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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 07/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jul 01, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in MLB, the CFL, and the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The San Diego Padres travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 1:40 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with the total set at 11.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The New York Yankees play in St. Louis against the Cardinals on FS1 in the first game of their doubleheader at 2:15 PM ET. Luis Severino takes the ball for the Yankees to pitch against Jack Flaherty for the Cardinals. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 3:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Houston Astros as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -145 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -200 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles host the Minnesota Twins as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.The Chicago White Sox visit Oakland to play the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. The New York Mets play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Miami Marlins as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Four MLB games begin at 7:15 PM ET. The Yankees are on the road against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader. Three MLB games are involved in Fox’s regional coverage. Chicago hosts Cleveland, with the Cubs tapping Marcus Stroman to battle against the Guardians Tanner Bibee. The Cubs are a -135 money-line favorite. Tampa Bay travels to Seattle with Tyler Glasnow taking the mound for the Rays to duel against George Kirby for the Mariners. The Rays are a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Los Angeles plays in Kansas City with Julio Urias getting the ball for the Dodgers to pitch against Daniel Lynch for the Royals. The Detroit Tigers play in Colorado against the Rockies at 9:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:07 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers travel to Montreal to play the Alouettes on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Blue Bombers lost their first game of the season in a 30-6 upset loss at home against British Columbia as a 6-point favorite on June 22nd. The Alouettes won their second straight game to begin their season with a 38-12 upset win at Hamilton as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Winnipeg is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5. The group stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup continues with two matches on FS1 at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas. Guadeloupe battles Cuba at 7:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Canada faces Guatemala at 9:30 PM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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The Collapse of the Miami Heat Offense in their Postseason Run

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Miami Heat were the biggest surprise of the NBA playoffs as they reached the finals despite having to qualify for the postseason through the play-in tournament. Despite losing their initial play-in game at home to the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat demonstrated their internal belief in their culture by going to upset the Eastern Conference top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, the New York Knicks, and then the defending Easter Conference champion Boston Celtics to reach the NBA finals to face the Denver Nuggets.Yet Miami hit a wall with their scoring this postseason. After scoring 128 points in taking a 3-0 lead against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals, they then scored under 100 points in five of their last eight games going into Game 5 of the NBA finals against the Nuggets. Perhaps the nagging ankle injury that Jimmy Butler re-aggravated has removed the x-factor from their offensive attack. Butler was averaging only 21.8 points per game in this series, with the lift and explosion when attacking the rim seemingly gone. After scoring 30 or more points five times in his first eleven playoff games from the Milwaukee series to Game 1 of the Celtics series, he had not scored more than 28 points since. The diminished threat Butler posed in attacking the rim allowed the Nuggets to pay more attention to outside shooters. Perhaps the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo had finally begun to take their toll. While Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson had all taken turns being the hero with their 3-point shooting, it is difficult to have to continually rely upon role players that were undrafted free agents coming out of college. Perhaps Miami was simply due to seeing their red-hot 3-point shooting fall back down to earth. After leading all teams in the playoffs with a 39.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land, the Heat had not made more than 33% of their 3-pointers in three of the first four games in the finals. For the series, they were making 36.6% of their 3-pointers which was still above their regular season average of 34.4%. In their 108-95 loss at home to Denver in Game 4, Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 45 points yet they only made 17 of their 36 shots to get there. Vincent and Strus combined to make only one of their ten shots from the field, and they missed all seven of their shots from behind the arc. Butler and Adebayo needed help but the unexpected scoring efforts from the supporting cast petered out. In their last eight games going into Game 5 of the finals, the Heat were averaging 99.4 points per game and thThe ey had only scored more than 103 points once. They have a 43.4% shooting percentage in their last eight games. In this series, Miami was averaging 98.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting after the first four games. Given the wear and tear of the playoff season, it is difficult to expect the Heat to suddenly break out of these negative trends, especially given their injury situation.Denver deserves credit for their defensive play as well. While the trademark of this team is their efficiency on offense, head coach Michael Malone had continued to preach the need to improve their defense as the final piece to a championship puzzle. The Nuggets were allowing 106 points per game in the playoffs going into Game 5 of the NBA finals, down by more than five points from their regular season average. After beginning the NBA finals with a defensive rating of 111.7 in the playoffs, that mark has dropped to 111.1 after the first four games against the Heat, ranking the fifth lowest in the playoffs. Miami has an offensive rating of 109.5 in this series, which is -3.8 points per 100 possessions lower than their regular season mark which ranked only 25th in the league. The Heat were scoring 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions in the NBA finals versus what they accomplished against Boston last round. The length of the Denver defenders were giving Miami problems. The Heat had played seven of their last nine games under the number after scoring 95 or fewer points in their previous game.Miami played well in the first half of Game 5 in the face of elimination. They scored 51 points and went into halftime with a seven-point lead. Yet the Heat could only score 38 points in the second half as they watched Denver win the game, 94-89, to claim their first NBA title. Miami shot 34% from the field and made only nine shots from 3-point land from a 26% shooting percentage from behind the 3-point line.In the end, the Heat scored more than 103 points just once in their final eight games in the playoffs, and they did not score more than 99 points in five of those games. Despite the oddsmakers moving their over/under number consistently down from its 217 peak in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals and its NBA finals peak of 219 in Game 1, seven of Miami's last eight games of the season finished under the season.Bettors who jumped on board those unders trends were richly rewarded. Good luck - TDG.

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Buyer Beware When It Comes to Backing Dane Dunning

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Texas Rangers had big expectations this season for Jacob DeGrom, who was their big offseason splash in the free-agent market. Yet the Rangers only got six starts and 30 1/3 innings of work from the 35-year-old before an injury that requires Tommy John surgery that will keep him for at least the rest of the 2023 season. Dane Dunning took his place in the Texas starting rotation when DeGrom first got injured earlier in the year. He had a 4-8 record in his 29 starts last year while posting a 4.46 era and a 1.43 whip in 153 1/3 innings. With the Rangers acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to DeGrom in the offseason, Dunning was initially the odd man out. Yet after the DeGrom injury, Dunning took full advantage of his opportunity.The 28-year-old right-hander went into his most recent start on Wednesday, June 28th, with a 6-1 record with a 2.76 era and a 1.17 whip in seventeen appearances as a starter or out of the bullpen this season. Despite those impressive numbers, his expected era was almost double his current era at 5.09. He had been pretty fortunate to have a 77.9% strand rate for runners left on base, above the MLB average in the 72% range. The league batting average for balls put into play is in the .290 range yet Dunning had a babip of .267. He had only struck out 14.0% of the batters he had faced, and he had walked 7.3% of opposing hitters. Pitchers that keep their era below 3.00 with strikeout and walk rates like that usually coax ground balls over 50% of the time for the batted balls they allow into play. Dunning’s ground ball rate was 46.7% which is a three-year low. Dunning continued to defy expectations with a dominant performance against the Detroit Tigers in that game. He came one out shy of a complete game while only giving up only four hits and two runs in those 8 2/3 innings of work. He begins July as one of the bigger surprises in MLB with a 7-1 record that accompanies a 2.69 era and a 1.10 whip. Yet how much should be read into that performance against a Tigers team that went into the last day of the month having scored more than three runs just twice in their last six games? Detroit was averaging only 3.8 runs per game this season with a .229 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and a slugging percentage of .363 going into their Friday night game in Colorado. Dunning still has an above-average strand rate of 77.9% of runners left on base when he finishes an inning. His batting average of the balls put into play against him is now. 258. Neither of those numbers is likely to remain as favorable. Despite striking out ten batters on Wednesday, his strikeout remains 15.8% of all the batters he has faced. He is averaging only 5.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Perhaps he can keep up a fantastic era, yet he is only inducing ground balls in 48.6% of the batted balls being put into play against him. At this point, Dunning is being priced in as one of the most effective starting pitchers in the American League by the oddsmakers. With those additional numbers providing context, buyer beware for the bettor when it comes to backing Dunning for the second half of the MLB regular season. Good luck - TDG.

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Riding the Miami Heat (even in defeat) to Win Our 2022-23 NBA Game of the Year!

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Miami Heat were limping down the stretch in the NBA postseason with losses in six of their last eight games heading into Game Five of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. In the face of a crucial situation at home where they had the opportunity to even the series at 2-2, they instead lost by a 108-95 score as a 3-point underdog to give the Nuggets to return home to win the championship with a commanding 3-1 series lead. But we had been riding the Heat for much of the playoff season — and they offered tremendous value as a big underdog getting eight or so points. After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things were certainly dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they seemed like they would be a tough out. I had comfortably concluded that the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat were off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark had improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena in Game Two of the NBA Finals, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1 that came into play for that fifth game. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. The Heat had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They had perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat had also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. Miami had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent.The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver had been great all season — but one of the flaws of that group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it was not going to help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets had covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.    Miami did get off to a fast start in Game Five as they went into halftime with a 51-44 lead. And while the Nuggets only scored 40 points in the second half, the lack of reliable scoring options for the Heat reared its ugly head as they were only able to score 43 points in the second half. Denver won the game by a 94-89 score to claim their first NBA championship. But they did not cover the eight or so points they were laying — and we won our NBA Game of the Year on Miami plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Ignoring Zig-Zag and Puck Luck: Backing the Vegas Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup Clinching 9-3 Victory

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with a 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on June 10th. With the series returning to the Las Vegas strip three days late for Game Six, many bettors were tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida. It is a simple and easy formula that sometimes has success, especially in playoff series between good teams who can win on the road. Other bettors continued to be amazed at the “puck luck” that the Golden Knights enjoyed. After the first two games of the series, Vegas was scoring on 12.5% of their shot attempts — a number far above the 8.4% percentage on average for previous Stanley Cup winners at five-on-five even strength. Their goaltenders had a save percentage of .944 in the postseason which was also outperforming previous Stanley Cup winners that had averaged a .930 save percentage. A popular hockey metric is labeled PDO (it’s not an acronym, it comes from the online handle of the person who originally defended the value of this metric in an online forum) — it is a simple addition of save percentage and goal-scoring percentage per shot. A PDO of 100 is the average. A simplistic view of PDO would presume that teams with PDOs above 100 were experiencing good luck while teams with PDOs below 100 were saddled with bad luck. But we should expect Wayne Gretzky and Connor McDavid to have higher goal-scoring percentages than the rest of the league. Vezina Trophy-winning goaltenders are going to have higher save percentages. But it is interesting to compare Stanley Cup contenders with past Stanley Cup champions. The 2011 Boston Bruins had registered the highest PDO in NHL history with a 104.8 in that postseason. Vegas was crushing that mark with a 106.9 PDO.If the Golden Knights were in the middle of a best-of-31 series with the Panthers, then perhaps fading them based on that historically high PDO would make sense. But in a next-game situation, expecting the proverbial Regression Gods to suddenly show up is likely an act guilty of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Just because the roulette wheel landed red ten times in a row, betting on black is not suddenly a better investment. From what I observed in the waning moments of Game Four, I saw Game Five as a great opportunity to invest heavily on Vegas to win that game and clinch the Stanley Cup championship despite their puck luck and the temptation of the zig-zag model. From the often maligned “eye test”, I saw a Florida team that seemed already beaten. The Panthers had gotten their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics supported the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice the day before and was listed as questionable to play. Even if he did play, he would not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals had been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Vegas was not the only team that had been the beneficiary of “puck luck.” Florida’s success in winning close games obscured the fact that they had actually been outscored this postseason. Was this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve in Game Five with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team had been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. They were underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is perhaps the team’s best defensive forward (or second to Stone). Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy had the advantage of the last-line choice — so he could ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. It was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. Hill continued to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It had allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.These were the reasons why I endorsed the Golden Knights in Game Five as my NHL Game of the Year — and they responded with an overwhelming 9-3 victory to win the game and lift Lord Stanley’s Cup in front of their home fans. Tkachuk was not able to play and it was later revealed that he had suffered a broken sternum in the third game of the series. Vegas scored twice in the first period — and after Florida scored first in the second period, the Golden Knights responded with four unanswered goals in the second period to take a commanding 6-1 lead to cruise to the victory in the final 20 minutes. Models like the zig-zag theory can be helpful — especially if they are backed with strong empirical evidence from similar situations. Using analytics to identify overvalued and undervalued teams is important. But these are just two of the tools in the successful handicapper’s toolbox. The best handicapping occurs when one assesses a variety of arguments — and makes good decisions regarding what evidence to privilege. While there were many good reasons to back the Golden Knights in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals, the best evidence might have come from the eye test in the final moments of Game Four. Best of luck — Frank.

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2023 MLB End of June – Real or Fake: Miami Marlins

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

Miami has turned in a terrific month of June to sit with one of the better records in the National League as the All-Star break approaches. Can the Marlins stay in the mix as a NL wild card this season? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Miami Marlins, who were priced around +430 at the beginning of the season to make the playoffs.  Through June 29, the Marlins have an exactly even scoring differential, climbing out of what has been a negative number most of the season by going 19-7 and +45 in scoring in the month of June so far. Many expected a season of improvement for Miami but in a division with the 2021 World Series champions, the 2022 NL champions, and a Mets squad that spent a lot of money in the offseason, climbing the ladder to a playoff position in the NL East looked difficult.   The division picture has changed significantly however as while the Braves may be the best team in baseball, the Mets have been a huge disappointment and could be trade deadline sellers. Philadelphia has been competitive and is six games above .500 as a threat to make another late season run, but the Phillies don’t look quite as formidable as they did late last season.  Miami has undoubtedly had great fortune to earn this record as a 19-5 record in one-run results attests. Miami is also 4-1 in extra-inning games. The recent run of success in June has not been built on narrow wins, and the offense has improved its scoring in every month this season.  Miami’s record in the division is marginal going 11-12 vs. the NL East but they have seven games with the Braves already out of the way and will face Atlanta just three times in August and September. Miami’s record is also built on going 20-7 vs. the American League but that includes series wins over decent teams, going a combined 10-2 vs. Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, and the LA Angels. The remaining schedule for Miami does grade as the fourth most difficult in the NL as they still must face the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers in interleague play. The Marlins will also face the Dodgers six times, but they also still have 26 games remaining vs. the Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Tigers, and Mets.  While Luis Arraez chasing .400 is getting the headlines, Jorge Soler has been a top power hitter for the Marlins and Miami should receive a boost with the recent return of Jazz Chisolm, Jr. Miami has a low-strikeout lineup and the scoring numbers have been climbing upward in recent weeks even while still ranking in the bottom 10 of MLB for the season. The key for Miami staying relevant is an elite pitching staff as the Marlins are a top 10 team in MLB in opposing runs allowed, OPS allowed, and batting average allowed. Miami has allowed the second fewest home runs in MLB and is third in MLB with a 9.6 K/9 for the staff. Those numbers have come even while 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has not matched last season’s success. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett give the Marlins two high-ceiling left-handers while Eury Perez has also turned in very effective results. Edward Carbera is on the IL right now but could help the team late in the season. Bryan Hoeing has also looked like a useful option in the rotation as the depth on the staff looks excellent. The Miami bullpen has average season numbers but has been a key component to the success in close games and in the June surge.  Very few teams have the type of pitching that Miami has right now and while the Marlins are unlikely to be overly aggressive at the trade deadline, it seems unlikely that the Phillies will go all-in either, as the path to stay in wild card contention is there, even if catching the Braves in the division race will be a long shot.  Verdict on the 2023 Miami Marlins: Real Contender    

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2023 MLB End of June – Real or Fake: Arizona Diamondbacks

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

Arizona is the surprise leader in the loaded NL West, can the Diamondbacks maintain that pace to reach the playoffs? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were priced around +5000 at the beginning of the season to win the NL West.  Arizona’s Pythagorean record would put them at 44-38 instead of 48-34 but Arizona has put together three consecutive winning months. The scoring differential for Arizona is modest at just +34 through June 29, but Arizona is 0-3 in extra-inning games and just 11-12 in one-run results as they have not had great close game fortune to build the current record.  The schedule so far does bring some concern to the profile for Arizona, however with a 6-1 record against Colorado and a 5-1 record vs. Washington, faring exceptionally well against two of the worst teams in the National League. Arizona has also won 60 percent of its interleague games including going a combined 7-2 vs. Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. The Diamondbacks are just 11-10 vs. the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, a trio they still have 18 games remaining against.  Arizona may have some staying power thanks to its starting rotation; they have a true ace in Zac Gallen, while Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson have been effective enough this season. Kelly should return from the IL soon while Tommy Henry has offered promise as well. Zach Davies has pitched better than his numbers suggest and could provide acceptable returns the rest of the way if the Diamondbacks stick with him. Arizona will be a trade deadline candidate to consider upgrading the rotation as they will be a team to watch as the starting pitching market unfolds.  The Arizona offense has been the story however as quietly the Diamondbacks are the #5 scoring team in MLB while posting top six marks league-wide in batting average and OPS, while featuring the third lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Lourds Gurriel Jr., all own strikeout rates below 20 percent providing a great depth of batters that make pitchers work. Arizona is also third in MLB with 81 stolen bases while getting caught only 12 times, maximizing use of the new rules in 2023.  The challenge for Arizona comes from its division foes, however as the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could all be buyers at the trade deadline. Los Angeles was not expected to match the 100-win level of the past few seasons, but the Dodgers still look like a contender that may make a few aggressive additions. The Giants have played extremely well in the past two months and look like a serious playoff threat. San Diego is running out of time to climb back into the race, but all the numbers suggest the Padres deserve a much better record than the current 37-44 mark as they are a threat to make a late run.  The Dodgers have the second weakest remaining schedule of all NL teams while San Francisco also has a favorable remaining path as Arizona’s days on top of the division are likely numbered. It will be a great season of improvement for Arizona, but the Diamondbacks don’t look like a team that can hold up as a playoff team in the difficult NL West despite the current strong position.   Verdict on the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks: Fake Contender

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - June 30, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

In MLB on Thursday, we saw seven underdogs turn in a profitable night with a 7-4 mark, and two games being a pick. Yesterday's Big Dawg that barked loudest was once again the Pittsburgh Pirates (+175, DraftKings) with their 5-4 win over the San Diego Padres.San Diego is in a dangerous spot as it opens a weekend set with the Reds. The Padres arrive in Cincinnati mired in a five-game skid, and their offense is damn-near non-existent. They're hitting just .223 since June 24 and averaging a mere 2.4 runs per game during the five-game slide. And for a power-packed lineup they're supposed to be proud of, they've hit just three homers the past five games - fifth-lowest the last seven days.Thursday I nailed my MLB Winner #21 of 30 on the Phillies over Chicago. I'm No. 2 on the Leaderboard the L7 days with $5,900 NET$. The winning continues tonight with THREE PLAYS OF THE MONTH, including two more winning totals! I'm on a 6-1 run with MLB Totals of the Month in June, and have two TOTALS OF THE MONTH. I also have a DIVISION DOG OF THE MONTH in this bundle. Easy 3-0 with this MLB TRIPLE PLAY.In the WNBA last night, the dogs had a profitbale night winning two of three outright.The Minnesota Lynx (+2 1/2) went into Seattle and beat the Storm 99-97 in overtime. It was Minnesota's second straight win over the Storm, after winning in Minneapolis on Wednesday. The Lynx have covered eight of 11 since failing to cover their first four games this season.The Phoenix Mercury (+2 1/2) were dominant in a wire-to-wire 85-63 victory over the Indiana Fever. The win snapped Phoenix's six-game slide both SU and ATS.In the premier matchup that was billed as the most anticipated game of the season, the Las Vegas Aces decimated the New York Liberty (-6'), 98-81. But while many are ready to crown the Aces their second-straight title, keep in mind the Liberty were playing their fourth game in seven nights - and third on the road. They went to overtime with Washington on Sunday, then beat Connecticut on Tuesday, traveled all day Wednesday and played the rested Aces, who were off Tuesday and Wednesday and were playing the fourth of a five-game homestand.

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Why Georgia Will Not Win a Third Straight CFP National Championship

by Oskeim Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

Since the wire service era began in 1936, no college football team has ever won three consecutive national championships. Fourteen teams, including last year’s Georgia Bulldogs, have won back-to-back titles, but none have claimed the elusive three-peat. Some schools have been close, but you can add Georgia to the list of 14 that have failed at winning three consecutive national titles. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is 81-15 in his seven seasons at Georgia. His team will fare well again in 2023, but history is not on the Bulldogs’ side. Go Army, Let’s TieThere were several great Army teams of the 1940s. Legendary head coach Red Blaik won back-to-back national championships in 1944 and 1945. Blaik and the Black Knights won 25 straight games before facing off with national power Notre Dame. The two teams played to a scoreless tie in what is considered one of the best college football games of all-time. The result would leave Army 9-0-1 that season and give the national title to the Fighting Irish. It was the start of something special in South Bend. Golden DomersAfter winning the 1946 title, Notre Dame and its Hall of Fame coach Frank Leahy won the 1947 crown too. They were led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Johnny Lujack. The Fighting Irish were on their way to a third straight championship but were passed in the polls by Michigan.  Eventually, Notre Dame would tie USC and end up No. 2 in the final poll in 1948. In what would have been an unprecedented run, Leahy and the Irish won the national title again in 1949.  Close But No CigarNebraska was one of the most successful college football programs of the 1970s through the 2000s. Bob Devaney won consecutive national titles in 1970 and ‘71 before going 9-2-1 in 1972. The Cornhuskers finished No. 4 in the country that season. Devaney’s protege, Tom Osborne, put together one of the most dominant runs in modern college football history. First, Osborne and the Huskers won 25 straight games in winning consecutive titles in 1994 and ‘95. That came after Osborne and Nebraska lost to Florida State 18-16 in the 1993 title game. The Cornhuskers missed a field goal on the game’s last play. Then, in 1996, Nebraska was on its way to another BCS national championship. All they had to do was beat Texas in the Big 12 title game. The Huskers were a double-digit favorite over the Longhorns but fell victim to the upset, 37-27, and wound up No. 6 in the final polls. USC FailsPete Carroll had a great run at USC in the 2000s. They won the 2003 and 2004 national titles and were looking for the three-peat in 2005. The Trojans won 34 straight games before they faced Texas and its dynamic quarterback, Vince Young.  Young scored the game-winning touchdown with nine seconds remaining in the 2005 Rose Bowl to prevent USC from claiming the first three-peat in CFB history. The Trojans wound up No. 2. History vs. GeorgiaThe Bulldogs are a +250 favorite to win a third straight national championship. That number is likely to decrease as Georgia begins its season. Smart’s team will have two easy ones to start the season - UT-Martin and Ball State. They’ll get UAB in Week 4 sandwiched in between South Carolina at home and Auburn on the road. That could be the Bulldogs' first real test. Georgia likely won’t get much resistance until Ole Miss shows up between the hedges of Sanford Stadium on Nov. 11. Then, the big one…at Tennessee.  The Bulldogs will get everyone’s best shot. If they do manage to win the SEC East, they will likely need to win the SEC championship to get into the College Football Playoff. Then, they’ll need another semifinal win and a title game win…all with a new quarterback.  Sure, Smart returns 18 starters from last year’s team, but without a proven quarterback to start the season the Bulldogs are going to have some questions early. Maintaining that kind of dominance is difficult, especially when one of the teams - Alabama - that is a contender, plays in your conference.  While Georgia has a great chance to become the first three-peat champion, history is not on the Bulldogs’ side. 

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North of the Border: CFL Week 4 News and Notes

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

With three weeks in the books in the 2023 CFL season, here's our weekly look at news and notes from around the league heading into this weekend's action.Quarterback carouselThe Edmonton Elks and Ottawa RedBlacks check into their Week 4 matchup winless on the season. For the RedBlacks, they're coming off an early season bye week, but it wasn't enough to get QB Jeremiah Masoli healthy enough to start on Friday. Ottawa will turn to dual-threat QB Tyrie Adams after an ineffective two-game stint from veteran Nick Arbuckle. Adams is known more for his legs than his arm and if nothing else may be able to provide a spark to the RedBlacks ground attack, which has run the football only 25 times through two games. The Elks will give the start at quarterback to Jarrett Doege after he impressed in relief of Taylor Cornelius last week. Keep in mind, Doege's success came after the Argos had already all but put that game to bed. Edmonton will have to make do without one of its top receiving threats in veteran WR Eugene Lewis due to injury.Everything comes in threesThe Montreal Alouettes will look to make it three straight wins to open the campaign as they play host to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Saturday. Montreal has impressed on both sides of the football, outscoring its first two opponents by a 57-24 margin. The Bombers figure to pose a tougher challenge as they look to bounce back from a stunning 30-6 home loss against the undefeated B.C. Lions last week. That offensive no-show came out of nowhere after Winnipeg had racked up a whopping 87 points in its first two games of the season. The Als have somewhat surprisingly hung tough with the Bombers in recent years, splitting the last six meetings in the series.Something has to giveIn what most would call the game of the week, the 3-0 B.C. Lions will visit the 2-0 Toronto Argonauts on Monday. QB Vernon Adams Jr. has done a tremendous job running the Lions offense. Last week, he thrived without top WR Dominique Rhymes, leading the Lions to a season-high 30 points in their rout of the Blue Bombers. The Argos have been getting it done on the strength of their offense while proving vulnerable defensively, allowing their first two opponents to complete 52-of-67 passes for well over 500 yards. Perhaps they can be forgiven for that, however, as they've build sizable leads in both previous contests allowing them to rotate out some of their key defensive parts. The Lions have dropped their last two trips to Toronto, last winning here in 2019 (by a single point).

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 06/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Friday sports card features action in MLB, the CFL, and the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs host the Cleveland Guardians at 2:20 PM ET as a -165 money-line favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The San Diego Padres travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 5:10 PM ET as a -140 money-line road favorite, with the total set at 11. The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the Washington Nationals at 6:05 PM ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Pittsburgh to play against the Pirates on Apple TV+ as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins visit Baltimore to play the Orioles, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:07 PM ET as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The San Francisco Giants play in New York against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Miami Marlins are in Atlanta to play the Braves at 7:20 PM ET. The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros at 8:05 PM ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Kansas City to play the Royals as a -210 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Detroit Tigers play in Colorado against the Rockies as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 11.5. The St. Louis Cardinals play at home against the New York Yankees at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Apple TV+ at 9:38 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Chicago White Sox are in Oakland to play the A’s at 9:40 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Rays visit Seattle to play the Mariners at 10:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The Ottawa Redblacks host the Edmonton Elks at 7:30 PM ET. The Redblacks are winless in their first two games after a 26-15 loss at home to Calgary as a 6.5-point underdog on June 15th. The Elks have opened the season with three straight losses after their 43-31 loss to Toronto as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Ottawa is a 2.5-point favorite, with a total of 42.5. The group stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup continues with two matches on FS1 at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey. Panama battles Martinique at 6:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Costa Rica faces El Salvador at 8:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - June 29, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Jun 29, 2023

A full slate of MLB games for Wednesday night, and we saw underdogs turn in a profitable night with a 7-7 mark, with one game being a pick. Last night's Big Dawg that barked loudest was once again the Washington Nationals (+230, DraftKings) with their 4-1 win at the Seattle Mariners.After a brutal 5-18 skid from May 28 to June 23, the Nationals have won four of five behind a steady offense that is hitting .249 and slugging .407. The Nationals have belted six home runs in the five-game stretch, and are averaging 5.0 runs per game. The pitching staff has an ERA of 3.13 in that same span. Washington heads to Philadelphia for a weekend set after taking today off, while the Phillies are closing out a series at Wrigley Field today. Could they be tired for the quick turnaround and a game against the suddenly hot Nationals tomorrow?In the WNBA, it was another clean sweep for the favorites, which went 2-0 SU and ATS.The Chicago Sky laid -2 1/2 to the Los Angeles Sparks and rolled to an 80-63 victory. The total stayed well under 156 1/2 points. With the win, the Sky snapped a six-game slide on the court and three-game slide at the window.The Washington Mystics (-4 1/2) didn't hold back in their 109-86 thrashing of the Atlanta Dream, while that total soared past 163. Washington bounced back from a disappointing 89-88 overtime loss at New York on Monday. The Mystics are enjoying a five-game win streak at the window.I went 2-0 on Wednesday. Tonight, as part of my lineup, I have my WNBA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH with the best value on the entire card with this pup. I also love one of tonight's WNBA Totals. I'm on a 6-1 run with my Over/Unders, so you won't want to miss this gift. Let's close the month strong, as we have two days left in June, and I want you to make money along with me. Do not miss this WNBA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH and TOTAL WINNER # 7 OF 8.

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