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Ness Notes: Monday, Sep 28

by Larry Ness

Monday, Sep 28, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."The NFL concludes its Week 3 schedule with its marquee game, as the defending champion KC Chiefs (2-0) visit Baltimore to take on the 2-0 Ravens. This was the matchup all anticipated to be last season's AFC championship game but the 14-2 Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 by the Tennessee Titans. Does it get any better than Mahomes vs Jackson? The Ravens are favored by 3 points (-125) at BetAnySports. I'll recap NFL Week 3 in Tuesday's Ness Notes but first let's look back at the college football weekend.There were three games featuring top-25 opponents (had been just ONE, prior to Saturday) and the higher ranked team won all three (2-1 ATS). Fourteen other ranked teams were in action against an unranked opponent and while 12 of the 14 won, the group went just 5-8-1 ATS. As September comes to a close, ranked teams vs unranked opponents are 24-4 SU but only 10-17-1 ATS (that's 37.0 percent). The two losses by ranked teams were more than a little noteworthy. No. 3 Oklahoma welcomed Kansas St to Norman looking for revenge from last season's 48-41 loss at Manhattan, as a 23.5 point favorite. Kansas State lost its home opener to Arkansas State two weeks ago and had its roster depleted by COVID-19 but came back from a 35-14 deficit in the late third quarter to win, 38-35 as a four-TD underdog. The Wildcats outscored the Sooners 17-0 in the fourth quarter and after giving up 455 yards the first three quarters, held Oklahoma to 62 yards in the fourth. It marked K-State's first-ever road win over a top-3 opponent and its first win while playing as an unranked team against an AP top-3 opponent in 30 tries (now 1-29!).Defending champion LSU opened its season against Miss St, as Mike Leach made his SEC coaching debut for the Bulldogs. Miss St, led by K.J. Costello (a Stanford graduate transfer) ended LSU's 17-game winning streak with a 44-34 upset as a little more than a two-TD underdog. Leach's "Air Raid" offense suited Costello just fine, as he threw six TD passes plus set an SEC-record with 623 passing yards. LSU became the first defending champ to lose its season opener since Michigan did so back in 1998.<p>Speaking of rankings, the latest AP poll was released on Sunday afternoon. It was sure a poll unlike any before it (AP began its poll back in 1936), as the AP decided that all FBS schools planning to play in 2020 could be included (note Big Ten starts Oct 24 and Pac-12 schools are expected to return Nov 6). Clemson remains No. 1 (55 of 62 1st-place votes) and Alabama, after extending its record of consecutive wins over an unranked opponent to 92 with a win 38-19 at Missouri, sits No. 2 with three, first-place votes. Ohio St, which was a close No. 2 to Clemson in the preseason poll, is ranked No. 6 and actually got four first-place votes. The Buckeyes were one of FIVE schools ranked in the AP's preseason poll to enter Sunday's poll, despite not yet playing. Miss St, unranked in the preseason, entered the poll at No. 16. SIX schools dropped out of the poll, including No. 19 ULL which improved to 3-0,  No. 20 Va Tech which beat NC State 45-24 despite missing 23 players due to COVID-19 and No. 25 Marshall which was idle.The 2020 NBA Finals are set, as the LA Lakers (No. 1 seed in the West) will meet the Miami Heat (No. 5 seed in the East. The Lakers (including their beginnings in Minneapolis) are in the Finals for the 32nd time in franchise history (but first appearance since 2010) and a 17th title would tie them with the Celtics for the most all-time, Miami is making its sixth Finals appearance (win in ) but first without longtime star Dwyane Wade. Game 1 is set for Thursday. Full preview and NBA postseason numbers to-date, in Wednesday's Notes.Bye-Bye Denver and Boston. Entering this season's Western conference finals with the Lakers, the Nuggets had played FOUR consecutive seven-game series the last two postseasons. They won their first in 2019 against Utah, but then lost to the Blazers last season, as Portland won Games 6 and 7. Here in 2020, the Nuggets fell behind the Jazz AND the Clippers 3-1 but came back to capture each one in seven games. In the process, Denver became the first team in NBA history to rally from a 3-1 series deficit TWICE in the same postseason. In the East, Boston swept longtime rival Philly 4-0 in the first round but after taking the first two games against defending champions Toronto, needed seven games to dispatch the Raptors. Boston's performance in the East Finals against the Miami Heat was an abject embarrassment. Boston heads into the offseason, dealing with the reality that they collapsed in the second half of THREE of its four losses. Boston entered the 4th-quarter of Game up 12 but the Heat forced OT and won. Boston then owned a 17-point lead in the first half of Game 2 but didn't wait for the final period to collapse, getting outscored 37-17 in the third quarter. Boston then gave up a 26-6 fourth-quarter run in Game 6 that officially sealed its fate.The Stanley Cup final continues with Game 6 on Monday. The Lightning took a 3-1 series lead with a 5-4 OT win in Game 4 on Friday but playing the very next night, the Stars staved off elimination with a 3-2 win in double-OT. However, they still trail 3-2 and the Lightning are a perfect 6-0 in games following a playoff loss in this year's postseason. Tampa Bay is a minus-160 favorite at BetAnySports. MLB's COVID-shortened season is complete and its 16-team playoff-field starts play tomorrow. I'll feature some random thoughts on the 2020 MLB season in Tuesday Notes, along with that NFL Week 3 recap.Good luck...Larry

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NFL Monday Night Football: Ravens/Chiefs Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 28, 2020

After a prime-time showdown, last night, between future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees for Sunday Night Football, the Monday Night Football showdown features a duel between the two quarterbacks who have won the last two NFL Most Valuable Player awards. Patrick Mahomes has led the reigning Super Bowl champions to a 2-0 start this season. The 2018 league MVP completed 27 of 47 passes last Sunday for 302 yards in Los Angeles while rallying the Chiefs to a late touchdown to force overtime where they defeated the Chargers by a 23-20 score. Mahomes added another 54 yards on the ground for 356 of total yardage in the game. Kansas City trailed by a 17-6 score midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the sixth straight time (including the playoffs last season) where Mahomes has successfully rallied his team to victory if the Chiefs were trailing by a double-digit deficit. However, Mahomes has been placed in that situation to where he had to bring his team back from a deficit of at least ten points in four his last five games, including last year’s postseason. Lamar Jackson followed up his team’s 38-6 victory over Cleveland in the opening week of the season by leading the Ravens to a 33-16 victory last week at Houston. Last year’s MVP completed 18 of 24 passes for 204 yards while adding an additional 54 rushing yards. Baltimore has won fourteen straight games in the regular season. The Ravens also possess the best point differential in the NFL as they have outscored their first two opponents by +49 points. Jackson is completing 77.6% of his passes this season. Despite their young careers, this is already Mahomes-Jackson III. These quarterbacks first clashed on December 9th in 2018. Mahomes completed 35 of 53 passes for 377 yards to lead Kansas City to a 27-24 victory in overtime. Jackson accounted for 214 total yards with 67 rushing yards and two touchdown passes in the loss.The rematch took place on September 22nd just over a year ago again in Kansas City where the Chiefs pulled out a 33-28 victory. Mahomes completed 27 of 37 passes for 374 yards with three touchdown passes. Jackson accounted for 313 total yards with 267 of them coming in the air. The third act of this trilogy moves to Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium for the first time. This is also the first opportunity for the Ravens to play the host for Monday Night Football. COVID-19 protocols in Maryland prohibits fans in the stadium so Baltimore will be playing in an empty building for the third straight game. BetAnySports lists the Ravens as a 3.5-point favorite for this showdown with the total set at 54. ESPN broadcasts the game with the kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET.

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What is a Quinella?

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 28, 2020

What is a quinella?Horse racing is a fascinating sport.  Unlike many other sporting leagues like the NFL or the NBA, in this sport, animals play a significant role.  Usually, sports fans connect with the players as they can identify with them as human beings.  With horse racing, it’s quite different.  This makes the race tracks an exciting place where adrenaline rushes through the stands.  You see the horses on the field, waiting for the gate to open.  And the races last only a couple of minutes, so the experience is intense.  Bettors then wait for the official results and payouts, and march to the counter to cash their tickets.There are lots of different betting opportunities for horse racing bettors.  When it comes to the quinella wager, some bettors tend to underestimate this type of wager.  It's not the most difficult bet of them all, so the potential payout is a lot smaller than the more exotic wagers.  But that also means you're not trying to catch lightning in a bottle, and there's a greater chance to succeed.In this betting guide, we'll share all there is to know about the quinella wager:  how you can start placing quinella bets straightaway, and the most effective ways to place these wagers.  After all, we're striving for profits here!  To that end, it's a great idea to join BetAnySports, which is currently our #1-rated race book.  BetAnySports offers 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major tracks, as well as a 9% rebate on losing tickets, so it's a very smart move to create an account. How to make a quinella bet In any horse race, there can be 10 (or more) starting horses.  Each horse has its starting position, which corresponds to its number for that particular race.  The lower its number, the closer a horse is to the rail at the start.  With a quinella wager, you have to predict the horses that will be the top two finishers.  But the horses do not have to finish in an exact order.  All it takes is your two horses to finish among the top two spots at the end of the race.We'll show a quick example to illustrate a quinella bet.  In this example, we'll take six starting horses to keep things easy to understand. Bullish Brother Fantastic Fabio Compassion Star Wins All Bright Kid Kanbeki Molly You are watching the horses from the infield, looking for an edge to bet.  After some proper consideration, you pick Bullish Brother (1) and Wins All (4) as your top two finishers.  That leaves you with two possible outcomes to secure your winning ticket: 1. Bullish Brother 2. Wins All 1. Wins All 2. Bullish Brother As the order of the two horses does not matter, any of these two outcomes will bring you a winning ticket.  To create your quinella ticket, you simply pick two horses, without filling in the order of finish, as that is irrelevant to the quinella wager.What is a quinella box?When betting the quinella, you're taking less risk than with the more exotic wagers that are available for horse racing.  You’re not risking your money with trifectas or superfectas; you’re keeping it safe and sound.  Nevertheless, there are still risks that come along with each wager.  In the above example, there were only six starting horses, which highly increases your chances.  In reality, there are usually at least 10 starting horses, which makes your quinella harder to succeed.  There's a strategy, though, to reduce your risk and increase your chances.  And that’s a quinella box.When you can't decide among three horses, and you feel like taking a less risky route, you can create a quinella box.  That means you add a horse to your ticket and create each possible combination.  Let's take the example above to illustrate how this works.  We still trust Bullish Brother (1) and Wins All (4), but Fantastic Fabio (2) is looking excellent as well.  To cover each bet, we'll create a quinella box that makes your betting slip look like this: Bullish Brother (1) and Wins All (4) Bullish Brother (1) and Fantastic Fabio (2) Wins All (4) and Fantastic Fabio (2) You're wagering on all the possible combinations with your three key horses.  That means your initial stake increases, but your risk reduces simultaneously.  You can create a bigger box with more horses if you'd like.  You could cover each possible combination, but your quinella payout would probably not cover the costs of your wagers.  So we recommend keeping your quinella boxes to a maximum of three horses.What is a quinella wheel?There's another example of quinella wagering:  the quinella wheel strategy.  As you're already taking less risk than with an exotic wager like the trifecta or superfecta, we're playing a safer game here.  You can never fully cover the risk you're taking, but that would take away the fun, wouldn't it?The quinella wheel revolves around trusting a particular horse.  Let's say you think Bullish Brother (1) will take the win, but you're uncertain which horse will end up in second place.  Then you could go for a quinella wheel which covers all possible combinations.  There are two possible strategies when it comes to the quinella wheel.​Full wheelWhen going for a full wheel, you cover each possible combination with your key horse.  In the case of Bullish Brother (1) a full wheel ticket would look like this: 1 - 2 1 - 3 1 - 4 1 - 5 1 - 6 As you can see, each possible combination is covered with Bullish Brother (1) ending in the first position.  You should note each bet itself is a straight quinella wager, so your initial stake goes up with it.Part wheelThe other way to use a quinella wheel is to take a part of the wheel, but not the entire thing.  This requires more handicapping, as you have to determine the horses you trust or don't trust at all.  In other words, if you are confident that Bright Kid (5) won't finish as high as second, then it wouldn’t make sense to add this horse into your wheel.  At the same time, if you are confident with other horses, you could add those to your wheel.  Let's say we take Bullish Brother to win, and Bright Kid to not finish among the top two.  Then, your part wheel would look something like this: 1 - 2 1 - 3 1 - 4 1 - 6 This takes away just one wager and thus reduces your initial stake.  But, now let’s say you're confident of just three horses ending up among the top three -- for example, horses #1, #3 and #6.  Then, your betting slip could look like this: 1 - 3 1 - 6 3 - 6 As you can see here, this is similar to a quinella box just constructed in a different manner. This is one of the safest ways to bet the quinella wager.What is the difference between a quinella and an exacta bet?When you've done a little digging into horse betting, you’ve probably seen the term exacta.  It's a type of wager which has a lot of similarities with the quinella bet, but the risks are a little different.  With an exacta wager, you select two horses to end up in the first two positions, but there's a catch.  You have to predict the correct order of the two horses.Logically, the exacta wager brings along more risk than a quinella bet, but the payout also increases along with it.  To reduce the risk, you could go for an exacta box or an exacta wheel, similar to the quinella bet.  The only difference is the fact that the order of the top two horses has to be exact. How are quinella payouts calculated? When you are familiar with race tracks, you know there's a huge tote board.  This board displays all the money that has been bet at the track on the race (both per horse, and per wager type).  This system is called pari-mutuel wagering.  All the money bet on the race is collected in a prize pool, which is later divided among all the winning tickets.  Therefore, each wager has different odds.Each betting site or race track has its minimum bet.  But a quinella bet is typically made for $2.  Let's draw a scenario where 50,000 bettors each create a quinella ticket with the exact price being $2:50,000 x $2 = $100,000After the race, there are just 50 bettors with a winning ticket.  The total prize pool is $100,000.  The winning tickets share that prize pool, and each bettor takes home $2,000.  In reality, the bookmakers (or the government) always take a piece of the pie, so you won't end up with $2000.  The fees and/or taxes for placing your wager must always be considered, as well. How to use quinella bets in your horse race betting strategy We're not here to tell you what to do.  However, we are here to inform you so you can make the right decision.  There are tons of sites that recommend several strategies, but we like to leave the real choices to the bettors.  It's on you to pick your battles and to do it with a thoughtful and clear mind.  However, we do have a short list of tips that we want to share. Never forget to do your researchIt's essential to read up on the contenders for each race.  If you're not aware of their previous results, or their current form, don't bet.  You can simply wait for better opportunities.  Don't risk hard-earned money by making wagers with a low level of confidence. Know who's losingEach race has a favorite, while some horses are merely filling up the lanes.  Such also-rans don’t stand a chance against the other horses, but they are in the field, anyway.  When creating a quinella box or a quinella wheel, you can leave out the losers to save you some costs.  Why bet on a horse if you're confident it won't finish among the top two? Keep an eye on your moneyWhen you're in the stands, adrenaline and excitement can get to you.  You might place an extra bet here, and double-up with another bet there.  But be careful.  Don't go rogue betting on too many horses, as you have to keep your bankroll healthy.  With each bet, consider your options and always follow the holy rule:  never bet more than you're able to lose.This betting guide discussed quinella betting in a nutshell.  We can draw up hundreds of other scenarios and provide you with a lot more examples, but it's on you to take matters into your own hands.  Find yourself a race book and start wagering.  One great option is BetAnySports, which offers 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major tracks, as well as a 9% rebate on losing tickets.  And another trusted race book is GTBets, which offers a very customer-friendly 15% rebate on monthly losses.  The more you practice, the better you'll get!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA and MLB Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 27, 2020

The third week of the NFL season offers fourteen games on the Sunday schedule. Eight games kick things off at 1 PM ET. The feature game on Fox (36% of the market share) in the first window of games features the Chicago Bears traveling to Atlanta to play the Falcons. The winless Atlanta will be trying to pick themselves off the mat after their epic collapse last week in Dallas. Atlanta went into halftime with a 29-10 lead, and they still held on to a 39-24 lead with under five minutes left in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys then scored on three separate occasions, which included them getting the ball a final time from an improbable watermelon-styled onside kick to steal a 40-39 victory. Chicago is unbeaten so far this season after defeating the New York Giants at home last week by a 17-13 score. BetAnySports lists the Falcons as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 47.CBS has regional coverage for the 1 PM ET slate of games with the Tennessee Titans traveling to Minnesota to play the Vikings appearing in most homes. Tennessee is 2-0 this season after their 33-30 victory at home against Jacksonville last week. Minnesota is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at Indianapolis last Sunday by a 28-11 score. The Titans are 2.5-point road favorites at BetAnySports with and over/under of 50.Another five games are scheduled in the second window of afternoon games. The New York Jets travel to Indianapolis to play the Colts while the Carolina Panthers travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers for the two games with 4:05 PM ET kickoffs. Three more games kickoff at 4:25 PM ET headlined by the Cowboys trip to Seattle to play the Seahawks. Dallas is 1-1 on the season after their miracle comeback victory over the Falcons. Seattle is 2-0 so far this season after they defeated New England at home last Sunday night by a 35-30 score. BetAnySports lists the Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 56.5.Sunday Night Football on NBC features a dream matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks with Aaron Rodgers facing off against Drew Brees in New Orleans. Green Bay is 2-0 this season after they defeated Detroit last Sunday by a 42-21 margin. New Orleans returns home on a short week with a 1-1 record after losing in Las Vegas on Monday to the Raiders by a 34-24 score. The Saints are 3-point favorites at BetAnySports with a total of 53. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET. The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston kept themselves alive in this series on Friday with their 121-108 victory over the Heat. Miami still owns a 3-2 lead in this series and can clinch their spot to face the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. A Celtics victory would force a climactic Game 7 on Tuesday. BetAnySports has Boston as a 3-point favorite with the over/under at 214. ESPN has the broadcast starting at 7:30 PM ET. The final day of the MLB regular season has fifteen games on the card. The lone early game has the Detroit Tigers playing in Kansas City at 1:05 PM ET. The remaining fourteen games all start in the 3:05 PM ET to 3:15 PM ET range with playoff implications at stake. TBS has a national broadcast of the White Sox playing the Cubs at Guaranteed Rate Field in this Chicago rivalry game. The Cubbies send out Reynaldo Lopez with Adbert Alzolay getting the ball for the White Sox. The White Sox are -127 money-line favorites at BetAnySports with a total of 9.5.

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Packers/Saints Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 27, 2020

The Sunday Night Football game on NBC this week features a dream matchup between future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. However, both quarterbacks may be without their favorite target for this game. Green Bay’s Davante Adams is listed as doubtful for this contest with the hamstring injury he incurred last week in their game against the Vikings. His absence did not slow down the Packers who racked up 488 yards of offense in their 42-21 beat down of the Detroit Lions. Adams already has 17 receptions for 192 yards this season with two touchdown passes. Yet the secret weapon for this Green Bay offense may be an offensive line that might be the best unit in Rodgers' career with the Packers. Rodgers has been sacked only once this season. The strength of this offensive line has also helped Matt LeFleur find the balance in the offensive attack that he has sought since being hired as the head coach last season. Green Bay is averaging 34 rushing attempts per game this season, which has produced 208 rushing yards per game with a 6.2 yards-per-carry average. Keeping defenses honest has helped Rodgers complete 67.6% of his passes while averaging 296 passing yards per game. Rodgers has already tossed six touchdown passes without an interception. The Packers have scored 43 and 42 points in their first two games of the season despite trading up in the first round to select Jordan Love at quarterback, who currently is the third-string quarterback. Relax, indeed!New Orleans will be without Michael Thomas, who did not play last week in the Saints' 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas to the Raiders, who were playing their first home game representing Sin City. Brees will miss Thomas for the next few weeks as he recovers from an ankle injury. His 149 receptions last year that accounted for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns are difficult to replace. Brees has been the target of criticism all week as perhaps being a victim of Father Time with diminished arm strength. The analytics folks will point to him having only 116 air yards so far this season, which is below the (dreaded) Kirk Cousins mark entering Week 3. Yet while many of these same analytics experts dismiss the importance of old school statistics like time of possession, perhaps there is some value in recognizing that the Saints had the ball for less than 24 minutes on Monday. Even without Thomas and his 41-year old arm, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 yards per play, which produced 424 yards of offense. The Saints outgained the Raiders by 47 net yards last week, which is typically an indicator of a victory. Autopsies of New Orleans' loss need to account for the 129 yards they gave Las Vegas from  10 penalties, with five of these penalties giving the Raiders a new set of downs. Green Bay is hot, and New Orleans returns home to the Big Easy as an angry football team. The Saints will be allowed a crowd of up to 750 people who are family members of players, coaches, and staff. BetAnySports lists New Orleans as a 3-point favorite with a total of 53. Kickoff is set for 8:20 PM ET.

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What are the Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes Made by Sports Bettors?

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 27, 2020

The excitement of watching sports greatly changed when the United States Supreme Court overturned PASPA and legalized sports betting throughout the country in 2018.  All of a sudden, there became an extra dynamic to the game, and bettors could legally put money on their opinions.  In a blink of an eye, the sports betting industry saw its value increase billions of dollars.  However, with wagering becoming more common, there’s also a whole new slew of bettors walking up to the window.Before you knew it, you had a large group of bettors doing nothing else than flushing their money down the drain.  They didn’t have a well-founded betting strategy, and their bets were based on nothing but a gut feeling.  When analyzing these bettors, you can learn a thing or two.  We spoke to several hundred sports bettors across the globe to categorize their mistakes.  We found out that many people run into the same problems and make the same erros.  Whether you’re a novice bettor or a seasoned pro, you might recognize yourself in these mistakes. Let's be honest, you're never too old to learn, right?In this betting guide, we'll take you through the most common mistakes in sports betting.  That means we'll zoom in on the most common sports that people bet on, like the NFL, NBA, MLB, and the NHL.  Besides that, we'll dive into sportsbooks, bookmakers, money management, and many other aspects to get you on your way to a successful sports betting career. The most common mistakes by novice sports bettors When you're just starting as a rookie bettor, you're bound to make mistakes.  There's not a single person who has a clean track record.  However, if you want to take sports betting seriously, and not just as something done for entertainment purposes, then carefully review this guide to avoid the biggest mistakes most sports bettors make. Betting too many games One rookie mistake is going in and just betting any moneyline, point spread, parlay or teaser out there, regardless of whether or not the bet offers value.  You'll sign up with your offshore book and start to place bets here and there.  Before you know it, you're on a losing streak, and you feel dreadful.  In short, you're not betting for the long haul, and you're only focused on having action.  It's an illusion to think that you can win every single bet -- especially when your wagers don’t have value.You should understand that professional bettors don't bet on games without an edge.  They pick their battles carefully and don’t put money down on a game just because it’s on television.  They're not chasing winning bets by the bushes.  Instead, they’re focused on value and numbers.  So, keep a close eye on what kind of bets you're making.  Don't bet to have action.  Instead, bet smartly.  Always ask yourself if you have an edge on the game, or if you're just betting for another payout. Bad bankroll management It doesn't matter how much experience you have, it’s always critical to manage your bankroll.  The worst thing you could do is deposit new funds straightaway when you're on a losing streak, and double up on your bets.  Of course, to be successful at sports betting, you need a plan, and the discipline to stick to it.  You need to set some boundaries for yourself, and create some rules to keep yourself in control.  The holy rule here is:  never risk more than you're comfortable losing.Think about setting cap limits:  First, establish your gambling bankroll.  Then, consider whether you want to have a maximum amount you'll wager on any day.  Then pick your unit size:  the amount of money representing your standard wager.  Usually, this is a percentage of your bankroll (generally about 1% to 3%).  After creating a plan, you’ll have much more self-control and a greater ability to stick to your system.  All of us can well understand being under the influence of adrenaline after a couple of winning bets.  Everyone has felt the urge to wager a bit more than usual.  And everyone has experienced losing when they’ve done so (and felt stupid).  However, when you stick to your money management system, you’ll have your winning days and losing days for sure, but you’ll never be out of control or feel stupid. Parlays There's one type of wager which brings the most rookie sports bettors into the industry:  the parlay bet.  Everyone has read stories of a lucky bettor who managed to hit a multi-legged parlay bet to turn a $25 stake into a payout of $62,525.  All the bettor had to do was correctly predict 12 games.  It's catching lightning in a bottle, for sure.  But just the fact that it's possible will convince enough people to try their luck.  On any given day, millions of dollars flow through online sportsbooks through parlay bets.  Of these bets, only a minority will end up with a winning bet and take home a payout.We're all fortune seekers in some way or another, but don't let greed get the better of you.  You're usually better off making straight bets than parlay bets.  Especially in the long haul, you'll always be better off betting straight bets since a bookmaker’s hold is much less.  After some analysis, some Las Vegas sportsbooks’ hold on certain parlays was up to 30% compared to just 5% on straight bets.  That shows the risk of losing a parlay bet outweighs the reward. The most common mistakes by experienced sports bettors You should not forget that anyone makes mistakes.  Let us repeat that phrase.  Everyone makes mistakes, even experienced bettors.  One thing to understand is that sports handicapping always evolves, so there's always new stuff to learn (and always new mistakes to be made).  We've found two mistakes that are still very common among experienced bettors today.  When you master these mistakes, the sky is the limit. Setting unrealistic expectations When you're in the sports industry, you know that adrenaline plays a giant part of the game.  Besides that, the betting industry involves money.  When you're a professional, this usually involves a whole lot of money.  That means adrenaline and the rush of seeing money in front of your eyes collide into an exclusive feeling that's sometimes uncontrollable. Any sports bettor who has been winning bets for an extended period of time knows that feeling.  It takes over, and it brings you into a different state of mind.  You feel like the king of the world, and you feel that there's not a single bet that you can lose.That's when you should exercise caution.  Just because you’ve won 36 of 48 bets doesn’t mean your hot streak will continue.  Experienced gamblers should understand this, and have realistic expectations.  But sometimes they forget, and either put too much money on a game or lower their standards, and make wagers that don’t offer great value.  Thus, we recommend to always stick to your plan.  We assume you devised your betting strategy carefully, especially when you're a professional.  So, stick to the plan even when your feeling says otherwise! Picking the wrong sportsbooks The importance of picking the right sportsbooks is massively underestimated.  Sports bettors pay a fee to bookies to use their services, which means their win percentage needs to be higher than 50%.  But just because all bookmakers charge a fee doesn’t mean they charge an equal fee.  Indeed, some sportsbooks -- like our #7-rated sportsbook WagerWeb -- give cash back on volume.  The effect of WagerWeb's cash back offer is that their customers are laying -108 rather than -110.  So, instead of needing 52.38 percent to break even at football, a sports bettor only needs to hit 51.9% to break even at WagerWeb.  And it gets even better at our #1-rated Sportsbook, BetAnySports, which gives its customers -105 odds, rather than -110, so the breakeven point gets lowered to 51.19%.  This bookmaking fee is where the real value is and where the differences between bookmakers become evident.  Another important factor is whether your sportsbook has unique numbers.  Now, if you only have one sportsbook, this wouldn’t matter.  Of course, as any serious sports gambler knows, you need to have three to five sportsbooks to shop for the best numbers.  But it doesn’t do you much good to have three sportsbooks if those three always have the same numbers on the NFL games!  The key is to choose sportsbooks with unique numbers.  That is, sportsbooks that originate their own odds, and don’t just copy the numbers of other sportsbooks.  Our top five sportsbooks all have unique numbers.  Those are BetAnySports, BetNow, Bovada, BetOnline and BookMaker.  When you’re choosing your sportsbooks, these are the best of the best.  As you can see, the sportsbook plays a very important role in being successful as a bettor.  It might not matter for just one bet, but it's very important to always have access to the best odds in the long run.When you're considering which sportsbook to join, you might get a bit overwhelmed.  To help you with your choice, we have researched more than 60 online sportsbooks and have written reviews on the upper tier.  Here are a few factors that we use to judge whether a sportsbook is top-shelf: User experience Bonuses and promotions Banking methods Availability of games However, the most important factor of all, as discussed above, are the competitive odds and the unique numbers.  Especially when making point spread bets, you want to have access to the best lines.  When you register at multiple sportsbooks, you can always shop around and place your bet with the book which brings the best returns.  In the end, these small differences in lines are what matter, and distinguish the real bettors from the rookies. Having too much pride Anyone who has made a substantial amount of money in his profession feels enormous pride in some way.  You are confident because you know that you probably have more knowledge about your profession than many others, and you're better at it.  It's probably true, but it also doesn't mean that you should succumb to it.  Unfortunately, successful bettors often fall prey to this when they’re on a losing streak.  Sometimes, the best thing to do is to step back, and take stock of why you’ve hit a rough patch.  But experienced gamblers who have had a lot of success often try to repeat what they’ve always done, instead of recognizing that maybe things have changed.  The worst thing you could do is continue on the same path. Instead, you have to make adjustments to turn a losing streak into a winning streak.To conclude this article, we want to wish you all the best in your sports betting career.  Whether you have just started or have been around for multiple years, have fun while you're at it.  The sports betting industry is an exciting playing field that can generate a lot of cash for you, but you have to approach it the right way.  Besides this article, we have other great info about any topic related to sports betting!  Enjoy yourself and, as we always say, happy betting!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, MLB and NHL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 26, 2020

A very crowded card is on tap for Saturday featuring College Football, the NBA and NHL playoffs, and the penultimate day of the MLB season. 26 games between FBS opponents are on the College Football card. Seven games kick off the day at Noon ET highlighted by Kansas State at Oklahoma along with Florida at Mississippi. Fox has that Big 12 matchup with the Sooners a 28-point favorite with the over/under set at 60.5 (all listed lines are provided by BookMaker). ESPN has that debut of SEC action this season with the Gators a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 58. ABC will broadcast Central Florida’s game at East Carolina at Noon with the Knights 28-point favorites with the total at 78.Another five games are set for 3:30 PM ET. ABC has Oklahoma State hosting West Virginia with the Cowboys a 7-point favorite with the total set at 50.5. Fox will televise Texas playing at Texas Tech with the Longhorns 17.5-point road favorites with the over/under set at 72. The ESPN game during this window of games has Cincinnati hosting Army with the Bearcats 12-point favorites with a total of 45. The defending national champions begin their season at home hosting Mississippi State on CBS. LSU is a 16.5-point favorite with the total set at 56.5.The evening slate features seven games. Alabama begins their season at 7 PM ET with their trip to Missouri to play the Tigers. The Crimson Tide are 28.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 56.5 with the game being televised on ESPN. ABC has the rivalry game between Florida State playing at Miami with the Hurricanes a 10.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 53.5. ESPN broadcasts the final game on the Saturday football card at 10:15 PM ET with Troy’s trip to BYU. The Cougars are 14.5-point favorite with the over/under at 59.5.The Los Angeles Lakers have the opportunity to clinch a spot in the NBA Finals Saturday night. They defeated Denver on Thursday by a 114-108 score to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. This is the third straight series with the Nuggets facing a 3-1 deficit going into the fifth game of the series. The Lakers are 5-point favorites with the total set at 213.5. TNT has the broadcast starting at 9 PM ET.Game 5 of the Stanley Cup playoffs takes place Saturday night with Tampa Bay having the opportunity to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup. The Lightning defeated Dallas by a 5-4 score in overtime on Friday to take a 3-1 lead in the NHL Finals. NBC has the telecast starting at 8 PM ET. The final Saturday of the MLB regular season has seventeen games on the schedule with Oakland/Seattle and the New York Mets/Washington playing seven-inning doubleheaders. The prime time game on Fox features the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at 7:07 PM ET. Brandon Woodruff takes the hill for the Brewers while the Cardinals give the ball to Adam Wainwright. Milwaukee are -115 money-line favorites with the total set at 7.5. 

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NCAA Football: Florida State/Miami Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 26, 2020

Florida State and Miami (FL) continue their annual rival as the prime-time game for Saturday night on ABC. The broadcast starts at 7:30 PM ET.Miami (FL) is off to an impressive 2-0 start this season after they defeated Louisville on the road last Saturday by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz appears to have solved the team’s problems on offense over the last few seasons with two inspired additions to the program. He started the transformation with his offense by poaching Rhett Lashlee away from SMU in the offseason to become the new offensive coordinator and install his version of an up-tempo spread offense. Diaz then convinced D’Eriq King to transfer from Houston to South Beach to be the Hurricanes starting quarterback. King completed 18 of 30 passes last week for 325 yards with three touchdowns against the Cardinals defense to lead Miami to the victory. King is also dangerous with his legs as he rushed for 85 yards in the Hurricanes opening 31-14 win over UAB. His mobility has helped to make an offensive line that allowed 51 sacks last season to appear improved. Miami has had their quarterback sacked only three times so far this season. The Hurricanes’ defense is, once again, loaded with playmakers. A couple of transfers in defensive end Quincy Roche, a grad transfer from Temple, and Jaelan Phillips, who came over from UCLA two seasons ago, lead the defensive front. Miami already has 18 tackles for loss in their first two games. Yet the Hurricanes needed three takeaways last week to overcome the 516 yards of offense that Louisville generated. The Cardinals had success in both their rushing and passing attacks as they gained 209 yards on the ground along with 325 yards in the air. Florida State has had an extra week to prepare for this game after getting upset at Georgia Tech two weeks ago by a 16-13 score despite being a 13-point favorite. Things started well in the first game of the new era of head coach Mike Norvell as the Seminoles scored 10 points on their first two drives. But Florida State then saw three of their subsequent drives stopped from two fumbles from quarterback James Blackman and one interception by Blackman. The Seminoles also failed to convert two 4th down opportunities, which resulted in them scoring just three more points the rest of the game. The Seminoles face the additional challenge of playing this game without Norvell on the sidelines after he tested positive for COVID-19. Norvell has coached the team to prepare for this showdown but will not make the trip to Miami. Norvell is considered an offensive guru who called all his plays as the head coach Memphis. It will be offensive coordinator Kenny Gillingham who will call the plays for this game. Gillingham was Norvell’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach with the Tigers from 2017-2018 before he took the offensive coordinator job at Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will serve as the head coach on the sidelines for Norvell. Thomsen was the head coach at Abilene Christian for 2005 through 2011.These proud programs have something to prove after both settled for 6-7 campaigns that ended with losses in their bowl game last year. Miami has won the last three meetings between these in-state rivals after upsetting the Seminoles in Tallahassee on November 2nd by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. BetOnline has Miami as an 11-point favorite for this contest with the over/under set at 53.5.

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How to Bet on Horses

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 26, 2020

Bettors these days might not be able to imagine that casinos, lotteries, and regular sports betting was illegal back in the day.  There were no bookmakers to collect your moneyline bets, your point spread bets, or take your money at a poker game.  There was nothing of all that.  The only legal form of betting was horse betting.  The race tracks were the place where the magic happened -- where the professional bettors separated themselves from the amateurs.Horse racing, itself, is one of the oldest sports in the world.  Back in ancient times, the Romans and the Greeks had their fair share of horse racing when they were not too occupied with the gladiator fights.  When we leap forward to the 1600s, horse betting had arrived.  Under the reign of King James I, gamblers in the United Kingdom could begin wagering on the final placement of their favorite horse.  Today, horse betting is widespread across the planet.  And there are tons of different types of horse racing bets that go a lot further than just predicting which horse wins.In this betting guide, we'll take you through the ins-and-outs of horse racing.  We'll teach you all about the different types of bets you can place on a horse race, the way you can calculate your earnings, and some practical tips that will start you off the right way!  Also, if you’re in need of a place to wager, then consider BetAnySports, which is our top-rated race book.  BetAnySports offers 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major tracks, as well as a 9% rebate on losing tickets (not to mention reduced juice (-105 odds) on football and basketball games), so join today. What are the most common bet types in horse betting? Whereas the first horse races had few bet types for bettors, nowadays there's a massive variety in wagers you can place.  You can take as much risk as you like, wagering on a single horse to finish in the top-three or betting on multiple horses in consecutive races.  We should make the distinction between straight wagers and exotic wagers.  With a straight wager, you only bet on one single horse in a single race; with exotic wagers, you can bet on multiple horses (whether in single or multiple races).Straight wagersThe straight bets are the most common, as they are the easiest to digest.  These bets are perfect for beginners in the horse betting industry, or people who simply wish to try their luck at the horse tracks for entertainment purposes.WinThe simplest (and first) bet type of them all - the win bet.  You have a winning ticket if you manage to predict which horse finishes in first place.  Usually, the payout for a win bet can be pretty impressive since the chance of picking the winning horse can be relatively small.PlaceThe place bet is a little different, but quite similar to the win bet.  You pick a horse that will end up in either first place or second place.  So, it does not matter at which exact position the horse finishes, so long as it's in the top two.  It's less risky than the win bet, but your payout is less as well.ShowThe least risky straight wager you can place is the show bet.  You're betting that your horse will finish in first place, second place, or third place.  The show payout is substantially lower than either a win or place bet since your risk is accordingly much less.Across the boardThe win, place, and show bets are the only straight wagers.  If you don't feel like choosing among the three, you could go for an across the board bet.  This means you are wagering on your horse to win, place, and show.  If your horse manages to win the entire race, you have three winnings bets.  But if your horse comes in third place, you only have one winning bet with a smaller payout.  This type of bet is not very popular since it's harder to realize a profit with this bet type.A variation on this bet is leaving out either the win bet or the show bet. That leaves you with two bets instead of three and thus increases your chance to walk away with profits after taking away your initial stake.Exotic WagersWhen you feel like spicing things up, it's time to look at the exotic bets.  These are the bets you place on multiple horses in a single bet, or multiple horses in consecutive races.  These are bet types that are not meant for novice bettors since they can get complicated (and expensive), depending on the structure.  They require actual skill in handicapping horses -- much more than straight wagers.  However, if you are comfortable with exotic bets, you could realize substantial profits.ExactaWith the exacta bet, you're not just picking one horse to finish at the top; you're betting on two horses.  You have a winning ticket if you successfully predict the horses that come in first place and second place.  Also, it's required here that you predict the correct order of both finishers.  The exacta bet is popular among horse racing handicappers since the payout can be very lucrative.QuinellaAs a variation on the exacta bet, with the quinella wager, you're betting on two horses to finish in first and second position, in any order. So, while the exacta bet requires you to predict the top two finishers in the exact order, the quinella bet allows any order.  Understandably, the payout for a quinella is lower than an exacta.TrifectaWhen we take it up a notch, we come to the trifecta bet.  You pick three horses that will finish in the top three positions, in the exact order.  That means you only win if you manage to successfully predict which horse ends in first place, which one in second place, and which in third place.  It's a difficult bet and requires some serious handicapping skills, but the large payouts often seduce gamblers.SuperfectaThe hardest exotic bet you can place is the superfecta.  It's one of those bets a gambler makes who is either really confident or has no confidence at all.  Because it’s a bet where people often simply try their luck, the minimum bet usually is very low.  With a superfecta, you're betting on the top four finishers.  That means you only win if you successfully predict the horses that finish in first, second, third, and fourth place in the exact order.Other bet types in horse racingAs you can see, the straight wagers and exotic wagers offer a great variety of bets.  Usually, these are enough for most bettors.  But for some, there's never enough.  Please note that we do not recommend these types of exotic wagers since the risk is incredibly high.  Of course, your payout can be enormous since the chance of success is minimal.Daily doubleWith a daily double, you predict the winning horse of two consecutive races.  Usually, the two consecutive races are either the first two races of the day or the last two races -- early double and late double.  And if you hit the two back-to-back races, you’re in for a nice payout.Pick 3 / Pick 6Those who really want to take a long shot can always take things to the extreme.  With a pick 3, you choose the winning horse in three consecutive races; with a pick 4, in four consecutive races, and so on.  The payout is often extraordinary, but history instructs that there are very few bettors who can be successful at these high-risk bets. How to calculate your payout in horse racing Let's talk about money.  In regular sports betting, there's a system where the bookmaker comes up with certain odds for each game.  With horse racing, there's a different system:  the pari-mutuel system.  Instead of betting against the house, bettors are betting against each other.  The house handles all the bets and collects them in prize pools.  Each race has its prize pools for the available bets.  There can be a win prize pool, a quinella prize pool, and an exacta prize pool.  After the race finishes, all the winning bettors share what's left of the prize pool.  A short example to illustrate:Let's say we're at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby.  A total of 100,000 bettors place a $2 wager on one of the 18 horses in the field to win (for $200,000 in the win prize pool).  Of those 100,000 wagers, 1,000 tickets were on the #4 horse for exactly $2, the minimum bet. Horse #4 crosses the finish line first such that 1,000 bettors end up with a winning ticket.  That would create the following formula: 100,000 x $2 = $200,000 $200,000 / 1,000 = $200 Horse number #4 was a longshot in the race.  Each bettor who picked #4 can collect $200 from the prize pool.  Now, bear in mind that the track always takes a portion of the prize pool to cover operational costs and government taxes so that the actual reward will be a little lower than $200.  However, this is the way pari-mutuel odds work. How to win at horse racing You might be thinking:  "Sure, thanks for sharing all this information about these types of horse racing bets, but how do I win?"  Let's remove any illusions straightaway -- there's not one single method.  It takes years of practice and research before you might develop your own winning strategy.  Nevertheless, we can give you some tips to get you started the right way.Reduce your risksWhen you're gambling, it's inevitable that you will take a risk.  Part of the fun of wagering is risking your stake.  But, if you want to create a sustainable strategy, it's good to also have a plan.  With horse racing, two of the most effective ways to hedge your bet is by creating a box bet or a wheel bet.  To take an exacta box as an example, if you believe horse #4 will win, and #5 will come in second, then your exacta ticket looks like this:4 - 5With an exacta box, you win with either of the two possible combinations of your two key horses, so your ticket will look like this: 4 - 5 5 - 4 Either way, you end up with a winning ticket.  It's very similar to a quinella wager.  The other possibility is setting up a so-called wheel.  When we take the same example as above, where we strongly believe horse #4 will be the winning horse, we can set up our wheel. We now consider each possible combination to cover the exacta. Your ticket looks like this: 4 - 1 4 - 2 4 - 3 4 - 5 4 - 6 As you can see, you're now placing five straight wagers. Your chance of success increases, but so does your initial stake.Act rationallyWe can't stress enough the importance of using staying in control.  Don't let emotions get the better of you.  When you're at the race track, adrenaline and excitement overtake rational thought.  But make sure you always stick to your plan.  That means doing proper research and managing your bankroll.  Never bet more than you're comfortable losing.  When it comes to research, use the following checklist when analyzing a horse: How were its past performances on this type of surface? What is the class level of the horse, and those of the competitors? What is the past performance of the jockey on top of the horse? What do the odds tell you? What are the official ratings of your horse? Have a look at the horse in the paddock -- does its form in real life correspond with the statistics? There's a ton more to look at, but this is a good start!Pick the right place to betThere are hundreds of racecourses throughout the world.  In the United States alone, there are over 100 tracks that host either thoroughbred or harness racing.  We know that it's impossible to visit all these places yourself.  But the beauty of the modern age is that we can wager at online sportsbooks on horse races in Hong Kong, Australia, and all across the United States.  When choosing a sportsbook, don’t necessarily join the first one you encounter.  There's enough to choose from, so make sure they offer you a proper reward for your business!  A great choice is BetAnySports -- our #1-rated sportsbook -- which offers 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major tracks, as well as a 9% rebate on losing tickets.  And MyBookie and GTBets aren’t far behind.  MyBookie offers an 8% rebate on losing horse race tickets, while GTBets’ racebook goes even further, with a very customer-friendly 15% rebate on monthly losses.That's all there is to know about the basics of horse betting.  When you follow this betting guide, you'll be able to start placing your first bets on any type of horse race.  Have fun out there, and especially enjoy cashing in these exotic wagers!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and NCAAF Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 25, 2020

All four major sports have games on the Friday card headlined by the NBA and NHL playoffs.The NBA playoffs feature Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami took a 3-1 lead in this series on Wednesday when they upset Boston by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Celtics remain favored for this game despite being on the brink of elimination. BetAnySports lists Boston as a 3-point favorite with a total of 213. After four games, both of these teams have scored 441 points apiece. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat while also shooting better from 3-point land. The reason why Miami has put themselves in a position to win this series is that they are creating more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game in this series while the Heat are turning the ball over just 11.3 times per game. This disparity has helped Miami average six more shot attempts per game than Boston. Game time is set for 8:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Stanley Cup Finals continues with Game 4 of the Tampa Bay/Dallas series. The Lightning took a 2-1 lead on Wednesday with their 5-2 victory over the Stars. Steven Stamkos took the ice to play in his first game since February 26th with his presence seeming to inspire his Tampa Bay teammates. Yet Stamkos did not take a shift in the final 46 minutes of Wednesday’s game so he might not play tonight with the lower-body injury that has kept him out for seven months. BetAnySports has the Lightning as a -160 money-line favorite with the over/under set at 5. The puck drops shortly after 8 PM ET on NBC.The first college football game played on a Friday night this season features two teams that appear to be moving in opposite directions in a Conference USA clash that was not on the original schedule for these teams a week ago at this time.The University of Texas-San Antonio is off to a dream start in the first year of head coach Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners outlasted Texas State on the road in their opening game of the season to pull out a 51-48 victory in overtime on September 12th. UTSA returned home last Saturday to host an FCS opponent in Stephen F. Austin, who they defeated by a 24-10 score as a 17-point favorite. Middle Tennessee opened the season with an embarrassing 42-0 loss at Army on September 5th, and they were not able to make many adjustments two weeks later with Troy then throttling them by a 47-14 score despite being just a 1.5-point underdog.  UTSA was, originally, scheduled to host Memphis on Saturday, but the Tigers’ COVID outbreak caused them to cancel their game with Houston just last Saturday. These two football programs agreed to this play game six days ago. Middle Tennessee had previously scheduled a trip to conference rival Old Dominion, but that game was canceled last month when the Monarchs opted out of football the season. BetAnySports lists UTSA as a 7-point favorite with a total set at 60. The CBS Sports Network picked up the broadcast this week to replace the Roadrunners clash with the Tigers. Kickoff is set for 8 PM ET.The final weekend of the MLB regular season commences today with eighteen games on the card including seven-inning doubleheaders between St. Louis/Milwaukee, Colorado/Arizona, and San Francisco/San Diego. The Cardinals and Brewers begin today’s slate of games at 5:15 PM ET.ESPN2 features the Windy City rivalry between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Cubs with Dylan Cease making the start for the White Sox. BetAnySports has the Cubs as a -160 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM ET.

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Ness Notes: Friday, Sep 25

by Larry Ness

Friday, Sep 25, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." NFL Week 3 kicked off Thursday night, as the Dolphins easily handled the Jags 31-13 in Jacksonville. Who says Ryan Fitzpatrick is no more than a journeyman? The 37-year-old accounted for three TDs ( two passing / one rushing). He became the first NFL quarterback to notch six wins over the same opponent with SIX different teams. The blowout also gave Miami its first double-digit victory in 39 games, ending the longest drought in the league. NFL home teams have gone 19-13 SU but just 16-15-1 ATS the first two weeks, including home dogs going 3-8 SU but 6-4-1 ATS. Eleven of the 16 Week 2 games went over (average final score was 53.3 PPG), as overs lead unders 20-12 (62.5%).Week 3 features two games between 2-0 teams. The Rams at the Bills (Buff is -2.5) plus on MNF, the 2-0 Ravens host the 2-0 Chiefs. Baltimore is favored by 3.5, as the two teams expected to meet in last season's AFC championship game square off. Think anyone will be watching? The only game between 0-2 teams is the Bengals at the Eagles (Philly is -4.5). There are three games featuring a 2-0 team vs an 0-2 one. The 2-0 Titans are at 0-2 Vikings (Tenn is -2.5), the 2-0 Steelers host the 0-2 Texans (Pitt is -4) and the 2-0 Cardinals host the 0-2 Lions ( Arz is -5.5). SNF has a good one in 2-0 Green Bay at 1-1 New Orleans, Rodgers vs Brees (Saints are -3).The Lakers beat the Nuggets 114-108 last night to take a 3-1 lead in the western conference finals A.D. had 34 points, LBJ 26-9-8 and Dwight Howard got his first start of the postseason, adding 12 & 11. The Nuggets shot 50.6% as a team but it wasn't enough. Does Denver have LA right where it wants? The Nuggets have already overcome two, 3-1 deficits this postseason. Game 5 is Saturday (early line is LA -6). Game 5 of the East is set for tonight, with Miami leading 3-1. Miami can become the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. Boston is in the East Finals for the third time in four years but hasn't advanced to the NBA Finals since 2010. Boston last won an NBA title in 2008 and before that, its last title was back in 1986, the last of Bird's three NBA championships. Each team has scored exactly 441 points but that's NOT indicative, as the Heat have been the better team (Miami is 11-2 SU & ATS this postseason). However, Boston is favored by three points in Game 5.of a one-sided series.  Playoff numbers to-date: Favorites are just 37-35-2 ATS , while the under has cashed in 44 of the 74 games (59.5 percent). For those following the "Zig-Zag" Theory (that means playing "on" the SU loser of the previous game), they've gone 26-31-2 ATS (45.6%) or minus-.8.1 net units (last night's game was graded as a 'push').MLB enters its final weekend. The Blue Jays clinched a playoff spot in the AL with their 4-1 win last night over the Yankees. Yes, the Cardinals and Marlins dealt with major COVID outbreaks but let's NOT forget the Blue Jays were denied the ability to play in Toronto by the Canadian government, so they instead played their home games at their Triple-A stadium in Buffalo, NY. The team was forced to open the season with 13 games straight on the road. Kudos to the franchise that won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. The Astros can wrap up the final playoff spot in the American League on Friday with a win over the Rangers OR an Angels loss to the Dodgers. Speaking of the Marlins and the Cards. Miami can clinch second place in the NL East and the playoff spot that goes with it Friday with a win over the Yankees AND a Phillies loss to the Rays. The Cards currently hold down second place in the NL Central but they Cards enter Friday to either earn the second-place spot in the division, grab one of the NL's two wild cards or miss the postseason entirely. Note: St Louis could be forced into a make-up doubleheader with Detroit on Monday.Next Ness Notes on Monday by 1:00 ET.Good luck...Larry

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Early MLB Playoffs Preview

by Ben Burns

Friday, Sep 25, 2020

by Ben BurnsThe year of 2020 has reminded us that anything is possible. In the NBA,the fifth seeded Miami Heat took down #1 Milwaukee and are now one win away from advancing to the Finals. In the NHL, the Dallas Stars upset favored Colorado (and Vegas) to advance to the Finals. Should we also expect an unlikely entry in this year's World Series?With the short season and the new playoff format, I'd say it's entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that we'll have an "unexpected" team playing for the title. The Dodgers are favored and for good reason. They're stacked. Anything can happen in a series though and they're certainly not a sure thing to represent the National League. They could face a tough Reds team in the first round. The Padres and Braves are both playing well. Atlanta recently learned that it will get Fried back for the playoffs. The Cubs can't be counted out, particularly if they draw over-achieving Miami in the first round. The Yankees may be favored in the American League but they won't have an easy road ahead of them. Indeed, the AL is wide open. with any team capable of stepping up. Tampa, Oakland and Minnesota are currently the top three seeds but the White Sox and Indians are also tough. Even Toronto, though young, is capable of getting hot at the right time. At this time, with the brackets not quite finalized, I'm willing to make only one prediction. Like everything else in 2020, the playoffs promise to at least be "interesting." Once the matchups are set, I'll report back with some further thoughts. Until then, enjoy the final few days of the regular season.  

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