, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with the opening game in the conference semifinals. The Denver Nuggets host the Phoenix Suns on TNT at 8:30 PM ET. The Nuggets are a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 226 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with three games on its slate in the conference quarterfinals. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs on TBS at 7:05 PM ET. The Lightning forced a sixth game in this series after avoiding playoff elimination with their upset win on the road in Game 5. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers are at home against the New Jersey Devils on ABC at 8:08 PM ET. The Devils attempt to end this series after winning their third game in a row against the Rangers in Game 5. New York is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers travel to Los Angeles to play the Kings on TBS at 10:05 PM ET. The Oilers took a 3-2 lead in this series with their victory in Game 5 on Tuesday. Edmonton is a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 17 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles play in Detroit against the Tigers in the opening game of their doubleheader at 12:10 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Washington to play the Nationals in the first game of their doubleheader at 1:05 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals at 2:10 PM ET as a -210 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 3:07 PM ET as a -215 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Atlanta Braves visit New York against the Mets on Fox as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Miami Marlins are at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.  The Boston Red Sox host the Cleveland Guardians at 4:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 5:10 PM ET. The Orioles play the Tigers in the second game of their doubleheader. The Houston Astros play at home against the Philadelphia Phillies as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two more MLB games begin at 6:05 PM ET. The Pirates play the Nationals in the second game of their doubleheader. The San Diego Padres are the technical home team at the Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium in Mexico City against the San Francisco Giants as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 15. The Texas Rangers host the New York Yankees at 7:05 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 12.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals on FS1 at 9:10 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League begins with three matches. West Ham United plays at Crystal Palace on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET, with both teams priced as a pick ‘em with a total of 2 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Two EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Brentford is at home against Nottingham Forest as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion host Wolverhampton on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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MLB Totals Trends So Far: What Do They Mean?

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Apr 28, 2023

There are a lot of new rules in Major League Baseball this year. There were a lot of unknowns about how those would change betting on baseball this year. The biggest unknown was about what totals would look like due to the rule changes.Let’s take a look at some numbers for the season so far- Season To Date Totals Numbers: 186 Overs 181 Unders (50.7% Overs) Last 7 Days Totals: 40 Overs 52 Unders (56.5% Unders)For several weeks the over was on fire, and many were saying the over was “free money” with the new rules. In fact, about three weeks into the season the over was hitting at about 56%. Now, we have seen things flip around to where the under has been cashing in very nicely for about the last ten days. I’ll be the first to admit that I was hesitant to bet many totals early on this season. I wanted to sit back and see how the rule changes would alter scoring in baseball. After the rash of overs in the first few weeks, the betting marketplace started betting up nearly every total on the board on a daily basis. Between that and the oddsmakers adjusting the numbers higher, under bettors have had more success recently.On the whole, scoring is a up a bit from a year ago. However, it is my opinion that the biggest lesson to be learned here is that the betting market is efficient and oddsmakers are always going to make adjustments. Blindly betting games to go over the total because recent games have been going over isn’t a good strategy. What should you be doing instead of just trying to follow a league wide trend? I recommend looking at umpire statistics, pitcher vs. batter stats, and pitcher splits based on home/road and early season or late season. We will have to keep an eye on totals again when the weather heats up in the summer, but for now the oddsmakers have caught up with the new rules. 

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UEFA Europa Conference League Futures 2022/23

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Friday, Apr 28, 2023

The semi finals for the UEFA Europa Conference League have been set to start on May 11 with the finals set for June 7 and we are finally down to the final four teams where someone is going home with the Conference League trophy. The 2 semi finals of this competition will both be 2-leg rounds, each team getting a home match, while the finals will be a single leg match on a neutral site in Prague, Czechia. Now that the competition has been whittled down to 4 contenders, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the title by picking an outright winner here. To Win Outright West Ham +175: West Ham is coming into this semi final as the favorite to win the entire tournament. They have been a very bad team in the Premier League all season as they have been struggling just to stay above relegation all year, but they have been a very dominant team in this competition in every single match they have played in, even when they were in awful form in the Premier League they were still great in the Conference League. They have also started to turn their form around in the Premier League recently as they are making a push to get away from relegation but they have been in much better form overall over the last few weeks. They have a lot of good talent on their team and should be much higher in the Premier League table than the way they have performed this year but they are starting to perform well now and that makes them a very dangerous threat in this tournament. Their form in this competition has been great all year but if they are playing better now in the Premier League as well, then they are going to have a lot of confidence here as they are in the best form they have been in all season. All that being said, they still have a very tough road ahead of them to winning this competition as they will have to face either Fiorentina or Basel in the finals who are both very good, but also this AZ Alkmaar side is no push over either. AZ Alkmaar is currently sitting in 4th place in their domestic league in the Netherlands and they have already taken out some quality teams in this competition like Anderlecht in the last round and Lazio in the round prior. West Ham may be the best team left in this competition but getting through the semi finals in a 2 leg round is going to be very tough and they still have to win the finals in a neutral location after that. Fiorentina +187: Fiorentina is coming into this semi final as the next biggest favorite to win the entire competition. They have been very strong in this competition all year as they went 4-1-1 in the group stage and they were even better once the knockouts started as they won 5 of their 6 matches. They have also held nothing back in this tournament as they have won matches in the 2nd leg of their rounds even when they had a big lead from the 1st leg and they have also been getting better as a team overall. They have performed well in the Conference League all year but they have also been very good in their domestic league recently as they have easily been the hottest team in Italy over the last few weeks. Their defense has been good all year but their attack has been on fire with scoring goals recently and they have already been playing with the mentality of going for the win and holding nothing back in their matches. Fiorentina also plays in a very good Serie A league as the Italian league is on its way back to the top being one of the best leagues in Europe as they have 2 teams in the Champions League semi finals, 2 teams in the Europa League semi finals, and Fiorentina in the Conference League semi finals. Fiorentina also has a lot of good teams in front of them in Italy as they are in 10th place right now and might not make it into a European spot for next year so they are only going to be more motivated to win this competition as it will secure them a spot for next year in Europa League at least. Fiorentina is also facing Basel in the semi finals which is the weakest of the 4 teams left by far so they have a much easier road to the trophy as they should get by Basel with no issues and will only have the finals to worry about. AZ Alkmaar +333: AZ Alkmaar is coming into this semi final as the team with the 3rd best chance of winning this competition but they are currently sitting in 4th place in their domestic league in the Netherlands and they are no push over team. They have already kicked out some good teams in this competition, most notably their win over Lazio in the knockout round which they won both legs 2-1 and have won 3 of their 4 matches in the knockout stages while also going 5-0-1 in the group stage. AZ Alkmaar has shown they can win matches against good teams away from home, they are going to have a much tougher match against West Ham here but, they have also shown how good they are at home and will use their home leg as a way to get a big advantage in this series. Their home leg is also going to be the 2nd leg so if they can manage a result or even a 1 goal loss in England, they will be in a very good position to win it in the 2nd leg back at home. AZ Alkmaar has a chance to get by in this round but they still have to take out the best team in this competition who has been playing in much better form recently and even if they do somehow get past West Ham here, they still have a big finals match to win against another good team.  Basel +500: Basel is coming into this semi final as the team with the least chance to win the entire competition and that is a very fair evaluation of this team. Basel used to be a very dominant team in Switzerland for years but they have really fallen off over the last few years and have been struggling to win matches in their own domestic league all season as they currently sit in 6th place out of 10 teams in their league. Not only have they struggled in their own domestic league this year, but they have also struggled a lot in the Conference League every step of the way. They were only 3-2-1 in the group stage of the Conference League and finished 2nd place in their group which caused them to play 2 extra playoff matches against Trabzonspor to get into the knockout stages and now they have scraped and clawed their way into the semi finals by getting through the knockout stages with only 1 win in their 6 matches. Basel is lucky to have made it this far in the tournament but the reality is that this is not a very good team and they are going to show it here when they are eliminated from the semi finals. Basel has no chance to go on and win the Conference League title.  The PredictionAfter looking at everything with these 4 clubs left in the competition, West Ham may be the best team when it comes to talent left in the tournament, but they have a much tougher road to the finals and Fiorentina has been playing very well in this competition like West Ham but have also performed much better as a team overall in these last few weeks. Fiorentina at +187 will win the UEFA Europa Conference League Title this year.

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Brasileiro Série A Futures 2023

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Friday, Apr 28, 2023

European leagues are beginning to wind down now as we are in the final stretch of the season in Europe but South America is just kicking off their next season for the year and it is time to discuss possible futures on who will be lifting the Brasileiro Série A Title this season. Palmeiras are the reigning champions of the league from last season and are already the big favorites to win it all again, but let’s see if there are any other contenders that can give the reigning champs a run for their money this year. To Win Outright Palmeiras +175: Palmeiras is coming into the season as the favorites to win the title once again as they are the champions from last season. They won the league by 9 points as they had a huge lead by the 2nd half of the season and that is including the fact that they had to juggle Copa Libertadores matches as well, a competition they went very deep in. They will have Copa Libertadores to focus on once again but it might be a competition they are more focused on this year as they have won it 2 of the last 3 years and are coming off of a season where they did not even make the finals. Considering that they won the league title last year, they will likely be more focused on winning Copa Libertadores which could affect their league matches negatively later in the season, but this is also the best team in South America when it comes to talent right now and they have the depth to make a deep run in both competitions. Palmeiras is the team to beat right now, not only in Brasil but in all of South America so it would not be shocking at all to see them win the title and the Copa Libertadores trophy. There is not a lot of value here at +175 but it is still a very good bet as this is the best team in all of South America. Flamengo +275: Flamengo is coming into this season as the next favorite on the board to win the league title and they had a very good season last year in the league while also going on to win Copa Libertadores. They managed to pull out the Copa Libertadores win last season but they were not playing well in the league near the end of the season and this form has carried over as they have not been playing well over the last few months in their state leagues. They also looked awful in the Club World Cup matches they played in as this is a team that has been on the decline for a few months going back to the end of the last calendar year. Flamengo still has a lot of talent on their team and they are going to be one of the better teams in Brasil this year, but they simply do not have the depth and talent to win this league while also focusing on defending their Copa Libertadores Title. Flamengo will continue to drop points in silly spots and their recent form coming into the season will also have a lasting impact on where they end up in the table near the end of the season. This is simply not Flamengo’s year as they need to replenish some of their older talent and there is no real value on them to win the league title at this price.  Fluminense +450: Fluminense is coming into the season as the next favorite on the board here and they are a club that has been improving a lot over the last year. They improved their team a lot last season which allowed them to go on a big run which saw themselves finishing in 3rd place in the table. They also have a very strong home advantage as they rarely drop points on their own pitch and that will go a long way in this league the way they are taking advantage of their home matches. They had the 4th best home record in the league last year as they were averaging around 1 goal allowed per match there and scoring over 2 goals per match, but they also had the 2nd best away record and they are going to be a real force this season. Fluminense has been building a very good team and things are finally all in place for this club to go on some big unbeaten runs this year and be one of the more dominant teams in the league. Fluminense was making a lot of waves at the end of the season last year as they went on a big run to put themselves in 3rd place, but this is going to be their year where they are a real contender to win this title and compete with the best in Brasil all season. There is a lot of value in this Fluminense side to win the title this season as they are one of the best teams in Brasil coming into the season.  Atlético Mineiro +900: Atlético Mineiro is coming into this season as the next biggest favorite to win the league title but there is quite a big drop off between them and the next team favored to win it all. Atlético Mineiro won the league title just 2 years ago back in 2021, but this team has fallen a long way from where they were 2 years ago. They took a big dive last season, just 1 year after winning the league title, as they finished in 7th place in the league and even fizzled out of Copa Libertadores very early in the competition. They are a club that has been on the decline for a while now as they still look to replenish their aging talent and they are going to have a very difficult time this year with their depth trying to balance both league matches and Copa Libertadores matches. Atlético Mineiro may be the 4th favorite on the list to win this title but the reality is that they have no real shot at even finishing in the top 4 of the league this year. This is a club that is going to continue declining until they make some serious moves for better players and it is going to show in their league performance this season. There is no value at all in Atlético Mineiro to win the league title this year.  Internacional +2000: Internacional is coming into the season as the next favorite on the board to win the league title this year and they are coming off of a very good season where they came out of nowhere to finish in 2nd place. This is a team with a lot of talent and they really take advantage of their home matches which is very important in this league. They had the best home record in Brasil last year and they are going to be a real title threat here if they continue to take advantage of those home matches. They are also going to be in Copa Libertadores which is a competition they have not performed well in recently, but that could also work to their advantage here as it did last season since they were a much better team in the league near the end of the year when they only had league matches to focus on. An early Copa Libertadores exit would actually help this team’s chances at winning the title and it is very possible that they become a new threat in the league this year after the season they had last year. Internacional is not the best team in this league but they are definitely one of the better teams and if things fall the right way for them along with continuing their home dominance in matches, they will be a top 4 team once again by the end of the season. Internacional does have some value at this price to win the league as a dark horse. Corinthians +2500: Corinthians is coming into the season as the next team on this list to win the title but this is a very underwhelming club that has not performed up to their expectations year after year recently. They have been a top 5 team in the league over the last few years but they never seem to climb higher than 4th place in the table, where they finished last season, and they do not have the talent on their side to compete with the best teams in Brasil. Defensively, this is a very good team that does not allow many goals and will definitely make teams work hard for the win, but their attack is also abysmal as they do not score a lot of goals in their matches and that is a huge problem in a league that has some very strong attacking teams. They usually struggle to come back in games if their defense lets them down by allowing a goal and that is not the recipe to winning in this league as you need a much more balanced team that can defend well but also scores goals. Corinthians is no threat at all to win this league title and they will be lucky to even finish in the top 4 this year with some of the other teams in this league this year. There is no value in Corinthians to win the title.  Athletico Paranaense +2800: Athletico PR is not the next team on the list to win the title as they are a little more down but they deserve an honorable mention here as they do have a very good team. They finished in 6th place in the table last season and have been improving a lot as a team over the last year. They finished 6th place in the league but also made a very deep run in Copa Libertadores as they went all the way to the finals where they lost to Flamengo. Athletico PR does not really have the talent to sustain a good enough season that will win them the title but they are definitely one of the better teams in Brasil this year and could easily see themselves in the top 4 by the end of the season. There is not a lot of value in this team winning the league title as it is very unlikely they have a chance, but there is a lot of value in them finishing top 4 at +400 so they are getting an honorable mention here. RecommendationsThere are a lot of good teams in Brasil this year that will be fighting for the Brasil Série A Title but only a few have a real shot at winning this league title as it is a very long season with plenty of other competitions sprinkled in so only the truly good and balanced teams can make a deep run. A few of the good teams in Brasil will still be good this year but are on the decline and it is best to avoid those clubs while sticking with the more consistent teams. Palmeiras at +175 and Fluminense at +450 have the best value for teams to win the title as these are the 2 strongest teams in Brasil this year overall and each of these sides can go on long sustained unbeaten runs but also have the depth to play many matches in multiple competitions. Internacional at +2000 also has some value in it as they finished 2nd place and have the potential to end up very high in the table if things break their way all year. The teams with the best value here to win the Brasil Série A Title this year are Palmeiras at +175, Fluminense at +450, and Internacional at +2000 as a dark horse. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 28, 2023

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and MLB.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with two games on ESPN in the conference quarterfinals. The Golden State Warriors host the Sacramento Kings at 8 PM ET. The Warriors took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 126-116 victory on the road against the Kings as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State is a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 235.The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies at 10:30 PM ET. The Grizzlies pulled within a 3-2 margin in this series with a 116-99 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Lakers are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games on its slate in the conference quarterfinals. The New York Islanders are at home against the Carolina Hurricanes on TBS at 7:08 PM ET. The Islanders pulled within a 3-2 margin in the series with a 3-2 victory on the road again the Hurricanes on Tuesday. New York is a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Boston Bruins travel to Florida to play the Panthers on TNT at 7:38 PM ET. The Rangers pulled within a 3-2 margin in the series with their 4-3 win on the road against the Bruins. Boston is a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Minnesota Wild host the Dallas Stars on TBS at 9:38 PM ET. The Stars took a 3-2 lead in the series with their 4-0 victory at home on Tuesday. The Wild are a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche visits Seattle to play the Kraken on TNT at 10:08 PM ET. The Kraken made this a 3-2 series with their 3-2 win on the road on Wednesday. The Avalanche are a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 4:10 PM ET as a -260 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs travel to Miami to play the Marlins as a -120 money-line road favorites with an over/under of 7.5. The Baltimore Orioles are in Detroit against the Tigers as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Washington against the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Seattle Mariners at 7:07 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Cleveland Guardians play in Boston against the Red Sox as a -140 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves visit New York to play the Mets as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers host the New York Yankees at 8:05 PM ET as a -215 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Houston Astros play at home against the Philadelphia Phillies as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The Cincinnati Reds play in Oakland to play the A’s at 9:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals at 10:10 PM ET  as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. 

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