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Euro Cup Quarterfinals Preview

by Power Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

We’re down to the quarterfinals of this year’s Euro Cup. Some of the sides that remain - such as Belgium, England, Italy and Spain - were expected to get here. Others - like Czech Republic and Ukraine - are a bit of a surprise. Over on the right side of the bracket, there is potential for the ultimate “feel good” story with Denmark. Their tournament got off to the worst possible start with Christian Eriksen collapsing in the opening match and going into cardiac arrest. Later that day, Denmark had to resume the match with Finland and suffered a shock 1-0 loss. Then they blew an early lead to favored Belgium and lost that one too. But Eriksen showed up on the sideline for the team’s final match of the group stage and since then everything has changed. Denmark rolled Russia 4-1 to qualify for the knockout stage, then beat Wales 4-0 in the Round of 16. The right side of the bracket is considered the much weaker half. Next up for Denmark will be Czech Republic, who shocked the Netherlands 2-0 in the Round of 16. The Czechs have conceded only two goals the entire tournament. Going back to earlier competitions, it’s been a long time since they conceded more than one in any match. But something to keep in mind is that even before their “resurgence,” Denmark had been playing well. They had the second best shot difference (+46) and fourth best expected goal differential (+3.4) in the group stage. England should now be considered the favorite on the weaker side of the draw. They are more than a 2/1 favorite to beat Ukraine in the quarterfinals, as they should be. Through four matches in Euro “2020,” the Three Lions have yet to concede a single goal. They are the lone side that can say that. But they’ve only scored four times. Ukraine beat 10-man Sweden in the quarters with the latest game winner ever in a major tournament. They got the game-winner in the final minute of added time. They’ve scored six goals in the tournament, more than England, but also conceded six. It would be shocking to see them in the semis.Over on the other side of the draw, Spain is favored to beat Switzerland. It should not have been as hard as it was for La Roja against Croatia in the Round of 16. They blew a two-goal lead in the final 10 minutes. Added time belonged to them as they scored twice. That’s now 10 goals from Spain in the last two matches. Keen observers probably saw this coming. Spain had 7.5 expected goals in the group stage, which was second most of anybody. Switzerland also erased a late two-goal deficit in its Round of 16 fixture. But unlike Croatia, they were able to finish the deal and stunned France on penalties. The Swiss had an underwhelming first two matches of this tournament before blitzing Turkey to stay alive. They probably “should have” lost to France though. This is the first time La Nati has ever made the European Championship quarterfinals in their history. Their record against Spain is quite poor, but they’ve also only been beaten once in the last 11 competitions. Clearly, the marquee quarter final fixture is between Italy and Belgium. Italy looked like the best side in the group stage. They are on an unbeaten run of 31 straight matches, a new national record.  But they needed added time to get by Austria in the Round of 16. Belgium was the #1 ranked team in the world coming into the tournament. They have not lost in 2021. Both sides will come into Friday on 14-match win streaks. But one streak obviously has to end. Belgium has not only won 14 in a row, but 23 of their last 27. They’ve scored a goal in 34 straight matches. But their record against Italy isn’t very good. They have just four wins and 14 losses in the last 22 meetings. There are injuries to monitor on the Belgian side. One of them is Kevin De Bruyne (ankle) and the other is captain Eden Hazard (muscular). Neither injury is believed to be serious, but you’ve got two significant contributors that won’t be fully fit. That could end up being the difference in the match. I, for one, will be looking forward to the remainder of Euro 2020. 

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MLB - Teams to Bet and Teams to Fade

by AAA Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

Teams To FadeGiants - Through 79 games, San Francisco is +22.1 units. That’s way out in front of everybody else. No team has finished up that many units in three of the past four seasons. In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the second half schedule won’t be easy. Red Sox - Boston is second at +14.5 units. We didn’t expect to see them leading the AL East entering July. They are 14-7 in one run games and 10-2 in interleague play. More importantly, they are 21-10 in division games. We don’t think any of those win percentages can be maintained.Mariners - The M’s are +13.6 units. They have a winning record. But only two American League teams have scored fewer runs. No one has been better in extra inning games (7-1), which seems to be more about luck. Team to Bet Astros - Houston has a run differential of +130. There’s only one other team with a run differential better than +100. Only three others are higher than +75. As of now, the Astros are only +2.1 units. They are likely to have a higher win percentage in the second half of the season.Team to Bet (Over)Orioles - Despite giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is the most in the American League, Baltimore has gone Over in only half their games. The pitching isn’t going to get any better. Team to Bet (Under)Pirates - This team scores less than any other in baseball (3.5 runs/game). Pitcher to Bet OnCole (NYY) - He’s -9.8 units, which is last among all starters. But he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His team start record is 8-8. He’s likely to win more than he loses moving forward. Pitcher to FadeRodriguez (BOS) - He’s +4.8 units with a 10-5 TSR. But he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a pitcher that should be coming out ahead in two-thirds of his starts. 

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Ness Notes: We're No. 1 (How College Football Has Chosen Its No. 1 Teams)

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

Rutgers and New Jersey (now known as Princeton) faced off in what is considered to be the first American football game ever played on Nov 6, 1869. The game took place in New Brunswick, New Jersey, with an audience of about 100 on hand, according to Rutgers. Rutgers won 6-4. Stealing a line from the Virginia Slim Women's Tennis Circuit (formed in 1970), "We've Come A Long Way Baby." It took awhile but college football's first try at answering the question "Who's No. 1?" came in 1926. Frank Dickinson, an economics professor at the University of Illinois, released the first mathematical ranking of teams in an attempt to come up with a scientific method to rate/rank teams. This came 10 years before the first Associated Press poll (1936) and 24 years before the Coaches' Poll, which debuted in 1950 for United Press International. I'll start my "look back" in 1950, as this is going to be long article that will be broken into four parts.The Associated Press Poll began with sports editors of AP newspapers voting for the top 20 teams nationally in 1936. Minnesota and Northwestern each finished with 7-1 records but even though Northwestern beat Minnesota 6-0 during the regular season, Minnesota was named No. 1 in the final poll. Right from the start, the AP's No. 1 team in its final poll was dubbed college football's " mythical national champion." What a great name. Nailed it! More trouble arose in 1947 when Notre Dame and Michigan alternated Nos. 1 and 2 slots throughout the year with Notre Dame getting the final regular-season nod, even though both teams were 9-0. The AP released its final poll before the bowl season back then and the Fighting Irish were not going to bowls back then. So, when Michigan beat USC 49-0 in the Rose Bowl, the public demanded that the voters release another post-bowl poll, which the Wolverines won easily. However, the AP decided that the postseason poll did not supersede the final regular-season poll. Can't make this stuff up. If the second poll was not going to count, why take it?1950 became a pivotal year as AP’s rival United Press began its own top-20 poll, voted on by a panel of coaches. The two polls would go head-to-head for the next 45 years. By 1954, we had our first split national champions. Ohio State (10-0) prevailed in the AP and UCLA (9-0) in the UPI. The two teams were not able to meet in the Rose Bowl to decide the “on-the-field” champion, as UCLA had played in the Rose Bowl the year before against Michigan and under the Pac-8’s “no-repeater” rule had to remain in Westwood. Ohio State defeated an 8-4 USC team 20-7 in the Rose Bowl and gave coach Woody Hayes his first AP championship with a 10-0 record. FYI, UCLA beat USC 34-0 in 1954's regular season. In 1957, a 10-0 Auburn team won the AP title but the UPI national championship went to an Ohio St team that lost its first game but then won NINE in a row, capping its season with an unimpressive 10-7 Rose Bowl win over an Oregon team that lost its fourth game of the year in Pasadena. Things were fairly calm the next seven seasons but beginning in 1965, college football had SIX split national champions through 1978 (14-year span).  Things settled down beginning in 1979, as through the 1989 season college football featured 11 straight consensus national champions. However, Colorado (11-1-1) won the AP title and Georgia Tech (10-0-1) won the Coaches' title in 1990 and then Miami-Fl (12-0) won the AP title and Washington (12-0) the Coaches' title in 1991. That caused "the powers that be" in college football to make a change. The Bowl Coalition was established for the 1992 season after those back-to-back co-national champions of 1990 and 1991. The agreement was in place for the 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995 college football seasons and we had FOUR straight clear-cut national champions, Alabama in 1992, Florida St in 1993 plus Nebraska in back-to-back seasons (1994 and 1995)  For some reason, that wasn't good enough, so the Bowl Alliance was implemented. I'll leave it to you to decide how well it worked.The 1996 season proved to be far less than satisfying as the top two teams, Florida State and Arizona State, did not meet because Arizona State was bound to the Rose Bowl and a game vs Big Ten champion Ohio St. ASU would lose 20-17 to the Buckeyes, while FSU lost 52-20 to Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Those two results left the 12-1 Gators with the final No. 1 spot in both polls. Then came the 1997 season in which Michigan finished 12-0 after a 21-16 win over Washington St in the Rose Bowl and Nebraska finished 13-0 with a 42-17 win over Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. Michigan was named the AP national champion (Lloyd Carr got his first AP title in only his third year as head coach of the Wolverines) but even though both teams won in the bowls, 21 coaches changed their votes and handed Tom Osborne the third poll championship for Nebraska in four years.The 1998 season was the first year of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), which is where I'll continue my journey next week.Good luck...Larry

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NBA Playoffs: Scoring is (Way) Down!

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

Among the four teams left in the NBA Playoffs, scoring is way down. Let’s take a look at each of them.In the regular season, Milwaukee games averaged 234.3 points/game. That was the highest average in the league. But in the playoffs, that average has declined down to 212.3. Over the course of their second round series against Brooklyn, we saw the O/U line decrease by more than 20 points. The first round series vs. Miami saw the O/U line decline by six points from the first game to the last game. A quick note that the total for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals is set to be the lowest of the entire series. The Under is 9-4 in Bucks postseason games.Speaking of the Eastern Conference Finals, Milwaukee's opponent (Atlanta) has seen its playoff games average 213.0 combined points. That’s down from 225.1 in the regular season. The Under is 10-5 in Hawks playoff games. Their regular season scoring average was 113.7. They’ve exceeded that number in just two playoff games. Both were Game 1’s. Over in the West, declines are similar. Clippers games averaged 221.8 points in the regular season. That’s down to 218.4 in the playoffs. Of the four teams left, their decline is the smallest. The Under is 9-9 in their playoff games. But the last five games, four of them against Phoenix, have averaged only 204.2 points. Suns games averaged 224.8 points in the regular season. Playoff games are down to 209.3. They have not scored more than 104 in any of their last four games. There have been four games in the playoffs where Phoenix has failed to break 100 points. Three of them have been at Staples Center, which is where they are playing their next game. The Under is 9-6 in Suns playoff games.I point all this out because oddsmakers were initially slow to react to the big decline in scoring. They seem to have now adjusted better and I’d be shocked if we see another total above 220.0 for awhile. Scoring always declines in the playoffs as defense tightens and the number of possessions decreases. But we’re reaching a point where there could soon be value in taking Overs. 

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2021 MLB: Overachievers & Underachievers

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

I’m continuing our monthly check-in on “America’s Pastime” with a look at which MLB teams are overachieving and underachieving the most, based on expected vs. actual win totals. Expected win total is sometimes referred to as Pythagorean win percentage. “The concept strives to determine the number of games that a team *should* have won -- based on its total number of runs scored versus its number of runs allowed -- in an effort to better forecast that team's future outlook.”I think this tool is extremely important in evaluating how a team has “really played.”Now onto the over and underachievers. Overachievers - Teams whose actual win total exceeds expected win total by the widest margins. 1. Seattle - At 41-38, the Mariners find themselves on the periphery of the Wild Card race in the American League. But it’s a race they probably shouldn’t even be involved with, at least based on their expected win total which is just 35. Their run differential is -43. The M’s have been really lucky in extra inning games (7-1) and their 18 one-run wins are the most in MLB. I do not expect them to stay in Wild Card contention. Not just because of all the above, but also due to being in the same division as Houston and Oakland. 2. Milwaukee - The Brewers come into the week leading the NL Central at 45-33. It will be interesting to see what happens against the second place Cubs, who actually have a slightly better run differential and thus expected win total. The Brew Crew’s expected win total is just 40. They are 26-9 in day games, but below .500 in night games. I do like Milwaukee’s starting pitching and they very well could win this division. Unlike Seattle, I would NOT write this team off. 3. Boston/Cleveland/St. Louis - These teams have all exceeded their expected win total by four. Boston (47-31) leads a tough AL East, but actually has the third best run differential in the division. They have an expected win total of 43 and I expect them to tumble. I also don’t anticipate Cleveland (41-33)  making the Wild Card, even though they look like a lock to finish second in a pretty weak Central Division. While eight games above .500, the Tribe have a minus 3 run differential YTD and an expected win total of 37. St. Louis has already fallen to fourth in the NL Central (37-41) and while they’ll always stay ahead of Pittsburgh, the Cardinals’ run differential is -52 and that’s fourth worst in the whole Senior Circuit. They have a win expectancy of 33. Underachievers - Teams whose expected win total exceeds actual win total by the widest margins. 1. Miami - The Marlins are last in the NL East. But they are the only team in the division besides the Mets to have a positive win differential. Their actual record is 33-44, but their run differential says they should be 41-36. Being 6-16 in one-run games has hurt. Seeing as how they overachieved last season, I don’t think the Marlins get back in the division or Wild Card race. But they are a team that should have a better overall record.2. Arizona - Well, here’s an ugly one. The Diamondbacks stink. When they won 10-1 Saturday in San Diego, it snapped a MLB-record 24-game losing streak. They have lost 35 of their last 39 games overall. They have baseball’s overall worst record at 22-56. But as bad as things are, the D’backs should have a few more wins under their belt. Their expected win total is 27. They are 2-18 in one-run games. There’s no way any team can continue being THIS bad. 3. Toronto - The Blue Jays are 40-36 and in third place in the East. But they have a +65 run differential. That’s top five in the American League. Compared to pretenders like Seattle and Cleveland and overachievers like Boston, the Blue Jays are actually playing better baseball. They could be a Wild Card team or even win the division. Recently, the Jays have been winning more. They are 7-1 their last eight games, though most of those wins have come against Baltimore. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, WNBA and Euro 2020 Previews and Odds - 06/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, and Euro 2020.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 4 in the Eastern Conference finals on TNT. Milwaukee took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 victory in Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bucks have won four of their last five games. The Hawks have lost three of five games. Milwaukee is a 7-point road favorite with a total set at 219.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Tip-off is at 8:35 PM ET. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Tampa Bay visits Washington at 7:05 PM ET as a -111 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Rich Hill pitches for the Rays against the Nationals’ Joe Ross. The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Yankees’ Jameson Taillon pitches against the Angels’ Andrew Heaney. Miami plays at Philadelphia as a -117 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Taylor Rogers for the Marlins pitches against Vincent Velasquez of the Phillies. Toronto plays at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET as a -192 money line favorite with a total of a 10. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays faces Chris Flexen of the Mariners. Boston is at home against Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. The Red Sox send out Nick Pivetta to pitch against Brad Keller. Cleveland hosts Detroit as a -182 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Jean-Carlos Mejia pitches for the Indians against the Tigers’ Jose Arena. San Diego travels to Cincinnati as a -161 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Blake Snell pitches for the Padres against Tony Santillan of the Reds. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets at 7:20 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Braves pitch Charlie Morton against the Mets’ Tylor McGill. Houston hosts Baltimore at 8:10 PM ET, with both teams priced at -105. Jose Urquidy pitches for the Astros, and the Orioles starting pitcher is undecided. The Chicago White Sox play at home against Minnesota as a -136 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. After Monday’s rainout, the White Sox push Lucas Giolito back a day to make this start in a rematch against the Twins’ Kenta Maeda. Milwaukee is home against the Chicago Cubs as a -192 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff pitches against the Cubs’ Zach Davies. St. Louis hosts Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -149 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez pitches against the Diamondbacks’ Caleb Smith. Colorado plays at home against Pittsburgh at 8:40 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 11. German Marquez of the Rockies pitches against the Pirates’ Chase De Jong. Oakland is at home against Texas at 9:40 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The A’s send out James Kaprielian to pitch against the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the San Francisco on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET as a -143 money line favorite with a total of 7. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against the Giants’ Kevin Gausman. The WNBA has two games on the slate. New York visits Atlanta on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. Connecticut travels to Washington for a 7 PM ET tip-off. The Round of 16 in the Euro 2020 concludes on Tuesday with two matches on ESPN. England plays Germany at noon ET at Wembley Stadium in London in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.25. Sweden goes against Ukraine at 3 PM ET at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland, as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, Euro 2020 and Copa America Previews and Odds - 06/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The Monday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, Euro 2020, and the Copa America.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 5 in the Western Conference finals on ESPN. Phoenix hosts the Los Angeles Clippers after taking a 3-1 series lead with an 84-80 victory as a 1-point road favorite on Saturday. The Suns have won ten of their last eleven games. Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 214.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 9:05 PM ET.The finals of the NHL playoffs begin with Tampa Bay hosting Montreal on the NBC Sports Network at 8:08 PM ET. The Lighting defeated the New York Islanders by a 1-0 score on Friday two take that series, 4-3. The Canadiens defeated Vegas in six games with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Thursday. Tampa Bay is a -197 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.Eleven games are on the MLB docket. Colorado hosts Pittsburgh at 5:10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with a total of 11. Kyle Freeland pitches for the Rockies against the Pirates’ Tyler Anderson. Cincinnati plays at home against Philadelphia at 6:40 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Wade Miley pitches for the Reds against the Phillies’ Spencer Howard. The New York Mets visit Washington at 7:05 PM ET. Jerad Eickhoff pitches for the Mets, and the Nationals are undecided on their starting pitcher. The New York Yankees play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -152 money line favorite with a total of 10. Michael King pitches for the Yankees against the Angels’ Dylan Bundy. Boston hosts Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Garrett Richards pitches for the Red Sox against the Royals’ Danny Duffy. Cleveland is at home against Detroit as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Indians send out Eli Morgan to face the Tigers’ Matt Manning. Milwaukee plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 8:10 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Freddy Peralta pitches for the Brewers against the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Houston is at home against Baltimore as a -290 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Astros Zack Greinke pitches against the Orioles’ Thomas Eshelman. The Chicago White Sox host Minnesota as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Lucas Giolito pitches for the White Sox against the Twins’ Kenta Maeda. St. Louis plays at home against Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Cardinals send out Wade LeBlanc against Jake Faria of the Diamondbacks. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Francisco at 10:10 PM ET as a -178 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers faces Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues with two matches in the Round of 16 on ESPN. Spain plays Croatia at noon ET at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark. The Spaniards are a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.25. France plays Switzerland at 3 PM ET at National Arena in Bucharest, Romania. Les Bleus are a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.The group stage of the Copa America concludes with two matches in Group A at 8 PM ET. Argentina plays Bolivia on FS1 at the Arena Pantanal in Cuiaba, Brazil. The Argentinians are a -2.25 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Uruguay faces Paraguay on FS2 at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Uruguayans are a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.

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Euro 2020 Preview - Knockout Stage - 06/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues on Monday with two matches in the Round of 16.Spain plays Croatia at noon ET on ESPN at the National Arena in Bucharest, Romania. La Furia Roja needed a result last Wednesday, and they responded with a resounding 5-0 win against Slovakia to finish in second place in Group E with five points. Two of those scores came from own-goals from the Slovakians. Spain opened their tournament with a 0-0 draw with Sweden. They then settled for a 1-1 draw with Poland. The Red Fury has scored six times in this event while conceding just once. The three-time Euro champions have lost in the Round of 16 in their last two major international tournaments in the 2018 World Cup and the 2016 Euro. Croatia needed the three points from a victory against Scotland last Tuesday, and they defeated the Scots, 3-1, to finish in second place in Group D with four points. The Chequered Ones opened their tournament with a 1-0 loss to England. They then earned a 1-1 draw with a Czech Republic side that upset the Netherlands yesterday to advance to the quarterfinals. The Croatians have scored four times while conceding three goals. Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic lead this team after playing pivotal roles in their run to the World Cup finals in 2018, where they lost to France. Perisic leads the team with two goals. However, he is out for this match after testing positive for COVID. BetOnline lists Spain as a -1 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.25.France plays Switzerland on ESPN at 3 PM ET at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark. The reigning World Cup champions won Group F after earning a point from their 1-1 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. France opened their campaign in the “group of death” by defeating Germany, 1-0. They settled for a 1-1 draw with Hungary. Les Bleus scored four times while allowing three goals. Only two of their goals came from open play. Kylian Mbappe leads the French with two goals, with one coming from a penalty kick. Their lone goal against Germany came from an own goal from Mats Hummels. France finished in second place to Portugal in the 2016 Euro.Switzerland needed the three points from a victory against Turkey last Sunday, and La Nati responded with a 3-1 win against Turkey. The Swiss National Team opened with a 1-1 draw against Wales. They then lost to Italy, 3-0. They finished in third place in Group A but earned one of the four third-place qualifying spots. National Swiss scored four times while giving up five goals. Xherdan Shaqiri leads the team with two goals. Switzerland lost in the Round of 16 in the 2016 Euro. They made the semifinals in the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019.BetOnline lists France as a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 1 Preview and Odds

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The Stanley Cup finals begin on Monday, with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens on the NBC Sports Network at 8:08 PM ET. Tampa Bay reached the finals with their 1-0 victory against the New York Islanders in Game 7 of that semifinal series on Friday. Yanni Gourde scored the lone goal in the game shorthanded at the 1:49 minute mark of the second period. The Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped all 18 of the shots he faced. Tampa Bay placed 31 shots on Islanders’ goaltender Semyon Varlamov. The Lightning aspires to become the eighth team in NHL history to win back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Tampa Bay won their first Stanley Cup in the 2003-04 season before winning the title again last season. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the most recent franchise to repeat as champions in 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. Tampa Bay opened their postseason campaign by defeating the Florida Panthers in six games. They followed that by beating the Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the East Division finals. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 12-6 record in the playoffs, with a 1.99 goals-against-average, a .936 save percentage, and four shutouts. He had a 31-10-1 record in the regular season with a 2.21 goals-against-average and a .925 save percentage. He is one of three Vezina Trophy finalists awarded to the top goaltender of the season. He previously won that award in 2019.Brayden Point leads the league with 14 goals in the postseason. His nine-game playoff streak with at least one point ended in Game 7 on Friday. Nikita Kucherov leads the NHL with 27 points in the playoffs. He has scored five goals and added 22 assists. He has registered 17 of his points on the power play. Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos tie for third on the team with 17 points. Montreal defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in six games to reach the Stanley Cup finals with a 3-2 victory in overtime last Thursday. Shea Weber opened the scoring with a power-play goal at the 14:06 minute mark of the first period. The Knights evened the score less than a minute later with Reilly Smith’s goal. Cole Caufield gave the Canadiens the lead again with his gaol at 9:36 of the second period. Alex Martinez evened the score for Vegas early in the third period. Arturri Lehkonen scored the game-winner for Montreal just 99 seconds into overtime. Carey Price stopped 37 of the 39 shots he faced in the win. The 2015 Vezina Trophy winner has a 12-5 record in the playoffs this season, with a 2.02 goals-against-average and a .934 save percentage. In the last two postseasons, Price has a 17-10 record, a 1.93 goals-against-average, a .934 save percentage, and three shutouts. The Canadiens opened their postseason run by defeating the heavily-favored Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games. Montreal then swept Winnipeg in four games in the North Division finals before upsetting Vegas in six games. The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 13 games since trailing the Maple Leafs, 3-1, in that first-round series. They have won the Stanley Cup championship 22 times. They last won the Cup in 1993 in their most recent appearance in the finals.Tyler Toffoli leads the team with 14 points coming from five goals and nine assists. Nick Suzuki has 13 points from five goals and eight assists. His five points last round tied for the most on the team. Cole Caufield led Montreal with four goals in the Vegas series. His nine points in the playoffs tie with Corey Perry for the third-most on the team. The Canadiens have not allowed a power-play goal in 13 straight games. They have successfully thwarted the last 30 power plays from their opponents in this postseason. Tampa Bay has scored 20 power plays in the playoffs, a 37.7% success rate on their 53 opportunities with the man advantage. Montreal will be without Joel Armia indefinitely after he entered the COVID quarantine protocol. It is unclear how long he will be out. He did not travel with the team to Florida. The Canadiens expect head coach Dominique Ducharme back for Game 3 when he completes the COVID quarantine protocol. Assistant head coach Luke Richardson will retain head coaching bench duties until then. The team has a 3-1 record under Richardson since Ducharme began quarantine. Tomas Tatar and Jake Evans remain questionable with the injuries that kept them out last round. Tampa Bay is healthy. Kucherov is probable after returning to the ice to play 16:29 minutes on Game 7 on Friday after being knocked out early in the first period in the sixth game of the Islanders series. BetAnySports lists the Lightning as a -190 money line favorite for Game 1, with the total set at 5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, WNBA, Euro 2020 and Copa America Previews and Odds - 06/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jun 27, 2021

The Sunday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, Euro 2020, and the Copa America.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 3 in the Eastern Conference finals on TNT. Milwaukee travels to Atlanta after evening this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory as an 8-point favorite. The Hawks had won their last two games before that setback. The Bucks are a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 224 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 8:35 PM ET.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Toronto hosts Baltimore at 1:07 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 11. The Blue Jays send out Ross Stripling to face the Orioles’ Jorge Lopez. Six games start at 1:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees visit Boston on TBS as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against the Red Sox’s Eduardo Rodriguez. Washington plays at Miami as a -139 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Max Scherzer of the Nationals’ faces the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. Tampa Bay is at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -143 money line favorite with a total of 8. Ryan Yarbrough pitches for the Rays against the Angels’ Pablo Sandoval. Atlanta travels to Cincinnati with Kyle Muller pitching against Tyler Mahle. Philadelphia plays at New York against the Mets, with the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler going against Max Stroman. Houston plays at Detroit as a -187 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Jake Odorizzi pitches for the Astros against the Tigers’ Takir Skubal. Milwaukee hosts Colorado at 2:15 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Brewers’ Eric Lauer faces the Rockies’ Chi Chi Gonzalez. Cleveland plays at Minnesota with the Indians’ Sam Hentges pitching against the Twins’ J.A. Happ. St. Louis is at home against Pittsburgh at 2:15 PM ET as a -143 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Johan Oviedo pitches for the Cardinals against the Pirates Max Kranick. Kansas visits Texas at 2:35 PM ET as a -107 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The Royals’ Brad Singer pitches against the Rangers’ Jordan Lyles. San Francisco plays at home against Oakland at 4:05 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Giants send out Sam Long to face Cole Irvin of the A’s. San Diego hosts Arizona at 4:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres against the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen. Seattle plays at Chicago against the White Sox at 4:45 PM ET. Dallas Keuchel pitches for the White Sox, and the Mariners’ pitcher is undecided. The Los Angeles Dodgers hosts the Chicago Cubs on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET as a -188 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Dodgers’ send out Clayton Kershaw to pitch against the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay. Three games are on the WNBA slate. Chicago travels to Connecticut at 2 PM ET. Seattle visits Las Vegas on ESPN at 4 PM ET. Los Angeles plays at Phoenix at 6 PM ET. The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues with two matches in the Round of 16. The Netherlands plays the Czech Republic on ESPN at noon ET at the Ferenc Puskas Stadium in Budapest, Hungary. The Dutch are a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.Belgium plays Portugal on ABC at 3 PM ET at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain. The Red Devils are a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. The knockout stage of Copa America begins with two quarterfinals matches at 5 PM ET. Brazil plays Ecuador on Fox at the Estadio Olympic Pedro Ludovico in Goiania, Brazil. The Brazilians are a -1.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Peru plays Venezuela on FS2 at the Mane Garrincha Stadium in Brasilia, Brazil. The Peruvians are a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.

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Euro 2020 Round of 16 Preview and Odds - 06/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 26, 2021

The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 begins on Saturday with two matches in the Round of 16.Denmark plays Wales on ESPN at noon ET at the Amsterdam Arena in Amsterdam. The Danes qualified for the knockout stage by defeating Russia, 4-1, on Monday to secure three points in the group stage. The Red and Whites needed the victory against the Bears to advance after losing their first two matches in Group B play. Denmark opened their Euro 2020 campaign with a 1-0 loss to Finland in a game obscured by Christian Eriksen’s medical emergency. The Danes then lost to one of the tournament favorites, Belgium, by a 2-1 score, although they had the lead in that game and generated superior underlying numbers. The Red and Whites have scored five games and conceded four goals. Their underlying metrics place them fourth in the tournament is expected goal differential. They play on without their best player in Eriksen, but Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has stepped into his role as the primary facilitator in the midfield. Wales comes off a 1-0 loss to an Italian side that rested many of their starting XI. The Dragons clinched their participation in the knockout stage in their previous match with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. Wales opened their Euro 2020 with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. The Dragons scored three times in the group stage and gave up two goals. Their win against Turkey was against a side that lost all three of their matches. They did pick up a point against the Swiss National Team that advanced to the Round of 16. With Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, the core remains from the group that made a surprise run to the semifinals in Euro 2016.BetOnline lists Denmark as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.Italy plays Austria on ABC at 3 PM ET at Wembley Stadium. The Italians have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament by winning all three of their matches in the group stage. They opened this event with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. The Azzuri followed that up with a 3-0 victory against Switzerland. Manager Roberto Mancini’s side concluded the group stage with a 1-0 win against Wales last Sunday using many of his bench players in the match. The Azzuri scored seven times in the group stage without conceding a goal. Their keeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma of AC Milan, was only asked to make two saves along the way. Italy has played more than 1000 minutes in international play without giving up a goal. Austria only needed a draw in their final group stage match against Ukraine yet played on their front foot against Ukraine to earn a 1-0 victory and demonstrate no fear to secure a date with the Italians on Monday. Das Team opened their tournament with a 3-1 win against North Macedonia. They followed that up with a 2-0 loss to the Netherlands on their home soil in Amsterdam. The Austrians scored four times while conceding three goals in the group stage. Led by David Alba, a recent transfer to Real Madrid, and a trio of midfielders who star in the Bundesliga in Marcel Sabitzer, Konrad Laimer, and Xaver Schlager, Das Team was second in the group stage with a 38% success rate in forcing turnovers from their pressing tactics. BetOnline lists Italy as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA, WNBA and Euro 2020 Previews and Odds - 06/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 26, 2021

The Saturday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, and the Euro 2020.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 4 in the Western Conference finals on ESPN. The Los Angeles Clippers won Game 3, 106-92, as a 1-point underdog at the Staples Center on Thursday. Phoenix leads the series by a 2-1 margin. The Suns are a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 218.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 9:05 PM ET.Sixteen games are on the MLB docket. Houston visits Detroit at 1:10 PM ET in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. Minnesota hosts Cleveland at 2:10 PM ET as a -149 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Twins’ Kenta Maeda faces the Indians’ Sam Hentges. The Chicago White Sox play at home against Seattle as a -182 money line favorite with a total of 8. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. St. Louis is at home against Pittsburgh at 2:15 PM ET as a -146 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright pitches against the Pirates’ J.T. Brubaker. Toronto hosts Baltimore at 3:07 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 10. Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays squares off against the Orioles’ Keegan Akin. Texas plays at home against Kansas City on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET. The Rangers send out Kyle Gibson, and the Royals have yet to name their starting pitcher. Five games take place at 4:10 PM ET. Washington travels to Miami as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Nationals’ Patrick Corbin faces the Marlins’ Zach Thompson. Tampa Bay plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -159 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Shane McClanahan of the Rays goes against Alex Cobb of the Angels. Milwaukee is at home against Colorado as a -197 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Adrian Houser pitches for the Brewers against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. The New York Mets are at home against Philadelphia as a -255 money line favorite with a total of 6. Jacob DeGrom pitches for the Mets against Zach Eflin for the Phillies. Atlanta visits Cincinnati with Ian Anderson of the Braves pitches against the Reds’ Luis Castillo. Houston plays Detroit in the second game of their doubleheader at 6:10 PM ET. Fox has two games for its national broadcast at 7:15 PM ET. Boston hosts the New York Yankees as a -114 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Nathan Eovaldi of the Red Sox pitches against the Yankees’ Jordan Montgomery. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 9. Julio Urias pitches for the Dodgers against the Cubs’ Alec Mills. San Francisco is at home against Oakland at 10:05 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Giants send out Alex Wood against Frankie Montas of the A’s. San Diego hosts Arizona at 10:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8. San Diego hosts Arizona at 10:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Dinelson Lamet pitches for the Padres against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. Two games are on the WNBA slate. Washington visits Dallas on CBS at 1 PM ET. New York travels to Atlanta at 7 PM ET.The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 begins on Saturday with two matches. Denmark plays Wales at the Amsterdam Arena in Amsterdam on ESPN at noon ET. The Danes are a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2. Italy faces Austria at Wembley Stadium on ABC at 3 PM ET. The Italians are a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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