Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NHL and NBA Previews and Odds - 03/28/2021

Sunday, Mar 28, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament concludes with four games. The opener tips off at 2:10 PM ET with Creighton playing Gonzaga on CBS. The Bluejays, seeded fifth, have won five of six games after defeating Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Monday. The Bulldogs, the top seed in the tournament, advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 87-71 victory against Oklahoma as a 15.5-point favorite on Monday. Gonzaga is a 13-point favorite with the total set at 158.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Hinkle Fieldhouse is the site. The winner plays the victor of Oregon/USC in the West regional final.Florida State faces Michigan on CBS at 5 PM ET. The Seminoles, a four-seed, upset Colorado, 71-53, as a 2.5-point underdog last Monday. The Wolverines, a one-seed, beat LSU, 86-78, as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Michigan is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. The winner plays the victor of UCLA/Alabama in the East regional final. UCLA battles Alabama on TBS at 7:15 PM ET. The Bruins, an 11 seed, won their third straight game with a 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The Crimson Tide, a two-seed, won their eighth straight with their 96-77 win against Maryland as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite, with the total at 145.5. Hinkle Fieldhouse is the site. Oregon goes against USC on TBS at 9:45 PM ET. The Ducks, a seven seed, has won seven of their last eight games with their 95-80 upset win against Iowa on Monday. The Trojans, a six-seed, has won five of six after defeating Kansas, 85-51, as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. USC is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. The championship of the National Invitational Tournament tips off at noon PM ET on ESPN with Mississippi State playing Memphis. The Bulldogs advanced to the finals with an 84-62 upset win against Louisiana Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Tigers reached the finals with their 90-67 victory against Colorado State as a 4.5-point favorite yesterday. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with the total at 135.5. Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas, is the site. Louisiana Tech plays Colorado State in the third-place consolation game on ESPN at 3 PM ET. This game is a pick ‘em with an over/under of 140.5. Comerica Park is the neutral court. Four games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 1 PM ET, with Philadelphia visiting Charlotte. The schedule concludes at 10 PM ET with the Los Angeles Lakers hosting Orlando at 10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with a total of 208.Six games are on the NHL slate. Washington plays at home against the New York Rangers on NBC at noon PM ET. The Capitals have won nine of their last ten games after a 4-0 shutout win against New Jersey on Friday. The Rangers had their three-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. Washington is a -134 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Columbus visits Detroit on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET. The Bluejackets lost their third in a row after their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. The Red Wings ended a three-game losing streak with the triumph. Columbus is a -150 money line road favorite with the total at 6.Boston hosts New Jersey on the NBC Sports Network at 5:30 PM ET. The Bruins have won three of four with their 3-2 win against Buffalo on Saturday. The Devils lost their second straight game with their 4-0 loss to Washington. Boston is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Nashville plays at Chicago on the NBC Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Predators won their fourth straight on Saturday with a 3-1 win at Chicago. The Blackhawks have lost five of their last seven games.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 03/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 27, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament tips off at 2:40 PM ET. Oregon State plays Loyola-Chicago on CBS. The Beavers, seeded 12th, have won eight of their last nine games after their 80-70 upset win against Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Ramblers, seeded eighth, have won eight straight with their 71-578 upset win against Illinois as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. Loyola-Chicago is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 125.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The winner plays the victor of Syracuse/Houston in the Midwest regional final on Monday. Villanova battles Baylor on CBS at 5:15 PM ET. The Wildcats, a fifth seed, advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bears, the number one seed in the South region, have won six of seven with their 76-63 win against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baylor is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The winner plays the victor of Oral Roberts/Arkansas in the South regional final on Monday.Oral Roberts faces Arkansas on TBS at 7:25 PM ET. The Golden Eagles, seeded 15th, have won seven in a row after their 81-78 upset victory against Florida on Sunday. The Razorbacks, a three-seed, upset Texas Tech, 68-66, as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. Arkansas is an 11-point favorite with the total at 158.5. Syracuse plays Houston on TBS at 9:55 PM ET. The Orange, seeded 11th, have won five of six with their 75-72 win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Cougars, a two-seed, won their ninth straight game with their 63-60 win against Rutgers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Hinkle Fieldhouse is the neutral court. Houston is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 140.5.The semifinals of the National Invitational take place on ESPN at Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas. Memphis plays Colorado State in the opener at 1 PM ET. The Tigers defeated Boise State, 59-56, as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. The Rams upset North Carolina State, 65-61, as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with the total at 138.The second semifinals contest has Mississippi State playing Louisiana Tech at 3:30 PM ET. Mississippi State won three of four with their 68-67 victory against Richmond as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. Louisiana Tech has won eight of nine after their 72-65 victory against Western Kentucky in a pick ‘em contest on Thursday. Mississippi State is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5.Nine games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 8 PM ET with three games. The schedule closes out at 10 PM ET with Cleveland visiting Sacramento and Philadelphia playing at Los Angeles against the Clippers. None of the games are on national television. The NHL has 11 games on the schedule. The puck drops at 1 PM ET with two games. The New York Rangers play at Philadelphia as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Boston hosts Buffalo as a -355 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games conclude the card at 10 PM ET, with Winnipeg playing at Calgary and San Jose visiting Arizona.

NCAA Basketball: Florida State/Michigan Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 27, 2021

Florida State plays Michigan in a Sweet 16 matchup in the East region on CBS at 5:15 PM ET.The Seminoles advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 71-53 upset victory against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Anthony Polite scored a career-high 22 points in the win. The junior is averaging 10.2 points-per-game, and he is among five players scoring at least 9.2 points-per-game for Leonard Hamilton. Senior M.J. Walker leads the team with a 12.3 points-per-game scoring average. Florida State ranks 13th in the kenpom ratings with an 18-6 record. They finished 11-4 in the regular season of the ACC before losing to Georgia Tech, 80-75, in the conference championship game. They were seeded fourth in the East region. The Seminoles rank 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They are 19th in the nation with an offensive rebounding rate of 34.8%, and they are making 38.2% of their 3-pointers, 16th nationally. The Seminoles ranks 31st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 43.9% inside the arc, which is the 10th lowest mark in the nation. They block 14.6% of their opponent's shots, the 11th best mark nationally. They are vulnerable to teams that crash the offensive glass. Their opponents rebound 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Michigan defeated LSU, 86-78, as a five-point favorite on Monday. The Wolverines fell behind by nine points early before rallying for the victory. Eli Brooks and Chaundree Brown each scored 21 points. The seniors are averaging 9.7 and 7.0 points-per-game. Hunter Dickinson added 12 points with 11 rebounds. The freshman is averaging 14.2 points-per-game and 7.5 rebounds-per-game. Franz Wagner had 15 points with seven rebounds to improve his 12.8 points-per-game and 6.3 rebounds-per-game averages. The Wolverines are without Isaiah Livers, whose recent stress fracture in his foot likely has him out for the rest of the season. The senior was scoring 13.1 points-per-game while adding 6.0 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 assists-per-game. Junior Brandon Johns takes his place in the starting lineup. The former blue-chip recruit under John Beilein scored seven points with five rebounds in 27 minutes on Monday. The Wolverines rank third at kenpom with a 22-4 record. They won the Big Ten regular-season title with a 14-3 mark. Their three losses were against Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Michigan is the only Big Ten team that made the Sweet 16. They earned the top seed in the East region.Michigan ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Wolverines are 18th with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2%. They are making 38.5% of their 3-point shots, ranking 11th nationally. Michigan is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are sixth in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 44.5% mark. They rank third nationally by limiting their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc. Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is the site. BookMaker lists Michigan as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 143.5. The winner plays the victor of the UCLA/Alabama matchup in the East regional final on Tuesday.Computer prediction: Michigan 72 Florida State 71

MLB 2021: NL Central Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

NL Central Division Preview for MLB 2021Chicago Cubs – This team will struggle to get to .500 this season and is likely to finish in the mid to upper 70s for a win total. The Cubs Hendricks and Davies are now sandwiched with Arrieta at the top of the rotation but the latter was ultimately a bust in Philly. The problem with the Cubs is more than just having only a top two in the rotation. Chicago hit just .220 as a team last season and their lineup strikes out too much.Cincinnati Reds – The Reds should finish slightly above .500 but this team has to start hitting better. They were dead last season in the National League and are forced to rely far too much on their pitching staff. The rotation and bullpen both look rock solid but, again, will this team score enough runs? Probably enough to be competitive but not enough to win this division. Milwaukee Brewers – This team should compete with Cincinnati and battle the Cardinals for the top spot in the division. The Brewers have Woodruff and Burnes for a great 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation and then the bullpen is also stacked with the 1-2 punch of Williams and Hader. One of the issues with this team though is a lineup that piles up the strikeouts. I don’t see where that has been fixed and, though they have some pop, they don’t get on base enough and could struggle against strikeout pitchers.Pittsburgh Pirates – This could be the worst team in baseball this season. The Pirates may not even get to 60 wins. In fact if I would have to get a range I would say between 54 and 59 wins is a likely area for this team’s win total to fall into. Yes, Pittsburgh is that bad! The Pirates lost Jameson Taillon to the Yankees. The rotation has Keller at the top but a lot of question marks behind it. The team seems to be in a constant rebuild. Rodriguez a solid closer but how much will he be needed considering the Pirates are unlikely to have a ton of late leads! The Bucs had the worst slugging percentage and on base percentage in baseball last season. Will be a long season in Pittsburgh! St Louis Cardinals – This team should win the division though the Brewers and Reds will do their best to prevent that. I project the Cardinals to get into the upper 80s with their win total this season. The Cardinals did not hit particularly well last season but the good news is the other 4 teams in the division also have that issue. In fact the NL Central comprised the bottom 5 of the 15-team NL when you look at team batting average last season. St Louis did rate about 10 points better than everyone else in the division though and picking up Nolan Arenado which pushes a fading Matt Carpenter out of the lineup could prove to be a big plus for this team. A concern for the Cardinals is when Kim and Mikolas will be back in the rotation. Kim should only miss his 1st start or 2 of the year but Mikolas situation not as favorable. This will be something to keep an eye on but St Louis still looks like the team to beat in this division.

NCAA Basketball Tournament: Sweet 16 Round (1991-2021)

by Al McMordie

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

The first 32 games of this tournament are in the books (36 games, if you include the "First Four" round), and the Sweet 16 starts this weekend with a Saturday/Sunday schedule for the first time. The match-ups are as follows:Saturday:1 Baylor vs 5 Villanova3 Arkansas vs 15 Oral Roberts8 Loyola-Chi vs 12 Oregon State2 Houston vs 11 SyracuseSunday:1 Gonzaga vs 5 Creighton6 USC vs 7 Oregon1 Michigan vs 4 Florida State2 Alabama vs 11 UCLALet's take a look at how the seeds have done, historically, against the spread in the Sweet 16 round. This data is from 1991 through 2019 (there was no Tournament played in 2020).1 seeds: 53-43-4 ATS2 seeds: 38-32-2 ATS3 seeds: 28-36-1 ATS4 seeds: 24-33-3 ATS5 seeds: 15-18-2 ATS6 seeds: 16-16-1 ATS7 seeds: 10-10-1 ATS8 seeds: 5-4-1 ATS9 seeds: 5-2 ATS10 seeds: 9-12 ATS11 seeds: 9-6-1 ATS12 seeds: 7-10 ATS13 seeds: 3-2 ATS14 seeds: 1-0 ATS15 seeds: 1-0 ATS16 seeds: noneIn Sweet 16 match-ups, the better-seeded team has gone 113-111-8 ATS, including 10-6 ATS as an underdog, but just 7-14 ATS off an upset win (Arkansas and Loyola-Chi are off upset wins). The worse-seeded team has gone 51-48-4 ATS off an upset win (Oregon, Oregon State, Oral Roberts, and Syracuse), but 8-13 ATS off a point spread loss. Overall, favorites are 108-112-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round.Now, let's review how various point spread ranges have done:Underdogs of +3.5 or less: 37-34-4 ATSUnderdogs +4 to +7.5: 45-40-2 ATSUnderdogs +8 to +11.5: 22-26 ATSUnderdogs of +12 or more: 8-8-2 ATSFinally, some other ATS situations to note:Same-season revenge: 11-9-1 ATS (Oral Roberts, Oregon)Off double-digit wins (and foe not): 58-42-4 ATS (Florida State)Off double-digit cover (and foe not): 55-51-2 ATS (Villanova, Oral Roberts, Florida State)Off back-to-back covers (and foe not): 57-54-2 ATS (Villanova, Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA, USC (but Oregon only played 1 NCAA Tournament game))Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Ness Notes: From Sweet to Elite to Final 4 (Mar 27-30)

by Larry Ness

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

With the 2021 Masters coming up April 8-11, we'll often hear Jim Nantz say "A tradition unlike any other." The saying has even been trademarked by Augusta National and now adorns tournament merchandise. With deference to Nantz and The Masters, I think it's more than fair to 'borrow' that phrase and call the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, "A tournament unlike any other." For starters, this year's tournament has been contested at a number of notable venues throughout Central Indiana, including Lucas Oil Stadium (home of the NFL's Colts), Bankers Life Fieldhouse (home of the NBA's Pacers), Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Butler University’s Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana University’s Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall and Purdue University’s Mackey Arena. Each of the six 2021 NCAA Tournament venues has a storied history that goes beyond college basketball. No time to recap, so you'll trust me (the check's in the mail).The First Four was contested on Thursday March 18 and we got an early preview of things to come. The lone favorite to win was Drake, which edged Wichita St 53-52. As the tourney was down to 64 teams and headed for the First Round (March 19 and 20), favorites were 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS. 32 games were scheduled last Friday and Saturday but as all know, VCU was forced to forfeit its Saturday game to Oregon due to COVID issues. Over the other 31 games, favorites would go 19-12 SU but just 12-19 ATS. No. 1 seeds won all four games against their 16th-seeded opponents (now 143-1 all-time), although they were just 2-2 ATS. In all, NINE double-digit seeds won SU in the first round, including No. 15 Oral Roberts (just the 9th 15-seed to win an opener), No. 14 Abilene Christian, two No. 13 seeds (North Texas and Ohio U), a No. 12 seed plus two No. 11 and two No. 10 seeds.Moving to Sunday, favorites went just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS, As the second round got set to complete 'Day 2' on Monday, favorites were only 22-17 SU (.564) and a 'money-burning' 14-25 ATS (35.9%). The tourney's fifth day saw No. 7 seed Oregon (+5) beat No. 2 seed Iowa 95-80 and the refrain was, "Here we go again." However, favorites would go 7-0 SU & ATS in the day's final seven games. As all teams took a four-day break before beginning Sweet 16 play on Saturday (March 27), favorites sit 29-18 (.617) and 21-26 ATS (44.7%).OK, so why have I called this "A tournament unlike any other?" Consider the following factoids. The NCAA defines an upset as a team seeded five spots or lower than their opponent. A new record has already been set this year with 12 such "upsets" and there hasn't been a Sweet 16 game played yet. That's hardly all. Double digit seeds set a record by winning 14 games in the 2016 tournament (no counting First Four contests) and after four days of 1st and 2nd round games, that figure has been matched at 14, with FOUR of those double digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16. For the record, the list includes No. 15 Oral Roberts and No. 12 Oregon St plus No. 11 seeds Syracuse and UCLA. Upset possibilities typically become limited at this stage of the tournament but there are three among the eight Sweet 16 games. No. 15 Oral Roberts faces No. 3 Arkansas, plus both No. 11 seeds are 'in play,' Syracuse against No. 2 Houston and UCLA against No. 2 Alabama. This should grab your attention. The combined seeds in this year's Sweet 16 add up to 94, eclipsing the record of 89 set back in 1986. Seeding began back in 1979 (anyone remember Bird vs Magic?). There was no tourney last year but in 2019 (UVa's championship season), the combined seeds of Sweet 16 teams added up to just 49! One tourney apart, it's gone from 49 to 94, a numerical palindrome.All No. 1 seeds won in the first round but Illinois was 'bounced' in the second round by 8th-seeded Loyola-Chicago. The good news for No. 1 seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan) is that they've gone 97-23 (.808) in Sweet 16 games and for those who advance to the Elite 8, those teams have gone 57-40 (.588). No. 2 seeds still in it are Alabama and Houston and No. 2 seeds are 64-25 (.719) in Sweet 16 games but the winners are just 29-35 (.453) in Elite 8 games. Checking in on the double digit seeds, No. 11 seeds (Syracuse and UCLA this tourney) have won just EIGHT of 22 Sweet 16 games but of the eight that have advanced to the Elite, HALF (four) have made the Final Four. Oregon St is a No. 12 seed and it's NOT good news that of the previous 20 teams seeded No. 12 to make the Sweet 16, just ONE has advanced to the Elite 8. The 2002 Missouri Tigers are the only 12-seed to ever make the Elite 8, where they lost 81-75 to No. 2 Oklahoma. Not for nothing but Quin Snyder was Missouri's head coach that season. Anyone know what he's doing these days? 15th-seeded Oral Roberts is the 'longest shot' still in the tourney, as the Golden Eagles join the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (pretty close nicknames, right?) as the only two No. 15 seeds to make the Sweet 16. That "Dunk City" team lost 62-50 to No. 3 Florida.The seven other teams comprising the Sweet 16 are No. 3 Arkansas, No. 4 FSU, two No. 5s in Creighton and Villanova, No. 6 USC, No. 7 Oregon and No. 8 Loyola-Chicago. Of seeds 3 through 8 making the Sweet 16, the seed with the best winning percentage is the No. 8 seed, going 8-5. Of the eight Sweet 16 winners, FIVE advanced to the Final Four and THREE to the championship game. The Kansas Jayhawks of 1988, led by Danny Manning and coached by the infamous Larry Brown, won it all beating Oklahoma 83-79! Seeds 3 through 7 have done very poorly in Sweet 16 games, going a combined 90-166 (.352). No. 5 seeds (watch out Creighton and Villanova) own the worst record among the aforementioned group, going 9-38 (.191). However, of the nine that advanced to the Elite 8, SEVEN made the Final 4. However, a No. 5 seed has NEVER won the national championship.This tournament began with no Duke or Kentucky in the field for the first time since 1976. The 1975-76 season was also memorable because it's the last time a team entered the tourney No. 1 AND unbeaten to go on and capture the title (Bobby's Knight's Hoosiers). This season the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a chance to match that feat and do so right in the "heart of Indiana'' (Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis). No. 1 seeds have won 22 titles since 1979, while No. 2 seeds have claimed five titles and No. 3 seeds have won four titles. As noted, one No. 8 seed has won a title and a No. 5 seed has never won one (see above for both examples). One No. 4 seed has won (Arizona in 1997), one No. 6 seed won (Jimmy V's 1983 NC State team) and one No. 7 seed won (UConn in 2014).Enjoy the rest of March Madness.Good luck...Larry

NCAA Basketball: Baylor/Villanova Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

Villanova plays Baylor in a Sweet 16 matchup in the South region on CBS at 5:15 PM ET.The Wildcats advanced to their third Sweet 16 in the last five tournaments with an 84-61 victory against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Villanova nailed 15 of 30 shots from 3-point land, with eight different players contributing. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl scored 18 points, and Jermaine Samuels added 15 points. The Wildcats won the National Championship under Jay Wright in 2016 and 2018, the last two times the program reached the Sweet 16.Villanova has adapted to being without Collin Gillespie, who suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this month. The senior point guard was averaging 14.0 points-per-game with 3.3 rebounds-per-game and 4.6 assists-per-game. Wright has shifted the offense to revolve around Robinson-Earl, who has averaged 20.0 points-per-game and 8.5 rebounds-per-game in his two games in this NCAA Tournament. The 6’9 sophomore averages 16.0 points-per-game and 8.3 rebounds-per-game for the season. Justin Moore has taken on more of the point guard duties in Gillespie’s absence. The sophomore averaged 15.0 points-per-game and 3.5 assists-per-game in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Wildcats rank 11th in the kenpom ratings with an 18-6 record. They finished 11-4 in the Big East regular season before getting upset by Georgetown, 72-71, in the conference tournament quarterfinals in their second game without Gillespie. Wright has seen eight games postponed this season, including six straight during a COVID pause in late December through mid-January. They have registered three wins against NCAA Tournament teams: Creighton, UConn, and Texas. They earned the fifth seed in the South region.Villanova ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They lead the nation with a turnover rate of 13.8%. They make 35.8% of their 3-point shots, ranking 72nd nationally, with 45.1% of their field goal attempts being from distance, ranking 27th nationally. They have a balanced attack with four players averaging at least 9.9 points-per-game even after losing Gillespie. The Wildcats are 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are fourth in the Big East with a defensive turnover rate of 19.4%. Villanova has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%, with these foes making 34.9% of their 3-point attempts, ranking 221st and 238th nationally.Baylor won their sixth game in their last seven with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Davion Mitchell led the team with 16 points. The Bears forced 14 turnovers which represented 21.9% of the Badgers’ possessions. The Baylor defense has been an area of concern since a three-week pause from COVID in February. The Bears had not allowed more than 69 points in their eight conference games before their shutdown after February 2nd. When they returned on February 23rd, they allowed at least 70 points in five Big 12 games and six of seven overall going into the NCAA Tournament. In their two tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin, Baylor allowed 59.0 points-per-game with a 40.4% opponent’s field goal percentage. Junior Jared Butler leads the team with a 16.9 points-per-game average. Senior Macio Teague adds 16.1 points-per-game, with Mitchell contributing another 14.1 points-per-game. Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging at least 10.9 minutes per game. Drew had six players return from the Baylor rotation that finished 26-4 last year.The Bears rank third in the kenpom ratings with a 24-2 record. They finished 13-1 in the Big 12 regular season before getting upset in the conference tournament semifinals to Oklahoma State, 83-74. Baylor has wins against Illinois, Texas Tech (twice), and Wisconsin, who rank in kenpom’s top-twenty. The Bears’ two losses are against Kansas and the Cowboys. They are the top seed in the South region.Baylor is third-best nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to kenpom. They lead the nation with a 41.5% shooting percentage from 3-point land. They rank sixth in offensive rebounding by grabbing 36.7% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is the 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third nationally. If there is a weakness to this team, it is with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots, 261st in the nation. The Bears do not get many freebies on the charity stripe, given a free throw rate that ranks 288th nationally.BetAnySports lists Baylor as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 141.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The victor plays the winner of the Arkansas/Oral Roberts contest.Computer prediction: Baylor 75 Villanova 66

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 03/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA and the NHL.Eleven games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with Brooklyn visiting Detroit. The Nets come off a 118-88 loss at Utah as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday. The Pistons have lost six of their last eight games after a 116-111 loss at Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee hosts Boston in the opening game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Bucks won their eighth straight game with a 121-119 win against the Celtics as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston has lost five of their last six games. Milwaukee is a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 233 (all odds from BetOnline).Phoenix visits Toronto at 7:30 PM ET. The Suns had their three-game winning streak end with a 112-111 upset loss at Toronto as a 9.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Raptors snapped their nine-game losing streak with a 135-111 upset win against Denver as a 1.5-point underdog. Phoenix is a 4.5-point road favorite. Denver travels to New Orleans at 8 PM ET. The Nuggets have lost two of three with their upset loss at Toronto on Wednesday. The Pelicans have won four of six with their 128-111 win against the Lakers as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Minnesota plays at home against Houston at 8 PM ET. The Timberwolves have lost three in a row with their 128-108 loss to Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Rockets have lost 21 of their last 22 games after a 122-97 setback to Charlotte as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite. Portland plays at Orlando at 8 PM ET. The Trail Blazers come off a 125-122 win at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Magic come off a 112-111 upset win at Phoenix as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Portland is a 1-point road favorite. Miami visits Charlotte at 8 PM ET. The Heat lost their fifth in a row with their loss to the Trail Blazers last night. The Hornets have won two in a row with their 122-97 victory at Houston as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas is at home against Indiana at 8:30 PM ET. The Mavericks have won three of four with their 128-108 victory at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Pacers won their third in four games with their 116-111 victory against Detroit on Wednesday. Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 227.Utah hosts Memphis at 9 PM ET. The Jazz won their third in a row with their 30-point win against Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are on a three-game winning streak after a 116-107 victory at Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah is a 9.5-point with an over/under of 226.5.Atlanta visits Golden State in the nightcap on ESPN at 10 PM ET. The Hawks have lost two in a row after their 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. The Warriors lost their third straight with their blowout loss to Sacramento last night. Atlanta is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 220.5. Cleveland visits the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 PM ET. The Cavaliers won their second game in their last three games with a 103-94 upset victory at Chicago as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Lakers lost their fourth straight game with a 109-101 loss to Philadelphia as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Four games are on the NHL schedule. The slate begins at 7 PM ET, with Washington hosting New Jersey as a -193 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. St. Louis plays at home against Anaheim at 8 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Arizona is at home against San Jose at 10 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary is the home team against Winnipeg at 10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with a total of 6.

NCAA Sweet 16 Bracketology

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

We've reached the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament with some expected names but also a number of 'Cinderellas' rounding out the remaining field. Here's a look at where you can still find value in the futures market, with three upset-minded teams that aren't ready to put away their dancing shoes just yet. To reach Final FourOregon (+650)The Ducks were actually my pre-tournament pick to come out of the West Region and I still like their chances even with arguably the best team in the country, Gonzaga, residing in that region as well. Just to play Devil's Advocate when it comes to the top-ranked Bulldogs, let's say Creighton gets hot from beyond the arc (as it is known to do) and stages the improbable but possible Sweet 16 upset. That would leave the Ducks with only a talented but inconsistent Blue Jays squad standing between them and a Final Four appearance - assuming Oregon can get past Pac-12 rival USC of course. The oddsmakers have certainly done their homework and Oregon is accurately priced to reach the Final Four, but I'm higher than most on the Ducks and feel now might be a favorable time to take a shot for a potential big return. Villanova (+550)The Wildcats are another team that I had pegged to reach the Final Four (even if I thought they would get a much tougher game from Winthrop in the opening round - oops) prior to the tournament tipping off last week. I've never been one to underestimate Jay Wright's 'Nova squads and even without Colin Gillespie we've seen the Wildcats cruise through two rounds, setting up a favorable Sweet 16 showdown with one-seed Baylor. The Bears have of course rounded back into form following a poor showing in the Big 12 Tournament. However, if one of the three top seeds remaining are going to make an unceremonious exit prior to the Elite Eight they might just be the team. Should the Wildcats upset Baylor on Saturday they would likely match up against a beatable Arkansas squad in the Elite Eight (unless Oral Roberts decides the slipper still fits). Either way, I see value with 'Nova at a healthy return to find its way into the Final Four, noting it is currently priced at around +240 to beat Baylor. Florida State (+300)Full disclosure, I had Alabama (currently priced at +180) coming out of the East Region prior to the tournament, which is still well within the realm of possibility. However, based on what I've seen so far in this tourney, I'd be willing to take a shot with the Seminoles priced at +300 or better. Michigan needed everything it had in the tank to get past LSU in the Round of 32 and draws an even tougher matchup against fourth-seeded Florida State in the Sweet 16. After scoring 80+ points without Isaiah Livers in their first two tournament games, I believe the Wolverines could be ripe for the upset against the 'Noles - who can hang with UM at both ends of the floor. Of course, it would by no means be a true shocker as Florida State is just a slight 2.5-point underdog at the time of writing. Alabama should get past UCLA, which would set up a reasonable matchup for the 'Noles in the Elite Eight, noting that LSU laid out a pretty good blueprint for beating the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, even if the Tigers ultimately fell a point short. *Note that Sean's individual game selections are independent of the recommendations on futures bets above.

MLB 2021: AL Central Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 25, 2021

AL Central Division Preview for MLB 2021Chicago White Sox – The White Sox projected to win about 90 games this season and certainly that is hard to argue with. The additions include Adam Eaton and Lance Lynn. That bolsters the outfield and the starting rotation respectively and you have to like the pitching here. Chicago has Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lynn at the top of the rotation! Cleveland Indians – Projected to play about .500 ball this season but this is a team that has had 8 consecutive winning seasons. That said, it is hard to imagine the Indians not challenging the White Sox and Twins at the top of this division. Cleveland has Bieber and Plesac at the top of the rotation. Also, Quantrill expected to be a starter and he was strong last season out of the pen. With the young, strong arm of McKenzie in the mix, if Civale also steps up this season this is a very tough rotation. The concern will be getting enough out of the hitters for sure. Detroit Tigers – This team will battle with the Royals to stay out of the cellar in the division. Which team will get to 70 wins, if even that, is the question! The Tigers are in a rebuild mode, as per usual. Manager AJ Hinch could certainly get things going in the right direction with this team but they are still lacking talent right now and have to build slowly due to some payroll missteps that have hamstrung them. Casey Mize is a solid young arm in the rotation but Matthew Boyd has greatly regressed. As for the lineup, not nearly enough power with this club. Kansas City Royals – This team will battle with the Tigers to stay out of the cellar in the division. Which team will get to 70 wins, if even that, is the question! This team looks better than Detroit though. Some good team speed, good young players that are already developing, solid defensively, but will they get enough hitting? Also, behind Keller who is solid in the rotation, the Royals will need more from Singer and especially Minor after he regressed. Minnesota Twins – This team could (and should) challenge the White Sox for the top spot in the division. One has to like your chances when your top three in the rotation are Maeda, Berrios, and Pineda. This team also has a lot of pop in its lineup with plenty of longball power. The Twins just need to hit for higher average and do a better job of getting guys on base at the top of the order and they would then definitely be the team to beat in this division. This team has excellent management and I mean from the manager of the team all the way up to the top in the front office and they are going to challenge Chicago this season. Look for at least 90 wins out of the Twins this season and if the pitching holds up they could win this division.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NHL and NBA Previews and Odds - 03/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 25, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, the NHL, and NCAA basketball.The NCAA basketball quarterfinals of the NIT take place with four games. The card tips off at 6 PM ET with Mississippi State playing Richmond. The Bulldogs won their second game in their last three with their 74-68 upset win against Saint Louis as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Spiders ended a three-game losing streak in the NIT quarterfinals with a 76-66 upset win against Toledo as a 5-point underdog last Wednesday. The Super Pit in Denton, Texas, is the site for this game that is on ESPN2. Mississippi State is a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 137.5 (all odds from BetOnline). North Carolina State faces Colorado State on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Wolfpack have won six of their last seven games after their 75-61 victory against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Rams have won two of three games with a 75-73 victory against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite in the quarterfinals on Friday. Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas, is the location. NC State is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.Memphis battles Boise State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Tigers have won two of their last three games with their 71-60 win against Dayton as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. The Broncos ended a four-game losing streak in the quarterfinals with their 85-84 win in a pick ‘em matchup with SMU last Thursday. The Super Pit is the neutral court. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Louisiana Tech faces Western Kentucky on ESPN2 at 10 PM ET. The Bulldogs have won seven of their last eight games after a 70-61 upset win against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on Friday. The Hilltoppers won their fourth game in their last five with their 69-67 upset win against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog in the quarterfinals last Wednesday. Comerica Park is the neutral court. Louisiana Tech is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 137.Five games are on the NBA docket. A doubleheader on TNT begins at 7:30 PM ET with Portland visiting Miami. The Trail Blazers have lost two in a row with their 116-112 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. The Heat got upset for the fourth straight time in a 110-100 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. The nightcap on TNT has Philadelphia visiting the Los Angeles Lakers at 10 PM ET. The 76ers have won nine of their last ten games with their 108-98 victory at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Lakers have lost three straight games after their 128-111 loss at New Orleans as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia is a 5-point road favorite with a total of 211.5.Eleven games are on the NHL schedule. Six games begin the card at 7 PM ET. The slate concludes at 9 PM ET with Colorado hosting Vegas as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. None of the games are on television.

NCAA Basketball: Coastal Carolina/Pepperdine Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/24/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 24, 2021

Coastal Carolina battles Pepperdine in the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational. This three-day event has taken place at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach in Florida. The Chanticleers advanced to the finals with their 77-72 victory in overtime against Stetson as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. Essam Mostafa scored 22 points and added 12 rebounds with 8 of his points in overtime. It was the ninth double-double of the season for the redshirt freshman. He is scoring 12.0 points-per-game and averaging 9.0 rebounds-per-game. Tyrik Dixon scored 8 of his 17 points in overtime, as well. The senior scores 11.4 points-per-game coming off the bench. DeVante Jones leads the team with a 19.8 points-per-game scoring average and a 7.2 rebounds-per-game average. The junior had nine points with five assists on Tuesday. Cliff Ellis’s team ranks 160th at kenpom with an 18-7 record after winning six of the seven games. They lost to Appalachian State in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. The Mountaineers went on to win the Championship Game against Georgia State. The Chanticleers' best victory on their resume was against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina ranks 218th in adjusted offensive efficiency using the metrics at kenpom, and they finished sixth in offensive efficiency in the Sun Belt. They rebound 35.3% of their missed shots which is the 14th best mark in the nation. An area of concern is their ability to control the basketball. They rank 304th nationally with a turnover rate of 21.6%. The Chanticleers rank 123rd nationally and second in the Sun Belt in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their opponents' effective field goal percentage of 46.0% is 26th in the nation. Their defensive 31.1% percentage from 3-point land and 45.5% mark inside the arc ranks 46th and 29th nationally. Coastal Carolina’s opponents have attempted 46.9% of their shots from 3-point range, seventh-best in the nation.Pepperdine won their semifinals game with Bellarmine yesterday by an 82-71 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Kessler Edwards led the team with 28 points. The junior is scoring 17.5 points-per-game. Senior Colbey Ross leads the team with a 17.6 points-per-game average after scoring 9 points yesterday. The Wave ranks 105th nationally in the kenpom rankings. They have won four of five games to reach their current 14-12 record. They have qualities victories against BYU and Saint Mary’s. They got few favors in the abbreviated West Coast Conference schedule with two losses to Gonzaga and BYU and a setback to the Gaels. They also lost to UCLA and San Diego State in the non-conference portion of their schedule.Pepperdine ranks 90th in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom while ranking third in the West Coast Conference. They make 52.0% of their 2-point shots, 82nd in the nation. The Wave are 128th in adjusted defensive efficiency using the kenpom numbers, and they finished sixth in the WCC in defense. Their opponents make 28.6% of their 3-pointers, the seventh-best mark nationally. But these opponents shoot 54.6% of their 2-point shots, ranking 315th nationally. BetAnySports lists Pepperdine as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 150.5. The CBI tournament is not on national television.Computer prediction: Pepperdine 77 Coastal Carolina 75

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