Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, NHL and WNBA Previews and Odds - 06/02/2021

Wednesday, Jun 02, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA playoffs have four games on the docket. Philadelphia hosts Washington on NBA-TV at 7:05 PM ET. The Wizards staved off elimination with their 122-114 upset win at home against the Sixers as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. The 76ers have been on a five-game winning streak before the loss in Game 4 of this series. Philadelphia is a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 229.5 (all odds from BetOnline).New York plays Atlanta on TNT at 7:35 PM ET. The Knicks trail 3-1 in this series after dropping two in a row with their 113-96 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Hawks have won seven of their last eight games. New York is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 208. Utah is at home against Memphis on NBA-TV at 9:35 PM ET. The Jazz have won three straight to take a 3-1 lead in this series after their 120-113 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against Dallas on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Clippers evened this series at 2-2 with their 106-81 victory as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 217.Two games are on the NHL playoff schedule. Winnipeg hosts Montreal on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET in the opening game of the North Division finals series. The Jets swept the Edmonton Oilers after their 4-3 victory on May 24th. The Canadiens defeated Toronto in Game 7 of their opening-round series with Toronto with their 3-1 win on Monday. Winnipeg is a -132 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Colorado plays at home against Vegas on the NBC Sports Network at 10:08 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 7-1 victory in Game 1. The Golden Knights have lost three of their last four games. Colorado is a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Twelve games are on the MLB slate. Philadelphia visits Cincinnati at 12:35 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox plays at Cleveland at 1:10 PM ET as a -157 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. San Diego travels to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite. The New York Mets are at Arizona at 3:40 PM ET as a -106 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees host Tampa Bay at 7:05 PM ET as a -127 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota visits Baltimore. Toronto is at home against Miami at 7:07 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 8. Washington travels to Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET. Houston hosts Boston at 8:10 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Texas visits Colorado at 8:40 PM ET as a -113 money line road favorite with the total at 10.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against St. Louis at 9:10 PM ET as a -222 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Oakland plays at Seattle at 10:10 PM ET as a -141 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Three games are on the WNBA schedule. Las Vegas visits New York at 7 PM ET. Chicago plays at Phoenix at 10 PM ET. Indiana plays at Los Angeles.

CFB 2021: ACC Coastal Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

ACC Coastal Division:Duke – This team very likely to be at the very bottom of the standings. They allowed 56 points in each of 3 of last 4 games last season and the only one they did not they allowed 48 points! So defense was already a major concern and now they lost nearly their entire defensive line. Coach Cutcliffe having problems here and losing key players to transfers and exits from the program with the defensive line being a key example of that. Georgia Tech – Middle of the pack team at best and more likely to finish below the .500 level. Known for making too many penalties and mental mistakes. The Yellow Jackets are in year three under head coach Geoff Collins so the new offensive schemes he brought here should be better as they transitioned away from being an option team. However, the defense is still a question mark and, again, GT just has not been a team that executes well. Miami – The biggest problem for the Hurricanes is they play in the same conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd or 3rd in the conference and should challenge the Tar Heels for 1st in the Coastal Division. A key will be the health of senior QB D’Eriq King but he is progressing well in his recovery from an ACL injury. Can the defensive patchwork that head coach Manny Diaz has planned hold up? This team got tripped up often on the defensive side of the ball last season and they must be better there. They are respectable in the secondary but struggle to stop the run. Will Diaz calling the shots help the defense turn around?North Carolina – The biggest problem for the Tar Heels is they play in the same conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd in the conference and 1st in the Coastal Division. Sam Howell at QB is a key for UNC. Defensively, based on key experience returning, the Tar Heels are expected to improve. They have added size to the defensive line in recent recruiting classes and those guys are now ready to contribute. Their schedule avoids Clemson in the regular season as well. Pittsburgh – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. Have talented QB in Pickett but the run game not able to do enough to take the pressure off of him. The defense lost some key guys so could be a regression year on that side of the ball. Considering those factors, this is again a bit of an unpredictable team. If they can get the run game going and, in turn, get Pickett more of chance to succeed through the passing game, we should see some good opportunities for overs with this team because the defense could take a step down this season. Virginia – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. Too many question marks in my opinion. Also a very tough schedule with some road games that appear very tough to win. The question marks include at wide receiver on offense and then middle linebacker and defensive line on the other side of the ball. Unless those areas surprise, the Cavaliers will not surprise either! Virginia Tech –The Hokies should challenge both the Tar Heels and Hurricanes for playing 2nd fiddle to Clemson as that team is in a class of its own but the Hokies should be a contender in the Coastal Division. Injuries will be key as to how this season goes for Virginia Tech because they have solid talent in terms of starters but just do not have much depth. This will be something to watch with the Hokies and plus I just do not trust their defense. They allowed big points in too many games last season so I will be looking for overs with this team if the offense clicks. They do have some solid talent at the skill positions on offense but can they develop some of the new starters? Watch for early season signs of whether this team jells or not.

NHL Hockey: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 2 Preview, Odds and Prediction - 06/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

NHL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning at the Carolina Hurricanes.Tampa Bay looks to take a 2-0 lead in the Central Division finals series after defeating Carolina by a 2-1 score in the opener on Sunday. The puck drops on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET.Brayden Point began the scoring in the second period when he scored on a power play at the 8:15 minute mark to give the Lightning the lead. Jake Bean evened the score 1:41 minutes into the third period on a power play for the Hurricanes. Barclay Goodrow scored the eventual game-winner for Tampa Bay just under 11 minutes later at the 12:39 mark. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 37 of the 38 shots he faced to frustrate Carolina on their home ice. The Vezina Trophy finalist has a 5-2 record this postseason with a 2.41 goals-against-average and a .936 save percentage. Alex Nedeljkovic made 28 saves, but he drew scrutiny for the soft goal he allowed in the third period on the Goodrow effort. The rookie is 4-3 in the playoffs, with a 2.19 goals-against-average and a .923 save percentage. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour gave him the nod as the team’s starting goaltender over veterans Petr Mrazek and James Reimer after his regular season, posting a 15-5-3 record and a 1.90 goals-against-average and a .932 save percentage in 23 games. The Lightning advanced to the Central Division finals after defeating Florida in the opening round in six games. Tampa Bay is converting on 39.1% of their power plays this postseason after scoring one of their three chances in Game 1. The Lightning converted on eight of their 20 power-play chances against the Panthers. Tampa Bay has been energized by the return of forward Nikita Kucherov, who missed the entire regular season due to a hip injury. He leads the team with 12 points in the postseason coming from three goals and nine assists. Defenseman Victor Hedman has added nine assists. Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos have both contributed eight points. The Hurricanes earned the top seed in the Central Division with 80 points, the third-highest amount in the NHL during the regular season. They needed seven games to get past Nashville in the first round of the playoffs. After posting the second-best power-play unit in the regular season with a conversion rate of 25.6%, Carolina was successful in 20.2% of their opportunities with the man advantage against the Predators. The Hurricanes converted once on the four power-play chances they had on Sunday. Sebastian Aho leads the team in the playoffs with five goals and seven points. Martin Necas has two goals and three assists. Eric Staal has added four goals and an assist. Carolina right-wing Nino Niederreiter is dealing with an upper-body injury that Brind’Amour has said makes him “very, very doubtful” to play in this series. Niederreiter scored 20 goals during the regular season on the Hurricanes’ second line. Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak left Game 1 midway during the second period after getting sandwiched by two Hurricane players. He is listed as questionable but expected to play. Fellow defenseman David Savard, a midseason pickup from Columbus, is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. These two teams split their eight regular-season meetings. BookMaker lists Carolina as a -113 money line favorite, with the total set at 5.5.Computer prediction: Carolina Hurricanes 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 06/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA playoffs have three games on the docket. Brooklyn hosts Boston in the opening game of a TNT doubleheader at 7:35 PM ET. The Nets took a 3-1 lead in this series with their 141-126 victory at Boston as an 8.5-point road favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn is a -12.5 point favorite, with the total set at 231.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Denver plays at home against Portland on NBA-TV at 9:05 PM ET. The Trail Blazers evened this series at 2-2 with their 115-95 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Denver is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.Phoenix is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second game on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Suns evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-92 upset victory in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix is a 5-point favorite with a total of 207. One game is on the NHL playoff schedule. Carolina hosts Tampa Bay in the second game of their Central Division finals series on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET. The Lightning defeated the Hurricanes by a 2-1 score on Sunday. Carolina is a -111 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Cleveland plays at home against the Chicago White Sox on FS1 at 6:10 PM ET as a -137 money line favorite with a total of 7. Minnesota visits Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Tampa Bay travels to New York to play the Yankees as a -119 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Toronto hosts Miami at 7:07 PM ET as a -152 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Philadelphia plays at Cincinnati at 7:10 PM ET with both teams priced at -105 with the total at 7.5. Atlanta is at home against Washington at 7:20 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Milwaukee plays at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -156 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.San Diego travels to Detroit at 8:05 PM ET as a -113 money line road favorite. Houston is at home against Boston at 8:10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Kansas City plays at home against Pittsburgh as a -176 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Colorado hosts Texas at 8:40 PM ET as a -111 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Mets visits Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -117 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Francisco plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 9:45 PM ET as a -163 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland is at Seattle at 10:10 PM ET as a -157 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers host St. Louis as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.Four games are on the WNBA schedule. Connecticut plays at home against Las Vegas at 7 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 160.5. Los Angeles travels to Dallas at 8 PM ET. Phoenix visits Chicago on ESPN2 at 8:30 PM ET. Indiana is at Seattle on ESPN2 at 10:30 PM ET.

Would the Toronto Maple Leafs Beat Montreal if Mike Babcock Was Still their Head Coach?

by Team Del Genio

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to win a playoff series for the 18th straight season tonight after losing to Montreal, 3-1, in their North Division Game 7. The loss was the final nail in the coffin that will be considered an epic collapse by Toronto who seemed in control of this series with a 3-1 lead. The Maple Leafs finished in first place in the North Division with 77 points, 18 points ahead of the Canadiens. They are priced as a money line favorite at -195 at BetOnline to win Game 7.Auston Matthews registered an assist tonight, but he ended the series with just one goal and four assists. Matthews led the NHL with 41 goals in 52 games during the regular season. He centered the top line alongside right wing Mitch Marner who had 20 goals and 47 assists in 55 regular-season games. Yet Marner managed only four assists in this seven games series. When the autopsy of what happened to the Maple Leafs in the postseason, it will start with why the productivity of Matthews and Marner declined. Mike Babcock was fired as the Toronto head coach in November of 2019 after a 9-10-4 start to the season. One of the biggest criticisms of Babcock was that he was not giving his stars enough ice time. In the 2018-19 season, the last full regular season under Babcock, Matthews averaged only 18:33 minutes per game. Marner averaged 21:33 minutes per game during that regular season. When general manager Kyle Dubas promoted Sheldon Keefe from the team’s top minor league team to replace Babcock, one of the directives was to get more ice time for Matthews and Marner.Matthews saw his ice time rise to 22:27 minutes per game after the all-star break after averaging 20:20 minutes before that. These numbers are a bit muddy because the pre-all-star break numbers include both Babcock and Keefe-coached games and the second half of the season was shortened because of COVID. Yet the increased ice time under Keefe is notable. Marner saw his ice time rise to 24:39 minutes after the all-star break in 2019-20 after averaging 22:32 before that. This season, Matthews averaged 21:33 minutes per game in the regular season. His ice time increased to 23:44 minutes per game in the playoffs. Marner averaged 22:26 minutes per game in the regular season while seeing that ice time increase to 24:52 in the playoffs. Could the decline in Matthews and Marner’s production be a product of them being tired? Matthews and Marner’s playoff production under Keefe last season left much to be desired. In their upset loss to Columbus in the qualifier for the NHL playoffs in the bubble hosted at their Scotiabank Arena last year, Matthews scored two goals and had four assists in five games. Those are decent numbers. Yet in the 2019 postseason under Babcock, Matthews scored five goals with an assist in their seven-game series with a Boston Bruins team that reached the Stanley Cup finals. Marner did not score in last year’s postseason under Keefe while assisting on four goals. Yet in the 2019 playoffs under Babcock against tougher competition, Keefe scored two goals and added another two assists. Could it be that Babcock’s strategy all along was to keep his stars’ legs fresh for when it mattered most in the playoffs? The production was certainly better. But what does Babcock know? After all, he has won only one Stanley Cup title with Detroit in 2008. He has only coached three teams to the Stanley Cup finals (Anaheim Mighty Ducks in 2003, Detroit in 2008 and 2009). Babcock is the only head coach to take two different teams to a Game 7 in a Stanley Cup final. Maybe he does know something about preparing for a deep playoff run?On the other hand, Sheldon Keefe did lead the minor league Toronto Marlies to the Calder Cup in 2018. But Keefe has yet to lead a team in the NHL to a playoff series win despite being favored in the last two seasons.Dubas hired Keefe to move the team in a different direction. Dubas was elevated to the general manager of the Maple Leafs to replace Lou Lamoriello. Where is Lamoriello now? He was hired by the New York Islanders in 2018. The Islanders are playing the East Division finals against Boston after they upset Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs. The Islanders played in the Eastern Conference finals last season. Draw your own conclusions.Good luck — TDG.

Is It Time to Begin Fading the NBA Playoff Zig-Zag?

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Zig-Zag theory for handicapping the NBA playoffs has steadily gained in popularity over the last few years. The concept is appealing: bet on teams coming off a loss in the playoffs to cover the point spread. It is pretty easy to fill in the narrative to justify the strategy. Losing teams have more resolve to bounce back from a loss. Winning teams may have just a little less urgency to win again. And, at one point, teams coming off a playoff win in the series may become overvalued in the next game if the betting public becomes too enamored with the Recency Effect.But the point spread is the run — and the great equalizer. If the betting public begins to ignore the Recency Effect and begin banking on the Zig-Zag theory, the oddsmakers will adjust with worse lines on the team coming off a loss. Every half-point line moment matters as it decreases the win probability of that side covering the point spread. As more and more bettors employ the Zig-Zag approach, the value in the system will likely decline. I wonder if there will become a time where the betting value will become to fly the contrarian flag and bet against the zig-zag?The most important thing to consider when assessing past data is that it must be analyzed in relation to the point spread situation in question. Maybe a home favorite coming off a point spread loss by double-digits have covered the point spread in 28 of these last 32 situations — but if that home favorite is laying, say, 100 points, then they are not going to cover the point spread no matter who shiny the data mined angle is. Obviously, this example is exaggerated, but I do so to make this observation: there is a threshold as to when a past truth derived from empirical data will stop being a truth in the future given the changing expectations of the situation as demonstrated by the fluid point spread. Let’s look at how the Zig-Zag theory has done so far through four games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Overall, teams coming off straight-up losses in the previous playoff game this season have then covered the point spread in 11 of the 24 games. Or, put another way, Zig-Zag is 11-13 ATS in Games Two, Three, and Four this postseason. Sample size is always a consideration, but zombie auto bet Zig-Zaggers have not made money in these playoffs. Let’s look at the game-by-game breakdowns. In Game Two, teams off a straight-up loss in Game One are 4-4 ATS. In Game Three, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Two are 3-5 ATS. In Game Four, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Three are 4-4 ATS. In general, I am highly skeptical of silver bullet evidence to inform a situation in which to invest. The fluidity of the market makes such evidence short-term, at best. My handicapping approach is to assess and then analyze a wealth of evidence utilizing several different methods and approaches. My Reports are long to communicate this investment. Zig-Zag is certainly something I look at. I find the theory carries more weight when it combines with other intangibles such as team trends that help to expose a personality of a team.I will continue to assess how the Zig-Zag theory is working as the NBA playoffs move forward. Sharp bettors should already be exerted caution when considering the system. Sometimes the best answer to a Zig is to just pass. The day may come sooner rather than later that the expectation of a Zag from the betting market may create value to keep on Zigging. Best of luck — Frank.

CFB 2021: ACC Atlantic Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, May 31, 2021

ACC Atlantic Division:Boston College – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. This team strong offensively and has come a long way in the passing game. But their defense is still rebuilding in terms of schemes and personnel. Keep your eye on potential value with overs in their games. Clemson – Class of the ACC as per usual and a great shot at an undefeated regular season. Very tough opener against Georgia but if they can get past that it will be a great shot at perfection through November. Lost some great players of course but this program just at another level. Everyone knows this of course so will be hard to find betting value in their games. Florida State – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. The Seminoles are rebuilding talent level here because frequent coaching changes – last season was Norvell’s first – means that getting the right talent to match the schemes has been difficult. I expect the offense to be okay but the defense is definitely the heart of the rebuild so this is another team where we could see some potential value with overs in their games. Louisville – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. Coach Satterfield trying to get the right players for his schemes but this is still a work in process. It is a bad sign how this team regressed last season compared to his first season at the helm in 2019 but this team should bounce back a little. I like their defense a bit but do not trust this offense and this could be a team to keep an eye on for unders as a result. NC State – The biggest problem for the Wolfpack is they play in the same division of this conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd in the division. If they get strong play at the QB position this team can again score plenty of points. On defense they must get better, against the run in particular, though another concern I have here is that their schedule was rather easy last season. This year they have Clemson on their schedule. Syracuse – This team very likely to be at the very bottom of the standings. The Orange were so bad statistically on both sides of the ball and I just don’t see signs of any great improvement when you think about the competition level they face in the ACC. Also, the offensive line continues to be a concern for this program and so many keys to level of play begin in the trenches. Wake Forest – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. This team has a solid offense but a questionable defense (again) so this could be another program to watch for plenty of overs in their games. The Demon Deacons have good depth and experience with this year’s team and could continuity with Clawson at the helm. It all adds up to improvement if they could just be better defensively. The trouble too is the latter part of the schedule is tough so even a solid performance early on could become derailed as the season goes on.

NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After the 1st Round

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, May 31, 2021

One of the data items I track is Over/Under results per each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total, and other games in a series that are likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions as to when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, these data provide just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. Game Ones had three Overs and five Unders in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Game Twos had two Overs and six Unders in the first round.Game Threes had seven Overs and one under. Game Fours had four Overs and four Unders. Game Fives had two Overs and six Unders.Game Sixes had two Overs and three Unders. Game Sevens had one Over and one Under.These data offer a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers are of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. A thing to keep in mind with all NHL data so far this season is that every number has been produced from divisional contests. There has to be a game played out-of-division. I am interested in if the exclusive divisional schedules would result in more Unders or more Overs given the heightened familiarity between the teams. In the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, there were 21 Overs and 24 Unders. Let’s break that data down by division.North Division: four Overs, seven Unders. East Division: four Overs, seven Unders. Central Division: seven Overs, five Unders. West Division: six Overs, five Unders.I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.Best of luck — Frank.

It’s the Year of the Pitcher. Does that Mean to Play More Unders?

by Team Del Genio

Monday, May 31, 2021

Major League Baseball has already seen six no-hitters this season, and that does not even count Madison Bumgarner’s no-hitter in a seven-inning doubleheader game which MLB did not officially count as no-no since the game did not go nine innings. The MLB record for no-hitters in a season in the modern era is seven, which has previously occurred four times.Pitching numbers are up, and hitting numbers are down so far this season as we take a look at some data on Memorial Day. Entering the day, the across-the-league Earned Runs Average sits at 4.02. That is the league-wide ERA since 2015. Strike-out rates continue to rise as well. Pitchers are striking out 24% of the batters they face (as of 5/20). Pitchers struck out 23.1% of the batters they faced in 2019, and they struck out 23.4% of opposing hitters in 2020.The Year of the Pitcher is demonstrated in declining hitting statistics as well. The league-wide MLB batting average after Sunday (5/30 is .236. That is the lowest number since 1968, the most recent Year of the Pitcher. MLB lowered the height of the pitching mound after the dominance pitchers enjoyed over hitters that year. Teams are scoring 4.33 runs per game this season. That average is a decline from the 4.65 runs per game mark in 2020. In 2019, teams averaged 4.83 runs per game, so the decline in scoring is part of some larger trends. What is happening? Several reasons help explain these trends. Velocity rates from pitchers continue to rise. Starting pitchers and relievers are being asked to make fewer pitchers per appearance but to throw harder when they do. Spin rates are on the rise as well as analytics departments influence their teams to rely focus on this intangible. The rise of defensive shifts has made things even more difficult for hitters to generate base hits. With pitchers throwing more heat, batters are being instructed to attempt to hit more home runs to take advantage of the acceleration produced from the batted ball. Yet home run rates are down this season after a steady recent rise in that number. 1.2 homers are being hit per 9 innings this season, the fifth-highest mark of all-time. But there was an average of 1.34 home runs and 1.40 home runs hit per 9 innings in the previous two seasons. Changes to the baseball this season have played a role. The ball is slightly lighter after new production standards. The new ball is easier to throw but does not travel as far off the bat given the lighter mass. Given all this, should bettors be investing in more unders? The numbers do not bear this out. The under is 382-374-25 after Sunday’s games (as measured by VSIN). The oddsmakers appear to be ahead of the game when it comes to adjusting their numbers. There may be value in betting the over as the season moves on. Warmer weather tends to favor the hitter with the ball carrying farther in the warmer air.Good luck - TDG.

NHL 2nd Round Preview

by AAA Sports

Monday, May 31, 2021

We’ve got four very interesting series set for the second round of the NHL Playoffs. Three are already underway with the Islanders and Bruins tied 1-1 and the Avs and Lightning both out to 1-0 leads. Montreal vs. Winnipeg, a series few saw coming in the North Division, will get underway Wednesday. The Islanders were considered big underdogs to even their series against the Bruins. But they did it, winning Game 2 in overtime by a score of 4-3. Semyon Varlamov started in goal for the Isles in the win, an interesting decision seeing as how he was the starter for both first round losses against Pittsburgh. Rookie Ilya Sorkin was 4-0 in Round 1, but also lost Game 1 in Boston in what was a poor effort. The Game 2 win also snapped the Islanders’ four game losing streak to the Bruins. What’s interesting though is that NY won each of the season’s first five matchups. Game 2 was only the second loss for Boston this postseason.Colorado couldn’t have been more dominant in its 7-1 Game 1 victory over Vegas. They outshot the Knights 37-24. The Knights were coming off a Game 7 win over Minnesota while the Avalanche had swept their first round opponent, the St. Louis Blues. So the Avs haven’t lost in the playoffs yet. They have scored 27 goals in the five wins and allowed 8. This looks like the Stanley Cup favorite right now. But keep in mind Vegas has a tremendous home ice advantage and also finished tied (with Colorado) for the most points in the regular season. Game 2 is Wednesday and the Avalanche are big favorites on the money line.Tampa Bay, the reigning Stanley Cup Champions, is the lone road team to capture Game 1 so far in the second round. They beat Central Division champ Carolina 2-1 on Sunday. They did so despite being outshot 38-30. This series is considered much more “evenly matched” than either of the two discussed previously. Game 2 is Tuesday. The Lightning are allowing 37.9 shots/game in the playoffs, which is high. But they’ve scored three or more goals in every game but two. They’ve scored four or more goals four different times. But don’t sleep on a Hurricanes team that scored three or more goals in all six first round games. Tampa Bay has won the last four times it has been a playoff underdog.The final second round series is Montreal and Winnipeg, who were both upset winners in Round 1. But those respective series couldn’t have gone any different. The Canadiens rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to stun Toronto in seven games and won Game 7 on the road. Meanwhile, the Jets swept the Oilers. However, three of the four games went to overtime. One required coming back from a three-goal deficit and the series clincher went to triple overtime.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, and NHL Previews and Odds - 05/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Monday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, and MLB.The NBA playoffs have two games on the docket. Philadelphia visits Washington on TNT at 7:05 PM ET. The 76ers took a 3-0 lead in this series with their 132-103 victory over the Wizards on Saturday. Washington has lost six of their last nine games. Philadelphia is an 8.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 229.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Utah travels to Memphis in the nightcap on TNT at 9:35 PM ET. The Jazz took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 121-111 victory against the Grizzlies as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Memphis had won eight of nine games before losing the last two games in this series. Utah is a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.5. Two games are on the NHL playoff schedule. Toronto plays at home against Montreal in the seventh game of their opening-round North Division series on CNBC at 7:05 PM ET. The Canadiens forced a seventh game with their 3-2 victory in overtime against the Maple Leafs on Friday. Toronto is a -195 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Boston is at home against Carolina on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET. The Bruins won the opening game of this East Division finals series with a 5-2 victory on Saturday. The Islanders had their three-game losing streak end with the loss. Boston is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.Fourteen games are on the MLB slate. The New York Yankees play at home against Tampa Bay at 1:05 PM ET as a -107 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Minnesota visits Baltimore on ESPN as a -163 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Detroit visits Milwaukee at 2:10 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against Philadelphia as a -118 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. San Diego travels to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite. The Chicago White Sox visit Cleveland at 3:10 PM ET in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. San Francisco plays at home against Los Angeles against the Angels at 4:05 PM ET as a -128 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston hosts Boston on ESPN at 4:10 PM ET as a -111 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Oakland plays at Seattle as a -133 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta plays at home against Washington at 5;10 PM ET as a -171 money line favorite with a total of 9. The White Sox play the Indians in the second game of their doubleheader at 6:40 PM ET. Kansas City is at home against Pittsburgh on ESPN at 8:10 PM ET as a -173 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against St. Louis at 9:10 PM ET as a -182 money line favorite. The New York Mets play at Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -185 money line road favorite.

Sunday Night Baseball: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Preview, Odds and Prediction - 05/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 30, 2021

Sunday MLB ESPN Preview: Atlanta Braves at the New York Mets.The Atlanta Braves close out their weekend series in New York against the Mets at Citi Field for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET. After a rainout on Friday, the Mets won the opener of this series yesterday with a 13-2 victory. The club began the day second-to-last in runs-per-game but got home runs from Francisco Lindor, Jonathan Villar, James McCann, Billy McKinney, and Brandon Drury in the offensive barrage. New York has won four games in a row to raise their record to 25-20. They are 3.5 games up on Philadelphia and the Braves in the National League East. Manager Luis Rojas has struggled to fill out lineup cards this season with 16 players on the injured list. The Mets began the week having used 41 different players in their first 41 games. They only used 47 players all of last season. The franchise record for players used in a season is 56. Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil headline the list of players they are currently missing. Both players are out until June with hamstring injuries. First baseman Pete Alonso leads the team with six home runs. He is hitting .236 with 19 RBIs. Jonathan Villar has offered a spark getting into the lineup and batting leadoff. He has five homes and 13 RBIs to go along with five stolen bases and a .231 batting average. The Mets hope yesterday’s home run breaks Lindor out of a season-long slump. Their prized free-agent signing in the offseason is hitting only .219 with four home runs and 11 RBIs. As a team, New York is scoring 3.4 runs per game with a .224 batting average, .299 on-base percentage, and a .641 OPS.Jacob DeGrom takes the hill for the Mets with a 3-2 record with a 0.80 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP in seven starts. He returned from a stint on the disabled list with a side injury to pitch five innings where he allowed only one run against Colorado on Tuesday. He struck out nine batters. The New York bullpen has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.Atlanta managed only five hits yesterday. They are scoring 4.9 runs per game with a .235 batting average, .307 on-base percentage, and a .748 OPS. Ronald Acuna, Jr. has 15 home runs and 32 RBIs and a .278 batting average. Freddie Freeman has added 12 homers and 29 RBIs and a .239 batting average. The hot-hitting Austin Riley is batting .313 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs.The Braves are in third place in the NL East with a 24-26 record, 3 1/2 games behind the Mets. The defending division champions have not been over .500 all season. They outscored Pittsburgh last weekend by a 33-3 margin in the series to erase their negative run differential, but they have fallen back to a -2 net run differential after their two-game losing streak. Atlanta placed Marcell Ozuna on the disabled list with a finger injury. During yesterday’s loss, he was arrested for aggravated assault to add further complications regarding when he will get back on the field. The Braves also have their opening day catcher, Travis D’Arnaud, on the 60-day disabled list with a thumb injury.Max Fried makes the start tonight. He has allowed only one earned run in four straight starts after pitching seven innings last Sunday in a win against Pittsburgh. The left-hander has a 2-2 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in seven starts. The Atlanta bullpen has a 4.49 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.New York has won three of the four meetings this season. They have outscored the Braves by a 24 to 11 run margin.BookMaker lists the Mets as a -137 money line favorite, with the total set at 5.5.Computer prediction: New York Mets 5 Atlanta Braves 0

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