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NCAA Basketball: UCLA/Gonzaga Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 03, 2021

NCAAB Saturday CBS Preview: UCLA versus Gonzaga. UCLA plays Gonzaga in the second Final Four game on CBS with a tip-off time of 8:34 PM ET.The Bruins advanced to the Final Four with their 51-49 upset victory against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Johnny Juzang put his team on his shoulders with 28 points. The sophomore leads the teams with a 15.5 points-per-game scoring average. UCLA joined VCU as the only other team in tournament history to advance to the Final Four after playing in one of the First Four games. They won their play-in game, 86-80 in overtime, against Michigan State before defeating BYU and Abilene Christian to reach the Sweet 16. The Bruins needed overtime to advance to the Elite 8 in their 88-78 win against Alabama. The Bruins rank 15th in the kenpom rankings with a 22-9 record. They are 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency using the kenpom metrics. They make 36.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 44th nationally. The Bruins are 45th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They limit their opponents to rebounding 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 70th nationally. UCLA has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9%, which is the 166th worst mark in the nation. The core group of players is not the same from which Mick Cronin started the season. Chris Smith suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late December. The 6’9 senior was scoring 12.6 points-per-game while adding 6.4 rebounds-per-game. Jalen Hill is not with the team in the Indianapolis bubble for reasons listed as personal. The 6’10 junior was averaging 6.1 points-per-game and 5.5 rebounds-per-game. Cronin still has plenty of talent available to him on his roster, as evidenced by their four wins in the tournament. The Bruins returned all five starters plus most of his bench players from the team that won eleven of their last fourteen games last season. Juzang joined the team from Kentucky in the offseason. Gonzaga advanced to the Final Four with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite on Tuesday. Drew Timme paved the way with 23 points. The sophomore scores 19.2 points-per-game and averages 7.2 rebounds-per-game. Jalen Suggs added 18 points, ten rebounds, and eight assists. The freshman is scoring 14.0 points-per-game and averaging 5.5 rebounds-per-game and 4.5 assists-per-game. Corey Kispert contributed 18 points and eight rebounds. The senior averages 18.9 points-per-game and 5.0 rebounds-per-game.The Bulldogs are the last remaining undefeated team in the nation with a 29-0 record to accompany their number one ranking and top-rating at kenpom. They have rattled off 34 straight victories going back to last season, and they have won 27 in a row by double-digits. Gonzaga played a rigorous non-conference schedule that included powerhouses in Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia, and Iowa. The Bulldogs defeated Norfolk State, Oklahoma, Creighton, and then the Trojans in the NCAA Tournament.Gonzaga has the country's top adjusted offensive efficiency number according to metrics at kenpom. Their effective field goal percentage of 61.0% is tops nationally. The Zags are fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They limit their opponents to rebound 23.0% of their missed shots, 18th best in the nation. If there is a crack in the armor, it might start with their half-court defense. Their opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 47.0%, which is only 41st nationally. Mark Few returned three players from his seven-man rotation that finished 31-2 last season and looked poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament as a number one seed. This group may be Few’s most talented roster in his 22 seasons as the Gonzaga head coach. Lucas Oil Stadium is the site. BetAnySports lists Gonzaga as a 14-point favorite with the total set at 145.5.Computer prediction:  Gonzaga 80 UCLA 64

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2021 NCAA Tournament: An ATS Review of the First Four Rounds

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Apr 03, 2021

The 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament has been the most predictable, and least predictable at the same time.  On the most predictable end of things, it is no surprise that the two best teams - Gonzaga and Baylor - are in the Final Four, and rank as the favorites to be playing on Monday in the championship game.  On the least predictable side of things, this tournament has had 14 upsets by a team seeded at least 5 spots worse than its opponent, which is the most such upsets in the history of the tournament.  Likewise, this tournament has had the most wins by teams seeded 10 (or worse), as there have been 16 (not including the four "First Four" games).One of those double-digit seeds, #11 UCLA, has reached the Final Four, along with #1 seeds Gonzaga and Baylor, and #2 seed Houston.Let's take a look at first four rounds of this tournament, from a point spread perspective.  We'll not include the First Four games in this analysis.  And the other thing to take note of is that the 1st round game between #7 Oregon and #10 VCU was cancelled due to COVID-19, so there have been 59 games played, rather than the usual 60.Notwithstanding the fact that the double-digit seeds have done well, underdogs have only gone 30-29 ATS in this tournament, overall (34-29 ATS if you include the First Four games).  Here is a breakdown by seeds:#1 seeds:  12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS#2 seeds: 7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS#3 seeds: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS#4 seeds: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS#5 seeds: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS#6 seeds: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS#7 seeds: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS#8 seeds: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS#9 seeds: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS#10 seeds: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS#11 seeds: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS#12 seeds: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS#13 seeds: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS#14 seeds: 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS#15 seeds: 2-4 SU, 5-1 ATS#16 seeds: 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATSAnd here is a breakdown of point spread ranges:Underdogs of +3.5 or less:  7-6 ATSUnderdogs +4 to +7.5:  10-15 ATSUnderdogs +8 to +11.5:  8-2 ATSUnderdogs of +12 or more:  5-6 ATSThe games have tended to go under the total, as the unders are 34-24-1 through the first four rounds (37-25-1 if you include the "First Four games).Let's take a look at some other point spread situations:Teams that won their conference tournament (against foes that didn't win their conference tournament):  17-12 ATSTeams off a straight-up loss (against foes not off a loss):  9-9 ATSTeams off back-to-back losses (against foes not off back-to-back losses):  3-0 ATSTeams off ATS loss (against foes not off an ATS loss):  12-11 ATSTeams off back-to-back-ATS losses (against foes not off back-to-back ATS losses):  10-3 ATSTeams off back-to-back ATS wins (against foes not off back-to-back ATS wins): 20-13 ATSTeams off 3 SU/ATS wins (against foes not off 3 SU/ATS wins):  15-7 ATSTeams playing with revenge:  2-3 ATSGood luck, as always...Al McMordie 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, EPL, NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 04/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 03, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in the EPL, NBA, NHL, MLB and NCAA Basketball.The college basketball Final Four tips off with Houston playing Baylor on CBS at 5:14 PM ET. The Cougars won their eleventh straight game with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite in the Elite 8 on Monday. The Bears won their fourth straight with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Lucas Oil Stadium is the site. Baylor is a 5-point favorite with the total set at 134.5 (all odds from BetOnline). UCLA plays Gonzaga in the second Final Four game on CBS with a tip-off time of 8:34 PM ET. The Bruins won their fifth straight with a 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Bulldogs continued their perfect season with an 85-66 victory against USC as a 12-point favorite on Tuesday. Lucas Oil Stadium is the site. Gonzaga is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5.Eight games are on the NBA docket. None of the games are on national television. The card tips off at 7 PM ET, with Dallas playing at Washington at 7 PM ET. Two games conclude the card at 10 PM ET. Milwaukee visits Sacramento as a -6.5 point road favorite with the total at 239. Portland plays at home against Oklahoma City as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 228.Eleven games are on the NHL slate. None of the games are on national television. Two games begin the card at 1 PM ET. Boston hosts Pittsburgh as a -107 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Tampa Bay is at home against Detroit as a -375 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The last game on the schedule is at 10 PM ET, with San Jose visiting Los Angeles. Fourteen games are on the MLB schedule. The card begins at 1:05 PM ET with the New York Yankees at home against Toronto. The Bronx Bombers send out Corey Kluber to face the Blue Jays’ Ross Stripling. The Yankees are a -165 money line favorite with the total at 9. A doubleheader on FS1 begins at 4:05 PM ET with Atlanta playing at Philadelphia. The Phillies won their opening game of the season in a 3-2 win in ten innings against the Braves on Wednesday. Charlie Morton pitches for Atlanta against Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler. The Braves are a -107 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Dodgers visits Colorado in the second game on FS1 at 8:10 PM ET. Los Angeles won the second game of this series by an 11-6 score on Friday. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against the Rockies’ Jon Gray. Los Angeles is a -221 money line road favorite with the total at 11.5. The MLB card concludes at 9:10 PM ET with San Francisco visiting Seattle. The Giants send out Logan Webb to face the Mariners’ Chris Flexen. San Francisco is a -114 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Four games begin Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League. All four games are on the NBC Sports Network. Chelsea hosts West Bromwich Albion at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Leeds United is at home against Sheffield United at 10 AM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Manchester City visits Leicester City at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with the total at 2.5. Liverpool travels to Arsenal at 3 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75.

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NCAA Basketball: Houston/Baylor Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 02, 2021

NCAAB Saturday CBS Preview: Houston versus Baylor. Houston plays Baylor in the first Final Four game on Saturday on CBS with a tip-off time of 5:14 PM ET.The Cougars have won 11 games in a row after their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Houston held a 17-point lead early in the second half before the Beavers knotted the game at 55 with under four minutes to go. The Cougars pulled away on the free-throw line to overcome a 29% shooting percentage in the second half. Marcus Sasser paved the way with 20 points. The sophomore is second on the team with a 13.5 points-per-game scoring average. Junior Quentin Grimes added 18 points to match his 18.0 points-per-game scoring average. Senior DeJon Jarreau contributed 10 points with eight rebounds and eight assists. The American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year is averaging 10.8 points-per-game, 5.5 rebounds-per-game, and 4.4 assists-per-game. Kelvin Sampson returned five of the top seven scorers from the group last year that finished 23-8 and 13-5 in the AAC. The Cougars finished the regular season with a 14-3 record. Sampson has a veteran group with four seniors and two juniors in his rotation. Houston ranks third in the kenpom rankings with a 28-3 record. Their three losses were against Tulsa, East Carolina, and Wichita State.The Cougars are seventh in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom, and they are second-best in the country by rebounding 39.8% of their missed shots. Houston ranks eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom, and they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. They have top-11 marks in both defensive 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages. The Cougars force turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 53rd nationally.Baylor won their fourth straight game with an 81-72 win against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. MaCio Teague led the team with 22 points. The senior is scoring 15.9 points-per-game. Davion Mitchell added 12 points, with ten coming in the second half. The junior is scoring 14.0 points-per-game, and he leads the team with a 5.3 assists-per-game average. Junior Jared Butler is the team’s leading scorer with a 16.5 points-per-game average. Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging at least 10.9 minutes per game. Six players returned from the Baylor rotation that finished 26-4 last year.The Bears rank second in the kenpom ratings with a 26-2 record. They finished 13-1 in the Big 12 regular season before getting upset in the conference tournament semifinals to Oklahoma State, 83-74. Baylor has wins against Illinois, Texas Tech (twice), Wisconsin, Villanova, and Arkansas, who all rank in kenpom’s top-twenty. The Bears’ two losses were against Kansas and the Cowboys. Baylor is third-best nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to kenpom. They lead the nation with a 41.1% shooting percentage from 3-point land. They rank seventh in offensive rebounding by grabbing 36.6% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is the 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third nationally. If there is a weakness to this team, it is with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their missed shots, 273rd in the nation. The Bears do not get many freebies on the charity stripe, given a free throw rate that ranks 295th nationally.BookMaker lists Baylor as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 134.5. Lucas Oil Stadium is the site. The victor plays the winner of the UCLA-Gonzaga contest for the National Championship on Monday.Computer prediction:  Baylor 70 Houston 65

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NBA Weekend Shootaround: April 3-4

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Apr 02, 2021

It's hard to believe we've already reached the first weekend in April and with it comes a full slate of NBA action as the regular season stretch run heats up. Here's a look at several matchups to keep your eye on as the lines are released on Saturday and Sunday.SaturdayTimberwolves at 76ers, 8 pm etWe saw the 76ers rise to the occasion in what could have been a flat spot at the end of their long road trip in Cleveland on Thursday. Of course, Philadelphia was looking to snap a two-game skid in that situation so perhaps it wasn't all that difficult for it to get up for the game, even if it was against the lowly Cavaliers. Here, the 76ers face another league bottom-dweller in the Timberwolves. It's advantage 76ers here as Minnesota plays in Memphis on Friday night. In face, this will be Minnesota's fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities no less. Should Philadelphia jump out to an early lead Minnesota might already start packing its bags for home as it hosts the Kings in a more winnable contest (relatively speaking) on Monday. Thunder at Blazers, 10 pm etThis might be a tricky spot for the Blazers as they play the second of back-to-back nights after returning home to host the Bucks on just one day of rest following a four-game road trip on the opposite end of the continent. That's not to mention the fact that their opponent, the Thunder, aren't going to draw a great deal of motivation, noting that the Blazers already exacted revenge for an earlier-season loss at home against Oklahoma City, winning by double-digits in OKC back on February 16th. Portland rarely blows anyone out here at home - in fact, it has been outscored by 1.5 points per game on average here in the Pacific Northwest this season (entering Friday's action). Just something to keep in mind should we see a crooked number in favor of the Blazers on Saturday.SundayNets at Bulls, 3 pm etThe Bulls have been reeling lately and wrap up a disappointing road trip against the league-leading Jazz on Friday night before returning home for this matinee affair with the Nets on Sunday. This could actually serve as a sneaky-good spot to back the Bulls should they be catching enough points against a Nets squad that has been rolling. Brooklyn enters the weekend on a four-game winning streak, stringing together six consecutive quarters of incredible basketball against the Rockets and Hornets over its last couple of contests. Is this a spot where we'll see the Nets bring their 'A' game though? I'm not so sure. While the Bulls have been struggling, they're not short on talent and the new faces they brought in prior to the trade deadline have had ample time to get acclimated. You'll need to keep your eye on the injury report for both teams as James Harden has been banged-up for Brooklyn while Zach LaVine has missed time for Chicago. Magic vs. Nuggets, 10 pm etThis is a tough scheduling spot for Orlando as it plays the second of back-to-back nights, in altitude, against the Nuggets on Sunday night. We've seen some promising play from the Magic on this trip - surprising to most after their roster was gutted prior to the trade deadline. Of course, there's a chance Orlando is already satisfied enough with its performance on this five-game western swing that it checks out should it fall behind early against the superior Nuggets. Denver has been frustratingly inconsistent at times this season, especially given the talent it has on hand, but we have seen it round into form lately, reeling off four straight wins heading into the opener of a five-game homestand. You can be sure Aaron Gordon will be looking to show up and show out against his former squad. While we're likely going to be looking at a steep number in favor of the Nuggets here, it might just be warranted in a game that has true blowout potential. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, MLB and NBA Previews and Odds - 04/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 02, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and MLB.Ten games are on the NBA docket. None of the games are on national television. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with Golden State playing at Toronto. Boston hosts Houston, and Dallas plays at New York at 7:30 PM ET. Charlotte visits Indiana at 8 PM ET. Memphis hosts Minnesota at 8 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 231.5 (all odds from BetOnline) at 8 PM ET. Atlanta travels to New Orleans, and Chicago visits Utah at 9 PM ET.  Phoenix plays at home against Oklahoma City at 10 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Milwaukee visits Portland as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total at 237. Sacramento is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5.Six games are on the NHL docket. None of the games are on national television. Washington visits New Jersey at 7 PM ET. Winnipeg plays at home against Toronto at 8 PM ET as a -141 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton hosts Calgary at 9 PM ET as a -141 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Colorado plays at home as a -230 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings is at home against San Jose at 10 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Arizona visits Anaheim as a -116 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5.Seven games are on the MLB schedule. Boston is at home against Baltimore at 2:10 PM ET in the makeup of the rain out of their Opening Day yesterday. The Red Sox send out Nathan Eovaldi with the Orioles countering with John Means. Boston is a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5.Tampa Bay visits Miami at 7:10 PM ET. The Rays send out Ryan Yarbrough with the Marlins giving the ball to Pablo Lopez. The Rays are a -109 money line road favorite with the total at 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Colorado at 8:40 PM ET. The Dodgers have Trevor Bauer making his debut for them while Antonio Senzatela takes the mound. Los Angeles is a -258 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Chicago White Sox at 9:38 PM ET. Andrew Heaney takes the mound for the Angels, while Dallas Keuchel is the starting pitcher for the White Sox. Los Angeles is a -120 money line favorite, with the total at 8.5. Oakland hosts Houston at 9.40 PM ET. Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for the A’s, with Christian Javier making the start for the Astros. Oakland is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. San Diego plays at home against Arizona at 10:10 PM ET. The Padres’ debut Blake Snell who faces Merrill Kelly. San Diego is a -230 money line favorite with the total at 8.5. Seattle is at home against San Francisco with Yusei Kikuchi dueling against Johnny Cueto. The Mariners are a -122 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.

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Harden For MVP?

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Apr 01, 2021

One of the few certainties in the NBA is that if you put the ball in the hands of James Harden enough, numbers will accumulate at a rapid rate. Points, of course, but also assists. Opponents will foul him, leading to embarrassing numbers of free throws.You may not give him style points for his ball-dominant isolation style, but when the day is done you can’t argue with the numbers.And because of those numbers, Harden is making the argument – both on the court and to the media – that no one else in the Association is more valuable to his team than he is to the Brooklyn Nets."Do I feel like I belong in it? I feel like I am the MVP," Harden said after he dropped an easy 44 on the Pistons' heads. "I mean, it's just that simple. I don't want to be speaking individually on myself. I am just going to leave it at that." Not leaving it at that, he added: "Numbers are showing it for itself, and we're winning. That's all I can say."Oddsmakers, who had been pushing back against the Harden MVP talk, are just now starting to come around. Listed at +900 only a few weeks again and a pedestrian fifth behind Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo among betting favorites, Harden is now second, at +700.Harden has finished second in the MVP voting three times, and his scoring this year is actually down a bit from the season (2017-18) that he actually won it. But his assists and rebounding totals are higher, and he takes fewer shots – of course, that will happen when you are on the court with two other future Hall of Famers in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant.With Durant injured and Irving missing games simply because he’s Irving and that’s what Irving does, the spotlight has been on Harden. And if you believe, like more than a few voters, that the MVP award should go to the best player on the best team, consider that the Nets recently took over first place in the Eastern Conference, and with James and Anthony Davis limping around out West, Brooklyn is now the betting favorite to win the championship.People outside of New York City may not like the way Harden gave up on the Rockets and shot his way out of town after a few weeks this season, but the NBA is what it is, and if it’s results you want, Harden gives them to you.Early MVP buzz centered around Philly’s Embiid, who pre-All Star game was having a career year and leading the 76ers to the top of the East (again, the best player on the best team). But a bone bruise sent Embiid to the sidelines, and by the time he returns he will have missed more than one-fourth of the season with injuries as the Sixers have fallen behind the Nets.Jokic’s Nuggets are a distant 22/1 to win the title, oddsmakers figuring that they would have to pull two major series upsets to even get to the Finals. Then there’s this – if the MVP Award goes to the league’s most valuable player, pull Harden off the Nets and you still have a team that could easily to the Finals. Subtract Jokic from Denver and the Nuggets are a lottery team.But if you want to take the Harden approach and compare numbers, Jokic has a pretty strong argument. He scores (27.2 per game) more than Harden, he rebounds (11.1) more than Harden and he is sixth in the league in assists at 8.6 (behind five guards, one of them being Harden). Plus, Jokic basically brought a slow-starting Nuggets team back from the dead. Denver is on pace to win 45 games in the 72-game season and has a puncher’s chance to finish as high as second in the West. Because of Jokic, mainly.Embiid is likely to be babied by the Sixers for the rest of the season. James also knows nothing much matters until the playoffs, and in Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo won’t be going pedal to the metal after winning the award in each of the last two seasons. So it looks like Jokic and Harden in a match race as the NBA season heads to the backstretch.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 04/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 01, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, the NHL, and MLB.Seven games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with two games. A doubleheader on TNT begins at 7:30 PM ET with Charlotte visiting Brooklyn. The Hornets have won four of their last five games with their 114-104 win at Washington as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. The nightcap on TNT has Denver playing in Los Angeles against the Clippers at 10 PM ET. The Nuggets won their third in a row with their 104-95 win against Philadelphia as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Clippers had their six-game winning streak end with a 103-96 upset loss at home to Orlando as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday.Nine games are on the NHL slate. Five games begin the card at 7 PM ET. A doubleheader on the NBC Sports Network at 8 PM ET with Carolina traveling to Chicago. The Hurricanes’ three-game winning streak ended on Tuesday in a 2-1 loss on the road against the Blackhawks. Chicago ended their two-game losing streak with the victory. Carolina is a -156 money line road favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from BetOnline).The NHL card concludes with Vegas hosting Minnesota on the NBC Sports Network at 10:30 PM ET. The Golden Knights had their two-game winning streak end on Wednesday in a 4-2 loss at home to the Los Angeles Kings. Vegas registered 40 shots, yet it was only William Karlsson and Shea Theodore who scored. Marc Andre-Fleury made 26 saves. The loss ended a six-game winning streak on their home ice at T-Mobile Arena, and it was just their third loss at home in regulation this season.The Wild have lost two in a row after a 4-2 loss at San Jose on Wednesday. This defeat came on the heels of a 4-3 road loss in a shootout against the Sharks on Monday. Kirill Kaprizov and Matts Zuccarello scored for Minnesota.Opening day in Major League Baseball has 15 games. ESPN broadcasts four games. The first pitch takes place at 1 PM ET, with the New York Yankees hosting Toronto. The Yankees send out Gerrit Cole to battle against the Blue Jays' Hyun-Jin Ryu. New York is a -172 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Colorado on ESPN at 4 PM ET. Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for the World Series champions while German Marquez pitches for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a -210 money line road favorite with a total of 11.5.The New York Mets play at Washington on ESPN at 7 PM ET. Jacob DeGrom pitches for the Mets, and Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. New York is a -147 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The MLB card concludes on ESPN at 10 PM ET with Oakland playing at home against Houston. The A’s send out Chris Bassitt to face the Astros' Zack Greinke. Oakland is a -106 money line favorite with the total at 8.5.

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Ness Notes: "And then there were Four!"

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

The 2021 NCAA Tournament got underway back on March 18 with 68 teams, eight of whom played in the "First Four" to cut the field of 64. The main question entering the tourney was "Could the 26-0 Gonzaga Bulldogs (the AP's No. 1 team since the preseason) win SIX straight games and match Bobby Knight's 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers and go 32-0 to finish an unbeaten season and win the national title?" Only four schools have won a national title while also going unbeaten. The list includes San Francisco (1956), North Carolina (1957), UCLA (1964, 1967, 1972, 1973) and Indiana (1976). Spoiler alert! The "little school from Spokane" has reached the Final Four for just the second time in school history and is now just TWO wins away from completing a "perfect season!" However, before looking a little closer at this season's Final Four, let me begin where I left off with my previous Ness Notes back on March 26.The NCAA defines an upset as a team seeded five spots or lower than their opponent. The 2021 tourney set a record with 12 such "upsets" BEFORE a Sweet 16 game had been played. Double digit seeds set a record by winning 14 games in the 2016 tournament (no counting First Four contests) and after four days of 1st and 2nd round games, that figure has been matched at 14. Heading into the Sweet 16 and then the Elite 8, favorites were 31-20 (.608) and 22-29 ATS (43.1%) and that's only because favorites went 7-1 SU & ATS on the final day of the Round of 32.Sweet 16 favorites went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS but two more double digit seeds won, No. 12 Oregon St over No. 8 Loyola-Chicago and No. 11 UCLA over No. 2 Alabama. That extended the all-time tourney record to 16 wins by double digit seeds in 2021 and UCLA's win added another "upset win" (now 13 and counting). The Elite 8 was composed of three No. 1 seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan), a No. 2 seed (Houston), a No. 6 seed (USC) plus double digit seeds UCLA (11) and Oregon St (12). When all the "dust had settled," the favorites would go 3-1 but 2-2 ATS. No. 1s Gonzaga and Baylor won and covered but No. 1 Michigan was upset by UCLA 51-49, giving the 2021 tourney its 17th win by a double digit seed and its 14th "upset win." I didn't forget about the Houston/Oregon St game which was won by the Cougars, 67-61 (OSU covered). The Beavers' season ended in the Elite 8, as this year's team failed to make the school's third-ever Final 4 appearance (most recent came back in 1963). However, Oregon St (picked to finish last in the Pac-12 standings at the start of the season) sure quieted its critics (and made its bettors VERY happy) by going 14-1 ATS over its final 15 games. Speaking of pointspreads, here's how the 2021 tourney stands entering the Final 4. Favorites are 40-23 SU (.634) but 29-34 ATS (46.0%). I guess it's somewhat ironic that the "longest shot" in the Final 4 field is UCLA (11-seed), which just happens to be the most-honored program in NCAA basketball history. This is UCLA's 50th tournament appearance and the Bruins are in their 19th Final Four. UCLA has won 11 national titles but as everyone knows, 10 of those came under the legendary John Wooden (from 1964-1975). UCLA's 11th title came in 1995. UCLA is just the FIFTH 11th seed to reach the Final 4, joining LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006, VCU in 2011 (like UCLA, advancing with FIVE wins after playing in the First Four) and Loyola-Chicago in 2018. None of the previous 11-seeds have won their semifinal matchups and with UCLA's opponent being Gonzaga, 11-seeds are staring a 0-5 record right in the face. Then again, as noted above, this HAS been a tournament of upsets and NO conference has accomplished more than the Pac 12 in 2021.UCLA scored the eighth Pac-12 upset in this year's tournament, setting a March Madness record since the tournament expanded to include 64 teams in 1985. The previous high-water mark for a conference was seven upsets, which the Big East and the SEC did in 1985 and 1986, respectively. The Big Ten may have placed NINE teams in this year's "Big Dance'' but only Michigan reached the Sweet 16, as the conference which placed FOUR teams in the AP's final top-8, went a collective 8-9 SU & ATS. Meanwhile. UCLA, Oregon St, USC and Oregon have gone 12-3 SU & 13-2 ATS. Maybe, the Bruins are not yet done.Houston is hardly a 'longshot' but the Cougars join UCLA as one of two non-No. 1 seeds in the 2021 Final Four. However, Houston is the first team to ever reach the Final Four by getting to play four double-digit seeds in a single tournament. The Cougars beat No. 15 Cleveland State, No. 10 Rutgers, No. 11 Syracuse and No. 12 Oregon State. The win over the Beavers gives Houston a 6-0 all-time record in the Elite Eight, the most wins without a loss by any program since the round began in 1951. However, NONE of the previous five Houston Final Four teams emerged with a national title. If Houston's luck were to change in 2021, the Cougars would become just the THIRD non-power 5 conference school to win the title since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985  (Houston plays in the AAC). Louisville (playing in the now-defunct Metro Conference) beat Duke 72-69 to win the 1986 title and UNLV (playing the Big West) won in 1990 by routing Duke 103-73. I'm sure Kelvin Sampson wishes Duke could be his team's opponent in the title game on Monday if the Cougars were to get past Baylor in Saturday's semifinal matchup.Speaking of Baylor, let's hear a shout out to Scott Drew. He took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and had made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine) entering this season.  Baylor won the first-ever Big 12 regular-season title this season, the first league championship since the Bears won the SWC regular season in 1950. This is Drew's ninth NCAA appearance with the Bears and Baylor reached the Sweet 16 for the FIFTH time in the last 12 years. The Elite 8 appearance was his third with Baylor and now it's his first Final Four appearance. Baylor opened the season No. 1 behind Baylor but COVID-19 nearly derailed Baylor's dream season, with the Bears being forced to pause for three weeks in February. A 17-0 record before the pause was quickly tarnished with a 13-point loss at Kansas in their second game back. Baylor then lost again in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament, but here the Bears are in the Final Four for just the THIRD time in school history (1948 and 1950).The last Final Four team left to discuss is Gonzaga, which enters 30-0, having won all but ONE game this season by more than double digits. Mark Few took over at Gonzaga for the 1999-2000 season and has led the Bulldogs to 21 NCAA tourneys in his 22 seasons (exception being last year, when March Madness was canceled). At 30-0, Gonzaga became the first Division I program to win 30-plus games for FIVE straight seasons. Gonzaga was 31-2 last year, 33-4 in 2019, 32-5 in 2018 and 37-2 in 2017, when Gonzaga made its only other Final appearance, losing in the championship game to North Carolina. Gonzaga was just 12-12-2 ATS entering the "Big Dance" but is 4-0 ATS so far. The Zags beat Norfolk St by 43 points (as a 33-point favorite) and then covered its next three games with an average winning margin of 17.7 points, while laying an average of just over 12 points.Odds as of Wednesday night have Baylor favored by five points over Houston and Gonzaga favored by 14 points over UCLA (note: largest Final 4 favorite since 1985). Enjoy the final three games of this year's 'Dance!'Good luck...Larry

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UCLA's Defense Spearheads its Final Four Run

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

UCLA reached the Final Four on Tuesday in a 51-49 victory against Michigan. The Bruins only shot 38.9% from the field but they stymied the Wolverines to just a 39.2% field goal percentage to hold them off and grind out a low-scoring victory that only had 100 combined points scored. Probably just like their head coach Mick Cronin likes it.In our write-up for UCLA in their upset victory against Alabama on Sunday, we wrote: “(Mick Cronin) may have made a breakthrough with his team after they gave up 44 points in the first half to Michigan State in the play-in game. The Bruins allowed only 36 points in the next 25 minutes which included an overtime session with UCLA rallying from a double-digit deficit to win and advance. The Bruins defense has been suffocating ever since. In their 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian on Monday, UCLA held them to just 29.8% shooting including 15 misses of their 19 shots from the 3-point line. Since halftime against the Spartans, the Bruins have played their next 105 minutes in the NCAA tournament at a defensive rate that would translate into 55.2 points-per-game on 42.4% shooting. This is the formula for success for Cronin.” UCLA’s 88-78 final score victory against the Crimson Tide was misleading since the score was tied at 65 at the end of regulation. That was 9.5 points below the closing over/under number. The Bruins scored a surprising 23 points in the five-minute overtime period to cruise to the victory. They held Alabama to just a 43.5% field goal percentage. Even after the Tide scored 78 points on Sunday, the UCLA defensive numbers continued to look impressive. Since the start of the second half against Michigan State through their game against Alabama, the Bruins were holding their opponents to 42.3% shooting from the field and limiting their opponents to a scoring rate that would see just 59.4 points-per-game. Cronin goes into the Final Four with defensive numbers that translate into holding their opponents to 57.3 points-per-game on 42.1% shooting since that opening first half against the Spartans. This includes UCLA playing three teams that ranked in the top thirty in the nation in offensive efficiency in those 190 minutes of play including a Michigan team that was ranked seventh nationally at the time. Now the Bruins face the nation’s top offensive team in Gonzaga who are putting up historic numbers. It remains to be seen if UCLA can stay competitive in this game. If they can, it will likely be because they turn the game into a rock-fight like they successfully did against the Wolverines. Good luck - TDG.

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Finding Hidden Value: CBB Maryland’s Home/Road Splits

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

Maryland’s head coach Mark Turgeon seemed to shift his tactics a bit after his team lost at Michigan, 87-63, on January 19th. There were 70 possessions in that game. The Terrapins did not see 70 possessions for the next 12 games lasting through the rest of the regular season. Turgeon slowed the pace of the games down particularly on the road. This change in approach helped to create some great betting opportunities later in the season. Let’s look at Maryland's first-round game in the NCAA Tournament against UConn.The Terrapins’ defensive prowess was underappreciated entering that game against the Huskies. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home at the time, they jumped to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road either on a neutral court or in true road games. But Turgeon was also seeing a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins were 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fell to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They were scoring 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which was -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland seemed to be clearly improving their play on defense as the season moved on. They had held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after Michigan made 51.7% of their shots against them on a neutral court in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. They ranked 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season going into the NCAA Tournament. Playing away from home where their offense declines but their defense improves offered an intriguing Under opportunity. But I do not handicap if I do not see complementary evidence from the other team involved in the game. In this instance, there was strong evidence from UConn that supported a play on the Under. The Huskies led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home at the time, they improved to fifth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road! And to put the icing on the cake, UConn was only making 40% of their shots on the road which resulted in 67.7 PPG which was -4.8 PPG below their season average. The Maryland/UConn Under was our 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year — and we were rewarded with a winning ticket after the Terrapins held the Huskies to just 54 points in their 63-54 victory that fell comfortably below the total that closed in the high 120s.This discovery about Maryland’s distinct play when playing away from College Park also played a significant role in the winning of our 25* CBB Big Ten Total of Year with the Under in the Terrapins’ 60-55 win at Northwestern on March 3rd. The Terrapins’ strong defensive play on the road also played a role in our backing them in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament against a Michigan State team that played significantly better at home at the Breslin Center than they did on the road. Finding the hidden value in Maryland’s home/road defensive splits made the winning difference on several occasions.Best of luck for us — Frank. 

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Finding Hidden Value: CBB Arkansas’ Home/Road Defensive Splits

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2021

The NCAA Tournament Elite 8 matchup between Arkansas and Baylor presented great value on the Bears. The Razorbacks had once again skirted danger for the third straight game in the 2021 Big Dance by falling behind by double-digits against Oral Roberts before rallying for the win. I argued at the time that the Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Baylor did not win by 20 points — but they built a 29-11 cushion in the first half which helped them cover the 7.5-point spread with their 81-72 victory. It was not just the inconsistent play that worried me about Arkansas — it was their particular vulnerabilities they demonstrated that generated their lapses in play. The Razorbacks entered that game ranked 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. However, they fell to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Handicappers that only looked at overall Net Efficiency may have overlooked this discrepancy. Let’s put a microscope on this. Arkansas had the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fell to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. I argued that Baylor was the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wanted to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only made 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home at the time, ranking 187th in the nation. Baylor made only 3 of 19 (15.8%) of their shots from behind the arc in their Sweet 16 game against Villanova despite leading the nation with a 41.5% clip from 3-point land at the time. Against this Arkansas team that had such disparate home/road splits regarding opponent 3-point shooting, the Bears converted 8 of their 15 (53.2%) of their 3-pointers to make the difference in their win and point spread cover. And we won our 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year on Baylor! Finding the hidden value in Arkansas’ home/road defensive splits made the winning difference. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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