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Ness Notes: Long Way to CBB's Final 4

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The college football season is entering Championship Saturday (December 4) and the final CFP rankings come out Sunday, when its version of a 'Final 4' will be revealed. The bowl season opens December 17. The CFP semifinals are set to be played on Friday, December 31 and the national championship game will be played on Monday, January 10 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Meanwhile, somewhat 'flying under the radar,' the 2021-22 college basketball season tipped off on Tuesday, November 9, meaning Tuesday, November 30 marks the beginning of its fourth week. Selection Sunday isn't until March 13, 2022, when 32 automatic bids will be handed out, along with 36 "at large" ones. The Final 4 is set for Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) for April 2 and 4. That's a L-O-N-G way off but let me take 'a peek' at what's happened so far.The AP's preseason No. 1 team was Gonzaga, to no one's surprise. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few has led Gonzaga to 21 straight NCAA berths in his 22 years (2020 tourney was cancelled), doing everything BUT win a national championship. However, he's led the Bulldogs into the title game TWICE in the last four seasons. Last year's loss was a 'killer,' as Gonzaga was No. 1 wire-to-wire and at 31-0, was looking to match Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, which was the last team to go unbeaten (32-0) and win the title. However, 73 years after it last played for a national title, Baylor 'jumped all over' the Bulldogs early in the game and never looked back in an 86-70 victory. It was Baylor's first national title and extinguished Gonzaga’s ambitions for end-to-end perfection.Sliding in behind Gonzaga at No. 2 was UCLA, which lost 93-90 in OT to Gonzaga in the national semifinals, on Jalen Suggs' 37-foot three-pointer. Counting down the rest of the preseason top-10 found Kansas at No. 3, Villanova at No. 4, Texas at No. 5, Michigan at No. 6, Purdue at No. 7, defending champion Baylor at No. 8, Duke at No. 9 and Kentucky at No. 10. Duke and Kentucky are college basketball 'Blue Bloods' but Duke was coming off a 13-11 season (first non-NCAA tourney team since 1995) and Kentucky was coming off a 9-16 year. In particular, the Wildcats opened last season as a preseason top-10 team but finished with the program's worst record in over 30 years and recorded the WORST record by an AP preseason top-10 team since the poll was started back in 19611Checking in on the latest AP poll (Monday, Nov 29), NINE of the preseason top-10 teams remain in the top-10. The lone exception is Michigan (preseason No. 6), which is 4-2 with losses to Seton Hall (67-65 at home) and 80-62 to Arizona in Las Vegas. Michigan currently ranks 24th but note that 6-0 Arizona is up to No. 11 under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd, who made his poll debut the previous week. As for Seton Hall, the Pirates lost to Ohio St in its next game after beating Michigan but at No. 25, is the "last time in."Last week began (Tuesday) with then-No. 1 Gonzaga trouncing then-No. 2 UCLA 83-63 in Las Vegas but Friday, "The Dookies," in Coach K's final season, beat Gonzaga 84-81 in Las Vegas. So guess which school 'popped up' as No. 1 in Monday's AP poll? 7-0 Duke, the school everyone loves to hate, jumped from No. 5 to No. 1, a position Coach K is VERY familiar with. Coach K has now been ranked No. 1 for the 127th time in his career, ahead of some guy named John Wooden (121), who I'm told, coached UCLA back in the 1800s (I think around the Civil War?). FYI...Duke has been ranked No. 1 more than any other school (145 times), with UCLA checking in at 134 No. 1 rankings.Gonzaga dropped to No.3 in the latest rankings, while UCLA fell to No. 5. "Movin' on Up" is 6-0 Purdue at No. 2, giving the school its highest ranking since the 187-89 season. That team won the Big 10 at 16-2 (no conference tourney) and finished the regular season 27-3. It was a No. 1 seed but lost in the Sweet 16, finishing 29-4 (remember Gene Keady?). Moving in at No. 4 (up from No. 6) is defending champion Baylor, which is 7-0 after winning The Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. The rest of the top-10 features No. 6 Villanova (despite a 4-2 record), No. 7 Texas (4-1), No. 8 Kansas (5-1), No. 9 Kentucky (5-1) and No. 10 Arkansas (6-0).6-0 Florida made the biggest jump, moving up NINE spots to No. 14, while 5-1 Memphis had the biggest fall, dropping NINE spots to No. 18, after losing to unranked Iowa State by 19 points in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game. However, Iowa St is one of three new teams in the recent AP top-25. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger took over an Iowa St program coming off a two-win season that included going 0-18 in Big 12 play and has the Cyclones at 6-0. 5-2 Michigan State joined the poll at No. 22  after beating UConn on the way to the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game, while 5-1 Wisconsin jumped in at No. 23 after winning the relocated Maui Invitational in Las Vegas. Falling out were No. 14 Illinois, No. 16 St Bonny's (Bonnies were ranked in the preseason poll for the first time since 1971!) and No. 25 Xavier.Let's see how long Duke can hold its No. 1 ranking. The Blue Devils get tested Tuesday, Nov 30 at Ohio St in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Then again, let me note that Duke is 19-3 all-time in the Challenge! Gonzaga may have fallen from No. 1 to No. 3 but the Bulldogs have now been ranked in 99 consecutive polls, the longest active streak by a WIDE margin. Villanova owns the second-longest streak at 44, followed by Alabama (41) The only other schools with streaks of 20 or more consecutive rankings are Houston (30) and Texas (21).Take note that NONE of the four schools with more than 2,000 career wins are among the above list. Entering the 2021-22 season, Kentucky led all schools with 2,3327 career wins, followed by Kansas (2,323), North Carolina (2,294) and Duke (2,2114). Join me in the middle of next week when I'll break down the final CFP standings/rankings.Good luck...Larry

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Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

Every week in the NFL it seems like at least one top team is losing a game they should not. The Titans have lost to the Jets and the Texans. The Bills lost to the Jags. The Bucs even dropped a dud against the Football Team. Seeing this along with many other similar games makes people wonder who is actually legit out of the top teams? The gambling answer: Good teams win, great teams cover.  Top records ATS through week 12: Green Bay           10-2-0   Arizona                 8-3-0Dallas                    8-3-0      New England      8-4-0Detroit                  7-4-0Buffalo                 6-4-1Indianapolis        7-5-0      Tennessee          7-5-0       Essentially this tells us which teams have over performed their expectations. It shows team’s ability to keep games close against quality opponents while not playing down to the level of bad teams. The Packers, Cardinals, and Cowboys top the list and have proven to be the most consistent teams in the NFL against the spread. Other quality teams have struggled with consistency like the Buccaneers (5-6-0) and the Rams (4-7-0).  In 2020, 3 of the teams that made it to conference championship weekend finished with top 5 records ATS during the regular season (Chiefs were the one team not to). Similarly, in 2019, both Super Bowl teams finished in the top 5 which gives a good indicator that being able to cover the spread consistently proves that you are an elite team.  There is still plenty of time for these teams to shift around but currently the Packers and Cardinals seem to be in Control in the NFC while New England and Buffalo control the AFC. This matches both the eye test as well as the ATS rankings. All 4 of those teams rank top 5 in total defensive points allowed and have shown the ability to get big stops when needed.  The Bills and Patriots meet twice in the next four weeks and will determine who wins the AFC East and gains control in the conference. The Titans need to go back to the drawing board during their bye week and figure out what to do without King Henry. Currently both conferences are open for the taking but watch ATS records for a bit deeper look at who is playing better than expected. 

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NCAA Basketball Rankings: Overrated/Underrated

by Nelly's Sports

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

NCAA Basketball Rankings: Overrated/Underrated While the college football rankings will provide endless debate in the next week, it is time to start dissecting the college basketball rankings now that most teams have a few meaningful games under their belts. Here is a look at a few teams checking in a bit too high and a few teams that may be underrated at the end November in the current AP Poll.  POSSIBLY OVERRATED: #2 Purdue: The Boilermakers have wins over North Carolina and Villanova but those results may not be quite what those program’s reputations suggest at least at this point in the season. North Carolina is in a major transition season and lost by 17 to Tennessee the day after giving Purdue a good test. That game was very tight late despite the nine-point final, even with the Tar Heels missing one of their top players. Purdue’s win over Villanova featured an epic comeback in the final nine minutes with hot 3-point shooting while Villanova uncharacteristically shot 53 percent on free throws. Purdue will be a good team this year but a loss or two in December looks possible with five top 100 games upcoming as this is not a team that is going to create separation in a tough top tier of the Big Ten.  #10 Arkansas: The Razorbacks are 6-0 but without a top 50 win and they struggled vs. Cincinnati in their most difficult game so far this season, winning by six but trailing in the final minutes. Arkansas was handed a 32-13 edge in free throws in that game for a fortunate result in Kansas City. Arkansas could wind up 12-0 before the SEC season as the schedule is incredibly weak outside of a game with Oklahoma in early December. Eric Musselman’s team made the Elite 8 last season but wasn’t far from being eliminated in each of the first three games last March as some of his game management has been questionable. The starting five is very small by major conference standards with the addition of Miami transfer Chris Lykes and this team has shot below 30 percent on 3-point shots this season.  #17 Connecticut: The Huskies finished 15-8 last season before being bounced in the Round of 64 as a #7 seed. This year’s team is 6-1 but the only meaningful wins were both overtime results, beating Auburn in double-OT and VCU in OT while going 2-1 in the Bahamas. So far this season Connecticut has shot more than five percent better from 3-point range compared to last season and has been a big beneficiary of turnovers, something that isn’t typical of Dan Hurley defense. The Huskies could climb further with two light games this week but tests vs. West Virginia and St. Bonaventure lurk as difficult games ahead of the Big East season.  #19 Iowa State: The Cyclones picked up two double-digit wins in Brooklyn last week surprising Xavier and Memphis to reach 6-0. Iowa State also beat Oregon State early in the season for a promising start for T.J. Otzelberger in his first season with the program, coming from UNLV. Two wins have been against teams outside the top 300 however and the offensive numbers have been marginal for this group. Iowa State had 33 free throw attempts for a big edge vs. Memphis and shot 50 percent from 3-point range vs. Xavier, things that are not likely to be repeated often for this group that is still in a significant transition season.  POSSIBLY UNDERRATED:  #15 Houston: One loss has bumped the Cougars down in the rankings despite five top 150 caliber wins including likely top 50 results against Virginia and Oregon. Houston has endured a tough non-conference path and simply got caught in Las Vegas with a red-hot shooting game from Wisconsin, who won the Maui Invitational. Houston shot 53 percent from the line in that game and was out of sync on offense but still nearly rallied for an epic comeback, losing by just two despite trailing by 20 at halftime. This squad has the makings of a team capable of another Final Four run and they will have a prominent opportunity to show it playing at Alabama next week.  #20 USC: Evan Mobley is impossible to replace but Isaiah Mobley has done his part while Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis joins a veteran roster with great size. Free throw shooting has been an adventure this season, but the Trojans are 6-0 with only two home games. The only high-quality win was a 15-point win over San Diego State with a dominant defensive performance. USC may be overshadowed in Los Angeles with UCLA’s Final Four run and early season win over Villanova, but it won’t be a surprise if USC is ahead of UCLA in the Pac-12 standings by the end of the season. The Trojans have a favorable pair of games to open the conference season and should be in good form before the tougher games on the schedule hit in late December and early January.  Unranked Illinois: The Illini have started just 4-2 but this team should not be discounted as a Big Ten and national contender again this season. Kofi Cockburn’s three-game suspension was well publicized but four other regular contributors have missed time as Brad Underwood has had six different starting lineups in six games. The ACC Challenge, two Big Ten games, and a big game with Arizona are the next four games on the schedule as Illinois will have an opportunity to deliver a few quality wins and once the roster issues are sorted out this team still has a very high ceiling.  Unranked Louisville: The Cardinals are getting penalized for a loss at home to Furman in early November. That game was an overtime game where Furman had a big edge at the line and made 12 3-point shots. Furman has been an elite Southern Conference team for the past four years under Bob Richey and the Paladins nearly beat Cincinnati and Alabama in early season action last year, while beating Villanova in November 2018. Louisville has two top 50 wins away from home with decisive results in the Bahamas and they should provide Michigan State a test this week. Overall, the non-conference path is quite tough for the Cardinals relative to their ACC peers as this group may be underrated ahead of the conference season. 

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MLB 2022: Early Look at Off-Season Pitching Moves

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

MLB 2022: Early Look at Off-Season Pitching MovesThis article is being written right at the tail end of Thanksgiving weekend in the US. That means it has only been one month since the last Major League Baseball season ended with the Atlanta Braves crowned as champions after defeating the Houston Astros in 6 games. While it may seem early to be talking MLB, we are only a couple months away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. That said, some of the moves already taking place in this off-season have been big ones.In no particular order, here are a few moves that caught my eye and are worth mentioning:Andrew Heaney signed by Dodgers. I know what you are thinking here is that this is not a big deal but the Dodgers, like the Cardinals, are one of those teams that have a strong tendency to pick up pitchers that have struggled elsewhere and then been able to get them to thrive in their organization. There are no guarantees in anything of course but having a lefty that becomes revitalized in new surroundings can be a big plus as strong southpaw starters aren’t exactly that prevalent these days! Eduardo Rodriguez signed by Tigers. Of course he should be better pitching in Detroit’s home park than in the bandbox known as Fenway Park and with shoddy infield defense behind him there. This Tigers team is showing gradual improvement and getting a lefty that can help stabilize and balance the pitching rotation should help Detroit continue to make steps in the positive direction.Noah Syndergaard signed by Angels. Yes the injury questions will linger but this is a huge move that gives Los Angeles a shot to really make a move in the AL West if he is healthy. Keep in mind he is getting further and further away from the Tommy John surgery he had and this is a pitcher capable of being quite dominant when healthy. If he gets anywhere close to the form he had in the 2016 to 2018 seasons, this is going to be a huge boost for baseball fans in Anaheim! Aaron Loup signed by Angels. Indeed Los Angeles not only getting former Mets for their starting rotation but also their bullpen and Loup had fantastic numbers for New York  last season in 65 appearances! Other significant signings included:Reliever Kendall Graveman (solid bullpen numbers with 2 clubs last season) signed by White Sox. Starting pitcher Steven Matz signed by Cardinals (where so many pitchers flourish after landing!). Reliever Hector Neris (held hitters to .202 BAA last season) signed by Astros. Starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (off huge season with Giants) signed by Blue Jays. Toronto now with a formidable rotation that includes Gausman, Jose Berrios, veteran Hyun Jin Ryu and young breakout talent Alek Manoah.  

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NBA 2021-22: Top 10 In-season Trends

by Al McMordie

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

We're more than 20 games into the NBA season, so it's a great time to take stock of the trends that have developed over the first six weeks.  Here are our Top 10 most interesting ones.First, unrested teams that had to travel between games (i.e., they didn't play at home on back to back nights) have gone 22-31-1 ATS vs. rested opponents, including a woeful 7-18 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up loss.  Second, NBA teams off games where they failed to cover the point spread by nine (or more) points have gone 32-14 ATS, including 8-0 ATS if installed as an underdog of more than seven points, and 11-1 ATS vs. unrested foes.Third, teams off an upset loss have gone 15-6 ATS vs. opponents off an upset win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when laying seven (or more) points, as well as 11-1 ATS at home.Fourth, revengers have gone 38-30 ATS, including 14-6-1 ATS as a home favorite, as well as a perfect 5-0 ATS if they lost the first meeting by 29 (or more) points.Fifth, favorites off back-to-back losses have gone 30-19 ATS, including 19-8 ATS if they owned a win percentage greater than .380.Sixth, road underdogs off back to back home wins have gone 2-10 ATS, including 0-8 ATS if our road team owned a winning record, as well as 0-10 ATS if its opponent owned a W/L percentage of .400 (or better).Seventh, the Unders have gone 168-132, including 15-5 Under if the O/U line was greater than 227.Eighth, NBA teams off a game where they scored 90 (or less) points have gone 26-17 ATS vs. foes that didn't score 90 (or less) in their previous game, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -6.5 points.Ninth, rested favorites have gone 26-16 ATS in division contests, including 10-1 ATS if their opponent was off a win by more than five points.And, tenth, home favorites, off a home game, have gone 29-7-1 ATS vs. opponents off a win, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge, and also 13-1 ATS if our home team was off a home loss.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 11/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB.Week 12 in the National Football League concludes with the Seattle Seahawks visiting Washington to play the Football Team. The Seahawks have lost five of their last six games after their 23-13 upset loss to Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Russell Wilson struggled for the second straight week by completing 14 of 26 passes for only 207 yards. They fell to 3-7 with the loss. The Football Team upset the Panthers in Carolina last week, 27-21, as a 3-point favorite. Taylor Heinicke was efficient in completing 16 of his 22 passes for 206 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Washington improved their record to 4-7 with the victory. Seattle is a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 47 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Philadelphia hosts Orlando at 7:10 PM ET as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 206. Miami plays at home against Denver as a 7-point favorite with a total of 208. Three games tip-off at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. Houston hosts Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 216. Minnesota plays at home against Indiana as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 218.5. Two NBA games start at 8:40 PM ET. Dallas is at home against Cleveland as a 7-point favorite with a total of 209.5. Washington travels to San Antonio as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215. Utah plays at home against Portland as a 7-point favorite with a total of 223. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against New Orleans as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 210.5. The National League Hockey League has four games on its slate. Seattle plays at Buffalo at 7:08 PM ET as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games drop the puck at 7:38 PM ET. Montreal is at home against Vancouver as a -130 money line with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg hosts Arizona as a -330 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Calgary plays at home against Pittsburgh at 9:08 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Four games are on national television in college basketball. The HBCU Challenge at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, concludes with two games on ESPNU. The championship game features Norfolk State as a 5-point favorite facing Grambling at 6 PM ET with the total set at 139.5. Morgan State plays Hampton at 8:30 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5.Two games are on ESPN2 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Virginia hosts Iowa at 7 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 130. Illinois plays at home against Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 139.

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Sports Betting: The Value of Niche Sports

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Nov 28, 2021

The Value of Niche Sports in Sports BettingThis article is being written right at the tail end of Thanksgiving weekend in the US. That means it was an extremely busy weekend with a ton of sports action. This time of year you have NBA and College Basketball going and also NFL and College Football still going on. Football – College and Professional along with Basketball – College and Professional are the Big Four in sports wagering. However, handicapping other sports is a key to year round profit opportunities. One of those is still quite big as it is Major League Baseball and that keys the livelihood of year round sports bettors during the summer months. The key though is more than just baseball to think about when you think of other sports. Hockey is not followed by nearly as many bettors but, a money line sport just like baseball, there are plenty of opportunities on a nightly basis during the season and, including post-season, this is a sport with a full schedule that has games occurring in all but 3 months of a typical year! The covid pandemic has impacted our world greatly and it resulted in a complete sports shutdown for a period of 4 months form mid-March to mid-July in 2020. During that time I started studying the Premier League and have now added that version of “football” from across the pond to my sports wagering repertoire as it was one of the first leagues to come back after the sports shutdown.The 8th and final of 8 sports I handicap is Canadian Football. Why? Well normally a good chunk of the season is during the slower time of year in our sports wagering world as the season usually begins in June and is running strong through the slower months of July and August when the big sports like American Football and Basketball are in their off-seasons. Keep in mind also that there are just 9 teams currently in the Canadian Football League. You can very closely keep up with all 9 of these teams and find solid value on a week to week basis.In summary, the key point here is that the “other” sports can absolutely be a “value add” to your year-round bankroll pursuit and I personally have found the niche sports to be quite special in that regard. Yes, football (college and NFL) and basketball (college and NBA) will always get the most attention but don’t forget that attention also leads to tighter lines from the odds makers as well! That is why sometimes the best value is often found in the niche sports which is why I am always sure to focus attention on those sports too as it can truly be a big bankroll booster! 

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World Cup Report

by Ben Burns

Sunday, Nov 28, 2021

International soccer is heating up. Countries are battling hard to qualify for the next World Cup. The big event will be held in Qatar, in November/December 2022. It'll be just the second time that a WC will be held in Asia. Recall that South Korea and Japan co-hosted the 2002 tournament. It'll also mark the first time that the WC will be hosted by an Arab nation. Let's get caught up.SOCCER IN THE WINTER? In addition to being the first tournament in this part of the world, WC 2022 will also be the first to be held in the late fall. Every previous WC has been played in May, June or July. Personally, though I know it couldn't have been in Qatar, I'd rather it be played in the summer. We've got enough sports going on in November and December. LAST TIME WITH 32 TEAMSAs per usual, only 32 countries will qualify for the WC. That makes "just getting there" an accomplishment. After this, however, the field will expand to include 48 teams.ITALY/PORTUGAL: THERE CAN BE ONLY ONEWhen you think about international soccer, two of the first countries that come to mind are Italy and Portugal. Yet, one of them won't be going to Qatar. The Italians are 4-time champs. They failed to qualify for the 2018 WC but bounced back to win the Euro Cup in 2020. Meanwhile, Portugal won the 2016 Euro Cup. These two European soccer powers received an unfortunate draw though and will have to face each other, only one of them qualifying. Italy coach Roberto Mancini acknowledged. "It's not a great draw and it could have gone better. Just like we wanted to avoid Portugal, they would have wanted to avoid Italy."HERE COMES CANADAIn Canada, as is the case in the United States, the women's soccer team has achieved far more success than the men's team. The Canadian women are the defending Olympic Champions. They're led by one of the best and most recognizable players (Sinclair) of all-time and have won multiple medals. The men, on the other hand, rarely ever even make it to the World Cup. In fact, they've only ever done so once. That was back in 1986 and they failed to score a single goal. The men's team is currently riding high though and appears to be in great shape to return to the world stage. The Canadians sit in first in CONCACAF and the top three countries from that group will qualify. Even if Canada slipped all the way to fourth, it would have a strong chance to win its way in by facing a team from the Oceania region in an International Playoff. The Canadians aren't thinking about fourth though. This is their strongest team ever. Fresh off a victory over Mexico, in the snow, they're looking to win the group. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAB, NFL, NBA, CFL, EPL and NHL Previews and Odds - 11/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 28, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, CFL, and the EPL.Week 12 in the National Football League continues with 11 games. Seven games kick off at 1 PM ET. Atlanta visits Jacksonville as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 45.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). New England hosts Tennessee as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. Cincinnati plays at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Houston is at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Carolina visits Miami as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 42. Tampa Bay travels to Indianapolis as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 53. Philadelphia plays at the New York Giants as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 45. Three games kick off in the second window of afternoon games. The Los Angeles Chargers visit Denver as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47. Two games start at 4:25 PM ET. San Francisco hosts Minnesota as a 3-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Los Angeles Rams play at Green Bay as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 47. Baltimore plays at home against Cleveland on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 47.Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Golden State in Los Angeles against the Clippers at 3:40 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 215.5. Milwaukee travels to Indiana at 5:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 217. Two games tip-off at 6:10 PM ET. Toronto hosts Boston as a 2-point favorite. Memphis is at home against Sacramento as a 1.5-point favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Detroit at 9:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 216. The National Hockey League has six games on the slate. Carolina is at home against Washington at 1:08 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Minnesota plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three games in the NHL drop the puck at 7:05 PM ET. Boston hosts Vancouver as a -245 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. New Jersey is at home against Philadelphia as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Chicago plays at home against San Jose as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Toronto visits Anaheim at 8:08 PM ET as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The New York Islanders/New York Rangers game got postponed due to the COVID outbreak with the Islanders.Nine games are on national television in college basketball. The ESPN Events Invitational concludes with four games at the HP Fieldhouse in Kissimmee, Florida. Drake plays North Texas on ESPNU at 10:30 AM ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 127. Kansas battles Iona on ESPN at 1 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. The finals of this event take place on ESPN2 at 4 PM ET with Belmont playing Dayton as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 143.3 Alabama plays Miami (Florida) on ESPNU at 6:30 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 153. DePaul plays Eastern Michigan in the Blue Demon Classic on FS1 at 2 PM ET. The Blue Devils are a 12-point favorite with a total of 147. The HBCU Challenge at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, has two games. Hampton plays Norfolk State on ESPN2 at 8 PM ET. Grambling goes against Morgan State on ESPNU at 10:30 PM ET. The divisional semifinals in the playoffs in the Canadian Football League have two games. Hamilton hosts Montreal in the East Division Semifinals on ESPN2 at 1 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Saskatchewan plays at home against Calgary in the West Division Semifinals on ESPN News at 4:30 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42. Matchweek 13 of the English Premier League concludes with five matches on Peacock. Four games start at 9 AM ET. Brentwood hosts Everton as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Tottenham visits Burnley as a 0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Leicester City plays at home against Watford as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City is at home against West Ham United as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Chelsea is at home against Manchester United at 11:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 11/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 27, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.Week 13 in the college football regular season concludes with 45 games between FBS opponents. Eleven games kick off the card from noon ET to 3 PM ET. Seven games are on national television starting at noon ET. Ohio State visits Michigan on Fox as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 64.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Georgia plays at Georgia Tech on ABC as a 35-point road favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Florida hosts Florida State on ESPN as a 3-point favorite with a total of 59. Wake Forest travels to Boston College on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 64. Navy is at Temple on ESPNU as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 43. Baylor plays at home against Texas Tech on FS1 as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 52. Houston is at Connecticut on the CBS Sports Network as a 32-point road favorite with a total of 53.5.Twelve games begin the 3:30 PM ET to 4 PM ET window of games. Five games are on national television at 3:30 PM ET. Penn State travels to Michigan State on ABC as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 52. Alabama plays at Auburn on CBS as a 20.5-point road favorite with a total of 57. Oregon hosts Oregon State on ESPN as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 61. Purdue is at home against Indiana on FS1 as a 15-point favorite with a total of 50.5. Marshall plays at home against Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 74.5. Three games are on national television at 4 PM ET. SMU hosts Tulsa on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 62. Wisconsin visits Minnesota on Fox as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 39. Louisiana-Lafayette plays at home against UL-Monroe on ESPNU as a 22-point favorite with a total of 54.5. Twelve NCAAF games close out the card starting with two games on national television at 7 PM ET. Texas A&M plays at LSU on ESPN as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47. West Virginia travels to Kansas on FS1 as a 15.5-point road favorite with a total of 56. Louisville plays at home against Kentucky on ESPN2 as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 57. Two games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Oklahoma State hosts Oklahoma on ABC at 7:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Memphis is at home against Tulane on ESPNU as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. Notre Dame travels to Stanford on Fox at 8 PM ET as a 20.5-point road favorite with a total of 53.5. Nevada plays at Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 57. UCLA is at home against California on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. BYU visits USC on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 64.5. Eight games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Philadelphia is at home against Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Two games tip-off at 7:40 PM ET. Atlanta plays at home against New York as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 217.5. Brooklyn hosts Phoenix as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 220. Three more NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Cleveland is at home against Orlando as a 7.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Charlotte visits Houston as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 221. Miami plays at Chicago as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 213. Dallas hosts Washington at 8:40 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Utah is at home against New Orleans at 9:10 PM ET as a 13-point favorite with a total of 216. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Florida plays at home against Seattle at 6:08 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Four games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. Pittsburgh hosts Montreal as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Vegas is at home against Edmonton as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against Ottawa as a -220 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Detroit plays at home against Buffalo as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games in the NHL start at 8:08 PM ET. Dallas visits Arizona as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. St. Louis is at home against Columbus as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 6. Colorado hosts Nashville at 9:08 PM ET as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Calgary plays at home against Winnipeg at 10:08 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Five games are on national television in college basketball. The final of the Baha Mar Hoops Challenge at the Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, Bahamas, takes place on the CBS Sports Network at 10 AM ET. Maryland plays Louisville as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 138. FS2 broadcasts four NCAAB games. Providence hosts Saint Peter’s as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 127.5. St. John’s plays at home against the New Jersey Institute of Technology at 4 PM ET. Creighton is at home against SIU-Edwardsville at 6 PM ET as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 138. Marquette hosts Northern Illinois at 8 PM ET as a 21-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Matchweek 13 in the English Premier League begins with five matches. Arsenal plays at home against Newcastle United on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Three matches start at 10 AM ET. Crystal Palace is at home against Aston Villa on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Liverpool hosts Southampton on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Wolverhampton visits Norwich City on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2. Brighton and Hove Albion plays at home against Leeds United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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College Football's Towel Tosser

by Tom Stryker

Friday, Nov 26, 2021

Every sport has one.  That team that gets down to their final game and simply wants nothing more than the season to come to an end.  There could be a number of reasons why – injuries, poor play, bad luck and even terrible coaching.  Regardless, this towel-tosser can provide us with a number of solid money-making opportunities.   On this short holiday week, I took a quick look at the Team Stryker Database at college football teams that were playing in their last game.  My first thought was to take a stone-cold loser and see how they performed against a team that was going places.  It took a little elbow grease.  But I was able to come up with a tremendous college system that we will definitely be able to use to turn a profit.  Check out this gem: Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college football home team playing in their last regular season game provided they own a team won/loss percentage less than .333, take the field off two or more straight up losses and are lined up against an opponent that arrives off a SU and ATS win.  41-Year ATS Record = 59-27-1 ATS for 68.6 percent.  This Week’s Play’s = MIAMI FL, HOUSTON, and NOTRE DAME  This is truly a simple set of parameters that churns out winner after winner.  There are a couple of pieces that we can add to this puzzle that make the situation even more profitable.  Provided our “play against” host is priced as an underdog or a favorite of -4 or less and is not off a blowout loss of 38 points or more, this system falls to a jaw-dropping 16-49-1 ATS.  The Cougars and Fighting Irish apply to this tightener. There is one more parameter that can be added to that last situation that really makes this system pop.  With our 16-49-1 ATS in hand, this handicapping tool falls to a disturbing 8-35 ATS provided our “play against” home team carried a won/loss percentage of .250 or better a season ago.  Only one host fits this negative tightener – Stanford.  Good luck with Notre Dame on this holiday weekend!

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Big Ten Draw in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Nov 26, 2021

Big Ten Draw in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge  After the chaos of the Thanksgiving week tournaments, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge provides compelling matchups next week in this year’s 14-game draw. A reliable event of interest that often signals the start of the college basketball season in earnest, here is a quick look at this season’s pairings from the Big Ten perspective for games Monday, Nov. 29 to Wednesday, Dec. 1.  Monday Iowa at Virginia: Iowa has quietly started the season 5-0 after being in the headlines a lot last season in an uneven 22-9 season that ended abruptly with a Round of 32 blowout loss to Oregon as a #2 seed. Sophomore Keegan Murray leads this year’s team and Iowa remains one of the highest scoring teams in the nation. This will be a big test however as the Hawkeyes have had a very light early-season schedule and are yet to play a road game. The line on this game will likely be near-even as Iowa’s offense will face the usually elite Virginia defense.  CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 50% Notre Dame at Illinois: Illinois has already lost twice this season while the roster has been in flux in several games with a few injuries and the suspension for the first three games for Kofi Cockburn. The Illini entered the NCAA Tournament as one of the overall favorites last March but lost in the Round of 32 for a disappointing finish. Ayo Dosunmu is in the NBA now but there is still a strong roster in place for Brad Underwood. Turnovers and free throw shooting have been problem spots for Illinois so far this season as the defense has held up its end but the offense has been hard to count on. Losses away from home to Marquette and Cincinnati are not overly damaging but the Illini are a risk to continue to be overvalued: CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 75% Tuesday Clemson at Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights were a Round of 32 NCAA Tournament team last year just like Iowa and Illinois but Rutgers will have a hard time living down the collapse against Houston, the team that eventually made the Final Four after delivering a great comeback to beat the Knights. Rob Harper and Geo Baker are familiar leaders for Rutgers this season but the 3-2 start has offered plenty of concern, with losses to DePaul and Lafayette. Rutgers has shot below 25 percent from 3-point range so far this season as the offense has really struggled. Clemson has had some up-and-downs as well but the losses came in close games to much better teams than Rutgers lost to. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 45% Duke at Ohio State: Ohio State may have a bit of a break in this scheduling as Duke will be coming off Friday’s huge national game with Gonzaga in Las Vegas before traveling to Columbus. Ohio State was upset in the Round of 64 as a #2 seed in one of many failures for the conference last March. The Buckeyes have EJ Liddell back and he has been among the most productive players in the nation so far. Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler also joins the starting five along with freshman Malaki Branham as the Buckeyes have some questions to answer still this season. Ohio State is 4-2 with a nice win over Seton Hall but two narrow losses away from home to top 40 caliber teams. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 45% Florida State at Purdue: Purdue has started the season 5-0 with notable wins over North Carolina and Villanova in close games in Connecticut in the Hall of Fame Classic. The offense has tremendous numbers this season including scoring at least 80 points in every game and all five wins have been top 200 foes. The depth and size for Purdue will attract some attention for the Boilermakers to be among the Big Ten favorites this season. Purdue won’t draw a top ACC contender in this pairing but Florida State beat Purdue two years ago in non-conference play and the Boilermakers lost to Miami in this event last season. Florida State will be one of the few teams with a size edge against Purdue and the 5-1 start has featured good defensive numbers so far. RayQuan Evans missed the last game for Florida State and will impact the number on this game. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 80% Minnesota at Pittsburgh: The Gophers are quietly 5-0 under new head coach Ben Johnson. The schedule has not been difficult with no top 100 results but that won’t change this week drawing a Pitt squad sitting towards the bottom of the ACC. This is almost a completely different team from last season as Eric Curry is the long holdover in the starting lineup as Johnson has filled the roster with transfers from all over the country. The offensive efficiency has not been as strong as last season’s team so far but the defense has made some noise with most strong performances. 5-0 could swing the other quickly for this group with Mississippi State next weekend plus starting the Big Ten season with Michigan State and Michigan in the first two games. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 55% Indiana at Syracuse: In what was a great season for the Big Ten last year outside of the NCAA Tournament results, Indiana struggled falling far from its typical place as one of the prominent programs in the conference. Archie Miller’s fifth season in Bloomington should draw elevated expectations and this was a competitive game that had three overtime losses last season, including losing to Florida State on the road in this event. ACC transfer Xavier Johnson is now the leader of this team as this is a rather inexperienced group but the Hoosiers have started the season 5-0 including a win over St. John’s. This game is going to be the first road game of the season however. Syracuse has drawn a tough path and has two losses already but this has been an excellent shooting team and is always a challenge to play. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 50% Northwestern at Wake Forest: The Wildcats were 9-15 last season for Chris Collins and only returns two starters with a couple of transfers out of Evanston. So far so good for the Wildcats however with a 5-1 start and the only loss coming in a close game with Providence away from home. Heading to Wake Forest is a manageable draw for the Wildcats as Wake Forest has started 5-0 but through an incredibly weak schedule under Steve Forbes. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 55% Wednesday Wisconsin at Georgia Tech: The Badgers had a huge Thanksgiving week, delivering three excellent wins to win the Maui Invitational in Las Vegas, including the notable upset over Houston. Johnny Davis had a star-making tournament and he missed the only loss for Wisconsin, a five-point home defeat to Providence. As usual the defense has been excellent and Wisconsin takes good care of the ball, while being an exceptional free throw shooting team so far this season. Georgia Tech has won five straight since losing the season opener but none of the wins offer great substance with the only top 200 win coming against Georgia. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 55% Louisville at Michigan State: The Spartans have had five top 100 games already as while the 5-2 record has been a slight disappointment, the defeats have come against Kansas and Baylor, elite national title contenders. Wins over Loyola-Chicago and Connecticut are quality results and the Spartans have featured a top tier defense so far this season. 3-point shooting has been a problem as have turnovers for this veteran roster joined by freshman Max Christie. Louisville had a nice win over Mississippi State on Thanksgiving and this will be a second straight Big Ten foe after facing Maryland over the weekend.  CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 75% Miami at Penn State: Penn State has its first big test coming up facing LSU before this game as the Nittany Lions lost to Massachusetts in its only noteworthy early season game. Micah Shrewsberry is the team’s new coach coming from Purdue and with NBA experience as an assistant with the Celtics for several years. The roster from last season mostly was retained as Penn State is one of the most experienced teams in the nation filled with upperclassmen. Miami has had mixed results and is a bit of a wild card at this point and 3-point shooting has been a problem sot on both sides of the ball. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 65% Michigan at North Carolina: The Wolverines have two losses already and only one top 100 win as it has been a shaky start for the Wolverines against very high expectations. Michigan has top 15 efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball as the losses were puzzling. 3-point shooting and free throw shooting have been poor so far for Michigan and turnovers have been an issue as newcomers Caleb Houstan and DeVante’ Jones try to fit into the lineup. North Carolina lacks any win of substance but the Tar Heels played Purdue very tough in a non-conference loss. Hubert Davis leads the Tar Heels now and his players are finding good looks with strong shooting rates so far. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 65% Nebraska at NC State: Fred Hoiberg’s first two seasons in Lincoln have not been successful but this year’s team is already halfway to last season’s win count. None of those wins were top 200 results and Nebraska has a loss outside the top 200. 3-point shooting has been very poor for the Huskers so far but the rest of the offensive numbers offer some promise with three newcomers joining the starting five this season. There is good size on this team but it is a young group without much experience playing together. NC State didn’t make the NCAA Tournament last season but should be a threat this season. The only loss came in a close game vs. Oklahoma State as this could be an overlooked team in the ACC for Kevin Keatts. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 30% Virginia Tech at Maryland: Mark Turgeon’s team has back-to-back ACC draws as this game comes after facing Louisville in the Bahamas. Maryland has struggled with its outside shooting through a rather easy non-conference path but this is a top 50 team nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency. The loss came at home against George Mason and this will be a difficult draw even with home court advantage. Mike Young’s Virginia Tech team is a tough matchup and the 3-point shooting numbers on both sides of the ball sharply favor the Hokies. The Hokies are coming off tournament play in Brooklyn for a taxing week on the road to help Maryland’s cause. CHANCE OF BIG TEN WIN: 50% The Big Ten should be favored in eight of 14 games in this event and with a few other toss-up games the chances for the conference to win the series is high. The Big Ten has won the even the past two seasons going 7-5 last year and 8-6 in 2019 but the ACC has had the overall edge since the event started in 1999. The Big Ten has seen a few of its high profile teams disappoint so far but the matchups appear to favor the Big Ten this week.     

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