Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Articles

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/06/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 06, 2022

The Monday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the best-of-seven series in the Western Conference finals between the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers on TNT at 8:07 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 3-0 series lead with their 4-2 victory on the road on Saturday. Colorado is a -130 road favorite with an over/under of 7 (all odds from DraftKings).The Monday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:40 PM ET. The Reds lost their fourth game in their last five on Sunday in a 5-4 loss at home to Washington. Their record dropped to 18-35 on the season. The Diamondbacks lost their third game in their last four with their 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. They have a 26-29 record. Hunter Greene pitches for Cincinnati against Madison Bumgarner for Arizona. Cincinnati is a -125 money line favorite with the total set at 9.5. The Texas Rangers visit the Cleveland Guardians at 7:10 PM ET. The Rangers lost their fourth game in their last five in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in 10 innings on Sunday. Their record fell to 25-28 with the loss. The Guardians won their fifth game in their last six with a 3-2 victory at Baltimore yesterday. They raised their record to 24-25 with the victory. Texas pitches Jon Gray against Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. Two games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Kansas City to play the Royals. The Blue Jays were on an eight-game winning streak but they have since lost two of three after an 8-6 loss at home to Minnesota yesterday. They have a 31-22 record. The Royals lost their sixth game in their last seven with their 7-4 loss to Houston on Sunday. Their record fell to 17-35 with the setback. Ross Stripling pitches for Toronto against Daniel Lynch for Kansas City. The Blue Jays are a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners. The Astros won their sixth game in their last seven with the victory on the road against the Royals on Sunday. They improved their record to 35-19 with the win. The Mariners won their third game in their last four with their extra-inning victory against the Rangers yesterday. Houston pitches Cristian Javier against Seattle’s Robbie Ray. Houston is a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels are on an 11-game losing streak after their 9-7 loss on the road at Philadelphia on Sunday. Their record has fallen to a 27-28 mark. The Red Sox won their fourth in a row with their 5-2 victory at Oakland yesterday. They have app their record back to .500 at 27-27. Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for Los Angeles against Michael Wacha for Boston. The Angels are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.The New York Mets are at San Diego to play the Padres at 9:40 PM ET. The Mets beat the Dodgers, 6-5, in 10 innings on Sunday to improve their record to 37-19. The Padres won their third straight game with their 6-4 victory in 10 innings at Milwaukee yesterday. They have a 33-21 record. New York pitches Carlos Carrasco against San Diego’s Blake Snell. The Mets are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.

Read more

NBA Playoffs 1991-2022: ATS Win Percentage of SU Winner; Average Line Differential

by Al McMordie

Monday, Jun 06, 2022

In Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors blew out the Boston Celtics, 107-88.  The key was to the victory was the Warriors’ 35-14 advantage in the third quarter.  And that was the 91st different quarter in these 2022 Playoffs where one team had a double-digit margin over the other.  That’s the all-time record for such blowout quarters, exceeding the previous high of 90 quarters in the 2017 playoffs.  The upshot of this is that we've seen a whole host of blowout games, and this NBA Playoffs is likely to set the record for the largest average point spread differential for its games (dating back to 1991).  Not surprisingly, we've had very few hotly-contested games.  And the straight-up winner has covered the spread in a relatively-high percentage of games.  The past two seasons have two of the four-highest ATS win percentages (for the SU winner) in the last 32 Playoff seasons (the 2021 season saw the SU winner go 81-4 ATS, for a 95.2% ATS record - the all-time high).To put this current season in an historical perspective, let's review the data from 1991 to 2022 (the 2022 data goes through June 5). -- Editor's note:  this data has now been updated to go through the end of the 2021-22 season, on June 16.NBA Playoffs, Year by Year ATS record of the team which won straight-up.And the average point spread differential of each playoff game.1991:  54-12-2, 81.8%, avg LD 9.251992: 57-14-2, 80.2%, avg LD 8.561993:  61-14-1, 81.3%, avg LD 7.891994:  63-14-0, 81.8%, avg LD 7.591995:  59-12-2, 83.0%, avg LD 10.281996:  52-16-0, 76.4%, avg LD, 9.971997: 52-18-2, 74.2%, avg LD, 8.021998: 57-13-1, 81.4%, avg LD, 9.141999: 54-12-0, 81.8%, avg LD, 9.502000:  57-15-3, 79.1%, avg LD, 8.772001:  59-10-2, 85.5%, avg LD, 9.692002:  50-19-2, 72.4%, avg LD, 8.132003: 75-11-2, 87.2%, avg LD, 9.022004:  62-17-3, 78.4%, avg LD, 8.092005: 75-8-1, 90.3%, avg LD, 9.622006:  70-16-3, 81.3%, avg LD, 9.282007:  61-14-4, 81.3%, avg LD 8.292008:  71-13-2, 84.5%, avg LD, 10.272009:  67-16-2, 80.7%, avg LD 10.422010:  74-7-1, 91.3%, avg LD 10.062011:  64-13-4, 83.1%, avg LD 8.462012:  66-15-3, 81.4%, avg LD 7.582013: 72-13, 84.7%, avg LD, 9.932014:  73-14-2, 83.9%, avg LD, 9.762015:  66-14-1, 82.5%, avg LD, 9.792016:  75-11, 87.2%, avg LD, 11.522017:  62-16-1, 79.4%, avg LD, 10.742018:  70-12, 85.3%, avg LD, 10.572019:  71-10-1, 87.6%, avg LD, 10.052020:  70-10-3, 87.5%, avg LD, 9.932021:  81-4, 95.2%, avg LD, 11.212022:  78-9, 89.6%, avg LD 11.89The average LD in Playoffs, 1991-2022, is 9.51The SU winner in a Playoff game has gone 2078-412-50, 83.4% ATSThis past regular season (2021-22), the average line differential was 10.62.In the 2020-21 regular season, the average line differential was 10.70.Indeed, the past two regular seasons have seen a big jump in this metric.  Historically, in the regular season, from 1990-91 to 2021-22 the average line differential was just 9.19.  And the past two post-seasons rank among the top 3 Playoffs (along with 2016) with the greatest line differentials.What immediately jumps out is how the points of an NBA point spread are becoming less "valuable."  And, of course, this has implications for teaser bets.  Say, for example, a sportsbook offers odds of -120 on a 2-team, 5-point NBA teaser.  That would have a much different value in 2022, when the average game in the regular season fell 10.62 points away from the point spread than even just a few years ago.Of course, based on this data, one should also consider the (negative) implications of buying half-points.  And given the relatively few times (13 of 168 the past two post-seasons) a Playoff game has resulted in an underdog losing SU, but covering the point spread, one may want to consider -- if one likes the underdog -- taking it on the moneyline rather than the point spread.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds 06/05/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jun 05, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The finals in the National Basketball Association continues with the second game of the NBA finals between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors on ABC at 8:10 PM ET. The Celtics took a 1-0 lead in this series with a 120-108 upset victory on the road against the Warriors as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Golden State is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 215.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN at 3:07 PM ET. The Rangers took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 3-2 victory at home against the Lightning on Friday. Tampa Bay is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees host Detroit on Peacock at 11:35 AM ET. Jordan Montgomery pitchers for the Yankees against Rony Garcia of the Tigers. New York is a -310 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels with the Phillies pitching Kyle Gibson against the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval. Philadelphia is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cleveland travels to Baltimore with the Guardians pitching Zach Plesac against an Orioles’ starting pitcher yet to be determined. Toronto is at home against Minnesota at 1:37 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Kevin Gausman against the Twins Devin Smeltzer. Toronto is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox play at Tampa Bay with Lucas Giolito pitching for the White Sox against Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays. Cincinnati hosts Washington with the Reds going with Luis Castillo against the Nationals Patrick Corbin. Cincinnati is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. San Francisco visits Miami with Jakob Junis pitching for the Reds against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Marlins.Two MLB games begin at 2:10 PM ET. Houston plays at Kansas City with the Astros pitching Framber Valdez against the Royals Jonathan Heasley. Houston is a -235 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Milwaukee is at home against San Diego with Eric Lauer on the mound for the Brewers against Mike Clevinger of the Padres. Milwaukee is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Texas hosts Seattle at 2:35 PM ET. The Rangers pitch Martin Perez against the Mariners George Kirby. Texas is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta visits Colorado at 3:10 PM ET. Charlie Morton pitches for the Braves against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies. Atlanta is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 12. Oakland is at home against Boston at 4:07 PM ET. The A’s pitches Frankie Montas against the Red Sox’s Rich Hill. Oakland is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets at 4:10 PM ET. Julio Urias pitches for the Dodgers against Trevor Williams of the Dodgers. Los Angeles is a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field at 7:08 PM ET. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals against Justin Steele of the Cubs. St. Louis is a -140 money line road favorite.

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 04, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the best-of-seven series in the Western Conference finals between the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers on TNT at 8 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 4-0 victory at home against the Oilers on Thursday. Colorado is a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 7 (all odds from DraftKings).The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit at 1:05 PM ET. Luis Severino pitches for the Yankees against Beau Brieske of the Tigers. New York is a -290 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. St. Louis plays at Chicago against the Cubs in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:20 PM ET. The Cubs send out Matt Swarmer to pitch against a Cardinals pitcher yet to be named. Toronto plays at home against Minnesota at 3:07 PM ET. Jose Berrios pitches for the Blue Jays against Dylan Bundy of the Twins. Toronto is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 9. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. Arizona visits Pittsburgh with the Diamondbacks pitching Zach Davies against the Pirates Roansy Contreras. Cleveland plays at Baltimore with Triston McKenzie taking the ball for the Guardians against Tyler Wells of the Orioles. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Texas is at home against Seattle with Glenn Otto pitching for the Rangers against Marco Gonzales for the Mariners. Texas is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. Boston travels to Oakland at 4:07 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Nick Pivetta against the A’s Paul Blackburn. Boston is a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Five MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. San Francisco is at Miami with Logan Webb pitching for the Giants against Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. Both teams have prices at -110 with a total of 7. Houston plays at Kansas City with the Astros sending out Luis Garcia to face the Royals Kris Bubic. Milwaukee hosts San Diego with Aaron Ashby on the mound for the Brewers against Mackenzie Gore of the Padres. Milwaukee is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Cincinnati is at home against Washington, with the Reds pitching Tyler Mahle against the Nationals Erick Fedde. Tampa Bay hosts the Chicago White Sox with Drew Rasmussen pitching for the Rays against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Tampa Bay is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games begin at 7:15 PM ET for Fox’s regional televised coverage. The Los Angeles Angels are at Philadelphia with Michael Lorenzen pitching for the Angels against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. The Cardinals play at Wrigley Field against the Cubs in the second game of their doubleheader with Caleb Kilian being called up to pitch for Chicago against a starting pitcher yet to be named for St. Louis. Atlanta travels to Colorado at 9:10 PM ET. The Braves turn to Spencer Strider to pitch against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Atlanta is a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the New York Mets at 10:10 PM ET. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against David Peterson of the Mets. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. 

Read more

Previewing the Tampa Bay Lightning/New York Rangers Playoff Series

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Jun 03, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning had eight full days off since completing their four-game sweep of the Florida Panthers in the second round of the NHL playoffs. We were concerned that it was near impossible for head coach Jon Cooper to come close to replicating the playoff experience in practices preparing for this game. Sure enough, the Lightning looked a step behind the Rangers in Game 1 of this series on June 1st in a 6-2 loss on the road at Madison Square Garden. Tampa Bay had won eight of their last ten games and fifteen of their last twenty games. Yet they have won just once in their last seven games after winning eight or more of their last ten, and they have won twice in their last nine games after winning fifteen or more of their last twenty games. Perhaps a letdown was inevitable? Yet the Tampa Bay Lightning were 14-0 in the previous two seasons coming off a loss in the playoffs which is why they are the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The resiliency of this team to pick themselves up after a loss, adjust to the things that are not working, and move forward is a trademark of a champion. Head coach Jon Cooper’s team has continued to demonstrate this quality this season. After losing Game 1 on the road, 5-0, at Toronto in their first round of the playoffs, they respond in Game 2 by soundly defeating the Maple Leafs in their own building, 5-3. The Lightning later returned to Toronto for the seventh game of that series to beat them, 4-3, in overtime. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed six goals in Game 1 on Wednesday which is the most he has ever given up in a playoff game. Yet he has a .924 save percentage in his career in the postseason for a reason. In their four-game sweep last round against the explosive Florida Panthers, Vasilevskiy posted a .978 save percentage by stopping 150 of the 154 shots he faced. The Lightning are still without forward Brayden Point with a leg injury. He was their leading goal scorer in the last two postseasons. Tampa Bay played their best hockey at home this year where they had a 31-9-6. On the road, the Lightning had a solid but not spectacular 28-17-2 record. In five playoff games at home, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been nearly unstoppable with a 1.91 goals-against average and a .942 save percentage. Yet on the road in six starts, those numbers drop to a 2.51 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage which are still good numbers but offer the Rangers reasons to be optimistic. If the Rangers are going to make this a long series, they can need to take advantage of the potential rust that Tampa Bay may have. New York has responded to Gerard Gallant’s coaching. They are 5-0 in potential elimination games this postseason after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to beat Carolina on the road in Game 7, 6-2, on Monday. After a flat effort in Game 5 in Raleigh that drew Gallant’s ire, the Rangers scored five goals and six goals in their dominant victories against the Hurricanes.The team will be very confident with goalie Igor Shesterkin who has a 2.04 goals-against average and a .949 save percentage in seven playoff starts at home this season after the first two rounds. Those numbers are very similar to the 1.85 goals-against average and .940 save percentage in thirty games that Shesterkin played at Madison Square Garden in the regular season. After losing their first game at home in the playoffs to Pittsburgh in that triple-overtime affair that may have tired Shesterkin out for the next few games, the Rangers have since won all six of their games on home ice. He stopped 37 of the 39 shots he faced in Game 1 to continue his strong play.Gallant’s team had two distinct advantages in the first game of this series which helped them beat the Lightning by four goals. After playing every other day for the last month having survived two seven-game series, they will be in rhythm and not miss a beat regarding the intensity of the playoffs. Second, they will bring a defensive focus and physicality to their game that neither Toronto more Florida had in the first two rounds of the playoffs against the Lightning. New York caught a break by hosting an opponent that had not played since May 23rd, yet now they find themselves in unfamiliar territory. This is the first time that Gerard Gallant’s team has had a lead in a playoff series. They lost Game 1 in the opening round against Pittsburgh and in the second round against Carolina. The previous time that the Rangers were playing a game where they were not trailing but not staring at the potential elimination with a loss, it was Game 5 against the Hurricanes when they only attempted 17 shots in a 3-1 loss. New York has won all three of their games since then, yet they have only won twelve of their last thirty games when on a three-game winning streak. Gallant demanded more energy and activity since that game, and the Rangers have found success by being in attack mode when the puck is in the neutral zone. Yet Tampa Bay can counter this tactic which was certainly a central topic for Cooper and his coaching staff in practice yesterday. The Lightning should clamp things down in the middle to force the Rangers’ skaters wide or compel them to chip and chase the puck. Tampa Bay has defended against this approach before in their back-to-back championship runs. Game 2 appears to still be a game New York needs to win. If the Lightning rebound to steal the second game, they accomplish their goal of seizing home-ice advantage as they go back home. Yet even with a loss, Tampa Bay still has three of the remaining five games in front of their home fans, and the old adage is that a playoff series does not start until a team loses at home.Good luck - TDG.

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jun 03, 2022

The Friday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 2 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:07 PM ET. The Rangers took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 6-2 victory in Game 1 on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is a -135 money line road favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. St. Louis visits Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. The Cardinals pitch Miles Mikolas against the Cubs’ Marcus Stroman. Both teams are a -110 money line favorite. Two games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. San Francisco plays at Miami with Alex Cobb pitching for the Giants against the Marlins Elieser Hernandez. San Francisco is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Cincinnati hosts Washington with the Reds pitching Mike Minor against the Nationals Josiah Gray. Cincinnati is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. Arizona plays at Pittsburgh with Merrill Kelly pitching for the Diamondbacks against J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Cleveland plays at Baltimore with Shane Bieber pitching for the Guardians against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. The Los Angeles Angels are at Philadelphia with Chase Silseth pitching for the Angels against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Phillies. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit with the Yankees pitching Gerrit Cole against the Tigers' Elvin Rodriguez. New York is a -350 money line favorite at Play MGM with a total of 8. Minnesota travels to Toronto at 7:07 PM ET. Chi Chi Gonzalez is set to start for the Twins against Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay hosts the Chicago White Sox at 7:10 PM ET. The Rays pitch Shane McClanahan against the White Sox’s Vince Velasquez. Tampa Bay is a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. Houston visits Kansas City with Jose Urquidy of the Astros pitching against the Royals Brad Singer. Houston is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee hosts San Diego with the Brewers pitching Corbin Burnes against the Padres Joe Musgrove. Milwaukee is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Atlanta travels to Colorado at 8:40 PM ET. Max Fried pitches for the Braves against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Atlanta is a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 11.5. Boston visits Oakland at 9:40 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the A’s James Kaprielian. Boston is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the New York Mets at 10:10 PM ET. Tyler Anderson pitches for the Dodgers against Chris Bassitt of the Mets. Los Angeles is a 155 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.

Read more

NBA Finals Betting Trends & Angles: Boston vs. Golden State

by Oskeim Sports

Thursday, Jun 02, 2022

The NBA Finals are here and each year it presents bettors with numerous opportunities for betting success. With a potential seven games on tap, bettors can make or break an NBA betting season. When thinking about betting the NBA Finals, there are a number of things to consider. Here are a few. Fade the Game 7 Winner So, Boston had to go seven games with Miami to get to the NBA Finals. Teams that win a Game 7 do not do so well in Game 1 of their following series. The last 81 times this has happened in the NBA playoffs, the Game 7 winners have lost 49 times (61 percent). Those teams also only win their next series 41 percent of the time. With Steve Kerr as their coach, Golden State is 21-2 SU in playoff Game 1s. The Warriors are also 9-2 ATS when playing as a single-digit home favorite in Game 1 of a playoff series. Golden State hasn’t played since May 26 and that rest advantage may work in their favor. Game 1 Winners Speaking of Game 1, there is an NBA playoff trend worth noting. In NBA playoff history, teams that win Game 1 of a series go on to win that series 73.3 percent of the time. The trend holds up in the NBA Finals too. The winner of Game 1 in the NBA Finals goes on to win the title 70.7 percent of the time. Last year, the Phoenix Suns won Game 1 and 2 before losing four straight to Milwaukee. From 2017 to 2020, the team that won Game 1 went on to win the NBA championship.NBA Finals Totals It’s no secret that the Under is a trend during the NBA playoffs. The pace of games slows down tremendously as teams understand that they face elimination. Usually, teams average about 2.5 fewer possessions per game during the postseason. That means fewer opportunities to score which translates into fewer points. Prior to this postseason, the previous seven NBA playoffs combined saw the Under cash nearly 55 percent of the time. Should the NBA Finals go to a final Game 7, the Under is even more profitable. In Game 7s, the Under hits over 61 percent of the time. There have only been two NBA Finals in the last decade that have gone a full seven games. Series Prices Since 1990, only four NBA Finals have been priced anywhere close to this year’s series – Warriors -160, Celtics +140. Ironically, the Game 1 winner – 1995 Magic and 2014 Spurs – went on to win just two of the four series. Based on the results of Games 1 and 2, series prices will adjust. With a Boston loss in Game 1, their new series odds may move closer to +200. With another loss in Game 3, those odds could approach +300. Bettors considering backing a team that is down in a series should only do so because that team is playing far below expectations. The bottom line is that bettors can often find better series pricing after a few games have been played.The Zig Zag Zig Zag theory in betting is essentially just betting the opposite of what happened in the previous game. The thought is that teams will bounce back quicker in the playoffs knowing if they don’t they may be eliminated. Blindly following this strategy in the NBA Finals doesn’t really work, but there is one situation where there is a trend. NBA playoff teams seeded in the top-3 – which both Boston and Golden State are – do very well against the spread when coming off a Game 1 loss. Since 2005, the Game 1 loser has come back to cover the spread in Game 2 64 percent of the time (30-17 ATS). 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jun 02, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The finals in the National Basketball Association begins with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Boston Celtics on ABC at 9:10 PM ET. The Warriors reached the NBA finals by winning their fifth game in their last six with their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday to end that series in five games. The Celtics won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory at Miami as a 3-point road favorite on Sunday to win that series in seven games. Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 212.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 2 of the best-of-seven series in the Western Conference finals between the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers on TNT at 8:07 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 1-0 lead in the series with their 8-6 victory against the Oilers on Tuesday. Colorado is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Angels play at New York against the Yankees at 1:05 PM ET in the opening game of their doubleheader. Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Minnesota visits Detroit at 1:10 PM ET. The Twins pitch Chris Archer against the Tigers Alex Faedo. Minnesota is a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Tampa Bay travels to Texas at 2:05 PM ET. Corey Kluber pitches for the Rays against Taylor Hearn of the Rangers. Tampa Bay is a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Toronto hosts the Chicago White Sox at 3:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Alek Manoah against the White Sox’s Johnny Cueto. Toronto is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. San Francisco plays at Miami at 6:40 PM ET. Alex Wood pitches for the Giants against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. Cincinnati is at home against Washington with the Reds pitching Graham Ashcraft against Joan Adon of the Nationals. Cincinnati is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Seattle plays at Baltimore with Chris Flexen pitching for the Mariners against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Seattle is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The Yankees are at home against the Angels in the second game of their doubleheader as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Milwaukee hosts San Diego at 7:40 PM ET. The Brewers pitch Adrian Houser against the Padres Sean Manaea. Milwaukee is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta visits Colorado at 8:40 PM ET. Ian Anderson of the Braves pitches against Austin Gomber of the Rockies. Atlanta is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the New York Mets at 10:10 PM ET. The Dodgers pitch Tony Gonsolin against the Mets Taijuan Walker. 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 01, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 1 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:07 PM ET. The Lightning are on a six-game winning streak after sweeping Florida in four games with a 2-0 victory at home to end that series on May 23rd. The Rangers have won four of five after beating Carolina on the road in Game 7 of that series on Monday. Tampa Bay is a -135 money line road favorite with the total set at 5.5. The Wednesday schedule in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Kansas City with the Guardians pitching Konnor Pilkington against the Royals Brad Keller. Cleveland is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets play at home against Washington with Carlos Carrasco pitching for the Mets against Evan Lee of the Nationals. New York is a -255 money line favorite with a total of 9. San Diego visits St. Louis at 1:15 PM ET. The Padres pitch Yu Darvish against the Cardinals Dakota Hudson. San Diego is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.Miami plays at Colorado at 3:10 PM ET in the opening game of their doubleheader. Antonio Senzatela pitches for the Rockies against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Marlins. Houston travels to Oakland at 3:37 PM ET. The Astros pitch Justin Verlander against the A’s Cole Irvin. Houston is a -225 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta plays at Arizona at 3:40 PM ET. Kyle Wright pitches for the Braves against Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks. Atlanta is a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Philadelphia hosts San Francisco at 6:05 PM ET. The Phillies pitch Aaron Nola against the Giants Carlos Rodon. Philadelphia is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Marlins are on the road against the Rockies in the second game of their doubleheader at 6:10 PM ET. Two more MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. The New York Yankees are at home against the Los Angeles Angels on FS1 with Nelson Cortes pitching for the Yankees against Reid Detmers of the Angels. New York is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Seattle visits Baltimore with the Mariners pitching Robbie Ray against the Orioles Kyle Bradish. Seattle is a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Toronto is at home against the Chicago White Sox at 7:07 PM ET. Hyun Jin Ryu pitches for the Blue Jays against Michael Kopech of the White Sox. Toronto is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Minnesota travels to Detroit with Bailey Ober pitching for the Twins against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Minnesota is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Boston hosts Cincinnati with Garrett Whitlock pitching for the Red Sox against Hunter Greene of the Reds. Boston is a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games start at 8:05 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at Chicago against the Cubs with Jason Alexander pitching for the Brewers against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Tampa Bay is at Texas with Jeffrey Springs pitching for the Rays against Jon Gray for the Rangers. Tampa Bay is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Pittsburgh at 8:10 PM ET. The Dodgers pitch Mitch White against the Pirates Jose Quintana. Los Angeles is a -235 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.

Read more

Previewing the Edmonton Oilers/Colorado Avalanche Playoff Series

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

It is rare for the oddsmakers to install the over/under number at 7, and it is even rarer for the oddsmakers to move past 6.5 to 7s in the conference finals in the NHL playoffs. Yet this is where the oddsmakers are between these two high-powered scoring teams that both averaged 4.3 goals per game in the first two rounds of the playoffs. After the Avalanche took the opening game of this series on Tuesday by an 8-6 score, this series seems destined to have the over/unders installed at 7 or even, daresay, 7.5 the rest of the way. The Edmonton Oilers reached the Western Conference finals with a 5-4 victory in overtime at Calgary on Thursday to end that series in five games. The Oilers scored five times for the third time in four games with that win. They have scored at least four goals in eight of their twelve playoffs games, and they have scored at least five goals in half of those twelve games in the postseason. Edmonton is led by the best player in the NHL in Conner McDavid who has scored seven times in the playoffs and assisted on another 19 goals in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He is joined by Leon Draisaitl who has generated 26 points in the first two rounds of the playoffs as well. Evander Kane has thrived playing on the top line with that pair. He had 12 goals in the first two rounds with a remarkable 23.5% shooting percentage in the postseason. Zach Hyman added another eight goals in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Yet the Oilers were giving up 3.1 goals per game even before Colorado scored eight times against them in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. Mike Smith has put up good numbers with a .927 save percentage after the first two rounds yet he has committed several miscues that have cost his team goals. The Flames scored at least three goals in four of the five games against them. Edmonton began the playoffs with a seven-game series with the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers shut out the Kings, 2-0, in Game 7 to win the series and advance to face Calgary. Edmonton had an 8-4 record after the first two rounds of the playoffs with 52 goals and 37 goals allowed in those twelve games.Colorado moved past St. Louis with a 3-2 victory on the road on Friday to end that series in six games. There three previous games with the Blues had at least seven combined goals scored, with two of those games having nine combined goals scored. The Avalanche had scored 10 power-play goals in the playoffs with a 34.5% conversion rate after the first two rounds of the playoffs. Colorado has scored at least five goals in five of their ten playoff games, and they have scored six or more goals three times. Nathan MacKinnon leads the way with eight goals and five assists in their ten games. Mikko Rantanen has 11 points yet has only scored once despite scoring 36 goals in the regular season. Yet Colorado had allowed 3.2 goals per game in their last five games against St. Louis with goalie Darcy Kuemper posting a .857 save percentage in his last three games. The season-ending injury to defenseman Samuel Girard in the fourth game of the series with the Blues makes the challenge to stop their opponents even stiffer.The Avalanche began the playoffs with a four-game sweep of the Nashville Predators. Colorado scored 43 times in their ten games in the first two rounds of the playoffs while giving up 27 goals. The oddsmakers have installed them as a money line favorite of -160 or higher in all ten of their playoff games. The results of Game 1 suggest the oddsmakers will keep posting an over/under of 7 in this series. Yet bettors should be aware that of the three goals scored in the third period, one was a late empty netter by the Avalanche. There may be unders coming on the horizon, especially when combined scores of six will pay off under tickets. The Oilers appear capable of staying competitive in this series as well in this showdown between McDavid and MacKinnon after almost forcing overtime after trailing 7-4 after two periods.Good luck - TDG.

Read more

Will Home Runs and Scoring Stay Down All Summer?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Home runs are down and so is scoring after the first quarter of the Major League Baseball season. Is this a trend that we will continue to observe all summer, or are these initial numbers an aberration?There are a few things that are different this MLB season. The baseballs appear to once again be changed. Yet the biggest complaints appear to be coming from pitchers who are finding more of the baseballs with indented laces that make the ball harder to grip. That would seem to benefit the hitters. All 30 stadiums have installed humidors this season, up from the ten stadiums that had humidors last year. Humidors are climate-controlled chambers where the baseballs are stored to prevent them from drying out. A dryer baseball has more bounce off the bat, so baseballs that have been stored at average humidity helps the pitchers.The wild card this season was the abbreviated three-week spring training that became necessary to play a complete 162-game season after the start of the season was delayed by the labor lockout. The shorter preparation time would appear to negatively impact pitchers’ usual development and progress in getting to their full velocity. Yet perhaps the hitters were hurt by fewer at-bats in the spring?The hitting numbers are clearly down. Teams are averaging 4.18 runs per game (through May 22nd, courtesy of Todd Zola from ESPN for all the seasonal data in this article). That is a six-year low, with the scoring average peaking in 2019 during that span with a 4.63 runs per game average. There are 0.97 home runs per game, another six-year low after peaking in 2019 with 1.33 home runs per game on average. The league-wide batting average of .236 is a six-year low as well after 2016 and 2017 had league-wide batting averages of .251. The humidors seem to be having their intended effect. The average flyball distance this season is 314.4 feet, down from 318.6 feet last year. The six-year high took place in 2019 when the average fly ball traveled 323.5 feet. The average exit velocity for fly balls is 92.1 miles per hour this season after the previous three years had average exit velocities of 92.3 mph, 92.3 mph, and 92.5 mph last year. Yet there is evidence that these lower-scoring trends are turning around. When comparing the April 7th opening day to April 30th data to the May 1st through May 22nd numbers, the hitting numbers are up. Home runs are up 15.6% this month, the largest increase from April in the last six years. Batting averages are up 4.2% this month, the second-biggest jump in May in the last six seasons behind last year’s 5.4% improvement in May. Runs are up 7.3% this month, the second-highest increase behind last year’s 10.3% rise in scoring in May.These numbers are important for us when considering over/unders in baseball. VSiN reports that the Under is 362-321-38 through May 30th this season. While that 53% percentage to the under is consistent with the lower hitting numbers this season, it is interesting to note that the under was hitting at a 60% clip a month ago. As the May hitting numbers improved, more overs were coming in. Given these recent improvements in hitting numbers, bettors should beware of playing unders exclusively because of the negative impact of the league-wide humidors. Perhaps the hitters were farther behind than the pitchers after all after the three-week spring training, yet the batters have finally caught up.Good luck - TDG.

Read more

NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After Rounds One and Two

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Once again, I want to return to assessing totals trends in the Stanley Cup playoffs. One of the data items I track is Over/Under results for each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total and other games in a series that is likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions regarding when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, this data provides just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. Game Ones had four Overs and four Unders in Round One of the Stanley Cup playoffs. In the second round, there was one Over and were three Unders in Game One. That leaves the running total for the 2022 NHL playoffs with five Overs and seven Unders. Last postseason, Game Ones had seven Overs and eight Unders. The grand total for Game Ones in the last two playoff seasons is now 12 Overs and 15 Unders.  Game Twos had four Overs and four Unders in the first round this postseason. There was then one Over and three Unders in the second round. That leaves the running totals for the 2022 postseason at five Overs and Seven Unders. In last year’s playoffs, there were four Overs and 11 Unders in Game Two. The grand total for Game Twos in the last two years in the postseason is nine Overs and 18 Unders. Game Threes had six Overs and two unders in Round One of the playoffs this year. In Round Two, there was one Over and three Unders in Game Threes. The running numbers in the 2022 playoffs for Game Threes at seven Overs and five Unders. The Over was 9-5-1 in last year’s 15 Game Threes. The grand total for Game Threes in the last two postseasons is 16 Overs, 10 Unders, and one push.Game Fours had five Overs and three Unders in Round one of this year’s playoffs. In Round Two, there were two Overs and two Unders this postseason. There have been seven Overs and five Unders in Game Four in these playoffs. Last year, the Over was 6-7-2 in Game Fours. For the last two playoffs, there have now been 13 Overs, 12 Unders, and one push. Game Fives had five Overs, one Under, and one push in the opening round of the playoffs this season. In Round Two, there were two Overs and one Under. Games Fives have seen seven Overs, two Unders, and one push in 2022. Last year, the Over was 4-9-1 in the 14 Game Fives that were played. Overall, there have been 11 Overs, 11 Unders, and one push in the last two playoffs for Game Fives. Game Sixes had five Overs and two Unders in Round One this postseason. In Round Two, there was one Over and one Under. So far this postseason, there have been six Overs and three Unders in Game Sixes. Last year, the Over was 4-3-2 in Game Sixes. In the last two playoffs, there have been 10 Overs, six Unders, and two pushes. Game Sevens had one Over, three Unders, and one push in the playoffs this season. The lone Game Seven in the second round went Over the Total. For 2022, there have been two Game Seven Overs, three Game Seven Unders, and one push. There was one Game Seven Over last postseason and two Game Seven Unders. Over the last two playoffs, there have been three Overs in Game Seven, five Game Seven Unders, and one push.This data over a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers continue to be of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. Perhaps this data would offer more value if the closing number is separated from the game number in the series, although that will make the sample sizes even smaller. By the semifinals of the NHL playoffs last year, both series were seeing consistent totals of 5s. A year later, there have been 44 playoff games in the first two rounds where the oddsmakers had the total set at 6.5. In Round One, there were 17 Overs and 13 Unders in the 30 games with the total at 6.5. In Round Two, there were seven Overs and seven Unders in the 14 games with the total at 6.5. That leaves the Over with a 24-20 mark in the 44 playoff games this year with a total of 6.5.I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.Best of luck — Frank.

Read more

Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Links

Big Al's Sports Picks Info

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2025 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.