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NBA Conference Championship Breakdown

by AAA Sports

Monday, May 15, 2023

No offense to the good folks in Miami and Denver, but at the NBA offices at 645 Fifth Ave. in New York City, the suits are quietly pulling for a ratings-bonanza Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers Finals – the winner of which would take, for at least 12 months, the lead in most championships won. They each have 17 pelts, although Celtics fans dispute the five Laker titles when the team dwelled in Minneapolis and append a huge asterisk to the 2020 Bubble title.The Heat and Nuggets will each attempt to throw monkey wrenches into the league Dream Matchup, and Boston-LA is hardly a foregone conclusion. The Heat generally make life miserable for the Celtics, especially in party-central Miami, and the Nuggets were the best team in the Western Conference and a full 10 games better than strong-finishing LA.That said, to the entrants:EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALSMiami HeatTo win ECF (+400)To win title (+1400)The Heat are heavy dogs against Boston, but they don’t go into this series unarmed. Bam Adebayo always seems to play well against the Celtics, Jimmy Butler has that familiar playoff fanaticism about him, Erik Spoelstra could coach circles around Joe Mazzulla, and Miami doesn’t seem to miss injured Tyler Herro in the least. That said, the Heat caught huge breaks when the Bucks spit the bit and the Knicks turned into pumpkins. Is it possible that the East’s 8 seed can catch lightning in a bottle for a third straight series?BOSTON CELTICSTo win ECF (-550)To win title (+100)Like the blind drunk driver who somehow makes it home in one piece, the inconsistent Celtics (five losses in the first two series) are where they wanted to be when the playoffs started. Jayson Tatum has shaken off his horrendous post-All-Star Game shooting slump, the rotation has been tightened and Robert Williams’s return to the starting lineup has jump-started the defense which has been so-so all year. The Celtics have trimmed the rotation to seven but can go deeper if needed. They need Jaylen Brown to stay hot, Tatum to play like Tatum and the D be good if not great. If that happens, Boston will be heading to the Finals for the second straight season.WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALSLos Angeles LakersTo win WCF (+130)To win title (+330)No one talks anymore about trading LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis and then blowing things up and starting from scratch. The LAL are a very live dog against the Nuggets. After their glacial 2-10 start to the season, everything has seemed to go right for LA. They got used to new coach Darvin Ham, mid-season moves paid immediate dividends and they got a huge lift from the unheralded Austin Reeves. Throw it all in the pot, and it enabled the Lakers to somehow emerge from the Play-In and then take down favored defending champion Golden State in the second round. Somehow, some way they can sniff their 18th banner.Denver NuggetsTo win WCF (-145)To win title (+230)The franchise has been to the playoffs 25 times since entering the league in the 1970s, and every playoff series has ended in a loss. But they have huge advantages as they try to win their first-ever championship. For one, they have the best big (and many feel the best player, period) in Nikola Jokic. They are also nearly invincible at home – 6-0 in the playoffs and 34-7 in the regular season. And if there was any doubt that Denver is ready this time after so many playoff disappointments, look at their series domination of the star-filled Suns in the WC semifinals.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/15/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 15, 2023

The Monday sports card features action in the NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with the Dallas Stars playing at home against the Seattle Kraken in the conference semifinals on ESPN at 7:10 PM ET. The Kraken forced a Game 7 with their 6-3 victory on Saturday. Dallas is a -190 money-line favorite, with the total set at 6. The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals at 4:05 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Mets pitch David Peterson against the Nationals' Patrick Corbin. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles at 6:35 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Angels send out Shohei Ohtani to battle against the Orioles' Grayson Rodrguez. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET. Alex Manoah pitches for Toronto against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Yankees. The Seattle Mariners visit Boston to play the Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Mariners send out George Kirby to pitch against the Red Sox's Tanner Houck. The Milwaukee Brewers play at St. Louis Cardinals at 7:45 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 8. The Brewers pitch Freddy Peralta to battle against the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty. The Atlanta Braves are in Texas to play the Rangers. The Braves pitch Charlie Morton to pitch against the Rangers' pitcher yet to be named. The Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs at 8:10 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Framber Valdes takes the hill for the Astros against Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. The Cincinnati Reds are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Reds tap Hunter Greene to pitch against the Rockies' Conner Seabold. Two games throw out the first pitch at 9:40 PM ET. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Michael Wacha pitches for the Padres against Brad Keller for the Royals. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Oakland to play the A’s as a -200 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Diamondbacks pitch Merrill Kelly against Drew Rucinski for the A's. The San Francisco Giants are at home against the Philadelphia Phillies at 9:45 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Giants tap Alex Wood to battle against Bailey Falter for the Phillies. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Minnesota Twins at 10:10 PM ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Noah Syndergaard pitches for the Dodgers against Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Liverpool travels to Leicester City n the USA Network at 3 PM ET. The Reds have won six matches in a row after their 1-0 victory against Brentford on May 6th. The Red Foxes are winless in their last three matches after a 5-3 loss at Fulham last Monday. Liverpool is a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 14, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Sunday, May 14, 2023

I've gotten a real kick out of hockey fans who are stunned at the Seattle Kraken and the run they've enjoyed.Fact is, when you have a red-hot goaltender who is a veteran, you can go a long way in the postseason.Thus, Game 7 awaits.We may or may not know who will be in one half of the Western Conference Final after Sunday's lone game, with the Vegas Golden Knights visiting the Edmonton Oilers.Thanks to the Kraken crushing the Dallas Stars on Saturday, we'll find out who emerges from that series on Monday in Game 7 - the second straight decisive seventh for the second-year franchise.Jordan Eberle scored twice, Eeli Tolvanen had a goal and two assists, and the Kraken beat the Stars 6-3 on Saturday night. Veteran netminder Philipp Grubauer stopped 20 shots for the win.Gru beat his former team, the Colorado Avalanche, in seven games in the opening round, with Game 7 played in Denver. Now he has a chance to send the Kraken into the West Final against the Golden Knights or Oilers.With Seattle winning at home, road teams are now 40-31 in the postseason, while underdogs improved to 34-36 in the postseason with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $1100.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, and after Saturday's game went high, the Under is now on a 23-18 run. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now 38-32-1.The overall tally for overtime games sits at 18 this postseason. Road teams are 13-5 in those games.Quick look inside the NBA... There were no games Saturday, as we have one final conference semi to finish, as Game 7 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics is today. The Sixers have covered six of seven on the road, and nine of 12 overall. Conversely, Boston has covered nine of 13 at home and 11 of 16 overall.Overall in this series, as we lead up to Game 7, the Celtics are on an 8-3 ATS run.Yesterday I hit my XFL Playoff Game of the Year on the Arlington Renegades winning the championship OUTRIGHT with my biggest play for the day. For Sunday, it's time for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and I love this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics. I've hit 25 of my last 38 NBA Side releases, and roll into Sunday on an overall run of 38-22-2 in the postseason for $13,700 NET$. One game, one play to focus on: my NBA SIDE WINNER # 26 of 39.On the MLB diamond on Saturday, four of the 14 underdogs won. One game was suspended. The most impressive pup might have been the New York Yankees (+125 DraftKings) in a marathon 9-8 win over the Tampa Bay Rays.I'm now 72-53-2 for $15,430 since April 17, including my Interleague Dog of the Month on May 2, when I delivered the Diamondbacks over the Rangers. Today, I've got my MLB INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL, NBA and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/14/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 14, 2023

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs conclude the conference semifinals with the Boston Celtics hosting the Philadelphia 76ers on ABC at 3:30 PM ET. The Celtics forced a seventh game in this series with their 95-86 victory as a 2.5-point road favorite on Thursday. Boston is a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 201 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with the Edmonton Oilers playing at home against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals on ESPN at 7:10 PM ET. The Golden Knights took a 3-2 series with their 4-3 win at home on Friday. The Oilers are a -195 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians on Peacock at 11:35 AM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8. The New York Mets play in Washington against the Nationals on Peacock at 12:35 PM ET to continue their suspended game on Saturday due to rain. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Rays are in New York to play the Yankees as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 1:37 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners visit Detroit to play the Tigers as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds as a -165 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games begin at 2:10 PM ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -165 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Houston Astros are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -165 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The Texas Rangers travel to Oakland to play the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The San Francisco Giants are in Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -145 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets play in Washington against the Nationals at 4:35 PM ET as a -205 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features the St. Louis Cardinals visiting Boston to play the Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET. The Cardinals are a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League continues with three matches. Two games begin at 9 AM ET. Brentford plays at home against West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City plays at Everton on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Arsenal is at home against Brighton and Hove Albion on the USA Network at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.

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Don't Follow the Money in XFL and USFL Games!

by Al McMordie

Saturday, May 13, 2023

The XFL Championship game was played Saturday night.  I released the Arlington Renegades +6 as my XFL Football Game of the Year 12 days ago, on May 1, following the conclusion of the semi-final games.  At kickoff, the Renegades were a 9.5-point underdog at Circa Sportsbook on the closing line.  Three hours before the game, I received an email from a client.  He wrote, "all the money is on DC.  Doesn't make me feel confident in (your Game of the Year) pick now."  Even though the steam was on the other side, I wasn't concerned.  I've been handicapping sports since 1978, and tracking point spread movement along the way.  One of the many things I've learned in my 45 years of handicapping is that you cannot simply "follow the money" if you want to be a successful bettor.  I don't even pay attention to the money moves when I analyze the games.  Indeed, most of the time (like here, with my XFL play), I'm releasing my picks at the start of the football week, or early in the morning with basketball, before the money has even come in on a side.Anyway, as I mentioned, I do track point spread movement -- even though it never even comes into play when I make my selections.  And one of the things I have been aware of is that the money has been HORRIBLE in these XFL and USFL football leagues.  On podcasts, I have often called these minor football leagues the "Overreaction Leagues."  What I mean by that is bettors and oddsmakers -- most likely due to the short histories of these leagues -- completely overreact to small samples of data.  I've hit 64% in the XFL/USFL the last two years by often taking advantage of what I've considered to be overreactions.So, when the line on Arlington moved from +6 to +9.5, my confidence wasn't daunted, given how bad the money has been this year in the USFL and XFL games.  Of course, I would have rather had +9.5 than +6.  But it didn't matter, as Arlington blew out DC from the get-go, and won outright, 35-26, for an easy XFL Game of the Year Winner.  Let's take a look at this year's XFL and USFL games to see just how bad the money has been (games that didn't move at least a half-point at Circa Sportsbook aren't listed).  All results are based on the closing line at Circa.XFL Football LeagueWeek 1Renegades (Open -2, Close -3.5), LoseRoughnecks (Open PK, Close -3), WinSea Dragons (Open +1, Close -3), LoseWeek 2Sea Dragons (Open +2, Close -4.5), LoseVipers (Open +1, Close -4), LoseBrahmas (Open -1, Close-4), WinRoughnecks (Open -3, Close -4.5), WinWeek 3Sea Dragons (Open PK, Close -4), TieRenegades (Open -6, Close -8), LoseRoughnecks (Open -4, Close -5), WinWeek 4Sea Dragons (Open -3, Close -5.5), WinRoughnecks (Open -9, Close -9.5), WinVipers (Open +7, Close +5.5), LoseBattlehawks (Open -2, Close -4), WinWeek 5Roughnecks (Open -3, Close -6.5), LoseBattlehawks (Open +3, Close +2), LoseGuardians (Open +9, Close +7), WinBrahmas (Open +2, Close +1), LoseWeek 6Sea Dragons (Open -6, Close -8.5), LoseVipers (Open +4, Close +2), LoseBrahmas (Open +5, Close +4), WinRoughnecks (Open +3, Close +2), LoseWeek 7Sea Dragons (Open -4, Close -5), WinGuardians (Open +12, Close +9), WinRoughnecks (Open -3, Close -4), LoseWeek 8Battlehawks (Open -4, Close -5), LoseGuardians (Open +2, Close -2), LoseRoughnecks (Open -4, Close -6.5), LoseSea Dragons (Open +2, Close -1.5), LoseWeek 9Roughnecks (Open -6, Close -6.5), LoseBrahmas (Open -1, Close -2), TieDefenders (Open -8, Close -10), LoseBattlehawks (Open -2, Close -3.5), LoseWeek 10Battlehawks (Open -7, Close -9), WinDefenders (Open -3, Close -4.5), LoseRoughnecks (Open +3, Close PK), WinSea Dragons (Open -6, Close -11.5), WinPlayoffs - SemifinalsRoughnecks (Open -6, Close -8), LoseSea Dragons (Open +6, Close PK), LosePlayoffs - ChampionshipDefenders (Open -6, Close -9.5), LoseThis season, in the XFL Football league, the sides that drew the money went 14-24-2 ATS.USFL Football LeagueWeek 1Stars (Open -2, Close -3.5), WinBreakers (Open -3, Close -7), TieWeek 2Breakers (Open -4, Close -7.5), LoseShowboats (Open +9, Close +5.5), LoseGenerals (Open -2, Close -7), WinStars (Open -3, Close -4), LoseWeek 3Stallions (Open -5, Close -8), LoseGamblers (Open +2, Close -8), LoseStars (Open -4, Close -7), LosePanthers (Open -3, Close -6), LoseWeek 4Gamblers (Open +3, Close +2), WinGenerals (Open +4, Close +2), LoseStallions (Open -6, Close -10), LoseWeek 5Maulers (Open +4, Close +3), WinGamblers (Open +6, Close +5.5), WinGenerals (Open -5, Close -7), LoseBreakers (Open -7, Close -7.5), LoseWeek 6Maulers (Open PK, Close -3), LoseStallions (Open -3, Close -5), WinBreakers (Open -6, Close -8), LoseGenerals (Open +3, Close -5.5), LoseWeek 7Stallions (Open -1, Close -4), TieMaulers (Open +4, Close -3), LoseGamblers (Open -3, Close -4), LoseGenerals (Open -4, Close -7.5), LoseWeek 8Maulers (Open +3, Close +1.5), WinStallions (Open -6, Close -7.5), LoseGenerals (Open +2, Close -3), Lose Breakers (Open -2, Close -3), WinWeek 9Maulers (Open +4, Close -2), WinShowboats (Open -1, Close -2), LoseGamblers (Open +5, Close +4.5), LoseGenerals (Open +4, Close -2.5), WinWeek 10Maulers (Open +4, Close +3.5), WinShowboats (Open +5, Close +4), LoseStars (Open +3.5, Close -1), LosePlayoffs - SemifinalsMaulers (Open +1, Close -3.5), WinBreakers (Open +4, Close +3.5), LosePlayoffs - ChampionshipStallions (Open -7, Close -9.5), Win[Editor's Note:  This article was originally written May 13, but has been updated throughout the USFL season following the initial publication.]In the USFL Football league, the sides that drew the money went 13-24-2 ATS.What we can see from this is that if you followed the money, you would have gone 27-48-4 ATS combined in XFL and USFL Football games this season.The bottom line is that if one wants to succeed at sports handicapping, it's best to have a sound methodology, and to stay true to it, while ignoring things like what others are betting on.  I couldn't care less where the money has gone, or what the public is betting on.  I don't go with or against either of those things; I just march to the beat of my own drum.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie 

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 13, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Saturday, May 13, 2023

Two home teams nobody expected to win got it done in impressive fashion last night.And with that, the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers are moving on to the Western Conference Finals in the NBA Playoffs, and the top-seeded Vegas Golden Knights lead their Western Conference semifinal with the Edmonton Oilers, 3-2.Then there's the South Beach storyline. Man, I can only imagine the parties taking place in Miami.The Heat knocked off the New York Knicks and advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. At the same time, the Florida Panthers went into Toronto and finished off the Maple Leafs with a 3-2 overtime win to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.Impressive all-around night, with some incredible storylines in days to come.With Florida winning in Toronto, and Edmonton losing in Vegas, road teams are now 40-30 in the postseason. And, underdogs are now 33-36 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $1000.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, and after Friday's totals split, the Under is now on a 23-17 run. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now 37-32-1.The overall tally for overtime games sits at 18 this postseason after Florida's victory came in an extra frame. Road teams are 13-5 in those games.Quick look inside the NBA, Important to note, there are no games today, as we have one final conference semi to finish, as Game 7 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics is tomorrow. The Sixers have covered six of seven on the road, and nine of 12 overall. Conversely, Boston has covered nine of 13 at home and 11 of 16 overall.Overall in this series, as we lead up to Game 7, the Celtics are on an 8-3 ATS run.On the MLB diamond last night, five of the 13 underdogs won. Two games were at pick'em prices. The most impressive pup might have been the Chicago Cubs (+140 at DraftKings), as they went into Minneapolis and beat the Twins, 6-2.I went 3-1 on Friday, including my Division Game of the Month on the Mets getting it done over Washington. I'm now on a 70-51-2 run with $15,580 NET$ since April 17. For Saturday, I have one MLB winner waiting for you, and it's the best value I see. It just happens to be a total. I'm on a 20-11 run with ALL SPORTS TOTALS, and tonight I make it 21 of 32 with my MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/13/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 13, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in the NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with one game in the conference semifinals on ESPN. The Dallas Stars travel to Seattle to play the Kraken at 7:10 PM ET. The Stars took a 3-2 lead in the series with a 3-2 victory at home on Thursday. Dallas is a -150 money-line road favorite, with the total set at 6. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays play in New York against the Yankees at 1:05 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 10:10 PM ET. The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds as a -200 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Seattle Mariners are in Detroit against the Tigers as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 2:10 PM ET as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Atlanta Braves at 3:07 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Mets visit Washington to play the Nationals at 4:05 PM ET as a -145 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Texas Rangers play in Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Boston Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals at 4:10 PM ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 10. The Los Angeles Angels are in Cleveland to play the Guardians at 6:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:05 PM ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 7:10 PM ET as a -165 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games are featured on Fox at 7:15 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres as a -150 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox play at home against the Houston Astros as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more games complete the MLB card at 8:10 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Colorado to play the Rockies as a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. Matchweek 36 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Newcastle United plays at Leeds United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Five EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts Tottenham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Crystal Palace is at home against Bournemouth as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United hosts Wolverhampton as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Fulham is at Southampton in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NBA and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/12/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 12, 2023

The Friday sports cxard features action in the NBA, NHL, and MLB.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with two playoff games in the conference semifinals on ESPN. The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in the sixth game of their Eastern Conference series at 7:30 PM ET. The Knicks kept this series alive with a 112-103 victory at home as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Heat hold a 3-2 lead in this series. Miami is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 208.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against the Golden State Warriors in the sixth game of their Western Conference series at 10 PM ET. The Warriors kept their postseason alive with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Lakers are a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 221. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games in the conference semifinals on TNT. The Toronto Maple Leafs are at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:10 PM ET in the fifth game of their Eastern Conference semifinals series. The Maple Leafs avoided a sweep in this series by beating the Panthers on the road, 2-1, on Wednesday. Florida holds a 3-1 series lead. Toronto is a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights at 10:10 PM ET in the fifth game of their Western Conference semifinals series. The Oilers evened this series at 2-2 with their 4-1 win at home against the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Edmonton is a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds as a -145 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners play at Detroit against the Tigers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. The New York Mets visit Washington to play the Nationals as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in New York to play the Yankees. The Atlanta Braves play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 10. Three MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Houston Astros visit Chicago to play the White Sox as a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Chicago Cubs on Apple TV+ as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Kansas City Royals on Apple TV+ as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Colorado Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -150 money-line road favorite with a total of 11.5. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. The San Francisco Giants play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers are in Oakland against the A’s as a -190 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres at 10:10 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 12, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Friday, May 12, 2023

Due to limited time for Friday, I have an abbreviated recap today.The NBA Playoffs saw both road teams win last night, with the Boston Celtics staying alive in the Eastern Conference semifinals, and the Denver Nuggets moving on to the Western Conference Finals.Conversely, the NHL Playoffs saw both home teams win, as the Carolina Hurricanes move on to the Eastern Conference Finals (a play I delivered with my NHL SIDE WINNER # 19 OF 31), and the Dallas Stars taking a 3-2 lead over the Seattle Kraken.Road teams dropped to 39-29 in the postseason. And, underdogs are now 31-36 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $700.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, and after Thursday's totals split, the under is now on a 22-16 run. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now 36-31-1.The overall tally for overtime games sits at 17 this postseason after Carolina's victory came in an extra frame. Road teams are 12-5 in those games.I'm on a 19-12 run with my NHL sides. I'm also on a 68-48-2 run for $14,500 since April 17, including a 14-10 run in the postseason for$4,950 net profit. Since Day 1, I'm 90-78-2 for $15,350 NET$ in hockey. Do not miss my NHL SECOND ROUND DOG OF THE YEAR which happens to be my NHL SIDE WINNER # 20 OF 32.Quick look inside the NBA...While the West's No. 1 seed Denver awaits the winner of the Lakers-Warriors series, the Celtics forced a Game 7 back at home on Sunday.Important to note, the Sixers have covered six of seven on the road, and nine of 12 overall. Conversely, Boston has covered nine of 13 at home and 11 of 16 overall.Overall in this series as we lead up to Game 7, the Celtics are on an 8-3 ATS run.Tonight in the NBA I have ONE SIDE and ONE TOTAL, and have them bundled for you in one package. I'm on a 68-48-2 run for $14,500 since April 17, including a 37-21-2 roll in the NBA for $13,800 in the same span. Tonight I go 2-0 with my NBA PLAYOFF DOUBLE DIP.On the MLB diamond, there was an abbreviated card, and three of the five underdogs won. The sixth game was a pick'em. The most impressive pup was the Cincinnati Reds (+165 at DraftKings), as they beat the New York Mets 5-0. Keep an eye on the Reds for value numbers, as they're hitting a respectable .264 during a 9-6 stretch, and are averaging 4.6 runs per game in that span.Part of tonight's action includes a solid MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH, as I love the N.L. East showdown between the Nationals and Mets. Remember, I'm on a 68-48-2 run for $14,500 since April 17, including a 37-21-2 roll in the NBA for $13,800 in the same span. Tonight I cash my MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 11, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Watching last night's playoff action, two songs entered my head: "Wheels on the Bus" by an artist unknown, and "Back and Forth" by Cameo.Either one depicts what we're seeing in both the NBA and NHL conference semifinals.One night it's the road teams, the next it's home domination.Wednesday it was three home teams and only one road team getting it done, with three of them winning to stay alive in their respective playoff series.Let's start in the NHL, where the Toronto Maple Leafs went into Sunrise, Florida to defeat the Panthers and avoid being swept. Seemingly headed into another disappointing offseason, the Maple Leafs are indeed heading home, but for Game 5 on Friday.Joseph Woll stopped 24 shots in his first playoff start, and Mitch Marner and William Nylander scored for Toronto in a 2-1 victory.Then the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers took the ice, and things weren't as close as the early game.An angry group of Oilers skated through and around the Knights after losing Game 3, dominating Vegas in every facet in a 4-1 win.Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a goal and an assist to lead the Oilers, who got additional goals from Nick Bjugstad, Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm en route to a four-goal lead in the second period.Game 5 of the best-of-seven series is Friday night at Las Vegas, and Game 6 will be back in Edmonton on Sunday.Road teams improved to 39-27 in the postseason. And, underdogs are now 31-34 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $900.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, and after Wednesday's totals both stayed under the posted numbers, the under is now on a 21-15 run. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now 35-30-1.The overall tally for overtime games sits at 16 this postseason. Road teams are 12-4 in those games.I'm on an 18-12 run with my NHL sides, and tonight I have one winner for you from hockey, as I zero in on the best value on ice. And remember, I'm on an 89-78-2 run the entire NHL season, for $14,350 net profit, and 13-10 in the postseason for $3,950 net profit.In the NBA, we had two games, with the New York Knicks scrapping their way to a 112-103 win over the Miami Heat to stay alive in their series, and the defending champion Golden State Warriors dominating the Los Angeles Lakers 121-106 to extend the series to six games.Stephen Curry scored 27 points and dished out eight assists, Andrew Wiggins added 25 points, seven rebounds and five assists, and the reigning champion Warriors are two steps away from negating a 3-1 series deficit. Rallying on the strength of this core group in the postseason is nothing new, which makes Game 6 in Los Angeles even more intriguing. The Lakers opened a 2-point favorite and quickly moved to 2-1/2 across the board. Problem for the Warriors is they're mired in ATS slides of 1-5 after a straight-up win and 0-5 after an ATS win. Flipside, the Lakers have covered five straight after SU and ATS setbacks.In the earlier game, Jalen Brunson erupted for 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists and played all 48 minutes in a season-extending performance. The Heat were looking to become just the second No. 8 seed to reach the conference finals. They'll get their chance Friday night at home, as the series returns to Miami for Game 6. The Heat have covered seven of their last 10 meetings with the Knicks in Miami, and four of the five in this series.I'm on a 4-0-1 run with my Second Round Plays of the Year, and tonight I deliver my ONE AND ONLY NBA SECOND-ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR. Remember I'm on a 37-20-2 roll in the NBA since April 17, for $14,900 NET$. I'm also on a 23-12-1 run with NBA SIDES! And tonight I add to the bankroll with MY BEST PLAY from the Conference Semifinals. Jump on board now for my ONE AND ONLY NBA SECOND-ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR.On the MLB diamond, seven of the 12 underdogs cashed tickets, while there were a few pick'em games I won't add to the ledger. The Colorado Rockies (+120 at DraftKings) continued to impress with a plus-price on the road, as they defeated the Pirates in Pittsburgh, 4-3. One of the biggest underdogs was out of the American League West, where the Texas Rangers (+160 DKS) won in Seattle with a 4-3 win over the Mariners.I'm taking baseball off with a very short card. I'll be back Friday with MLB action.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/11/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 11, 2023

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and MLB.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with two playoff games in the conference semifinals on ESPN. The Boston Celtics travel to Philadelphia to play the 76ers at 7:30 PM ET. The 76ers took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 115-103 upset victory as a 7.5-underdog on the road on Tuesday. The Celtics are a 2.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Denver Nuggets at 10 PM ET. The Nuggets have a 3-2 series lead after their 118-102 victory at home as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Suns are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games in the conference semifinals on TNT. The Carolina Hurricanes are at home against the New Jersey Devils at 7:10 PM ET. The Hurricanes took a 3-1 lead in this series with their 6-1 victory on the road against the Devils. Carolina is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Dallas Stars host the Seattle Kraken at 9:40 PM ET. The Stars evened this series at 2-2 with their 6-3 victory on the road against the Kraken on Tuesday. Dallas is a -190 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The New York Mets visit Cincinnati to play the Reds at 12:35 PM ET. The Mets ended a three-game losing streak with a 2-1 win against Cincinnati yesterday. The Reds have lost two of their last three games. Kodai Senga pitches for New York against Derek Law for Cincinnati. The Mets are a -195 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The San Diego Padres play in Minnesota against the Twins at 1:10 PM ET. The Padres lost their third game in their last four games with a 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday. The Twins ended a three-game losing streak with that victory. San Diego turns to Yu Darvish as their starting pitcher to go against Minnesota’s Bailey Ober. The Padres are a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Chicago White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. The Royals won for the third time in their last four games with a 9-1 victory against the White Sox on Wednesday. Chicago has lost two of their last three games. Brady Singer pitches for Kansas City against Mike Clevinger for the White Sox. The Royals are a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are in New York to play the Yankees at 7:05 PM ET. The Rays have lost two in a row after a 2-1 loss at Baltimore yesterday. The Yankees won their third straight game with an 11-3 victory against Oakland on Wednesday. Tampa Bay turns to Drew Rasmussen to battle against New York’s Domingo German. The Rays are a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games complete the MLB card at 9:40 PM ET. The San Francisco Giants travel to Arizona to play the Diamondbacks. The Giants lost for the third time in their last four games with an 11-6 loss to Washington on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks lost their third game in their last four in a 5-4 setback to Miami yesterday. Alex Cobb takes the ball for San Francisco to pitch against Tommy Henry for Arizona. The Giants are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Texas Rangers play in Oakland against the A’s. The Rangers won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 4-3 victory at Seattle yesterday. The A’s are on a four-game losing streak after their loss in New York to the Yankees on Wednesday. Texas has tapped Nathan Eovaldi to duel against a starting pitcher yet to be named for Oakland.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 10, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Room service continues to serve postseason guests well in the NHL and NBA's respective postseasons. The road teams went 3-1 in four playoff games on Tuesday, splitting out in the NBA and sweeping the board in the NHL.Carolina was dominant in its Eastern Conference semifinal in New Jersey, pushing the Devils to the brink of elimination with Game 5 back in Raleigh.It's no shock to me, as the Hurricanes, who are now up 3-1, were the preseason favorites in the Eastern Conference, as I told you yesterday with my complimentary winner.It only took a five-minute span in the season period last night, for the Canes to establish their presence - and dominance - in the 6-1 win. The Dallas Stars also looked like their usual selves, as they dispatched the Seattle Kraken, 6-3. An empty-net goal provided the final margin, as the Kraken did look competitive during the final stretch of the third period.Joe Pavelski scored his sixth goal of the series as part of a four-goal second period for Dallas, which takes the series home with home ice tilted in its favor and this now a best-of-three set.With the two road wins in Tuesday's playoff games, road teams improved to 38-26 in the postseason. And, underdogs are now 31-33 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of roughly $1000.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, and after Tuesday's totals both ran north of the posted numbers, the under is now on a 19-15 run. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now 35-28-1.The overall tally for overtime games sits at 16 this postseason. Road teams are 12-4 in those games.I've zeroed in on the TOP TOTAL for the SECOND ROUND OF THE NHL PLAYOFFS. I'm 3-0 with my Second Round Plays of the Year already, and tonight I have the BEST OVER/UNDER for the 2nd Round. Remember, I'm 89-77-2 for $15,350 NET$ since the start of the season. I'm 13-9 in the postseason for $4,950 NET$. Tonight I make it four straight Plays of the Year in the conference semifinals with my 2ND ROUND CONFERENCE TOTAL OF YEAR.In the NBA, we had two games, with the Philadelphia 76ers making a statement with a 115-103 win at the Boston Celtics, and the Denver Nuggets re-establishing its role in the West with a 118-102 win over the Phoenix Suns.Nikola Jokic was brilliant last night, scoring 29 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists for his 10th career playoff triple-double in the 16-point win over the Suns. The Joker drained five 3-pointers. The home team is now 5-0 in this series. If we end up back in the Mile High City for Game 7 on Sunday, keep in mind the Nuggets own the NBA’s best home record at 39-7, including 5-0 in the playoffs.In the earlier game, Joel Embiid scored 33 points as Philadelphia made it look easy in taking a 3-2 lead in the East semifinals with its 12-point win in Beantown. The 76ers led by as many as 21 points in the fourth quarter, home fans booed the Celtics, and now the series can come to a close Thursday in Game 6 in Philly, where the Sixers have covered 27 of 40.I'm riding a 67-45-2 run for $16,700 NET$ since 4/17 into tonight. And part of that run is a 37-19-2 showing for $16,000 NET$. Huge game in the Big Apple tonight, as the Miami Heat and New York Knicks return to Madison Square Garden for Game 5. The Heat look to close things out, and the Knicks look to stay alive. BLANK CHECK WINNER # 31 OF 53 is an NBA LOCK.On the MLB diamond, seven of the 15 underdogs cashed tickets. The most impressive pups coming from the National League with the Colorado Rockies (+150 at DraftKings) crushing the Pirates in Pittsburgh, 10-1, and the Cincinnati Reds (+140 DKS) at home in a 7-6 win over the New York Mets.I'm taking baseball off with a slew day games highlighting the full card.

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