NCAA Basketball Championship Contenders
by ASA, Inc.
Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS Did you know 15 of the last 16 College Basketball National Champions have finished 18th or better in offensive efficiency and 22nd or better in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy’s ratings? We call it the “KenPom line” and while this is obviously subject to change as teams finish out the regular season and move up and down in those ratings, we currently have 6 teams that fulfill those data points as of February 14th. Let’s take a quick look at each... Houston CougarsOverall record 21-3 SU & 11-12-1 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 14th / Defense 1stDraft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +950 The Cougars have experience in moving on in the tourney as they’ve advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the last four and pushed to the Final 4 in two of those seasons. Their defense is elite ranking #1 in efficiency and eFG% allowed. They also turn teams over at a rate of 25% which is 4th in the nation. Their downfall could be their shooting where they rank outside the top 230 in eFG%. The Cougs also struggle at the FT line making only 68% which could come back to bite them in a tight NCAA tourney game. Purdue BoilermakersOverall record 22-2 SU & 15-8-1 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 2nd / Defense 14th Draft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +650 The problem with trusting the Boilers is they’ve been in this spot before and have found a way to lose as favorites in the Big Dance. Last year they entered the tourney as a 1 seed and were upset right out of the gate by Farleigh Dickinson. The year prior they were a 3 seed and lost to St Peters and the year before that Purdue was upset in the 1st round by North Texas. They have the most dominant big man in the game, Zach Edey, who is nearly unguardable in the paint. They are a high level 3-point shooting team hitting 40% and are top 20 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Very complete team who has also played the most difficult schedule in the country to date per KenPom. UConn HuskiesOverall record 22-2 SU & 14-10 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 3rd / Defense 17th Draft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +650 The defending National Champions are currently the favorites to win it all (along with Purdue) as of February 14th. As of this writing the Huskies have won 12 straight games, which is the longest current active streak in college hoops. They are equally balanced on both ends of the court ranking 7th nationally in eFG% offense and defense. One downside? They tend to foul quite a bit with Big East opponents gathering over 24% of their points from the charity stripe vs the Huskies. That’s the highest rate in the conference and could be a problem in a close game if they are at a big deficit from the FT line. Arizona WildcatsOverall record 19-5 SU & 16-8 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 4th / Defense 15th Draft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +1200 The Wildcats have some very impressive wins proving they can beat pretty much anyone. They won @ Duke, beat Wisconsin by 25 points, and topped Alabama by double digits. The problem is, they’ve also shown they can lose to anyone with setbacks @ Stanford, @ Washington St, and @ Oregon St all as favorites of at least 9 points. They also haven’t been great on the road with just a 4-3 SU record in Pac 12 play. They are tough to guard with all 5 starers averaging at least 10 PPG and they are a top 15 offensive and defensive rebounding team. If they run into a team that can shoot the 3 at a high level it could be a problem as Arizona ranks just 249th defending the arc. Auburn TigersOverall record 19-5 SU & 15-7-2 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 16th / Defense 4th Draft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +1800 The knock on the Tigers is they haven’t always played great vs high level teams. They are just 2-4 SU in games vs Quad 1 opponents. They’ve played a fairly easy schedule (58th per KenPom) and faced only 6 Quad 1 opponents which is the lowest of any team on this list. Every other team listed here has at least 4 Quad 1 wins and the average amongst this group, minus Auburn, is 7 Quad 1 wins. Coinciding with that trend, the Tigers are 1-4 SU this season vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 35. They are an outstanding defensive team that limits scoring inside the arc ranking #1 in the nation allowing opponents to make only 42.5% of their 2 point shots. Will their lack of success vs top rated teams be a problem in the Dance? Tennessee VolunteersOverall record 17-6 SU & 10-12-1 ATSKen Pom Efficiency – Offense 15th / Defense 6th Draft Kings Current Odds to win National Championship +1100 Defense has never been a problem for the Vols but the knock on them recently was are they good enough offensively? This year the answer is yes ranking 15th in efficiency after ranking 64th, 25th, 85th, and 96th over the previous 4 years in that metric. They average 80 PPG this season and have an offensive player that is good enough to take over games in Dalton Knecht, who has scored at least 25 points in 7 of his last 9 games (as of Feb 14). Tennessee is playing at a much faster tempo this season which is part of the reason their scoring is up nearly 10 PPG over last season. Their defense remains one of the best in the nation as it has been in past years but they do send teams to the FT line a lot (39th most – opponents percentage of points from the stripe) which is something to watch in a tight NCAA tourney game.
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