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Ness Notes: NBA's Second Season

by Larry Ness

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

After a second consecutive year of a 'Play-In' round, the NBA's 16-team field opened the 2022 postseason back on April 16th.This year's field was missing five playoff teams from the previous postseason. The NY Knicks were a No. 4 seed in the East last season (ending a seven-year playoff drought) but were never really a playoff contender this season. Washington was able to garner a No. 8 seed last year despite a 34-38 record but the Wizards' 35-47 record this year left them EIGHT games 'south' of the final 'Play-In' spot. Toronto saw its run of seven consecutive postseason appearances end last year (Raptors won the NBA title in 2019) but earned a No. 5 seed with a 48-34 record. Chicago ended a four-year playoff drought this season with a 46-36 record, earning the East's No. 6 seed.Over in the West, the LA Clippers failed to make it out of the 'Play-In' round, ending a run of having played in NINE of the previous 10 postseasons. Portland, which had made the last EIGHT postseasons, finished 27-55, SEVEN games shy of the last 'Play-In' seed (No. 10). The most notable absence from this year's playoff field were the Lakers (the 2020 champs), whose 33-49 record left them one game behind the Spurs (No. 10 seed). Taking those three open spots were the Warriors, T-wolves and Pelicans. Golden St had been to FIVE straight NBA finals (2015-19) but after a nightmare 2019-20 season, didn't make it out of the 'Play-In' round last season. The Warriors challenged the Suns for the West's record early on but ended 53-29, giving them the No. 3 seed. 46-36 Minnesota finished with the No. 7 but earned its way into the playoff field by beating the No. 8 Clippers. It marked just Minnesota's second playoff berth over the previous 17 years (the other came in 2018). The West's final playoff spot went to New Orleans, which played the entire season without 'King' Zion. The Pels were just 36-46 in the regular season but won a home game over the Spurs and then won at the Clippers, to snag the West's No. 8 seed.It's important to note at this time of year that the NBA playoffs do not typically serve up “unlikely” champs. After all, the NBA consists of 30 teams but just 16 have won championships since the 1976-77 merger. Only EIGHT teams have won multiple titles, with the Lakers leading the way with 11. The Lakers are followed by the Bulls (six), Spurs (five), Celtics (four), Warriors, (three), Heat (three), Pistons (three) and Rockets (two). Taking a closer look, let me return to the start of the 1979-80 season, when Bird and Magic entered the NBA, rejuvenating what was a 'dying' league. Here's what a check of the history books tells us. Of the 42 championship teams since that 1979-80 season, 19 have been teams which finished the regular season with the best regular season record (or tied for the best record). Ten champs have been teams which finished with its second-best mark and seven others with its third-best record. That said, the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks were the East's No. 3 seed and at 46-26, owned just the NBA's 7th-best record.The NBA expanded its playoff field to 16 teams for the 1983-84 season but first round series were best-of-five with all remaining series being the best-of-seven. The first round was extended to a best-of-seven series for the 2002-03 season (and has remained in place) with the change arguably benefitting the higher seeded teams by reducing the likelihood of an upset by a lower seed. The lowest seed to reach the NBA Finals was the No. 8 NY Knicks in the 50-game strike season of 1998-99, who would lose 4-1 to the Spurs (the first of Pop's five championship teams). The lowest seed to win an NBA title was the No. 6 Houston Rockets (West) in the 1994-95 season. Houston had won the NBA title the year before, but the team's second consecutive title was an unforgettable one. The Rockets finished that season 47-35, tied for the NBA's 10th-best record. However, Houston won all FOUR series without the home court edge and its 'victims' that postseason had a combined record of 238-90 (.726) during the regular season. No championship team, before or since, has beaten a more impressive group of challengers on its way to an NBA title.First Round recap: The higher seed won all EIGHT of the first round series. There was just one 4-0 sweep (Boston over Brooklyn), three series went five games and four more went six games. Boston's sweep of Brooklyn was notable, as the Nets were preseason favorites to win the East. Throw in the fact that the Lakers were preseason favorites in the West and didn't even make the playoffs, the league's two preseason favorites did not win a SINGLE postseason game. Three of the four six-game series came in the West. Philly went up 3-0 on Toronto but didn't close out the Raptors until Game 6 in Toronto. How about this factoid? Philadelphia / Toronto was the first Eastern Conference first-round series to go beyond five games in four years! Golden St used a 'small ball" lineup to eliminate Denver in five games, but the other three Western Conference series went six games. The 68-14 Suns were the NBA's best team (EIGHT games better than Memphis) but lost leading scorer Devin Booker in Game 2 of their series with the eight-seeded Pelicans. The Pelicans opened the season 1-12 and finished 36-46 (28 games worse than Phoenix) but found themselves tied at two-all after a game 4 win. The Suns won Games 5 and 6 with Chris Paul playing a "game for the ages" in Game 6, scoring 33 points on 14 of 14 FG shooting. It's the most made field goals without a miss in NBA playoff history. Memphis owned the NBA's second-best overall record and its best ATS mark (52-29-1) but not only needed six games to eliminate 7th-seeded Minnesota (playing in just its second postseason since 2014), but also needed dramatic 4th-quarter comebacks to do so. The Grizzlies are the first team in NBA history to have multiple wins in a single playoff series in which they trailed by double-digits entering the fourth quarter. Memphis overcame double-digit deficits to win Games 3, 5 and 6. The third Western Conference series to go six games was No. 4 Dallas over No. 5 Utah. The series win is the first for superstar Luka Doncic (Mavs had lost in the first round in each of the previous two years) but I'd be remiss to not give a shout out to Jalen Brunson. The four-year vet from Villanova owns a career regular season line of 11.9-3.0-3.7 but averaged 27.8-4.8-4.2 against Utah. Brunson scored 20-plus points in all six games, despite NEVER having had 20-plus points in more than TWO straight regular-season games. Want more? He averaged 38 minutes per game and committed just FOUR turnovers. Just the facts (numbers). There were 43 games in Round 1, with home teams going 25-18 (.581) but just 19-24 ATS (44.2%). Over/Under players have seen 27 of the 43 games stay "under the closing number," for a win percentage of 62.8%. Those following the "Zig-Zag" Theory are again finding that it has long ago become a useful (winning) tool. The ATS record is 16-19 or minus-4.6 net games. The second round begins Sunday and, in the East, Miami (Butler), Milwaukee (Middleton) and Philadelphia (Embiid) are all dealing with key injuries. Meanwhile, Boston is healthy and since sitting at 25-25 back on the morning of January 29th, has won 30 of its last 36 games! Over in the West, Booker was back for the Suns in their Game 6 series-clinching win against the Pelicans plus Memphis, Golden St and Dallas have no serious injury issues.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

The Saturday sports card features MLB and EPL action.The Major League Baseball schedule has 15 games. St. Louis hosts Arizona at 2:15 PM ET. The Cardinals send Miles Mikolas to the mound to pitch against Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a -160 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Toronto plays at home against Houston at 3:07 PM ET. Jose Berrios is the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays against the Astros’ Luis Garcia. Toronto is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. San Francisco is at home against Washington. The Giants pitch Logan Webb against Joan Adon of the Nationals. San Francisco is a -250 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in the opening game of a doubleheader on FS1. The White Sox won their second game in their last three with a 5-1 victory against the Angels on Friday. They improved their record to 8-11 with the win. Los Angeles was on a five-game winning streak before the loss. Their record drops to 13-8 with the loss. Chicago pitches Vincent Velasquez against the Angels Jose Suarez. The White Sox are a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Cleveland visits Oakland at 4:07 PM ET. The Indians send out Shane Bieber to pitch against the A’s Cole Irvin. Cleveland is a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Minnesota at 4:10 PM ET. Shane McClaughlin pitches for the Rays against the Twins’ Chris Archer. Tampa Bay is a -155 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8.Seattle travels to Miami at 6:10 PM ET. The Mariners pitch Robbie Ray against Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. Seattle is a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 7. San Diego plays at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET. Sean Manaea is the starting pitcher for the Padres. He faces J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates. San Diego is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Boston plays at Baltimore. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the Orioles’ Spenser Watkins. Both teams are priced as -110 money line favorites, with William Hill listing the total at 9. Atlanta is at Texas. Bryce Elder pitches for the Braves against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorites with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers send out Eric Lauer to pitch against the Cubs’ Justin Steele. Milwaukee is a -150 money line with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play at Kansas City. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Carlos Hernandez of the Royals. New York is a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets host Philadelphia in the nightcap on FS1. The Mets tool the first game of this series on Friday when five pitchers combined for a no-hitter in a 3-0 victory. They raised their record to 15-6. The Phillies had their four-game winning streak end with the loss. Taijuan Walker pitches for New York against Kyle Gibson for Philadelphia. The Mets are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Colorado plays at home against Cincinnati at 8:10 PM ET. The Rockies send out Chad Kuhl to pitch against Conner Overton. Colorado is a -170 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 11. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Detroit at 10:10 PM ET. Clayton Kershaw pitches for the Dodgers against Beau Briske for the Tigers. Los Angeles is a -320 money line favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Liverpool travels to Newcastle United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Four matches start at 10 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts Norwich City on CNBC as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Crystal Palace plays at Southampton in a pick ‘em match on Peacock with an over/under of 2.5. Burnley visits Watford on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion is at Wolverhampton on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2. Manchester City plays at Leeds United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

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Draft Report: D-e-f-e-n-s-e!

by Ben Burns

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

You often hear that "defense wins championships" but when was the last time you can remember the first five picks in the NFL Draft all going on the defensive side of the ball? That's what happened last night. We have to all the way back to 1991 to find the last time that the top five picks were all defensive players. Let's take a closer look at some of this year's top stories. #1 OVERALLThe Jaguars got things started by selecting Travon Walker with the first overall pick. While he wasn't orignally expected to go this high, the 272 pound defensive end from Georgia has excellent athleticism and he moved up on the draft boards late.  Recall that the Jags elected to go with QB Trevor Lawrence with the #1 overall pick last year. ROUNDING OUT THE TOP FIVEThe Lions got Aidan Hutchinson with the #2 pick. The defensive lineman from Michigan had previously been projected #1. He led the Big Ten in sacks. Houston's #3 pick was used to secure the first defensive back selected in the draft; Derek Stingley Jr. While he had six interceptions in his freshman season, the LSU cornerback only played three games last year. The Jets had a strong draft and it began with getting Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner with the fourth overall pick. The AAC Defensive Player Of The Year in 2021, Gardner didn't allow a receiving TD in his three years of college. Kayvon Thibodeaux out of Oregon, the fifth straight defensive player chosen, bolsters the Giants' pass rushing skills. TOP QBThe Steelers needed a QB and they grabbed the first one in the Draft with the #21 pick overall. Local product Kenny Pickett had 49 starts for Pittsburgh. He holds all kinds of Pittsburgh (and ACC) records and is expected to be ready to challenge for the starting job sooner, rather than later. Mike Tomlin commented: "We circled the globe -- or at least the United States -- here the last several months, man, just exploring and researching. And it's funny, we ended up with a guy from next door." Pickett, for his part, added: "I'm pretty familiar with the area code. I had a pretty good idea of who it was. I was speechless. It's a lifelong dream, 23 years of hard work to get to this point. That all came in a phone call. It was probably one of the best feelings of my life. I'm so excited to get started and get to work with the guys who are next door to me my whole career in Pittsburgh."BIG DEALThe Titans and Eagles pulled off the big trade of the night. Philadelphia picked up receiver A.J. Brown in exchange for the #18 overall pick.SURPRISE We've learned not to question Belichick. He's certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. Still, many were surprised to see the Patriots pick Cole Strange with their first pick. The guard out of Chattanooga may well turn out to be a decent player. However, most felt he could have been picked up later on. Sean McVay laughed out loud at the selection. REMEMBERING 1991The first six picks of the 1991 Draft were all on the defensive side of the ball. The first overall pick was Russel Maryland, who went to Dallas. While some had very solid careers, arguably, none of those six ended up being a "superstar." Seven of the first nine picks were defensive players and the other two were offensive tackles. Time will tell how this year's draft picks turn out. All I know, is that I'm already itching for some football. 

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April National League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

April National League Overachievers With a month of the season underway there is enough pitching data to draw some early conclusions and the marketplace will start to adjust to the current season numbers more than history and reputation. In a four-start sample several starters have had fortunate results however and here are four NL starters that could see adjustments in their upcoming outings.   Drew Smyly – Chicago Cubs:  The Cubs have competed reasonably well in the first month this season with a positive scoring differential and the pitching has been capable with Smyly off to a solid start to the 2022 season. Smyly has bounced around significantly in recent years without sustained success but wound up in the right spot last season as a contributor for the World Series champion Braves. That led to a one-year deal with the Cubs that so far has paid off with a 2.79 ERA in four starts.  Smyly has a K/9 of only 6.1 this season while he has had unusual ground ball success this season at nearly 55 percent compared with a career average of around 37 percent for a huge difference. Smyly has the best strand rate in the NL at this point in the season as more than 97 percent of his base runners have failed to score and his CSW% below 27 percent that is the lowest of his career at this point in 2022 despite his solid conventional line through four starts. Smyly has allowed four home runs in last two starts as things are likely going to head in the wrong direction moving forward.  Julio Urias – Los Angeles Dodgers: Urias was a slight overachiever last season going 20-3 in 32 starts with a 2.96 ERA despite a 3.73 xFIP. His career xFIP is 4.10, more than run higher than his career ERA but the gap in those numbers is more than two runs at this point in 2022, with a 2.50 ERA compared to a 4.51 xFIP. Fading the Dodgers will always be difficult, but compared to the other options in the rotation, Urias looks beatable for several opposing lineups.  Urias faced struggling Cincinnati and Arizona in his two most successful starts this season and he has a 7.5 K/9 and a 4.0 BB/9 so far in the 2022 season, hardly elite figures that would suggest a front-line starter that Urias will often be valued as. Urias is only 25 and has a bright future but he has managed a .170 BABIP so far this season as a lot of things have gone right in the first month.  Dakota Hudson – St. Louis Cardinals:  Hudson has been lucky so far in 2022 with a 2.75 ERA built on a .180 BABIP through four starts. His xFIP is 4.48, right in-line with his career average but he has managed to get away with a high walk count and a low strikeout rate this season. Hudson has always been an effective ground ball pitcher but so far this season his ground ball rate would be the lowest of his career. Hudson has topped 40 innings in an MLB season just once in his career back in 2019 and he is likely to be an erratic option as the season moves on. Hudson has a CSW% of below 25 percent, a rate that will be among the worst of NL starters by season’s end and right near 25% has been the career norm for Hudson whether as a starter or a reliever. St. Louis looks like a playoff threat in the NL with a solid first month from the offense, but Hudson is not in the same class as the rest of the rotation even if the early season numbers are right there at first glance. Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins:  Alcantara has been deserving of a breakthrough season, 22-34 in his career despite elite potential pitching for typically lousy Marlins teams. This year Miami looks like a group that can compete and so far, Alcantara has a 1.78 ERA. He is going to face steep pricing moving forward even through the current clip is not likely sustainable. Alcantara was a dramatically worse pitcher in his road starts last season and in 2022 his two road starts have been favorable pairings.  Alcantara has stranded nearly 85 percent of his baserunners this season and has only allowed one home run after allowing 21 last season and only stranding 72 percent of baserunners in 2021. Alcantara’s xFIP is 3.94 in 2022, with a career xFIP of 4.31. His strikeout rate so far in 2022 is down from the past two seasons while his BB/9 is as high as it has been since 2019. Alcantara is one of the better NL starters, but he may start to be valued as one of the very best, which just hasn’t been the case this season or in his career. 

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April American League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

April American League Overachievers With a month of the season underway there is enough pitching data to draw some early conclusions and the marketplace will start to adjust to the current season numbers more than history and reputation. In a four-start sample, several starters have had fortunate results however and here are four AL starters that could see adjustments in their upcoming outings.  Michael Wacha – Boston Red Sox: An instant star early in his career with the Cardinals, postingseveral great starts in the 2013 postseason before St. Louis lost to Boston inthe World Series, Wacha was an upper tier NL starter for several seasons.Things have fallen apart for Wacha now with his fourth team in four seasons.Wacha graded as one of the least successful starters in MLB from 2019-2021including posting just three wins over 23 starts with a 5.05 ERA with Tampa Baylast year. Wacha is only 30 years old as it makes sense for teams to continueto take a chance on him as Boston did with a one-year contract. So far, theresults have been promising with a 1.77 ERA in four starts and a 2-0 record indecisions. Wacha has just a 7.5 K/9 however and a 4.0 BB/9 that would be thehighest of his career. He has stranded nearly 93 percent of his base runnersand has a .154 BABIP so far this season compared to a .300 career average. Ashis 4.00 FIP suggests, the current pace for Wacha is unsustainable. Jordan Montgomery – New York Yankees: The Yankees lead the AL East with a 13-6 start and the pitchingstaff has excelled with some of the better numbers in MLB through the firstmonth of the season. Montgomery has been an important piece of that successwith a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings of work, even though he is winless. Montgomeryhas benefitted from facing Baltimore in two of his starts while also posting astrong outing vs. a light hitting Tigers lineup. Montgomery had average results last season for New York in over157 innings and a season line like last season is likely the ceiling for theleft-hander at age 29. The April success for Montgomery has come with the worstK/9 of his career at 6.8 while his xFIP of 4.16 looks much more realistic thanhis current 2.70 ERA. The Yankees should not count on Montgomery being amainstay in the rotation all season if they want to stay on top of the AL Eastand the opportunity to fade New York at an elevated price may be there whenMontgomery’s takes his turns in the rotation in May. New York has a pair of serieseach with Toronto and Chicago in May, both teams that hit left-handersextremely well. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals: A closing stop in Kansas City should be a nice way to end aremarkable career for Greinke; a storybook 2022 season is however not likely tocontinue for Greinke who has had some great early season fortune. Greinke hasnever been reliant on elite strikeout rates, but his current K/9 is 2.5compared to his career average of 8.1. Greinke has pitched exclusively in theAL Central in his four starts this season as there will be tougher matchupswaiting as the schedule moves on for the Royals. Greinke has a 4.75 xFIP next to his 2.86 ERA and he has so farallowed only one home run in 22 innings, after he allowed 30 home runs in 171innings last season pitching for Houston. Greinke has had his lowest groundball rate this season since 2007 as more home runs are likely to happen in hisfuture starts and unless Greinke can start to generate a few more strikeouts,it will be difficult for the Royals to count on Greinke to be a leader in therotation. The pricing to fade the Royals won’t often be appealing but Greinkestarts may be worth an ‘over’ look, particularly in a May schedule for KansasCity that features several formidable offenses. Cal Quantrill – Cleveland Guardians: Quantrill pitched well over his head last season in nearly 150innings for Cleveland going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA. That was with a mediocre K/9of 7.3 and his xFIP of 4.43 was almost exactly his career average despite thebig improvement over his career ERA. This season Quantrill has a 5.15 xFIPagainst a 3.27 ERA as he again is overachieving. His groundball rate has beenjust 37 percent so far this season for by far a career low and his CSW% is justover 23 percent, among the worst of any AL starter at this point in the season. Quantrillwas a 1st round pick in 2016 but he doesn’t have a first-round secondary pitchesand his current BABIP of .221 will be hard to sustain. Quantrill has only 10strikeouts this season in 22 innings while also walking 10 batters. Despite astrong 3.27 ERA at this point in the season Quantrill has allowed at least tworuns in all four of his starts as he has not had a dominant outing and he hashad great fortune to only surrender one home run at this point in the season.With the Cleveland offense off to a decent start, the ‘over’ may be worth alook in upcoming Quantrill outings. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with one game in the first round of the playoffs. Memphis travels to Minnesota on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Grizzlies took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 111-109 victory against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis is a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 229 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Fifteen games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Seven games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at home against Columbus as a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Buffalo is at home against Chicago as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Toronto hosts Boston as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida visits Montreal as a -280 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. New Jersey plays at home against Detroit as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers are at home against Washington as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Philadelphia is at home against Ottawa as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Tampa Bay plays at New York against the Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Three more NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. St. Louis hosts Vegas as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Colorado travels to Minnesota as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Calgary is at Winnipeg as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Dallas plays at home against Anaheim at 8:37 PM ET as a -235 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Edmonton hosts Vancouver at 9:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Seattle is at home against San Jose at 10:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Nashville visits Arizona at 10:37 PM ET as a -285 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. San Diego plays at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Seattle is at Miami at 6:40 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston travels to Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Toronto hosts Houston at 7:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at home against Minnesota as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets are at home against Philadelphia as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta visits Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees play at Kansas City as a -210 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Milwaukee plays at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. St. Louis is at home against Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7. Colorado hosts Cincinnati at 8:40 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Oakland plays at home against Cleveland at 9:40 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Detroit at 10:10 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. San Francisco hosts Washington at 10:15 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 28, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with three in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia visits Toronto on NBA-TV at 7 PM ET. The Raptors won Game 5 in a 103-88 upset victory as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. The 76ers still hold a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series. Philadelphia is a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 209.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Phoenix plays at New Orleans in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:30 PM ET. The Suns took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 112-97 victory as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.Dallas travels to Utah in the nightcap on TNT at 10 PM ET. The Mavericks have a 3-2 lead in the series after beating the Jazz, 102-77, as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Dallas is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 210.5.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for five games. Boston hosts Buffalo as a -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida is at Ottawa as a -220 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Carolina host New Jersey as a -250 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at Columbus as a -260 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Washington visits New York to play the Islanders as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary travels to Minnesota at 8:07 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. Colorado hosts Nashville as a -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Edmonton plays at home against San Jose as a -320 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vancouver is a home against Los Angeles at 10:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games. The first pitch gets thrown for two games at 12:35 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against San Diego as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Milwaukee plays at Pittsburgh as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Three MLB games start at 1:05 PM ET. Philadelphia hosts Colorado as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 7. Miami visits Washington as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Baltimore as a -220 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Seattle at 1:10 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston travels to Texas at 2:05 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Toronto hosts Boston at 3:07 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against Cleveland at 4:07 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta hosts the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 8. St. Louis is at home against Arizona at 7:45 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET. Chelsea plays at Manchester United as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Ness Notes: Early Look at 2022

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Apr 28, 2022

The 2022 MLB season enters its fourth week on Thursday (Opening Day was Thursday, April 7th) and here's a few "random thoughts." Few, if any, still consider baseball "America's Pastime'' but there is something about MLB and its history that can still gain national attention. That was the case last weekend when Miguel Cabrera joined the 3,000-hit club on Saturday, becoming the 33rd member of that exclusive club. What's more, he became just the SEVENTH member of the 3,000-hit, 500-HR club, joining Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Eddie Murray. Most impressively, Cabrera is just the THIRD player to reach 3,000 hits, top 500 HRs AND own a lifetime BA of over .300. He joins Hank Aaron (.305, 3,771 hits and 755 HRs) and Willie Mays (.302, 3,283 and 660). Through games played Wednesday, Cabrera's 'triple crown' line sits at .310, 3,002 and 502).Albert Puljos is the only other active player in the 3,000-hit, 500-HR club and at 42, is playing the final season of his career. His rookie season with the Cardinals was 2001 and he hit over .300 in each of his first 10 years (low of .312 and a high of .359), while also driving in 100-plus runs in all 10 (average of 123 per season). He also hit 403 HRs in that time frame. The Cards won the World Series in 2006 and then again in 2011, when Pujols failed to hit .300 for the first time (.299 with 42 HRs and 118 RBI). He became a free agent for the first time in his career after 2011 and decided to not take the Cards' offer (reportedly a 10-year, $210 million deal with $30 million deferred. He instead signed a 10-year deal with the Angels worth around $254 million. I think all know how that worked out. After averaging 40 HRs/year through his first 11 seasons, Puljos only reached the 40-HR mark ONCE while with the Angels (hit 40 HRs in 2015) and after batting .285 in his first season with them (2012), he never came close to hitting .300. He hit .256 as an Angel from 2012-2021 with 222 HRs. Pujols signed a one-year contract to return to the St Louis Cardinals back on March 28, 2022, announcing that 2022 would be his final season. We'll see how the season plays out but the saying "You can never go home again," comes to mind. Through the season's first three weeks, Pujols has played in nine games, batting .259 with two HRs and four RBI.That said, we should take a moment to appreciate both Cabrera and Pujols. Cabrera is 39 and will likely play beyond this season but as noted, Pujols is 'walking away' after the 2022 season. At the moment, his 681 HRs rank 5th all-time, his 2,135 RBI rank third and his 3,308 hits rank 12th. Cabrera joined the 3,000-hit club last Saturday but It's going to be a while until we see another player join the 3,000-hit club. There are only FIVE active players with 2,000 hits, INCLUDING Pujols and Cabrera. Robinson Cano (2,631 hits) is 39, Yadier Molina (2,117) is retiring this fall and Joey Votto (2,035) is 38. The Mariners and Dodgers opened the 2022 season as MLB's biggest 'streakers.' Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season (one COULDN'T make that up!). Seattle also finished as MLB's best moneyline team in 2021 (+$3,670 at $100/game), barely edging out the 107-win Giants ($3,626). It may come as a surprise that the 76-85 Tigers were the third-best moneyline team (+$2,303), dwarfing the 106-win Dodgers, who finished -$73 at $100/game. The Dodgers saw their streak of EIGHT consecutive NL West titles end in 2021 but they entered the 2022 season having made the postseason NINE straight seasons, the longest-active streak in MLB.Let me check in on some other active streaks, both good and bad. I'll start with the bad. The Phillies have missed the postseason for 10 straight years, while the Angels and Tigers have failed to make the playoffs in each of the last SEVEN. The Angels won the franchise's only World Series title back in 2002 but I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). Note the Angels own two of the biggest and brightest stars in the game in Ohtani (2021 MVP in the AL) and Mike Trout. Ohtani hit 46 HRs with 100 RBI and 26 SBs in 2091, while going 14-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 156 Ks in 130.1 IP. All Trout has accomplished is finishing among the top-5 in the MVP voting in each of his first NINE seasons, winning in 2014, 2016 and 2019. Trout played in just 36 games last season and didn't play at all after May 17! The Pirates and Royals have each sat out the postseason for the last SIX years. KC deserves a mention in that the Royals played in back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost to the Giants 4-3) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but six playoff-less seasons have followed. The 2016 team went 81-81 and the 2017 went 81-81. However, the last four seasons have seen KC go 217-329 (.397). KC fans may be sensing some "deja vu," as after the 1985 team won the franchise's first World Series crown, the Royals didn't make the playoffs again until 2014 (that's a span of 28 years!).As noted, the Dodgers own the longest-active postseason run at NINE but playoff success had been lacking for this legendary franchise, as the team's 2020 World Series win came in a season in which  MLB played a 60-game schedule due to COVID. It still counts but the Dodgers hadn't won a World Series since 1988 ('crickets' from 1989 thru 2019!). The Astros and Yankees have the second-longest active streaks at five in a row. The Astros remain the team everyone 'loves to hate' because of the team's "sign-stealing" scandal. However, Houston has made the World Series in THREE of the last five years. Houston won the 2017 World Series (over the Dodgers), lost the 2019 World Series (to the Nats) and then lost it again last season to the Braves. The Yankees are MLB's most famous and successful franchise (27 World Series titles) but since winning FOUR World Series titles in a five-year span (1996-2000), the Yankees lone World Series win came back in 2009. It HAS to 'kill' Yankee fans that in the past 21 seasons, the-hated Red Sox have won four World Series (2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018) and the Giants have won three (2012, 2014 and 2016). MLB 2022 (Three Weeks In).Despite no Jacob deGrom, the Mets own MLB's best record at 14-6 (first team to play 20 games) and have captured all of the SIX series they've played. For every Yin, there has to be a Yang, and that would be the Cincinnati Reds. Cincy lost 11 straight from April 12-23, scoring a total of 20 runs in that span (note: The Reds scored two or less runs in the final eight losses of that streak). The Reds check in at 3-15 and also own MLB's worst moneyline mark (-$1,041). Arizona pulled off that unwanted 'daily double' in 2021, going 52-110 and -$3.941. The D'backs aren't 'lighting it up' in the early going but are off to an 8-11 (.421) start, after playing .321 baseball last season. Watch out Cincy fane, the Reds' winning percentage (if you radon the pun) is .167.Where do things stand after just three weeks around the two leagues? The 12-6 Yankees lead the AL East over the 12-7 Blue Jays and 10-8 Rays (Tampa Bay has won this division each of the last two seasons). The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. Minnesota is back atop the division after three weeks, at 10-8. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. Chicago expected even more in 2022 but just ended an eight-game losing streak Wednesday night and check in at 8-10. The Angels have missed the postseason for SEVEN straight years (2014) but lead the AL West at 12-7. Seattle is hoping to end its 20-year postseason drought and is 11-7. Meanwhile, the Astros (winners of the division in FOUR of the last five seasons) are just 9-9.Over in the NL, the 14-6 Mets lead the East and the defending World Champion Braves are just 8-11 (Braves have won the East the last four seasons). As noted earlier, the Phillies have missed 10 consecutive postseason and are off to a 9-10 start. The Brewers lead the Central at 12-7, with the Cards checking in at 10-7. The Giants ended the Dodgers run of EIGHT consecutive NL West titles last season (Giants had 107 wins to the Dodgers 106) and many thought that was a fluke. However, the Giants are 13-6 and the Dodgers 12-6. The Giants played .660 baseball in winning 107 games in 2021 and right now are playing .684. Let me close with a note on the Dodgers. LA won its first five home games of the 2022 season, before losing 3-1 to the Braves on April 19. That ended a streak of 20 consecutive regular season home wins by LA, going back to a home loss in August of 2021 (August 29th, to be exact). Which team beat LA in that game? Naturally, the Braves.I'll check back on the current MLB season come Memorial Day.Good luck...Larry

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2022 WNBA Season Preview: Part One

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022

While the NBA and NHL playoffs not to mention the early stages of the MLB season consume most bettors' attention, the 2022 WNBA season is a little over a week away from tipping off. We've found plenty of success exposing soft lines on the ladies hardwood over the years and expect more of the same this season.Here's part one of our look at what to expect from the league's 12 teams.Odds to win the WNBA title are courtesy BetOnline.Connecticut Sun (+350)The Sun proved to be the 'cream of the crop' during the regular season last year but couldn't keep it going in the playoffs. Most believe the Sun are rightly positioned as the preseason favorite to win the WNBA title this year. Health will of course play a key role and all indications are that all of Connecticut's key pieces are full-go entering the season, led by reigning league MVP Jonquel Jones. Courtney Williams is back after a brief stop-over in Atlanta to relieve some of the scoring burden from Jones. Jasmine Thomas recently reported to camp after returning from overseas league play in Turkey. You'd be hard-pressed to find a deeper team with no fewer than six players having been previously elected as league All-Stars. Chicago Sky (+425)The Sky are the reigning champs so it's not surprising that they're projected as a championship contender again this season. It may seem odd to talk about a 'window of opportunity' closing just months after a championship run but Chicago's roster isn't getting any younger, with a number of veterans looking to repeat last year's performance and perhaps ride off into the sunset. The addition of 2019 WNBA Finals MVP Emma Meeseman and Julie Allemand among others have the Sky optimistic that, to quote the Counting Crows, this year could (actually) be better than the last.Phoenix Mercury (+500)Brittney Griner's ongoing ordeal in Russia certainly hangs over the Mercury franchise. Phoenix did load up in the offseason, adding the likes of Tina Charles and Diamond DeShields - two proven performers that should fit right in. Diana Taurasi is back in the mix as well, perhaps for a final run at a title. It remains to be seen how it will all work with first-year head coach Vanessa Nygaard at the helm but there's no question the talent is there for the Mercury to finish near the top of the standings once again.Washington Mystics (+1400)The Mystics appear to fit the bill as a solid sleeper pick, provided Elena Delle Donne can stay healthy which is always a big question mark. Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen are one of the more underrated one-two punches in the league in my opinion. Add in some savvy drafting with Shakira Austin poised to make an immediate impact (unfortunately their other draft choice Christyn Williams will miss the season after suffering an injury during the preseason) and Washington is capable of making some noise in an uneven Eastern Conference.New York Liberty (+2500)There are those that believe this might just be 'the year' for the Liberty but I think that's a little optimistic (and the oddsmakers seem to agree). Health concerns always seem to swirl around Sabrina Ionescu. If she can stay on the floor, there's reason to believe the Liberty could contend in the top half of the East. New head coach Sandy Brondello comes over from Phoenix to lead a talent-laden roster that also includes last year's Rookie of the Year Michaela Onyenwere. The addition of Stefanie Dolson from the reigning champion Sky gives New York some much-needed stability and production down low. Atlanta Dream (+6600)The Dream were in desperate need of a franchise reset and got just that in the offseason with changes across the board, both on and off the court. Nia Coffey, Kia Vaughn and Erica Wheeler have joined the down-trodden Dream through free agency and it always helps to have the number one overall pick in the draft, with the Dream opting to go with Rhyne Howard who should be able to help right away. Atlanta's prospects could hinge on how Aari McDonald develops after an up-and-down rookie campaign a year ago. While Atlanta is still likely a year or two away from contending for a playoff spot, there's no question the franchise is once again pointed in the right direction. Check back next week as we look at the WNBA's other six teams in part two of our season preview.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 04/27/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with two games on TNT in the first round of the playoffs. Milwaukee hosts Chicago at 7:30 PM ET. The Bucks took a 3-1 lead in this series with their 119-95 victory on the road as a 4.5-favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee is a 12-point favorite, with the total set at 218.Golden State plays at home against Denver at 10 PM ET. The Nuggets won their first game in this series with a 126-121 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Golden State has a 3-1 lead in the series and is a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 226.Five games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 7:37 PM ET for two games. Winnipeg is at home against Philadelphia as a -185 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Rangers host Montreal as a -380 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two NHL games begin at 8:37 PM ET. Vegas visits Chicago as a -230 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Dallas plays at home against Arizona as a -500 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Los Angeles is at Seattle at 10:07 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 6. The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Mets travel to St. Louis at 1:15 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Chicago White Sox is at home against Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Arizona at 3:40 PM ET as a -195 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.Milwaukee visits Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. San Diego is at Cincinnati as a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Tampa Bay hosts Seattle as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Philadelphia plays at home against Colorado at 6:45 PM ET as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 7:05 PM ET. Miami is at Washington as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Baltimore as a -250 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Toronto hosts Boston at 7:07 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 9. Atlanta plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota is at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -170 money line favorite with a total of 7. Houston travels to Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against Cleveland at 9:38 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 8. San Francisco hosts Oakland at 9:45 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The semifinals of the UEFA Champions League continue with one match on CBS at 3 PM ET. Liverpool plays at home against Villarreal as a -1.5 goal line favorite at PlayMGM with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 04/26/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 26, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with three games in the first round of the playoffs. Miami hosts Atlanta on NBA-TV at 7 PM ET. The Heat took a 3-1 lead in this series with their 110-86 victory against the Hawks as a 1-point road favorite on Sunday. Miami is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 217.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Memphis plays at home against Minnesota in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:30 PM ET. The Timberwolves evened this series at 2-2 with their 119-118 upset victory as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. Phoenix is at home against New Orleans in the nightcap on TNT at 10 PM ET. The Pelicans made this a 2-2 series with a 118-103 upset win at home as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 215.5. Thirteen games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Seven games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. Toronto hosts Detroit as a -450 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Florida visits Boston as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Ottawa plays at home against New Jersey as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay is at home against Columbus as a -380 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers are at home against Carolina as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Washington hosts the New York Islanders as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Pittsburgh plays at home in the first game on ESPN as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. Calgary travels to Nashville as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Minnesota is at home against Arizona as a -600 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Dallas hosts Vegas at 8:37 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Colorado plays at home against St. Louis in the second game on ESPN at 9:37 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vancouver hosts Seattle at 10:07 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. San Jose is at home against Anaheim at 10:37 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Milwaukee visits Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games begin at 6:40 PM ET. San Diego plays at Cincinnati as a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Seattle is at Tampa Bay. Philadelphia is at home against Colorado at 6:45 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Miami travels to Washington as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Baltimore as a -280 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Toronto hosts Boston at 7:07 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago White Sox play at home against Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Atlanta is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Minnesota hosts Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite. The New York Mets play at St. Louis on TBS with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 7.5. Houston visits Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against Cleveland at 9:38 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -195 money line road favorite with a total of 9. San Francisco is at home against Oakland at 9:45 PM ET as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begin with one match on CBS at 3 PM ET. Manchester City hosts Real Madrid in the first leg as a -1 goal line favorite at PlayMGM with a total of 2.5.

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La Liga and Serie A: Latest Look

by Power Sports

Monday, Apr 25, 2022

I already hit the EPL and Bundesliga. Now it’s time to check in on La Liga and Serie A. At the top, one race is all but decided while the other is very much up in the air. Relegation battles in both leagues have also gotten quite interesting. La Liga Whereas Bayern Munich has already clinched a 10th straight Bundesliga title, it is not yet official that Real Madrid will be champions of La Liga this season. But that will happen as Los Blancos currently enjoy a 15-point cushion over Barcelona and Sevilla with just five matches to go. Therefore, Real Madrid can now concentrate on the Champions League where they’ll be facing off with Manchester City in the semifinals, starting Tuesday.Speaking of Barcelona, they have lost three consecutive home matches for the first time in their history. The club clearly misses Pedri, but should still finish top four. Though it would be a small consolation, this could be the second year in a row Barca finishes 1st in La Liga in expected points (xPts) despite not actually winning the league.While Real Madrid’s 35th title is all but assured at this point, the race for the remaining three Champions League spots has gotten quite interesting. I already hit on slumping Barcelona. You’ve also got Sevilla and last year’s champions, Atletico Madrid, currently in position to make next year’s Champions League. Personally, I think Sevilla is NOT as strong as its record indicates, though only four losses is huge and will probably ensure they stay in the top four. It should be noted they are only eighth in xPts. I’d also be surprised to see Atletico drop out of the top four, even though they have just one win in their last five competitions and have failed to score in four of them. Waiting in the wings, four points out of the top four, is Real Betis, who already has clinched a Europa League spot for next year by virtue of winning Saturday’s Copa del Rey Final over Valencia. If Betis finishes in the top five, then you’ll see another Europa League spot open up to the sixth place finisher in La Liga. That race likely comes down to Real Sociedad (who is better than their +1 goal differential indicates) and Villarreal (who is still playing in the Champions League).The Champions League figures to be the focus of Villarreal right now, but it is unlikely they will win it. It would be a shame if this side is somehow locked out of European football next season. They are tied for third in GD in La Liga. Seventh place will likely gain entry into the Europa Conference League, but the Yellow Submarine must be wary of Athletic Bilbao, who is a solid side and only four points behind them. There’s a big gap between the top eight and everyone else in La Liga. Mid-table sides assured of safety (from relegation) for next season would include: Osasuna, Valencia, Rayo Vallecano, Celta Viga, Espanyol and Elche. I *think* Getafe might be okay as well, though compared to the aforementioned sides, they could really use one more win.Therefore, you’re likely looking at five sides in the relegation battle. Levante (despite being 9th in xPts!) and Alaves are probably cooked. The third spot has gotten very interesting with Mallorca, Cadiz and Granada all separated by only two points. Mallorca has the worst GD of the three, but as I’ve previously said, Cadiz and Granada were both bottom three in xPts last season. Granada is currently last in xPts this season.Serie AWhile title races in the Bundesliga and La Liga are wrapped up, here in Serie A it’s just like the Premier League - a very tight two-team battle at the top. AC Milan’s last gasp victory over Lazio on Sunday put them back ahead of Inter by two points. Had Sando Tonali not scored in the second minute of stoppage time, then the two Milan sides would be entering this week tied atop the summit. Inter has the better GD (+45 vs. +30) and is also ahead on xPts. Thus I still would not be shocked if they captured their second straight Scudetto. Also note that Inter just drilled AC Milan 3-0 to advance in the Coppa Italia. Napoli looked to be a title challenger for much of this season, but now looks destined for third place after earning just a single point from their last three matches. Blowing a two-goal lead to Empoli on Sunday was just horrific. The similarity with La Liga is that I don’t see the top four changing here in Italy. Juventus, still with a five-point cushion, should stay in the top four and note they are onto the final of the Coppa Italia where they’ll face Inter. (Note Juve’s cushion could get even larger as they’ve still got a fixture Monday that was not complete at the time of this writing). Assuming both Inter and Juve finish top four, that means an extra European spot opens up here in Serie A. That should be a fascinating race with Roma, Fiorentina, Lazio and Atalanta all grasping. I would bank on Roma and Atalanta finishing as the top two of that quartet. Lazio has drastically overachieved this season when it comes to goal scoring. In fact, no side in all of Europe has exceeded its xG (expected goal) total more! (I’ve brought this up previously). I could see Fiorentina being the one left out of European football next season.The gap between the top eight and everyone else isn’t quite as stark here as it is in La Liga as you’ve got solid mid-table sides like Hellas Verona, Sassuolo and a side that has been very kind to me in recent weeks, Torino.After that, it is a big drop, though Udinese, Bologna, Empoli and Spezia have all probably done enough to remain in the top flight next season. The relegation battle is interesting as all of a sudden, Salernitana, who has been in last place basically all season, has won three straight to move within three points of safety. They still have the worst GD (-42) and are tied with Genoa (-29), who won for just the third time all season on Sunday (1-0 over Cagliari), at 25 points. Now stuck in last place is Venezia with 22 points. Cagliari (28 points) and Sampdoria (30 points) both have work to do, but I still predict the bottom three will remain unchanged by season’s end. 

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