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2022 NHL Stretch Run Home/Road Values: Eastern Conference

by Scott Rickenbach

Wednesday, Mar 02, 2022

2022 NHL Stretch Run Home/Road Values: Eastern ConferenceEntering March 2nd action, the NHL is about 2/3 of the way through the season and this final upcoming 2 month stretch of regular season action encompasses the final 1/3 of the schedule and is the stretch run for the playoffs. This far into the season some strong home/road patterns have emerged so below I am taking at look at where to keep an eye out for value with FIVE Eastern Conference teams the rest of the season:Atlantic Division:TAMPA BAY – The Lightning are a strong team and 2-time defending Stanley Cup Champs so of course it makes sense they have a great home record but usually they are priced out of a lot of home games. However, did you realize Tampa Bay has won an incredible 17 of 26 road games this season? Value potential on the road!FLORIDA – When you can get a manageable price keep an eye out for the Panthers at home but also considering fading them on the road in the right situations. Florida is a fantastic 23-6 at home but is only a .500 team when on enemy ice!MONTREAL – Like Buffalo, the Canadiens are overall a bad team struggling both home and away. But, unlike the Sabres, the Habs have actually been noteworthy in just how unbelievably bad they have been as travelers this season. Montreal has won just 5 of 28 road games on the season!Metropolitan Division:PITTSBURGH – Just behind Carolina in the standings and, unlike the Hurricanes (good everywhere) there is something noteworthy about the Penguins this season for sure. Pittsburgh has lost nearly half its home games this season but the Pens have been fantastic on the road with wins in 18 of 27 games!WASHINGTON – This is another team with a surprising discrepancy as the Capitals have lost 16 of 28 home games but have won 16 of 27 road games this season and this type of knowledge can work in your favor because home ice is often “baked” into the lines and sometimes this leads to value in going against the “baked in” price.

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"No Deal!"

by Ben Burns

Wednesday, Mar 02, 2022

As you may have heard, baseball's latest deadline has come and gone. The earliest which the regular season can begin is now April 7. Spring Training will begin no earlier than March 12. Needless to say, I'm not happy. Nobody is. Commissioner Rob Manfred had this to say: "We worked hard to avoid an outcome that is bad for our fans, bad for our players and bad for our clubs. I want to assure our fans that our failure to reach an agreement was not due to a lack of effort on the part of either party."Manfred went on to say: “The clubs and our owners fully understand just how important it is to our millions of fans that we get the game on the field as soon as possible. To that end, we want to bargain and we want a deal with the Players Association as quickly as possible."Manfred concluded a letter to the fans by stating: ".... We played without an agreement in 1994 and the players went on strike in August, forcing the cancellation of the World Series. It was a painful chapter in our game’s history. We cannot risk such an outcome again for our fans and our sport. The Clubs and our owners fully understand just how important it is to our millions of fans that we get the game on the field as soon as possible. To that end, we want to bargain and we want a deal with the Players Association as quickly as possible."The players are singing a considerably different tune. MLBPA executive Tony Clark commented: "Today is a sad day. We came to Florida to navigate and negotiate for a fair collective bargaining agreement. Despite meeting daily, there is still significant work to be done. The reason we are not playing is simple: a lockout is the ultimate economic weapon. In a $10 billion dollar industry, the owners have decided to use this weapon against the greatest asset they have: the players."An MLBPA statement included the following: "Rob Manfred and MLB's owners have cancelled the start of the season. Players and fans around the world who love baseball are disgusted, but sadly not surprised .... What Rob Manfred characterized as a "defensive lockout" is, in fact, the culmination of a decades-long attempt by owners to break our Player fraternity. As in the past, this effort will fail. We are united and committed to negotiating a fair deal that will improve the sport for Players, fans and everyone who loves our game."Remembering 1994Some of you may not remember the 1994 season. In a strike which lasted 232 days, more than 900 games were missed. While that was the only time (since 1904) that there was no World Series, it actually marked the eighth work stoppage in MLB history. At the time, it was baseball's fourth "in-season work stoppage" in 22 years. It was also the longest strike in pro sports history. (Later, in 2004/05, hockey would break that record.) So, unfortunately, this has happened before and it doesn't always end quickly. What Next?So far, only the first two series from each team will be missed. I think everyone can live with that. There won't be any meetings again today but they'll be back at it again really soon. Apparently, the league's last ditch proposal "wasn't that far off." Manfred's words certainly sounded hopeful. I'm going to choose to remain optimistic. I'll keep you posted about the baseball. For now, however, I'm looking forward to enjoying a profitable March Madness. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 02, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Charlotte as a 3.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Orlando is at home against Indiana as a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 232. Philadelphia plays at home against New York in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223. Three more NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Utah visits Houston as a 13-point road favorite with a total of 232. New Orleans is at home against Sacramento as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 235. Milwaukee plays at home against Miami as a 5-point favorite. Denver hosts Oklahoma City at 9:10 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite. Phoenix is at home against Portland in the nightcap on ESPN as a 13-point favorite with a total of 226.5.The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:35 PM ET for two games. Toronto plays at home against Buffalo as a -425 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. St. Louis travels to New York to play the Rangers in the first game of a doubleheader on TNT with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Dallas is at home against Los Angeles at 8:35 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Nashville visits Seattle in the second game on TNT at 10:05 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Wednesday college basketball card includes nine games on national television. The first game starts at 11:30 AM ET in the Big South conference tournament at the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina, with Radford playing North Carolina A&T as a 2-point favorite and an over/under of 131. St. John’s hosts Xavier on FS1 in the opening televised game at 6:30 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Three televised games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Western Kentucky travels to Marshall on ESPNU as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Notre Dame plays at Florida State on ESPN2 as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 139. Seton Hall is at home against Georgetown on the CBS Sports Network as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147. Connecticut visits Creighton on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 135.5. Three more NCAAB games begin at 9 PM ET. Marquette plays at DePaul on the CBS Sports Network as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 147. Wichita State is at Tulsa on ESPNU as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 136. Arkansas hosts LSU on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 140.5. UNLV plays at home against Wyoming on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 139.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 01, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Washington hosts Detroit at 7:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two games tip-off at 7:40 PM ET. Toronto is at home against Brooklyn as an 8.5-point favorite. Boston plays at home in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT as a 6-point favorite. Two more NBA games start at 8:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Clippers visit Houston as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 229.5. Golden State plays at Minnesota in a pick ‘em matchup. Dallas travels to Los Angeles to play the Clippers in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 217. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:05 PM ET for three games. Tampa Bay plays at home against Ottawa as a -340 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton is at Philadelphia as a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Columbus hosts New Jersey as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Carolina visits Detroit at 7:35 PM ET as a -220 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games begin at 8:05 PM ET. Minnesota plays at home against Calgary as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Winnipeg is at home against Montreal as a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Columbus plays at home against the New York Islanders as a -290 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:05 PM ET. Vegas hosts San Jose as a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Boston travels to Anaheim as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Tuesday college basketball card includes 12 games on national television. Two games tip-off at 6:30 PM ET. Villanova plays at home against Providence on FS1 as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Richmond is at home against Dayton on the CBS Sports Network as a 2-point favorite with a total of 133. Three more televised NCAAB games start at 7 PM ET. Oklahoma hosts West Virginia on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. South Carolina is at home against Missouri on ESPNU as a 7-point favorite with a total of 136.5. Kentucky plays at home against Mississippi on ESPN as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142. Two more televised NCAAB games begin at 8:30 PM ET. Michigan is at home against Michigan State as a 4-point favorite with a total of 142.5. VCU hosts St. Bonaventure on the CBS Sports Network as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Four televised NCAAB games start at 9 PM ET. Houston plays at Cincinnati on ESPNU as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Virginia Tech is at home against Louisville on ESPN2 as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132. Boise State hosts Nevada on FS2 as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 138.5. Purdue visits Wisconsin on ESPN as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 144. Arizona travels to USC on ESPN at 11 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 150.5.Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League concludes with one match at 2:45 PM ET. Leicester City plays at Burnley on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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The Underrated Cincinnati Bengals

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Cincinnati lost the Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams, yet better game management by the head coach Zac Taylor could have made the difference in the Bengals pulling the upset and lifting the Vince Lombardi championship trophy. Running back Joe Mixon was not on the field for both of Cincinnati’s failed fourth-and-one opportunities. In hindsight, this looks like an inexplicable failure on Taylor’s part to put his best players in a position to succeed. Taylor would later say that Samaji Perine “deserved” the opportunity to be on the field in those situations. The Bengals’ players and fans (and bettors) deserved to have their best running back in Mixon be given the opportunity to get the one-yard necessary to continue the drive. Mixon averaged 4.8 yards per carry in the Super Bowl but was only given 15 rushing attempts in the game. Perhaps it is understandable why Taylor kept Perine on the field for their fourth-down attempt in the first quarter given his ball-catching skills. But for Taylor to not use a timeout to get Mixon into the game when the Bengals had a fourth-and-one on their final drive and about ten yards away from getting into placekicker Evan McPherson’s field goal range for a potential game-tying kick was simply inexcusable. That mistake might have cost Cincinnati the Super Bowl. Neither of the Super Bowl teams had impeccable credentials entering this game, yet observers that were discounting Cincinnati’s chances made a mistake by not focusing on their most recent run of games. After an embarrassing 41-16 midseason loss at home to in-state rival Cleveland, the Bengals followed that up with a hard-fought 26-23 loss at home to San Francisco. Cincinnati’s prospects did not look promising at that point, despite not many appreciating how impressive the close loss with the 49ers would like in hindsight. Since that loss to the eventual loser in the NFC championship game (who had beaten the Rams twice this season), the Bengals won six of seven games. The play of their defense has improved as they held five of those seven opponents to 21 or fewer points. They stymied Kansas City to just a field goal in the second half in both weeks 17 and in the AFC championship game. In the playoffs, Cincinnati had six interceptions going into the Super Bowl. Their defense then faced Matthew Stafford who threw 17 interceptions this season with four returned for touchdowns. While much of the conversation in the two weeks before the Super Bowl included a coronation of Stafford in his first year out of Detroit, what was being forgotten is how different he would be treated if the Bengals had not dropped his errant pass midway through the fourth quarter in the NFC championship game which should have been his 18th interception of the season. Sean McVay only had Stafford throw 17 passes in their opening playoff game against Arizona. If Stafford had finally solved his interception problem, McVay did not seem to be convinced of this just a month before the Super Bowl. The Bengals found success in the second half against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game by relying on a three-man pass rush which allowed them to use eight defenders in pass coverage. One of the advantages of a pass defense like this is that it takes the power out of offensive head coaches like Andy Reid and now McVay since it is difficult for these masterminds to simply scheme out of the challenge. These defenses can be beaten, but it requires the quick-thinking skills of the quarterback. This had not been a strength for Stafford in his career.Joe Burrow, on the other hand, was playing with the utmost confidence and seemingly pressure-free with his career still ahead of him. Cincinnati is well ahead of its rebuilding plan. Isn’t it interesting that six of seven-run going into the Super Bowl was about eleven months after Burrow suffered his season-ending knee injury last season? Burrow worked himself to be available to begin the year, yet doctors often claim it takes a full twelve months to fully recover from injuries like that. The Bengals' late-season surge coincides with that timeline. Cincinnati covered the point spread in nine of their eleven games against winning teams this season, with eight of those nine covers occurring in the second half of the season. The Rams covered the point spread in just three of their nine games against winning teams this season. Considering that the underdog has covered the point spread in eleven of the last eighteen Super Bowls since 2003, we expected that dog trend to continue with this improving Bengals team. Cincinnati was in a position to win the Super Bowl if only had Taylor better managed those final moments. Now the Bengals will go from the hunter to the hunted next season. Defending their AFC North title will be a challenge with four games against two of the best and most consistent franchises in the league in the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers with another two games against the very talented Cleveland Browns. Dan Marino made the Super Bowl in his second year in the NFL but was never able to get his Miami Dolphins back in the big game. Could Burrow suffer the same fate?Good luck - TDG.

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Super Bowl Observations

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Team Del Genio ended the NFL season on a high note by winning all three of their plays, including their NFL Total of the Year and their NFL 1st Half Play of the Year. Our first decision for the matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals was to endorse the Rams to cover the first half line (-2.5 in many locations, with -3s elsewhere). The Rams had gotten off to plenty of fast starts in the first half this season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. We identified that Los Angeles had two initial edges in the game that would help them get off to a good start: home field and Super Bowl experience. Many of the players on both sides of the ball along with head coach Sean McVay were part of the Rams’ Super Bowl team three years ago. McVay admitted after that game that he attempted to accomplish too much in the lead-up to that game. Nerves were likely to be less of an issue this time around for the players who put on a Rams uniform in that game. The home crowd should energize the Los Angeles players in the opening moments of the game as well. McVay usually has his team start well. The Rams averaged 13.3 points in the first half going into the Super Bowl while allowing only 9.4 points in the first half. In their three previous playoff games, Los Angeles had averaged 16.0 points in the first half to give them an average halftime lead of 11.7 points per game against three playoff opponents who have averaged only 4.3 points in the opening 30 minutes. The only game where the Rams did not have a halftime lead was in the NFC championship game against San Francisco when the 49ers took a 10-7 halftime lead. Kyle Shanahan and his team were determined to get off to a better start than they did in the final week of the regular season when they let Los Angeles go into halftime with a 17-3 lead. The Rams blew that lead in the second half yet responded by scoring three first-half touchdowns the next week to take a 21-0 half-time lead against Arizona in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The next week in Tampa Bay, Los Angeles went into halftime with a 20-3 lead against the defending Super Bowl champions. Cincinnati had been the comeback kids with Joe Burrow as their quarterback. They rallied from a 28-17 halftime deficit in Week 17 of the regular season to upset Kansas City. They pulled off a second comeback win in four weeks in the AFC championship game against the Chiefs by overcoming a 21-10 halftime score to upset them, 27-24, in Arrowhead Stadium. Head coach Zac Taylor would probably not feel any urgency to take chances in the opening half. He knew his team is playing on the road, and his players may have nerves. The Bengals wanted to run the ball to establish the pass. Their continued commitment to run on first down to Tony Romo and many observers frustration represented a philosophy to not put Burrow in harm’s way with second-and-long and third-and-long situations. The Cincinnati offensive line was an obvious weakness, and the Bengals were fortunate to survive their game against Tennessee in the divisional round when Burrow got sacked nine times. What Taylor learned from the previous season when Burrow got sacked 32 times before his season-ending injury (with 13 sacks coming from empty backfield sets) is that he needs to do more to limit the punishment his franchise quarterback takes. Running the ball has a second advantage of putting his two big wide receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, in run blocking responsibilities with an opportunity to perhaps soften up Rams’ cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and that could pay off in the second half. The Bengals just wanted to stay competitive going into the second half when their confidence should rise. Cincinnati averaged 12.6 points in the first half this season yet allowed 12.4 points in the opening 30 minutes. Their scoring dropped to 9.6 points in the first half when playing on the road. In their three playoff games, the Bengals averaged 13.0 points in the first half but were outscored by 0.3 points in the first half in those games. Sure enough, the Rams went into the locker room with a 13-10 lead.We then decided to endorse the Bengals plus the points for the final score. Several reasons made the Bengals' showdown with the Rams a unique Super Bowl. For starters, Los Angeles will be playing in their home SoFi Stadium for this game, yet it did not feel appropriate to assign them the full weight of the home field edge. The Rams organization did not control the ticket allocation the way they do during their other home games. Even when they do, the Los Angeles market often buys and re-sells these tickets as fans from San Francisco certainly took advantage of twice in the second half of the season. The Rams will have their share of fans in the stadium, yet Cincinnati fans will have a significant foothold in the seats as well. Neutral observers may quickly decide to have a rooting interest with the underdog. The Los Angeles players got to stay at home to prepare for this game, yet it was unclear if staying at home, in a city like Los Angeles, is as advantageous for the two weeks before the Super Bowl as it would otherwise be during the regular season. Tampa Bay took advantage of the home field last year to win the Super Bowl while being the first team to ever play the Big Game in their stadium. However, there is a sizable difference in playing in Tampa Bay during a pandemic when crowds had just been allowed back in Florida then it is playing a Super Bowl in Los Angeles a year later when travel has become normalized. It is unusual for the Super Bowl to not have at least one number one or two seed coming from the AFC or NFC representing their conference. Both the Bengals and the Rams were four seeds going into the playoffs. Neither of these teams lacks significant weaknesses. Sure enough, it was the third quarter where Cincinnati made their move as they scored ten unanswered points to take a 20-13 lead. The Rams ended their scoring drought with a field goal to make pull within four points where the score stayed until Matthew Stafford engineered the final touchdown scoring drive to give Los Angeles a 23-20 lead. The Bengals' ensuing drive stalled, yet we successfully threaded the needle by winning the Rams' first half bet before winning the Bengals plus the points final score wager.We correctly anticipated a lower-scoring game than the 49.5 point total from the oddsmakers suggested. You had to be living under a rock to have not heard someone in the national media commenting that the biggest mismatch in the Big Game will be the Bengals’ offensive line versus Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defensive line. Certainly, Zac Taylor and Sean McVay would be game-planning around this game within the game. Taylor would not want this to be a high-scoring game since that puts more pressure on his star quarterback Joe Burrow to encounter more pass rushes from Donald and company. Taylor wanted to game plan to give Burrow an opportunity to win this game in the fourth quarter, and he needs to still be standing upright for that to happen. Cincinnati won all three of their playoff games despite only averaging 24 points per game and not scoring more than 27 ppg. All three of those games finished under the number.The Bengals did a fine job in neutralizing the Rams’ pass rush in the first half. Yet defensive coordinator Raheem Morris’ halftime adjustment to put a fifth player on the defensive line was the tactical move that allowed Donald to thrive. Los Angeles would end the game with seven sacks and completing overwhelming Burrow and the Cincinnati offense in the fourth quarter. Those of us with under tickets had some nervous moments at the end of the game since a Bengals touchdown drive or even overtime could have put the final score into the 50s. Yet the Los Angeles pass rush was too much for Cincinnati to overcome, and the game finished under the number. It was a satisfying and rewarding end to the football season for the Team. Good luck - TDG.

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Finding Hidden Value: Wake Forest

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Duke, Notre Dame, and North Carolina may receive most of the national attention in the ACC this season. But the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a likely NCAA tournament team that can make a deep run in the ACC Tournament coming up in two weeks. Despite a 12-7 record in the ACC that has them in fifth place, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently projects them as a 10-seed in the Big Dance. Wake Forest was our selection for our College Basketball Game of the Month when they hosted Louisville on Saturday (February 26th) as a 9-point favorite. They looked primed for a big performance on Saturday hosting Louisville despite losing three of their previous four games. They got upset by an 80-69 score at Clemson as a 4-point favorite in their previous game on Wednesday. But the Demon Deacons allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Wake Forest only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. A better effort against the Cardinals was likely when considering that they had covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons ranked second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They returned home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons were nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which was generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranked 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals ranked second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons had also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. They looked to be in a good position to secure an impressive victory. Wake Forest rewarded our faith in them back at home to make a statement as they crushed Louisville by a 99-77 score. The Demon Deacons did allow the Cardinals to make 51% of their shots but they did hold Louisville to just a 3 of 18 (17%) clip from behind the arc. But Wake Forest made 13 of their 27 (48%) shots from 3-point range to help fuel a 58% field goal percentage in the rout. The Demon Deacons also got to the free-throw line 27 times where they converted in 22 of their shots. Wake Forest only turned the ball over 10 times which helped them find their shooting rhythm on offense.All five of the Demon Deacons starters scored in double-digits. Head coach Steve Forbes’ team can put up points with any of the other teams in the ACC. They may get in trouble in the ACC Tournament against teams that are adept at forcing turnovers. Miami (FL), Florida State, Georgia Tech, and NC State all force at least 19.1% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. But Duke, Notre Dame, and North Carolina all do not force more than 14.6% turnovers in their opponent’s possessions. Best of luck — Frank.

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Undefeated Home Teams on Senior Day

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Many were surprised when Saint Mary's knocked off #1 Gonzaga this past Saturday.  But I had a play on the Gaels, as a 10.5-point underdog.  Part of the rationale for my selection was that Saint Mary's was undefeated at home this season.  The Gaels were 15-0 SU, yet were getting double-digits.  Even better:  it was the final home game of the season for Saint Mary's.  And this "Last Home Game" is traditionally when schools celebrate their Senior class, so it's always an emotional game for the home team.As a sports handicapper, we can take advantage of this emotion.  Of course, I don't play all the teams in a haphazard manner.  Instead, I will focus on the "best of the best."Let's take a look now at how teams -- like Saint Mary's -- that are undefeated at home perform on Senior Day.Since 1990, our unbeaten home teams have gone 174-141-8 ATS, for a solid 55%.  And, most interestingly, until Saint Mary's played #1-ranked Gonzaga, no team with an unbeaten home record had been an underdog of more than 5 points on Senior Day (yet the Gaels were catching 10.5 points)!Now, even though there's nothing wrong with 55%, we always look to improve our numbers by zeroing in on the stronger subsets.One clear strategy is to filter out the games with big point spreads above -11 points.  Home teams can play with much emotion, but still not cover a huge point spread.  To wit:  those high-priced home favorites have burned money on Senior Day, with a 67-77-3 ATS record.  So, with this parameter in place, our Last Home Game system moves to 107-64-5, 62.5% ATS.This season, we've had three plays already, and the angle has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS.The winners were Murray St. -3.5 over Belmont; Middle Tennessee St. -1.5 over W. Kentucky; and Saint Mary's +10.5 over Gonzaga.Looking ahead to the month of March, the following teams currently have unbeaten home records (but most will be favored by more than 11 on their Senior Day).  ArizonaAuburnIonaKentuckySMUTennesseeWyomingTwo teams that surely will not be favored by double-digits will be Tennessee, when it hosts Arkansas, and Wyoming, when it welcomes Fresno State -- both on March 5.  Likewise, SMU may be favorably priced when it plays Tulane, on March 6.Keep an eye out this week for these games. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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Conference Tourney Time!

by Will Rogers

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

Conference Tournaments are set to get underway this week and the brackets are set in the Ohio Valley, Big South, Missouri Valley, Sun Belt, SoCon (Southern), Atlantic Sun, Horizon League, NEC, Summit, WCC and Patriot League. Here are a few tidbits that can hopefully enable you to make smarter wagers. Ohio Valley - This tournament takes place in Evansville, IN and the top two teams (Murray State, Belmont) both get double-byes to the semis. So it’s heavily-weighted to the favorites. I don’t think that there will be a ton of value in this particular tournament, but the interesting thing is that Murray State probably does not need to win it. Belmont is a good team and it would be interesting to see the line in a potential tournament final where Murray State had nothing on the line.Big South - Here the top seeds don’t get the double bye. The top three (Longwood, Winthrop and Gardner Webb) seem a cut above the rest. Gardner Webb, the 3-seed, is the highest rated team at KenPom. The team to target may be 4-seed USC Upstate as several teams seeded lower than the Spartans are rated higher at KenPom. This tournament takes place in Charlotte.Missouri Valley - “Arch Madness” (tournament is always held in St. Louis) was turned upside down on the final day of the regular season when Northern Iowa upset Loyola Chicago to claim the top seed. Loyola, who would have been an overwhelming favorite as the top seed, actually fell to the 4-seed! Don’t be surprised if it’s Loyola vs. Missouri State playing in the Final. Loyola probably now needs to win this in order to make the Big Dance.Sun Belt - Texas State is the top seed, but don’t rule out South Alabama (the 5-seed) making a run in Pensacola. The Jaguars have a tough road ahead as they would have to win four times in five days. If they win the first game, they would likely be a favorite over 4-seed Troy and a game with Texas State would be close to a pick ‘em. In the bottom half of the bracket, Coastal Carolina could be a dark horse. This is a wide open tournament.SoCon - Chattanooga and Furman, the top two seeds in Asheville, are both strong. The 3-seed Samford could be prone to getting knocked out early and will probably be a slight underdog in the quarterfinals against 6-seed UNC Greensboro. Compared to Chattanooga, Furman seems like they may have an easier path to the Final. Chattanooga was 2-0 vs. Furman in the regular season. Atlantic Sun - Two of the unluckiest teams in America, Kennesaw State and Eastern Kentucky, will meet in the first round. I am very interested to see if the winner of that matchup can pull an upset over the Western Division winner, Jacksonville State, in the quarterfinals. I think Liberty is the team to beat here. Every game in the A-Sun Tournament takes place at a campus site (of the higher seeded team).Horizon League - Not until the semifinals will the remaining Horizon League teams head to Indianapolis. The first two rounds are played at campus sites (of the higher seeded team). Cleveland State is the top seed here, but recall I played Oakland against CSU last weekend and the Golden Grizzlies (the 5-seed) ran out to a 65-57 win. I happen to think Oakland is the best team in the Horizon, but they are at a severe disadvantage having to play in the first round, then (if they win) going to Cleveland State for the quarterfinals. The bracket is re-seeded in the semis with the highest remaining team playing the lowest-remaining team.NEC - Bryant nabbed the top seed on Saturday, but Wagner is the team to beat in my eyes. Last year, as the top seed, Wagner got upset by Mount St. Mary’s. Now as the 2-seed, the Seahawks are thinking about revenge. All games in the NEC Tournament are played at campus sites (of the higher seed) and there is reseeding (highest seed plays lowest remaining seed) for the semis. Summit - South Dakota State is the only team in the country besides Murray State that did not lose a single conference game all season. That makes the Jackrabbits the runaway favorites in Sioux Falls this weekend. They will have to win three games in four days to do so. But given that they outscored Summit League opponents by 15.5 points per game, maybe that’s not so difficult? WCC - Finally some teams you may be aware of! Gonzaga, St. Mary’s and San Francisco are all likely to get in as at-large teams, though San Francisco is very much on the bubble and cannot afford to be upset in its first game and they could be playing a good BYU team. Not that Gonzaga or St. Mary’s needed the help, but this tournament in Las Vegas greatly favors the top two seeds, who get byes to the semifinals. The third and fourth seeds (Santa Clara and San Francisco) get byes to the quarters. The bottom four teams are at a major disadvantage and have no hope here. There is a massive divide between the top five and bottom five. Patriot - Colgate, the top seed, is a pretty big favorite here and they’ll get to play at home as every game is held at campus sites (of the higher seed). The Raiders won the Tournament last year. 

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NFL Draft Futures: Who Will Be The First Pick in the 2022 Draft?

by Oskeim Sports

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

 The 2022 NFL draft gets underway on Thursday, April 28, in Paradise, Nevada. The Las Vegas suburb was supposed to host the 2020 selection show, but the coronavirus pandemic forced that year’s draft to be held virtually.   This year, it all begins with the first pick held by the Jacksonville Jaguars who finished a league-worst 3-14. The Jags have a new head coach, former Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson, and will pick ahead of Detroit which finished 3-13-1. Houston, the New York Jets, and the New York Giants round out the top five overall picks.   In the past two seasons, quarterbacks were the focus of the draft. Last year, the top three picks were all signal-callers. This year, only one quarterback is among the top five favorites to go No. 1. The Jags actually got their quarterback last year drafting Trevor Lawrence with the top pick.  The Jags have plenty of needs, including one very vital position. Barring a trade then, who will the Jaguars select with the first pick?  Edge Rusher  It’s arguably the most important position in football after the quarterback. Teams with outstanding edge rushers are teams that make postseasons. Look at Super Bowl LVI for proof. The Rams sacked Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow nine times.  In this year’s draft, there are two outstanding edge rushers – Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux. Either could go first and both fit an immediate need for Jacksonville. Both players are at or near the top of almost everyone’s draft board and they are among the top five betting favorites to go No. 1.  Hutchinson is a 6-foot-6-inch, 270-pound ball of relentless energy. His father played defensive line at Michigan and the younger Hutchinson is even better than his old man. He has a great burst and can line up anywhere on the defensive line. He also has experience as a standup linebacker. That is why he is the overall favorite at +160 to be drafted first this year.  Thibodeaux is just as big at 6-5 and 280 pounds. He is a fluid athlete that can wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. He had to fight through some injury issues last season, but Thibodeaux is an amazing talent. Several NFL teams, including Jacksonville, are interested which is why he could be the first overall pick. Thibodeaux is listed at +250 to go first.  Protectors  After quarterback and stud pass rusher, the next position franchises look for is either cornerback or offensive tackle. There are two of the latter worthy of the first pick this year. Eric Fisher was the last OT to go first overall to Kansas City and now Alabama’s Evan Neal has the chance to do the same.  Neal is huge at 6-7 and 350 pounds. As a run blocker, there is no question he is outstanding. He will need to hone his pass blocking skills at the next level, but several teams are sold on Neal’s ability. The Jags could use a solid left tackle to protect Lawrence’s back side. Neal is given +185 odds to be selected first.  The other offensive tackle high on everyone’s board is NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu. He is 6-4, which is a bit on the short side for an offensive tackle, but he is an amazing athlete. He comes from a family full of college athletes and it shows in his play on the field. He has great feet and excels in zone blocking schemes. At +550, he’s a bit of a longshot to go first overall.  The Lone QB  There is one quarterback among the top favorites, but he is listed at +3300. That would be Pitt’s Kenny Pickett. He led the Panthers to an ACC title while throwing for 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns. He is extremely confident and possesses the skills to be an NFL starter at some point.   The bigger question is who would draft him first. Jacksonville already has their franchise quarterback. It would take a major trade and a team sold on Pickett for him to go first overall. 

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NBA Stock Rising and Falling

by Sean Murphy

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

With the calendar about to flip over to March, it's a good time to take stock of where teams stand in the Association. Another wild trade deadline period is well behind us and the cream has certainly risen to the top as we head into the stretch run. Here's a look at two teams on the rise and two on their way down entering the new month.Stock risingMiami HeatWhile the Heat are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games they enter the week on an 8-1 SU tear and will have the benefit of playing 12 of their next 15 games at home, where they're 20-7 SU and 14-12-1 ATS on the season. Having allowed 100+ points in five straight games I would expect to see a defensive turnaround sooner rather than later as I do rate the Heat as having one of the league's top-10 defenses. While they will have to deal with a back-to-back set in Milwaukee and Brooklyn later this week, the Bucks have looked vulnerable lately while the Nets won't have the services of Kyrie Irving on their home floor. New Orleans PelicansThe Pelicans were buyers at the trade deadline as they acquired C.J. McCollum to bolster their offense with Zion Williamson still on the shelf and apparently nowhere close to returning to the team. Sunday's rout of the Lakers made it two straight wins coming out of the break and in convincing fashion in Phoenix and Los Angeles. McCollum has proven to be a tremendous fit and the duo of Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas have been underrated to be sure. New Orleans will play six of its next eight games at home, beginning with another winnable contest against the lowly Kings on Wednesday night.Stock fallingCharlotte HornetsThe buzz has gone quiet in Charlotte as the Hornets have dropped 10 of their last 12 games overall, going 4-7-1 ATS over that stretch. To prove just how far they've fallen, they lost at home against the Pistons on Sunday - a team they had previously hung 140+ points on in two other matchups this season. Unfortunately the Hornets schedule only gets tougher from here, with consecutive road games this week followed by a difficult three-game homestand against the Spurs, Nets and Celtics. Note that Charlotte enters the week having been torched for 111+ points in six of its last seven contests.Los Angeles LakersThis season has been a complete disaster for the Lakers and Sunday's blowout loss against the Pelicans on their home floor might serve as rock-bottom. At least they hope so. At 6-14 SU over their last 20 games and showing no signs of turning things around anytime soon, it's difficult to envision where the Lakers can turn for a spark at this point. This week's schedule features three games in five nights against the Mavericks, Clippers and Warriors so things could very well get worse before they get better. After that they'll play 10 of their next 13 contests on the road. While Los Angeles still sits well within playoff contention (3.5 games behind the Clippers with three games in hand), that may not still be the case when we check back in a couple of weeks from now. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 28, 2022

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Minnesota visits Cleveland as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 202.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Orlando hosts Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Miami plays at home against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. Toronto travels to Brooklyn as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The NBA card concludes with three games beginning at 8:10 PM ET. Memphis is at home against San Antonio as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 235. Milwaukee hosts Charlotte as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 241. Sacramento visits Oklahoma City as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 222.5.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. Two games drop the puck at 7:35 PM ET. New Jersey hosts Vancouver as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto travels to Washington as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Boston plays at Los Angeles at 10:35 PM ET as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Monday college basketball card includes eight games on national television. North Carolina hosts Syracuse on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Tar Heels won their third-straight game with an 84-74 victory at North Carolina State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. They raised their record to 21-8 with the win. The Orange have lost two in a row with their 97-72 loss to Duke as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Syracuse’s record fell to 15-14 with the setback. North Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 157.Baylor visits Texas in the nightcap of the ESPN doubleheader at 9 PM ET. The Bears won their third straight game with an 80-70 victory against Kansas as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. They improved their record to 24-5. The Longhorns are on a two-game winning streak after an 82-81 win at West Virginia on Saturday. Texas now has a 21-8 record. Baylor is a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 139. Texas Tech plays at home against Kansas State on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Red Raiders had their four-game winning streak end with a 69-66 loss at TCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 22-7 record. The Wildcats are on a three-game losing streak after their 74-73 upset loss to Iowa State as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas State has a 14-14 record. Texas Tech is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 132.5.San Diego State travels to Wyoming on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Aztecs won their sixth game in their last seven with a 77-52 win at San Jose State as a 21.5-point favorite on Friday. They raised their record to 18-7 with the victory. The Cowboys won their second game in their last their last three with a 74-61 victory against Nevada as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Wyoming’s record rose to 23-5 with the win. San Diego State is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 129.Jackson State plays at Prairie Valley A&M on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Panthers had their four-game winning streak end with a 72-69 loss to Alcorn State on Saturday. They have an 8-16 record. The Tigers are on a two-game losing streak after their 81-66 loss at Texas Southern on Saturday. Their record fell to 8-18 with the loss. Fresno State is at home against New Mexico State on FS1 at 10 PM ET. The Bulldogs were on a four-game losing streak before their 65-40 upset win at Air Force as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. They have raised their record to 19-10. The Aggies lost three in a row before their 69-65 victory against the Air Force as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Their record fell 12-17 with the loss. Fresno State is 10.5 favorite with a total of 134.5.Washington State visits at Oregon State on ESPNU at 11 PM ET. The Cougars lost their sixth game in their last seven in their 78-70 loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Their record fell to 15-13 with the loss. The Beavers have dropped 14 in a row with a 94-55 loss to UCLA as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Oregon State’s record is now 3-24. Washington State is an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.UCLA plays at Washington on ESPN2 at 11 PM ET. The Bruins won their fourth game in their last five with a 94-55 victory at Oregon State as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. They raised their record to 21-6. The Huskies ended a four-game losing streak with a 78-70 victory against Washington State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. They improved their record to 14-13. UCLA is a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 139.5. 

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