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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 04/05/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 05, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and UEFA Champions League action.The NBA has 12 games on the docket. Two games tip-off at 7:05 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at Indiana as a 12-point road favorite with a total of 232. Cleveland visits Orlando as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Three more games start at 7:35 PM ET. Brooklyn plays at home against Houston as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 242.5. Miami is at home against Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224.5. Toronto hosts Atlanta as a 4-point favorite with a total of 226.5.Three more NBA games begin at 8:05 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Washington as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 234. Oklahoma City plays at home against Portland as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 223.5. Milwaukee visits Chicago on ESPN. The Bucks saw their record fall to 48-30 with their second-straight loss in a 118-112 upset loss at Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bulls had their two-game losing streak end in a 127-109 loss to Miami as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago has a 45-33 record. Milwaukee is a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Two games in the NBA tip-off at 9:05 PM ET. Denver hosts San Antonio as a 7-point favorite with a total of 234.5. Utah plays at home against Memphis as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 221. New Orleans travels to Sacramento at 10:05 PM ET as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 226. The Los Angeles Lakers play at Phoenix at 10:35 PM ET.Ten games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for six games. Carolina visits Buffalo as a -250 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Ottawa plays at Montreal as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida hosts Toronto as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Rangers play at New Jersey as a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Philadelphia is at home against Columbus as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Pittsburgh plays at home as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Buffalo visits Detroit at 7:37 PM ET as a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Minnesota plays at Nashville at 8:07 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Dallas hosts the New York Islanders at 8:37 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Edmonton travels to San Jose at 10:37 PM ET as a -175 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League begin with two first leg matches at 3 PM ET. Manchester City hosts Atletico Madrid on CBS as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.Liverpool plays at Benfica on Paramount+ and fuboTV as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Apr 04, 2022

The Monday sports card features NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Four games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Boston visits Columbus at 7:05 PM ET. The Bruins won their sixth game in their last seven with a 5-2 victory against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Columbus has lost six games in a row with that setback. Boston is a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Tampa Bay hosts Toronto at 7:35 PM ET. The Lightning had their four-game winning streak end in a 5-4 loss to Montreal on Saturday. The Maple Leafs are on a four-game winning streak after a 6-3 victory at Philadelphia on Saturday. Tampa Bay is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.St. Louis plays at home against Arizona at 8:05 PM ET. The Blues won their third game in their last four with a 6-4 win at Calgary on Saturday. The Coyotes lost their seventh game in their last eight with a 5-0 loss to Anaheim on Friday. St. Louis is a -380 money line favorite with a total of 6.Calgary travels to Los Angeles at 10:35 PM ET. The Flames lost their third game in a row with their 6-4 loss to St. Louis on Saturday. The Kings are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 victory at Winnipeg. Calgary is a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.The Monday college basketball card concludes the season with Kansas playing North Carolina in the National Championship game at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Jayhawks won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in the Final Four on Saturday. Kansas shot 54% from the field while making 13 of their 24 shots from 3-point land. They held the Wildcats to 39% shooting. David McCormack led the team with 25 points. The Tar Heels have won 11 of their last 12 games after beating Duke, 81-77, as a 4.5-point underdog in the Final Four on Saturday. They shot 42% but made 10 of their 26 shots from 3-point range. They held the Blue Devils to 42% shooting and a 5 of 22 mark from 3-point land. Caleb Love led North Carolina with 28 points.Kansas is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 152. Tip-off time is set for 9:20 PM ET on TBS.Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League continues with Arsenal playing at Crystal Palace on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. The Gunners have won six of their last seven games across all competitions with their 1-0 victory at Aston Villa in English Premier League action on March 19th. They are in a tie for fourth place with Tottenham with 54 in the EPL table with two matches in hand. The Eagles have three of their last four matches with a 4-0 victory against Everton in the FA Cup on March 20th. Crystal Palace is in 12th place in the EPL with 34 points. Arsenal is a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Apr 04, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has 12 games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 1:10 PM ET. Boston hosts Washington as a 13-point favorite with the total set at 222 (all odds from DraftKings). Milwaukee plays at home against Dallas in the first game of a doubleheader on ABC. The Bucks’ two-game winning streak ended on Friday with a 153-119 upset loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite. Their record dropped to 48-29. The Mavericks were on a three-game winning streak before a 135-103 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Dallas’ record is 48-30. Milwaukee is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.Denver visits Los Angeles to play the Lakers in the second game on ABC at 3:40 PM ET. The Nuggets had their three-game winning streak end in a 136-130 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on Friday. Their record fell to 46-32. The Lakers are on a five-game losing streak after their 114-111 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Los Angeles has a 31-46 record. Denver is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 230.5. Indiana plays Detroit at 5:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. Two more NBA games start at 6:10 PM ET. Philadelphia travels to Cleveland as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 224. New York is at Orlando as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 216. Four games in the NBA begin at 7:10 PM ET. Phoenix plays at Oklahoma City as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 221.5. San Antonio plays at home against Portland as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 231. Toronto hosts Miami as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213. Minnesota visits Houston as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 244. Golden State plays at Sacramento at 9:10 PM ET as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against New Orleans at 9:40 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 222.5.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 1:05 PM ET for two games. Florida travels to Buffalo as a -235 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Ottawa hosts Detroit as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Islanders play at New Jersey on TNT at 4:05 PM ET. The Islanders won their third straight game with their 3-0 victory on the road against the New York Rangers on Friday. The Devils have lost two straight after a 7-6 loss at home to Florida yesterday. The New York Islanders are a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Four more games in the NHL start at 7:05 PM ET. Washington plays at home against Minnesota as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vancouver is at home against Vegas with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers host Philadelphia as a -330 money line favorite with a total of 6. Chicago plays at home against Arizona as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Edmonton visits Anaheim at 8:05 PM ET as a -215 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Dallas plays at Seattle at 9:05 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League continues with two matches on the USA Network. West Ham United hosts Everton at 9 AM ET. Tottenham plays at home against Newcastle United at 11:30 AM ET.

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American League - Over/Under Preview

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

A look at Over/Under win totals for each American League team (last year’s record in parentheses):AMERICAN LEAGUE EASTBALTIMORE (52-110) 2022 O/U – 62.5The endless rebuild continues in Baltimore, where the Orioles hope to improve a woeful pitching staff (5.84 ERA) by moving back the fences at Camden Yards.BOSTON (92-70)2022 O/U – 85.5The starting rotation is Scotch-taped together after losing ace Chris Sale to injury for the first part of the season. But the Red Sox always hit, and the lineup got a boost with the signing of free agent second baseman Trevor Story. Expect lots of 8-7 games.NEW YORK (92-70)2022 O/U – 91.5The Yankees were a streaky team last season as the lineup ran hot and cold, partly because of the lack of left-handed bats in the lineup. Hopefully Josh Donaldson, acquired from the Twins, helps provide some balance. Gerrit Cole (16-8 last year) leads a decent rotation.TAMPA BAY (100-62)2022 O/U – 89.5Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber joins a starting staff that was already solid, fronting for a lineup that scored the second-most runs in the majors in 2021.  Rays have won more games than any team in the A.L. over the past three seasons.TORONTO (91-72)2022 O/U – 92.5Losing Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and second baseman Marcus Semien was tough to swallow, but the Jays still have talent on hand. Expect lots of runs from a solid lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose 48 homers last season tied for the ML lead.AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRALCHICAGO (93-69)2022 O/U – 91.5Two straight playoff appearances – and two straight first-round losses. The White Sox are hoping for more this season, behind a deep rotation that has no real ace and an excellent lineup led by Tim Anderson and Jose Abreau.CLEVELAND (80-82)2022 O/U – 76.5Low payroll and low expectations for the Guardians. Veteran manager Terry Francona will have his work cut out with this group. Injuries kept No. 1 Shane Bieber to 16 starts last season, and if he can’t stay on the field more this season, it won’t be pretty.DETROIT (77-85)2022 O/U – 77.5Five straight losing seasons were apparently enough for management, which bumped up the payroll and brought on starter Eduardo Rodriguez and several others. Tigers are hoping Miguel Cabrera can still drive in runs at age 39.KANSAS CITY (74-88)2022 O/U – 74.5Look who’s back! Zack Greinke, who won the Cy in KC in 2009. He’ll head a young staff that showed some promise last season. All eyes will be on shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., considered the top prospect in the majors.MINNESOTA (73-89)2022 O/U – 81.5The offense should not be a problem, especially with the arrival of premier shortstop Carlos Correia. The problem is the pitching staff, which will throw to former Yankee catcher Gary Sanchez. None of the projected starting staff had an ERA under 4 last season.AMERICAN LEAGUE WESTHOUSTON (95-67)2022 O/U – 91.5Correia is gone, but plenty of talent remains from last season’s World Series losers. Justin Verlander returns from Tommy John surgery, and if he’s 80 percent of what he was, the staff will be among the best. Scoring runs won’t be a problem.OAKLAND (86-76)2022 O/U – 70.5At least the A’s are consistent. Develop players, then trade them away before you have to pay them. The post-lockout exodus (Olsen, Chapman, Bassitt) was almost immediate. A move to Las Vegas seems inevitable; only the details remain.LOS ANGELES (77-85)2022 O/U – 83.5If, if, if the Angeles stay somewhat healthy (looking at you, Mike Trout and Tony Rendon), then they’ll have a puncher’s chance at ending their 7-year playoff drought. Noah Syndergaard should bolster the starting staff and Michael Lorenzen should boost the bullpen.SEATTLE (90-72)2022 O/U – 83.5Has it really been 20 years since the Mariners made the playoffs? Yikes. That streak is in serious danger this season as Seattle progresses. Cy Young winner Robbie Ray leads the staff, and if the offense is even a little above average, the Mariners could surprise.TEXAS (60-102)2022 O/U – 74.5The Rangers are another team trying to spend their way out of the dumpster. The middle of the infield will feature Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien. None of the projected starters – including free agent Jon Gray – had a winning record last year.

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MLB Futures Wager: Toronto Blue Jays to Win the 2022 World Series

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

The baseball gods must have been looking down from above, as management and labor settled their dispute surprisingly fast, and the season only suffered a minor delay.  So, Opening Day is this week, and it's time for our annual MLB Futures prediction (which can't be any worse than last season's 22-1 pick on the Minnesota Twins).Notwithstanding last year's stumble, faithful followers know that my futures predictions are among the best (if not THE BEST) in the business.  Let's review some highlights just in the past few years.  In 2021, both my NBA (Milwaukee Bucks @ 13-2 odds) and College Basketball (Baylor @ 12-1 odds) futures bets paid off handsomely.  And, since we had no tournament in College Basketball in 2020, that was the 2nd straight NCAA Basketball season I hit my futures ticket, as I also had Virginia (at 22-1 odds) in the 2018-19 preseason (Virginia was my favorite Futures Wager of All-Time)!  Also in 2019, I cashed a major longshot in Baseball on the Washington Nationals (at 18-1 odds), and followed that World Series winner up in 2020 with the Los Angeles Dodgers (at 4-1 odds).  Among my other recent preseason winners were the Houston Astros in 2017 (at 10-1 odds), Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 (at 7-1 odds), San Antonio Spurs (2014, 14-1 odds; 1999, 11-2 odds), Golden State Warriors (2017, -125 odds; 2018, -160 odds), and Green Bay Packers (2011, 10-1 odds).This MLB season, we'll head north-of-the-border for our selection on Toronto at 9-1 odds.  Last season, the Blue Jays had one of the most talented rosters in their history.  It was a roster that included a Cy Young Award Winner and a young slugger who almost won the Triple Crown.  And yet, the 2021 Blue Jays failed to make the post-season despite winning 91 games.  They return this season with a team that is arguably even better -- one which is capable of the first 100-win season in franchise history.  That Cy Young starter -- Robbie Ray -- has moved on to Seattle, but an equally talented arm has come in to replace him, in Kevin Gausman.  The youngsters who drive much of the offense, namely Vlad Guerrero Jr, and Bo Bichette, are about to enter their prime.  And the Jays upgraded the hot corner with the acquisition of Matt Chapman.  Finally, their bullpen -- provided key pitchers don't suffer injuries -- shouldn't be an Achilles' heel this season.  It's true that the AL East division is loaded.  But the Yankees did not significantly improve an aging roster and are looking at a rotation which consists of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, and then some combination of Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, and Nestor Cortes.  And the Red Sox didn't add any significant arms either.  Indeed, that team just received bad news regarding ace Chris Sale and his ailing ribs.  Of course, the Rays are always a threat, but it's hard to say exactly what their lineup or rotation will look like this spring -- let alone who will be left come August.  So that leaves the Jays as strong favorites in the East and a likely club to go deep into the post-season in October.  Take Toronto to win the 2022 World Series.  They're currently +900 at DraftKings.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

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National League - Over/Under Preview

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

A look at Over/Under win totals for each National League team (last year’s record in parentheses):NATIONAL LEAGUE EASTATLANTA (88-73)2022 O/U – 90.5Matt Olson replaces fixture Freddie Freeman at first base, bit otherwise the Braves will run out the same squad that last season produced their first World Series title since 1995. Slugger Ronald Acuna played only half a season in 2021 due to injury, and he will miss maybe a month of this year. Starting pitching could be the only real problem.MIAMI (67-95)2022 O/U – 76.5The rebuild is ongoing, and the Marlins could make a run at .500. The offense was awful last season, but got a boost when Miami acquired corner outfielders Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia – they combined for 56 home runs last season.NEW YORK (77-85)2022 O/U – 90.5Anything less than a World Series appearance will disappoint Mets fans, who saw their team add Max Scherzer and All-Star Chris Bassitt to a rotation headed by Jacob deGrom. One concern – the Mets are old, and old teams tend to accumulate a lot of injuries.PHILADELPHIA (82-80)2022 O/U – 85.5Bryce Harper won the NL MVP last season, but it was nowhere near enough for the Phillies. So they added two more bats – Nick Castellano and Kyle Schwarber – to juice the lineup. Decent health could help the Phillies make the playoffs for the first time since the 2011 team led by Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard.WASHINGTON (65-97)2022 O/U – 71.5Anything close to .500 would be a dream season for the 2019 champs, who are starting from scratch after selling off most of their top players last season. Signing face of the franchise Juan Soto is a top priority. Ace Steven Strasburg is still recovering from his second straight season-ending injury.NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRALCHICAGO (71-91)2022 O/U – 75.5Lots of question marks at Wrigley this time around. A mid-season salary dump (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo) led to a predictable late-season dive, but opened the door for youngsters. The top of the rotation isn’t bad – Kyle Kendicks (14-7) and newcomer Marcus Stroman.CINCINNATI (83-79)2022 O/U – 74.5The Reds can score, but can they score enough to compensate for a pitching staff that is dependent on some rookies and already dealing with injuries? NL MVP Jonathan India and veteran Joey Votto anchor a solid lineup. Oddsmakers see a significant dip after last year’s +.500 season.MILWAUKEE (95-67)2022 O/U – 88.5Have to like the chances of any team with three All-Stars – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta – in the rotation and the game’s best closer in Josh Hader. The offense went flat in the playoff loss to the Braves, but they should at minimum get to the post-season for the fifth straight year.PITTSBURGH (61-101)2022 O/U – 65.5Fans may be tired of rebuilds, but that’s life in Pittsburgh. At least the Bucs can sell the future without lying as the minor league system is littered with talent. That won’t help right now, though. One interesting newcomer is Seiya Suzuki, who hit 38 homers in Japan last season.ST. LOUIS (90-72)2022 O/U – 84.5No one is really sure why manager Mike Schildt was canned, but new field boss Oliver Marmol has a veteran team to lead. Even Card legend Albert Pujols is back for a final good-bye (as DH). Injuries in the rotation could cause some problems early, so scoring runs will be a priority.NATIONAL LEAGUE WESTARIZONA (52-110)2022 O/U – 66.5Watching the bottom line often gets you to the bottom of the division in MLB, and that’s where the Diamondbacks find themselves. They’ve added no one of significance to a team that had the fewest (tied with Baltimore) wins in the MLB a year ago. Should be interesting to see if Madison Bumgarner has anything left.COLORADO (74-87)2022 O/U – 68.5The Rockies seem cemented into fourth place in the West, and hope against hope that newcomer Kris Bryant will jolt the team toward a playoff berth. Losing Trevor Story to the Red Sox was a tough body blow. Pitching is always an issue in Colorado, and they also lost starter Jon Gray. Crossing fingers.LOS ANGELES (106-56)2022 O/U – 97.5More coal to Newcastle, as the 106-win Dodgers bulked up the lineup by buying slugger Freddie Freeman. Are there any holes on this team? Maybe not. Walker Buehler (16-4) is now the ace, but Clayton Kershaw can still get batters out, so losing Max Scherzer won’t be the end of the world.SAN DIEGO (79-83)2022 O/U – 88.5SAN FRANCISCO (107-55)2022 O/U – 85.5Injuries late last season ended the Padres’ post-season hopes, and already NL home run champ Fernando Tatis is hurt (wrist) and will miss a few months. At least the rotation looks healthy right now, with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell carrying a lot of the load.SAN FRANCISCO (107-55)2022 O/U – 85.5The Giants just refuse to go away as a contender. They won’t win 107 again, but a playoff spot is within reach. All eyes will be on top prospect Joey Bart as he replaces Buster Posey behind the plate. Offense could be a problem if long-time vets Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt start to show their age.

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2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament: A Point Spread Review

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Apr 02, 2022

The 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament has certainly had a lot of surprises along the way.  But it wasn't as crazy as the 2021 Tourney, when there were a record-setting 16 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse (not including the "First Four" play-in round).  This tournament "only" had 13 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse.  But it did also have the historic journey of #15-seed Saint Peter's, which became the first team seeded 13 (or higher) to reach the Elite Eight round.  The 2021 event also had the most upsets (14) by a team seeded at least 5 spots worse than its opponent, but this tournament fell just shy of that mark with 12 such upsets.  But, like last year, when the final matched-up #1 seeds Baylor and Gonzaga, the cream eventually rose to the top this season, and we have three teams in the Final Four seeded #1 or #2.  Only #8 North Carolina is truly a dark horse.Let's take a look at first four rounds of this tournament, from a point spread perspective.  We'll not include the First Four games in this analysis.The most striking fact is that underdogs have done very well, as they've gone 33-26 ATS (with one game a PK).  Here is a breakdown by seeds:#1 seeds:  9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS#2 seeds: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS#3 seeds: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS#4 seeds: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS#5 seeds: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS#6 seeds: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS#7 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS#8 seeds: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS#9 seeds: 3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS#10 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS#11 seeds: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS#12 seeds: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS#13 seeds: 0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS#14 seeds: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS#15 seeds: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS#16 seeds: 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATSAnd here is a breakdown of point spread ranges:Underdogs of +3.5 or less:  9-11 ATSUnderdogs +4 to +7.5:  10-6 ATSUnderdogs +8 to +11.5:  7-2 ATSUnderdogs of +12 or more:  7-7 ATSLike last season, the games have tended to go under the total, as the unders are 34-26 through the first four rounds (35-29 if you include the "First Four games).Let's take a look at some other point spread situations:Teams that won their conference tournament (against foes that didn't win their conference tournament):  15-16 ATSTeams off a straight-up loss (against foes not off a loss):  8-9 ATSTeams off back-to-back losses (against foes not off back-to-back losses):  3-2 ATSTeams off ATS loss (against foes not off an ATS loss):  13-17 ATSTeams off back-to-back-ATS losses (against foes not off back-to-back ATS losses):  12-12 ATSTeams off back-to-back ATS wins (against foes not off back-to-back ATS wins):  19-13 ATSTeams off 3 SU/ATS wins (against foes not off 3 SU/ATS wins):  13-9 ATSTeams off an upset win (against foes not off an upset win):  11-10 ATSTeams off an upset loss (against foes not off an upset loss):  6-8 ATSTeams off a double-digit win (against foes not off a double-digit win):  13-10 ATSTeams playing with revenge:  3-1 ATSGood luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, EPL, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 02, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. Philadelphia hosts Charlotte at 12:40 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with the total set at 231.5. Cleveland visits New York at 1:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Brooklyn plays at Atlanta at 7:40 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 241. Miami is at Chicago at 8:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. Utah travels to Golden State at 8:40 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 219.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Florida plays at New Jersey at 12:35 PM ET as a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Colorado hosts Pittsburgh on ABC at 3:05 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 6. The puck drops at 7:05 PM ET for five games. Winnipeg plays at home against Los Angeles as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Boston is at home against Columbus as a -350 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Montreal as a -340 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto visits Philadelphia as a -285 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Carolina hosts Minnesota as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Calgary plays at home against St. Louis at 10:05 PM ET as a -245 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Dallas is at San Jose at 10:35 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday college basketball card has the two final four games in the NCAA tournament on TBS at the Caesars Superdome. Kansas plays Villanova at 6:09 PM ET in the opening game. The Jayhawks are on a nine-game winning streak after their 76-50 victory against Miami (Florida) as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Wildcats won their ninth-straight game with a 50-44 upset win against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas is a 4-point favorite with a total of 133. Duke plays North Carolina in the nightcap at 8:49 PM ET. The Blue Devils won their sixth game in their last seven with a 78-69 victory against Arkansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Tar Heels won their 10th game in their last 11 with their 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Duke is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Liverpool hosts Watford on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -2.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Four matches start at 10 AM ET. Brighton and Hove Albion plays Norwich City on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City visits Burnley on Peacock as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Chelsea is at home against Brentford as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Southampton travels to Leeds United on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Aston Villa plays at Wolverhampton on CNBC in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2. Manchester United is at home against Leicester City on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 01, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Toronto visits Orlando as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 220.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Dallas plays at Washington as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. Boston hosts Indiana at 7:40 PM ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 223. Four NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Sacramento travels to Houston as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Phoenix plays at Memphis as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. Milwaukee is at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 232. Detroit visits Oklahoma City as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 220. San Antonio hosts Portland at 8:40 PM ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. Denver plays at home against Minnesota at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 235. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against New Orleans at 10:40 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 234. Seven games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Three games drop the puck at 7:05 PM ET. Nashville travels to Buffalo as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Tampa Bay is at home against Chicago as a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers are at home against the New York Islanders as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Detroit plays at home against Ottawa at 7:35 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Edmonton hosts St. Louis at 9:05 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vegas visits Seattle at 10:05 PM ET as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Anaheim plays at Arizona at 10:35 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Coastal Carolina hosts Fresno State in the championship game of The Basketball Classic at 6 PM ET. This contest was originally scheduled for Thursday before unforeseen travels issues with the Bulldogs prompted the game to be pushed back a day. The Chanticleers upset South Alabama on the road, 69-68, as a 1-point underdog in the semifinals of this tournament on Monday. After losing in their opening game of the Sun Belt Conference tournament to Georgia Southern, they beat Maryland-Eastern Shore and the Florida Gulf Coast in this tournament before beating the Jaguars on Monday to raise their record to 19-13. Fresno State won their third straight game to reach the finals with a 67-48 victory against Southern Utah as a 7-point favorite on Monday. After losing in the second round of the Mountain West Conference tournament to San Diego State, the Bulldogs rattled off wins against Eastern Washington and Youngstown State in this tournament before their victory against the Thunderbirds to begin the week. They have a 24-13 record. Fresno State is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 126.5.

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How Have Teams Fared After Winning an NCAA Tournament Game in OT?

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

Are NCAA-B tournament teams that come off a victory in overtime in their previous NCAA tournament game at a disadvantage in their next game, or does that dynamic gets priced into the line by the oddsmakers?It remains an ongoing question. There were six overtime games in the NCAA tournament in March. Perhaps analyzing those results can offer insight?Notre Dame outlasted Rutgers in two overtimes, 89-87, as a 1-point underdog in one of the first four games. The ten additional minutes did not appear to take a toll on a Fighting Irish team that did not rely on a deep bench as they made it to the weekend before losing to Texas Tech. They upset Alabama in the first round of the tournament, 78-64, as a 4-point underdog. St. Peter’s upset Kentucky, 85-79, in overtime as an 18.5-point underdog in the first round. That experience seems to energize the team as they proceeded to continue on a magical run that saw them become the first 15 seed to reach the Elite 8 where they lost to North Carolina. St. Peter’s pulled off three upsets along the way, including beating Murray State in the second round. Murray State’s loss as an 8.5-point favorite was the first team to not cover the point spread after winning their prior tournament game in overtime. The Racers needed overtime to cover the 2 points the oddsmakers had them laying in their opening round game against San Francisco which they pulled out, 92-87. Creighton defeated San Diego State, 72-69, in the first round of the tournament as a 2.5-point underdog. They played valiantly against Kansas in the second round despite the injury suffered to Ryan Kalkbrenner in the overtime of the game with the Aztecs. Yet the Bluejays lost the game ultimately, 79-72, as a 13-point underdog. North Carolina blew a 25-point lead against Baylor in the second round but used overtime to upset the defending national champions, 93-86, as a 5.5-point underdog. The Tar Heels followed that up by upsetting UCLA, 73-66, as a 2.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16. Arizona needed overtime to get past TCU, 85-80, as a 9.5-point favorite in the final game of the second round. The Wildcats were then upset by Houston, 72-60, as a 1.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16.In all, NCAA tournament overtime survivors went 4-2 against the spread in their next tournament game. Three of those four winners pulled off upset victories in their next game with Creighton the only team to parlay their momentum into an upset win. Both overtime losers, Arizona and Murray State got upset as a favorite after not covering the point spread as a favorite in their overtime victory in their previous game. These are interesting trends to continue to scrutinize next year. Good luck - TDG.

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The Sacramento Kings Are Still Playing Hard (and Covering)

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The Sacramento Kings may be out of the playoff race, yet they are offering some point spread value down the stretch as they play hard for head coach Alvin Gentry. They played Houston as a small road favorite on Wednesday in a game between two teams playing for next year in the Western Conference. The Kings were on a two-game winning streak before losing at Miami to an angry Heat team desperate to end a four-game losing streak in a 123-100 loss on Monday. Because they are not going to make the playoffs this year, they appear to have shut down De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis for the rest of the season with their nagging injuries. Yet the team is still competitive with rookie Davion Mitchell being given the keys to lead the offense. When they drafted Mitchell with the ninth pick in the first round out of Baylor, many observers were scratching their heads considering they already had Fox and Tyrese Haliburton as starting guards. Yet after Haliburton was traded to Indiana with Sabonis coming over in return, Mitchell has been given the room to develop. In the last five games since Fox has been out before Thursday’s game, Mitchell was averaging 22 points per game with 7 assists per game, 3 rebounds per game, and 1 steal per game. Sacramento beat the Rockets, 121-118, with Mitchell scoring 24 points while adding 8 assists and 5 rebounds. Sacramento cannot do too much to help their ping pong ball odds for the upcoming NBA draft lottery. Having the sixth-worst record in the league, they are losing ground quickly against the Indiana Pacers who are in complete free-fall after that trade. The Kings began the last day of March remaining 5 1/2 games above Oklahoma City who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. At this point, Gentry probably wants his team to continue to play well and build positive momentum for the future while seeing what Mitchell can do. Our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month was with Sacramento in that Wednesday game in Houston. Bettors who had had -2.5 tickets won, yet there -3s out there with those punters having to settle for the push. The Kings will remain an interesting option for the rest of the regular season. They have covered the point spread in sixteen of their last twenty-five games in the second half of the season along with nine of their fourteen games this month. They are 5-1-1 ats in their last six games on the road, and they have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road against teams not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Good luck - TDG.

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Gaming Out Some Game Theory Under the New NFL Overtime Rule

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

I have previously offered my proposal for a change to the NFL overtime rules: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeI have also written my thoughts about how the recent NFL change to the overtime rule may only kick the can regarding the problem they are attempting to solve: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/nfl-overtime-rule-change-kicking-the-can-or-game-theory-lollapoloozaIn that second article, I identified some interesting Game Theory circumstances that coaches will now have. These decisions do not solve the inherent structural problem from the advantage of winning the coin flip award, but it does offer some avenues for good or bad coaching decisions to determine the ending of the game. I see three questions that head coaches will now encounter.(1) We just won the flip — do we want the ball first or second?The answer to this one may initially seem pretty straightforward since years of the college football overtime system have provided many examples to analyze how this dynamic plays out. Most college football teams who win the right to choose the first option in overtime choose the second possession. The logic is that the offense that understands exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game has an advantage. What should an offense do if confronted with a fourth down? The team with the ball first may decide to simply kick the field goal. But this could be a mistake since their opponent now knows they can win the game with a touchdown — and change their play-calling to be more aggressive. On the other hand, if the team with the ball first attempts to go for it on fourth down — and fails — then their opponents seize a huge advantage since they can play conservatively and win the game with a short field goal. An important concept within Game Theory is this: it is disadvantageous to make the first critical (potentially game-defining) decision. Why is this? Putting yourself at unnecessary risk foregoes the opportunity for your opponent to offer you an advantage, free of charge (without taking a risk). Think of these scenarios as a game of chicken — the first one that blinks puts themselves at a disadvantage. This is the strategic foundation in chess to delay the deployment of the queen (with the Game Theory exceptions of this norm, notwithstanding). This is why college football teams choose the second possession in the overtime period. This is (one of the reasons) why it is more successful to avoid choosing big underdog upsets in the first round of your March Madness bracket (for every Saint Peter’s Hail Mary, there are far more misses — so let everyone else choose UAB while you retain the sizable haul from Houston). This is also a foundational reason that aggressive play in poker is advantageous when it forces your opponent to put all their chips at risk. Yet the “obvious” Game Theory decision within the new NFL overtime rules is not so obvious in practice. While the college system rotates who gets the ball first and last from round to round, the NFL system maintains the same order from round to round — but without a guarantee that that the team going last in round one will ever get the ball again (if their opponent scores first in that hypothetical round two). Opting for the ball last in the first round might doom that team to never getting a second chance at the football. This brings us to the second question.(2) If trailing by seven points in overtime, should you attempt a two-point conversion if you score a potential game-tying touchdown. If the team chooses (to attempt) to simply tie the game with an extra point, then all their opponent needs is a field goal to win the game. Is the team better off by simply trying to win the game with a two-point conversion now? The real question is simple: does the team have a higher chance of successfully converting the two-point conversion than they do in stopping their opponent from scoring a touchdown or field goal? In practice, determining the true answer is very hard. Game Theory suggests the more opportunity you offer your opponent to make a mistake, the more likely they will. But the margins are getting thinner. (3) Should the team getting the ball first in overtime attempt a two-point conversion after their touchdown with the knowledge that their opponent could hypothetically win the game with a two-point conversion if they counter with a touchdown?The real question posed to this team seems to be: are their odds of missing the two-point conversion lower than the risk assessment of (a) the probability that their opponent would choose to win the game with a two-point conversion rather than tie with an extra point (question (2), above; there is no risk of going for the two-point conversion if your opponent will always play for the tie) and (b) the probability of the success your opponent has in converting this two-point conversion. In poker, these risk assessments take place all the time in assessing pot odds regarding staying in a hand or folding. This is getting pretty complicated. Game Theory suggests that the more complicated the situation gets, the more likely someone will make a mistake. I don’t know how this will play out (besides knowing what Brandon Staley will choose in every instance). And the sample sizes are small. Even if the success rate of two-point conversions drops to 35% in overtime given the pressure of the moment, the depletion of a team’s best plays (that were already burned), and injuries impacting optimum effectiveness, teams that go for two will find some success. After playing these scenarios out, I still tend to defer to the assumption that the team that provokes their opponent to blink first will then be at an advantage. We have five months to game this out some more, maybe my thoughts will evolve?Best of luck — Frank. 

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