Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/04/2022

Monday, Jul 04, 2022

The Monday, July 4th sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Miami Marlins visit Washington to play the Nationals at 11:05 AM ET. Braxton Garrett takes the ball for the Marlins against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Miami is a -115 money line favorite with the total set at 9.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Texas Rangers play at Baltimore against the Orioles at 1:05 PM ET. The Rangers send Dane Dunning to the mound to pitch against the Orioles’ Dean Kremer. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET in the opening game of their doubleheader. Zach Plesac takes the ball for the Guardians against Garrett Hill for the Tigers. Cleveland is a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Boston against the Red Sox at 1:35 PM ET. The Rays turn to Jalen Beeks as their opener to go against the Red Sox’s Michael Wacha. The MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts Chicago with Eric Lauer taking the mound for the Brewers against Justin Steele for the Cubs. The Brewers are a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Kansas City plays at Houston with the Royals pitching Jonathan Heasley against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Astros. The San Francisco Giants visit Arizona to play the Diamondbacks at 6:10 PM ET. Carlos Rodon takes his turn in the Giants' starting rotation against Madison Bumgarner for the Diamondbacks. San Francisco is a -175 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Three MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. New York plays at Cincinnati with the Mets pitching Taijuan Walker against Hunter Greene of the Reds. The Mets are a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Cleveland is at Detroit with Alex Faedo pitching for the Tigers against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Guardians in the nightcap of their doubleheader. San Diego hosts Seattle, with the Padres turning to Sean Manaea to duel against Chris Flexen of the Mariners. San Diego is a -175 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:20 PM ET. Kyle Wright pitches for the Braves against Dakota Hudson for the Cardinals. Atlanta is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 PM ET. The White Sox turn to Johnny Cueto in their starting rotation to pitch against the Twins’ Dylan Bundy. Chicago is a -185 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Oakland to play the A’s at 9:07 PM ET. Alek Manoah pitches for the Blue Jays against Cole Irvin of the A’s. Toronto is a -230 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:10 PM ET. The Dodgers send out Julio Urias to pitch against the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. Los Angeles is a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League concludes with the Winnipeg Jets playing at Toronto against the Argonauts at 7:30 PM ET. The two-time reigning Grey Cup Champion Blue Bombers won their third straight game to start the season with a 26-12 victory against Hamilton as a 5.5-point favorite on June 24th. The Argonauts fell to 1-1 on the year after a 44-3 loss at British Columbia as a 4-point underdog on June 25th. Winnipeg is a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 42.5.

2022 Central Michigan Chippewas Preview

by Matt Fargo

Sunday, Jul 03, 2022

Central Michigan Chippewas2021-22 Season Record 9-4 (6-2 MAC West) - 8-5-0 ATS - 5-8-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 7Defense - 4OverviewCentral Michigan had the most experienced team coming back in the MAC last season and it took advantage by going 9-4 including a Sun Bowl win over Washington St. The Chippewas have only 11 starters back but that includes the quarterback and there is experience present with a lot of underclassmen getting time last season. Head coach Jim McElwain took over a 1-11 program in 2019 and has put together a 20-13 record including a 15-7 mark in the MAC and he looks to have this team trending up as the roster is now his but not with a ton of talent. Winning in the MAC West is never easy with Toledo and Northern Illinois in the mix and it will not be easy this season but projections are high even with a schedule that is not in their favor. Central Michigan has not gone to back-to-back bowl games since 2016-2017 and that finally could change barring something unforeseen taking place. OffenseThe offense had its best season under McElwain as it averaged 452.2 ypg which was No. 28 in the country and 33.0 ppg, good for No. 33 overall. Seven starters are back with a mix of key playmakers returning but also some significant losses. Quarterback Daniel Richardson came into his own last season as he completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 2,424 yards while throwing 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions. His experience off a great season counters the losses as gone are two of the top three receivers that combined for 1,533 yards but Dallas Dixon and his 696 yards and 15.8 completion average is back. Richardson was sacked 27 times last season and now he has to work behind an offensive line that lost his two tackles to the NFL. Running back Lew Nichols III rushed for 1,710 yards and will be an integral part of the offense again and should see little if any drop off. DefenseWhile the offense is in fine shape, the defense looks to be in big trouble. The Chippewas front six or seven depending on the scheme was outstanding last season as they finished No. 38 against the run which led the conference, and was No. 1 in the country in tackles for loss, averaging 8.2 per game and No. 4 in sacks with 3.3 per game. Now it is a redo as they lost seven starters including their two best pass rushers, their leading tackler and their two top linebackers. For the latter, Central Michigan has two good replacements but they are just sophomores and there is no depth. The defensive line is experienced with six senior and juniors so the push could be there but it is not the same talent. The problem was they finished No. 112 in passing defense and No. 95 in passing efficiency defense but they do have experience at cornerback while needing to replace the safeties. 2022 Season OutlookMcElwain is a big name coach with success at Colorado St. and Florida before arriving in Mount Pleasant but the recruiting has been lacking which is the case for a lot of the MAC. Despite the significant losses, the Chippewas can build on their five-game winning streak to end last season but it will take more than that to get through a difficult schedule. They open at Oklahoma St., arguably the best team in the Big 12, but then get two games at home against South Alabama and Bucknell before it gets ramped up against with another road game Penn St. The MAC slate is difficult with all West teams having projected O/U win totals at 5.5 or higher and they have to face Toledo and Northern Illinois on the road. The Chippewas own total is set at eight with seems very high for a team ranked No. 100 in returning production and a schedule that has only three sure wins and a lot of swingers.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jul 03, 2022

The Sunday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers host the Kansas City Royals on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET. Tarik Skubal takes the ball for the Tigers against Brady Singer of the Royals. Detroit is a -130 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Miami visits Washington with the Marlins pitching Pablo Lopez against the Nationals’ Erick Fedde. Miami is a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Milwaukee plays at Pittsburgh with Brandon Woodruff making the start for the Brewers against Jose Quintana for the Pirates. The Brewers are a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 1:37 PM ET. The Blue Jays turn to Ross Stripling in their starting rotation against the Rays’ Shane Baz. Toronto is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. New York plays at home against Texas, with Carlos Carrasco pitching for the Mets against Jon Gray of the Rangers. The Mets are a -140 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. New York visits Cleveland with the Yankees pitching Jordan Montgomery against the Guardians Triston McKenzie. The Yankees are a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Atlanta plays at Cincinnati with Charlie Morton taking the mound for the Braves against Luis Castillo of the Reds. The Braves are a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games begin at 2:10 PM ET. Houston is at home against Los Angeles, with the Astros pitching Framber Valdez against the Angels’ Jose Suarez. The Astros is a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Minnesota hosts Baltimore with Delvin Smeltzer taking the ball for the Twins against Tyler Wells of the Orioles. The Twins are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Boston Red Sox play at Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. Connor Seabold pitches for the Red Sox against Keegan Thompson for the Cubs. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:05 PM ET. The Diamondbacks give the ball to Zac Gallen to face Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Arizona is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Chicago White Sox play at San Francisco against the Giants at 4:05 PM ET. Lucas Giolito pitches for the White Sox against John Brebbia for the Giants. Two MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. Los Angeles is at home against San Diego, with the Dodgers turning to Clayton Kershaw in their starting rotation against Mackenzie Gore for the Padres. The Dodgers are a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Seattle hosts Oakland with Robbie Ray pitching for the Mariners against Frankie Montas of the A’s. The Mariners are a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN and ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET has the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies turn to Zack Wheeler to duel against the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright. Philadelphia is a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jul 02, 2022

The Saturday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 17 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays visit Toronto to play the Blue Jays in the opening game of their doubleheader at 12:07 PM ET. Shane McClanahan takes the mound for the Rays against Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays. The New York Yankees play at Cleveland against the Guardians in the first game of their doubleheader at 12:10 PM ET after their contest on Friday got postponed because of rain. The Yankees get Gerrit Cole on the mound for the early after he was scheduled yesterday. He faces the Guardians Kirk McCarty. The Minnesota Twins host the Baltimore Orioles at 2:10 PM ET. Sonny Gray pitches for the Twins against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Minnesota is a -225 money line favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against St. Louis, with the Phillies pitching Kyle Gibson against the Cardinals Mathew Liberatore. The Phillies are a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. San Francisco is at home against Chicago with Logan Webb taking the hill for the Giants against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. The Giants are a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Milwaukee travels to Washington with the Brewers pitching Aaron Ashby against the Pirates Bryse Wilson. Miami visits Washington with Daniel Castano going for the Marlins against Jackson Tetreault for the Nationals. Miami is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Five MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. Seattle plays at home against Oakland on FS1 with George Kirby taking the ball for the Mariners against Paul Blackburn for the A’s. Seattle is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta is at Cincinnati with the Braves turning to Spencer Strider against the Reds Tyler Mahle. The Braves are a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Texas travels to New York with Martin Perez pitching for the Rangers against Trevor Williams for the Mets. Kansas City plays at Detroit with the Royals tapping Kris Bubic to go against the Tigers Beau Brieske. Houston hosts Los Angeles with Jose Urquidy pitching for the Astros against Patrick Sandoval for the Angels. The Rays pitch Drew Rasmussen against the Blue Jays Thomas Hatch in the second game of their doubleheader at 6:07 PM ET. The Yankees send out Nestor Cortes to pitch against the Guardians Aaron Civale in the nightcap of their twin bill at 6:10 PM ET. New York is a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Fox broadcast has two regional games at 7:15 PM ET. Boston plays at Chicago with Josh Winckowski pitching for the Red Sox against Alec Mills for the Cubs. The Red Sox are a -140 money line road favorite. Los Angeles hosts San Diego with Tyler Anderson taking the mound for the Dodgers against Yu Darvish for the Padres. The Dodgers are a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Colorado Rockies play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:10 PM ET to close out the card. The Rockies give the ball to Austin Gomber to duel against the Diamondbacks' Dallas Kuechel. Colorado is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 12.Week 4 in the Canadian Football League continues with the Saskatchewan Roughriders playing at home against the Montreal Alouettes on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Alouettes upset the Roughriders in Montreal on June 23rd, 37-13, as a 2.5-point underdog. Saskatchewan is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.

2022 California Golden Bears Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 01, 2022

California Golden Bears2021-22 Season Record 5-7 (4-5 Pac 12 North) - 7-5-0 ATS - 5-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 4Defense - 5OverviewCalifornia has won eight games only three times since 2009 and that has been the max so not much has gone right. Following only four games in 2020 with the program getting hit hard with COVID, 2021 was already at a disadvantage with limited playing time coming in despite 18 returning starters. Head coach Justin Wilcox has gone 26-28 in five seasons which is not terrible and it is a tough school to get blue chip players and the Golden Bears had the No. 60 recruiting class coming in this season. The cupboard is not totally bare but it is damn close as only nine starters are back which is the fewest in the Pac 12 so making a move in the North will be difficult. But good things could happen as this is a good coaching staff that can get the most out of their players as we saw in 2019 when the Golden Bears went 8-5 despite bringing back only 11 starters. A bowl game is a coin flip. OffenseCalifornia had their best offensive season under Wilcox but that is not saying much as it averaged 386 ypg and 23.8 ppg, No. 75 and No. 97 respectively. With only four starters back, there does not seem like much hope to improve the unit but there are some newcomers that could make a difference right away. At the top of the list is quarterback Jack Plummer who transferred in from Purdue after losing his starting job last season which is a head scratcher after completing 68.5 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in four games but never got another chance. The top two receivers are gone but that might not be an issue with Plummer having not worked with anyone. Also gone is leading rusher Christopher Brooks but he had just 607 yards on the ground and the offensive line needs to be retooled so there will be a lot of moving parts early on. DefenseThe Golden Bears defense was better than the offense but not by much. They allowed 370.1 ypg which was No. 55 in the country although the scoring defense was better where they allowed 22.3 ppg, good for No. 35. They were very inconsistent though as they allowed 17 points or less five times and 32 points or more four times and a lot of those inconsistencies were due to poor third down defense where they were No. 120 and that needs to improve immensely. Like the offense, there are a lot of replacements but the returning players are proven playmakers that will have to step up even more. The pass rush will get better with a pair of solid defensive ends and a linebacking corps that is the strength of the unit. The secondary allowed too many big plays early in the season and settled down later albeit against some poor passing offenses. Expect improvements there. 2022 Season OutlookWilcox has not had a season worse than two games under .500 but has had only two winning seasons and the average runs from Jeff Tedford and Sonny Dykes eventually cost them their jobs so Wilcox has to figure out how to get more wins. It might take a bowl game to save his job even as respected as he is and for a young team, the schedule is ideal. The Golden Bears open with UC Davis of the FCS at home and then host UNLV before travelling to Notre Dame. California then opens Pac 12 play against Arizona at home and then has swing games against Washington St. and Colorado on the road, feasibly putting it at 5-1 if things go right. The second half is much tougher but they get Washington, Oregon and UCLA at home. The O/U win total is 5.5 and it has a solid shot at the over based on the schedule but any early slips and surpassing that total will be tough.

2022 BYU Cougars Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 01, 2022

BYU Cougars2021-22 Season Record 10-3 (N/A) - 5-8-0 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 8Defense - 11OverviewThis will be the 12th and final season for BYU playing as an Independent before joining the Big 12 next season and it has flourished playing a wide variety of schedules. The problem with no conference affiliation is that it does not get invited to a top level bowl with 2020 being the perfect example after going 10-1, it was rewarded with a trip to the Boca Raton Bowl. The Cougars have had only one losing season over this stretch, a 4-9 campaign in 2017 where they played an absolutely brutal top heavy schedule losing their first seven games against FBS teams. Going 21-4 over the last two seasons has put BYU back on the map and it is loaded for another big year with 19 returning starters and a ranking of No. 2 in returning production. Head coach Kalani Sitake is in his seventh season while building a great foundation and he has an opportunity to make his new conference take notice. OffenseBYU took a step back last season from 2020 on offense as it averaged more than 70 fewer ypg and put up 11 fewer ppg but of course that was with Zach Wilson at quarterback yet still finished in the top 30 in total offense, scoring offense and passing offense in 2021. Jaren Hall took over last season and was solid in 10 games where he threw for 2,583 yards and 20 touchdowns with just five interceptions and he should be even better. The real strength is the offensive line as BYU did lose one starter but is loaded and this is considered one of the best lines in the country that allowed only 15 sacks last season. The Cougars lost leading rusher Tyler Allgeier who ran for over 1,400 yards but the transfer portal and returning depth will make them just fine. Hall has three of his top four receivers back as well as tight end Isaac Rex so both rushing and passing offenses will thrive. DefenseThe defense was not great last season as BYU finished No. 74 overall, No. 77 in passing and No. 66 in rushing but it was opportunistic with 25 takeaways that led to a good scoring defense. Now it is time to make a huge leap. It is rare for a team to get every starter back but that is the case in Provo and after last season, they will be out to prove something. The Cougars had only 20 sacks last season which was tied for No. 98 in the country so they need a better pass rush and will get it with another year to develop. BYU had trouble against the run as it allowed 156.8 ypg, No. 58 overall, on 4.4 ypc and like the pass rush, it will get better as the linebackers are strong, versatile and deep. The secondary was solid with 15 interceptions, tied for No. 14 in the nation and that can go way up if they can increase that pressure to the quarterback. This unit will be flying around everywhere. 2022 Season OutlookMoving to the Big 12 will be monstrous for the program as recruiting will pick up with a chance to take even another step forward. 2022 is the focus right now though and BYU has the ability to create some momentum going into next season. It will not be easy based on the schedule as nine of their 12 games are against teams with a winning record from last season. Six are against proven perennial winners in Oregon, Baylor, Notre Dame, Arkansas (maybe not perennial but very improved), Boise St. and Stanford and only two of those are at home. There are six nearly guaranteed wins on the slate so it will take some upsets to get to double-digits which is more than possible with this roster. The O/U win total is 8.5 which is relatively low but the linesmakers have taken the schedule into consideration yet the Cougars should be able to sneak over that total.

2022 Buffalo Bulls Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 01, 2022

Buffalo Bulls2021-22 Season Record 4-8 (2-6 MAC East) - 3-8-1 ATS - 6-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 4Defense - 6OverviewBuffalo had a good little run going starting in 2017 where it went 6-6, but no bowl game, and then put up three more solid seasons where it went 24-10 and made three straight bowl appearances. This included an undefeated COVID shortened regular season in 2020 where it lost in the MAC Championship but closed with a bowl win and things were looking up. However, head coach Lance Leipold left the program and took a lot of his staff with him to Kansas and Buffalo made an interesting hire with Maurice Linguist who came in with no coaching experience higher than a defensive backs coach. It showed as following a season opening win against Wagner, the Bulls went 3-8 the rest of the way with two of those wins coming by just one point. There is now a lot to replace on both sides of the ball and a program that was on the upswing now has to look for answers. OffenseThe offense was average last season as it finished No. 63 in the country at 410.6 ypg with a balanced attack but it had its share of inconsistencies in the passing game. Now, the Bulls have to basically start over and it begins with quarterback Matt Myers who brings a rushing aspect but he has to become a more consistent passer as in limited action last year, he completed only 54.4 percent of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions. He does inherit two of the top three receivers from last season but getting them the ball could be an issue. Buffalo allowed only 16 sacks last season which was tied for tenth fewest in the country but the offensive line is now in a complete rebuild. The Bulls have always possessed a solid running game but 1,000-yard rusher Dylan McDuffie is gone and while Ron Cook, Jr. has potential, it drops off quick after that. DefenseBuffalo allowed more than 30 points only five times last season but when it did, it was bad, and the Bulls have enough pieces in place for the unit to improve. They averaged 3.1 sacks per game last season which was No. 16 in the country and they bring a good core back led by nose tackle Daymond Williams, who led the team with 6.5 sacks, and linebacker James Patterson, who led the team with 114 tackles and should be a first team MAC selection. The 4-2-5 scheme does have a lot of depth up front with eight upperclassmen in the two-deep rotation but the backend will have to make significant strides, especially at the corners. Buffalo was decent against the pass only because they were getting gashed in the running game and the Bulls had only three interceptions, tied for second fewest in the nation, and the 11 total takeaways were No. 118 and that has to improve. 2022 Season OutlookIt was not a good start for Linguist in his first season and things are not looking good in year two playing in what looks to be a better conference overall. The Bulls bring back some key veteran players but there are just too many holes to fill for them to make a big jump. The schedule could not set up worse for an inexperienced team as five of the first seven games are on the road and while the Bulls end with a favorable home slate, it will be too late. They have just five home games and four are against teams with winning records from last season. Buffalo opens the season at Maryland where it is an early three-touchdown underdog and then has its home opener against Holy Cross followed by four of the next five on the road, the only winnable game being at UMASS. The Bulls 5.5 O/U win total is a tad lofty considering the four wins from last season and a tougher slate this year.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 01, 2022

The Friday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Boston Red Sox travel to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. Rich Hill takes the mound for the Red Sox against Adrian Sampson for the Cubs. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays at 3:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays turn to Jose Berrios in their starting rotation against the Rays Corey Kluber. Toronto is a -130 money line favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:05 PM ET. St. Louis visits Philadelphia with Miles Mikolas pitching for the Cardinals against Bailey Falter for the Phillies. The Cardinals are a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Washington is at home against Miami with the Nationals sending out Josiah Gray against the Marlins Trevor Rogers. Washington is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves play at Cincinnati against the Reds at 6:40 PM ET. Max Fried takes the ball for the Braves against Mike Minor for the Reds. Atlanta is a -255 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 7:05 PM ET. The Brewers turn to Corbin Burnes to face off against the Pirates Roansy Contreras. Milwaukee is a -195 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Three more MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. New York is at home against Texas with Chris Bassitt pitching for the Mets against Glenn Otto for the Rangers. The Mets are a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. New York visits Cleveland with the Yankees pitching Gerrit Cole against the Guardians Aaron Civil. The Yankees are a -215 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Kansas City plays at Detroit with Brad Keller pitching for the Royals against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Tigers. Three MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Baltimore with the Twins turning to Joe Ryan to battle against the Orioles Spenser Watkins. Minnesota is a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Colorado hosts Arizona with Antonio Senzatela pitching for the Rockies against Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 11.5. Houston plays at home against Los Angeles with the Astros turning to Cristian Javier to pitch against the Angels Michael Lorenzen. Houston is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games start at 10:10 PM ET. Los Angeles is at home against San Diego with Tony Gonsolin pitching for the Dodgers against Blake Snell of the Padres. The Dodgers are a -175 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Seattle plays at home against Oakland with the Mariners pitching Marco Gonzales against the A’s James Kaprielian. The Mariners are a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants host the Chicago White Sox at 10:15 PM ET. Alex Cobb pitches for the Giants against Lance Lynn for the White Sox. San Francisco is a -150 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The fourth week in the Canadian Football League continues with one game in a battle of winless teams with Hamilton hosting Edmonton at 7:30 PM ET. The Tiger-Cats lost their third game in a row this season with a 26-13 loss at Winnipeg as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. The Elks lost their third straight game on Saturday in a 30-23 loss at Calgary as a 9-point underdog. Hamilton is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5.

Golden State: A Great Dynasty and Just Good Enough in a Down 2021-22

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

Congratulations to the Golden State Warriors for winning their fourth NBA title since 2015. That answered critics worried that they were a team caught between generations from their core three of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green and their new generation of young players led by James Wiseman, Jordan Poole, and Jonathan Kuminga. But in hindsight, the Warriors may be remembered as a team carried by Curry who got it done despite an inconsistent Thompson still in long-term recovery from his torn ACL and Achilles injuries and a declining Green who already appears to be in the second half of his career. I thought this would be a seven-game series that the Warriors would win (but I remained undecided on the likely point spread winner early on during the NBA Finals). I incorrectly thought Boston would play Golden State very tough on the road in the decisive fifth game. Could the Warriors get yet another superman effort from Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting in Game Four to even the series at 2-2? Head coach Steve Kerr had a dilemma regarding offering playing time to Kevon Looney. Golden State had a significant weakness in rebounding that comes with their reliance on outside shooting. In the Celtics’ 116-100 win in Game Three, they controlled the boards and outrebounded the Warriors by a 47-31 margin. They scored 52 points in the paint and scored 22 points off 15 offensive rebounds which allowed them to win by 16 points despite only making 12 of 35 shots (37.5%) of their shots from 3-point range. Kerr gave Looney more court time in Game Four to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Game Three. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end. Boston head coach Ime Udoka was unable to push the buttons in Games Five or Six to expose that liability — but that may speak more to the limitations of his team playing in their first NBA Finals. Game Five was certainly pivotal — and it exposed the lack of championship experience of this Celtics group. It reminded me of how Golden State lost 2016 final to Cleveland. Boston’s Marcus Smart got too caught up in drawing fouls and flopping, a game within the game. Smart was flopping throughout the second half in a close game and then whining for calls which is just rarely going to happen for teams playing on the road (and by a player who lacks a title, despite being the reigning Defensive Player of the Year). And then the refs rewarded Jordan Poole's flop from a phantom Smart elbow (that missed by a mile) that the officials still called as a flagrant foul. That helped cement Golden State's 4th quarter momentum swing. The refs injected themselves into the game — and they got it wrong. Boston dug themselves too big a hole to win Game 5, but, wow, they still could have covered if they could have just been given the room to rebound before the refs started giving the Warriors 3-point swings (and Smart being on tilt did not help, of course). That Poole 3-pointer at the buzzer to end the third quarter certainly played a role in re-establishing the momentum for Golden State — and laid the foundation for Smart losing focus by doing his best Neymar impersonation by flopping around before Poole gets away with his flop. The Warriors went on to win by a 104-94 score despite Curry having that off-day by missing all nine shots from behind the arc.The Celtics' lack of urgency in handling and passing the basketball was been infuriating to watch at times. They had yet to learn that every playoff possession demands finer attention to detail — when Golden State turns the ball over, it is usually a function of their attempt to be aggressive (and is more forgivable). Too many of Boston’s 18 turnovers in that Game Five were a product of lackadaisicalness. It was tied for most turnovers they had committed in their last nine games and tied for the second-most in their last 62 games. Conversely, the Warriors only committed six turnovers in Game Five which was tied for the fewest turnovers they committed all season going back to Game Three of the regular when they also only had six turnovers at Sacramento on October 24th. The Celtics need to upgrade their point guard position in the offseason, but a lack of a true distributor does not explain how they followed up those 18 turnovers in Game Five with 22 turnovers in Game Six. Udoka could not fix the too many unforced errors that were giving Golden State scoring opportunities in transition. Maybe Boston will learn from the experience. But I do not think this Warriors team beats the Warriors team in 2017 that lost to the Cavaliers. And this group certainly does not beat the LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love trio. Golden State then won two titles with Kevin Durant the third wheel with Curry and Thompson. But this ’21-22 group reminded me of that ’17 squad that got caught up in talking and engaging in flopping theatrics with Cleveland that eventually led to Green missing a game due to suspension. When the Cavaliers trailed 3-2 in that series, James had his team completely dial into the task at hand. The Warriors still were engaging in the extra-curricular — and it played a role in them losing the last two games in the series. I am not sure this 2021-22 team learned much from that experience (outside of the value of adding Durant). But Golden State did benefit from playing a young and inexperienced Celtics team. They did not even have to play the young and inexperienced team from the year before the Phoenix Suns who could not get past Dallas. That Mavericks team had one great player in Luka Doncic before then banking on getting hot from behind the arc. Boston benefitted in getting to the finals by outlasting the reigning champions in the Milwaukee Bucks who were without their second-best player, the injured Khris Middleton. And do not start about the Brooklyn Nets because if you think that team had a switch somewhere to somehow start playing defense and finding an offensive flow to their game behind the big two of Durant and Kyrie Irving who are living off the reputations of postseasons past, then you were watching a different game than me. The 2021-22 NBA season was a down year in the overall quality of the elite teams in the league. Kudos to Curry for doing what James did in the season in the bubble to seize on the championship opportunity. But while the Warriors were perhaps a team caught between generations, I suspect the NBA is experiencing a similar transition. While the NBA media breathlessly wonders about the offseason fates of Durant, Irving, and James Harden, I look to the league’s young superstars like Doncic, Ja Morant, and a handful of other players with loads of potential where the likely future NBA titles — and potential dynasties — will be had. Best of luck — Frank.

The Evolving Understanding of Baseball Sabermetrics

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

While alternating between watching Game Six of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and Sunday Night Baseball between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves, ESPN displayed a surprising list: Pitching Leaders in BABIP. BABIP is an acronym for “Batted Average on Balls In Play”. Removing home runs and strikeouts from a hitter's batting average is a more specific manner to detail batting average perhaps offering better insight into how hitters and pitchers are performing. It is an offshoot from some of the ideas initially espoused by early sabermetrician Voras McCracken who developed the influential metric “Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics.” I mention McCracken because his seminal paper on this subject offered a narrative of his as a child hitting balls in a cemetery where he discovered that what happens to the batted-ball put into play is purely a function of luck. What struck me at the time was how mediocre of a wiffleball hitter McCracken must have been. Any backyard wiffleball hitter developed at least some skill in being able to place a batted ball in a certain direction. But it had become a foundational established truth of sabermetrics that hitters had no control over the batted ball, despite the seeming inconsistency that hitters had plenty of control over the batted ball if it landed over the fence for a home run. The fantasy baseball “experts” at ESPN would eager to deploy BABIP to identify players who were due for improved or declining numbers based on their BABIP number. Pitchers with high BABIPs were unlucky and those pitchers with low BABIPs were too lucky and sitting ducks to get blown up in their next appearance. Using the same logic, hitters with high BABIPs were riding good fortune, and hitters with low BABIPs were likely due to see better numbers. The fact that future Hall of Famers like Ichiro Suzuki was usually at the top of the BABIP list for hitters and Clayton Kershaw was at the top of the lowest BABIP numbers for pitchers gave little direct pause to the experts (probably not enough space at the website to detail that along with the trials and tribulations of their fifth-place teams in all their “experts” league in content as compelling as food pics on Twitter). In later years, these fantasy baseball experts (a few who are still detailing their latest experts league exploits even today) reigned in their BABIP as “all luck” to then claim it was all the amateur fantasy baseball players who were misusing BABIP. The expert manner to deploy the metric was more nuanced and sophisticated, you peons, yet this must have been ESPN's proprietary information as these experts rarely communicated how to evaluate the nuances. And the assumption remained that Ted Williams simply had no power to impact where the ball went off his bat. So to now see ESPN now fully incorporate BABIP into their “endorsed” statistics for their Sunday night broadcast — but with the assumption that BABIP is a component of skill — well, I was amused. This is the same network that will have their 4th-and-1 percentages come down from the heavens in the fall to tell you how much smarter they are than the idiots coaching football teams — all setting up their 12 hours of Hot Take Debate TV programming the next day. Fielding independent statistics was always more complicated to discover hidden meaning that McCracken and ESPN fantasy baseball experts suggested. But to paraphrase Marshall McLuhan, the “medium is the message” — and in this instance, the appearance of having more sophisticated knowledge of baseball is too often the point of the message, regardless of the coherence of the argument. There is a reason why these experts get to selectively mention the current state of their dozen fantasy baseball teams. They are experts because we were just told they are experts. For handicappers and bettors, having the “expert” business card laminated for posterity does not help at all if picking loser after loser at the betting window. For me, I experimented for a few years comparing team BABIP numbers versus the starting pitcher’s BABIP to determine discrepancies: playing behind the same defense, were certain starting pitchers generating big gaps in the net BABIP differential? If so, that difference could help identify starting pitchers who were experiencing luck/unluck relative to their baseline numbers. What I am looking for is underlying numbers that offer conflicting evidence to how a starting pitcher looks when only evaluating Win/Loss record, ERA, and WHIP. Eventually, I began analyzing these discrepancies between team BABIP and starting pitcher BABIP but made it specific to ground balls and line drives. A batter probably does not want to hit a ground ball, so those numbers might illuminate luck (or unluck for the pitcher) if the BABIP for ground balls is high. On the other hand, hitters want to hit line drives — so high Line Drive BABIPs is probably a good thing for hitters (and a bad thing for pitchers).I had pretty good success with this approach, but it took a lot of work. Eventually, I concluded that the advanced ERA formulas used by SIERA and xFIP did a fine enough job of identifying starting pitchers that were due a visit from the Regression Gods, either in a good or bad way. The xFIP metric stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (admittedly, from the McCracken family tree of logic). I like it because it normalizes the home runs that a pitcher allows from their fly ball rate since home runs allowed are also dependent on other factors like the ballpark). The folks at Baseball Prospectus developed SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) in a complicated formula that attempts to project the ERA moving forward by taking into account the types of batted balls a pitcher puts into play. I like this tinker because it leaves room for the possibility that hard-hit balls (and direction) are a function of skill. It reminded me of the work I was doing with BABIP specific to Line Drives (hard-hit balls). These days, I use xFIP and SIERA as guides — but it is only one of the tools in my toolboxes. Most pitching metrics have a bias against ground ball pitchers despite the sustained success of pitching coaches like Dave Duncan of the St. Louis Cardinals who seemingly had his pitching staff overachieve for years. Fortunately for me, my reliance on team trends kept me away from betting against too many Cardinals’ starting pitchers hoping that their poor fielding independent numbers (like low strikeouts) would finally start catching up with them. Sports analytics continues to evolve, especially for those of us dependent on good results rather than self-serving propaganda. Look for basketball and soccer to improve in their evaluation of players and teams when they start detailing expected baskets/goals versus an individual’s net edge versus expected baskets and goals. Like Ichiro, Kershaw, and Ted Williams, Stephen Curry and Lionel Messi are elite players for a reason. Best of luck — Frank.

Lucrative NHL Futures attractive with four teams

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

The Colorado Avalanche hadn't been champions of the National Hockey League for 24 hours when the conversation about next season was underway.Moments after the final horn sounded and the Avalanche polished off the two-time champion Tampa Bay Lightning, the newly crowned champs were installed as the favorite to repeat in 2023.The Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers are next in line, followed by the Lightning.None of the aforementioned were higher than 10-1 to win it, which automatically disqualifies them from my window of opportunity when talking about value.For me, no matter the league, if I'm playing a future price, I want the biggest number I can get with a team I think can get into the playoffs and challenge.But when it comes to the NHL, the team can sneak its way into the postseason, and I'll be just fine with a big futures ticket. After all, the No. 1 overall seed hasn't won the title in more than 10 years. And when it comes to hockey, it's generally about the hot team, with the right coach and the best goaltender.That's why I've assembled a quartet of teams for you to consider if you're feeling froggy about the 2023 Stanley Cup and some awfully big numbers on teams that could quite possibly sneak into the postseason next spring.NEW YORK RANGERS (20-1, courtesy DraftKings) - This is a team that got to the Eastern Conference Final under first-year coach Gerard Gallant, and left plenty on the table for them to eat next season.It really doesn't get much better than Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin, who finished the season with a league-leading 2.07 goals-against average (among goalies with a minimum of 42 starts). Shesterkin will undoubtedly come into next season with a chip on his shoulder after being outdueled by Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy in the ECF.The Rangers also boast high-end forwards Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, a trio that combined for 254 points last season. Kreider ranked third in the league with 52 goals.Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox leads the defensive corps, while up-and-coming talent Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kaako, and K'Andre Miller are all capable of breakout seasons.VANCOUVER CANUCKS (45-1, DK) - There may not have been a more dangerous sleeper down the stretch than the Canucks, in terms of playing the spoiler against playoff-bubble teams. After firing Travis Green, the Canucks were 32-15-10 with Bruce Boudreau as bench boss. Vancouver's .649 points percentage ranked 11th in the NHL during that span, while its 2.67 goals-against average was fifth-lowest in the league. Also in that span, the Canucks had the second-best power play (26.7%) and 11th-best penalty kill (80.5%).Star forward Elias Pettersson was a point-per-game player after the coaching change. The former Calder Memorial Trophy (top rookie) winner could very easily vie for the Hart Trophy (MVP) on any given year as he continues to improve.The Canucks are expected to make personnel changes during the offseason, the biggest being J.T. Miller getting traded. Considering we're talking about a top-tier center who tied for ninth in the NHL with 76 points once Boudreau took over, Vancouver is in position to demand someone decent in return.With Thatcher Demko in goal, the Canucks have a legitimate No. 1 netminder who ranked sixth with his .918 save percentage during Boudreau's tenure.Now roll all of that into the fact Vancouver plays in arguably the worst division in the NHL, and this is most certainly a sneak-into-the-postseason squad.DALLAS STARS (45-1, DK) - There's a new bench boss in Dallas, as ousted coach Peter DeBoer leaves Las Vegas and heads to Big D with his defensive mind and tactical style of coaching.If there is one thing we can take from DeBoer's past, it's that his teams always seem to do well during his first season at the helm (see: New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights, to some extent). He's been to two Stanley Cup Finals, and he knows how to establish chemistry immediately.The Stars head into next season with a No. 1 center in Roope Hintz, who was third on the team with 72 points; a budding star in winger Jason Robertson, who was second with 79 points, including a team-high 41 goals; and an elite defenseman with Miro Heiskanen, who was fifth on the team with 31 assists and led the Stars with an average on-ice time of 24:53.In net, the Stars will have to make a decision, one that shouldn't be hard when potential franchise goalie Jake Oettinger. He played in 48 games last season and finished with a 2.53 goals-against average and .914 save percentage.PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (60-1, DK) - There's no doubt the Flyers are rebuilding, and I'm well aware they'll do so without Claude Giroux. But incoming bench boss John Tortorella is like DeBoer, someone who can rile his players the first season and who will get the most out of his troops. Again, especially at this price, I just want to sneak them into the postseason with a big ticket and hedge my way from there.One of the biggest offseason storylines will be whether or not the Flyers can fix Carter Hart, who is a potential No. 1 goalie. Hart will have competition in camp, as I expect Felix Sandstrom to get a chance in training camp. There's also towering Ivan Fedotov, who stands 6-foot-7 and is 205 pounds, and who could push both for playing time with a strong camp.With plenty of time for rest and recovery since the season ended, and leading into training camp, I would think the Flyers will have Sean Couturier back healthy, along with possibly Ryan Ellis, too.Is there a checklist for the Flyers' offseason, to even contend in their division? Absolutely. But with a new voice on the bench, and a lively vibe in a rowdy sports town, I like the odds on Philly and believe it could be another sneak-into-the-postseason squad.

Countdown to NFL 2022-Part 2

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Jun 30, 2022

I began my Countdown to NFL 2022 on Wednesday with a brief recap of last year's NFL's memorable postseason, one which ended with the Rams earning their first NFL title since the 1999 season — and their first representing Los Angeles since 1951. Capped the article noting that the 2022 regular season kicks off on September 8th, when the defending champion Rams host the Bills. The Bills are tied with the Vikings, having each appeared FOUR times in the Super Bowl without a victory to their name. The Vikings' most recent appearance came in 1977, although they have appeared in the conference championship game SIX times since. As for Buffalo, the Bills' four Super Bowl appearances all came in consecutive years from 1991-94 and Buffalo has only appeared in ONE conference championship game since (in 2020). I'll pick up on that theme here in Part 2 of my "Countdown" series.The Bills and Vikings are two of 12 NFL franchises that have never won a Super Bowl, each going 0-4. The Bengals have reached Super Sunday three times (going 0-3), while the Falcons and Panthers have each gone 0-2 in their two appearances. The Cardinals, Chargers and Titans have all lost their lone Super Bowl appearance. That leaves FOUR teams that have NEVER been in the Super Bowl? Members of that 'club' include the Browns, Jaguars, Lions and Texans. Let me note that the Browns and the Lions have both won championships prior to the NFL merger in 1966. As for the Jags and Texans, those two have only been around since 1995 and 2002, respectively, and are the league's two newest expansion teams. Looking at this 'Group of 12,' the Bengals and Bills are VERY real contenders entering the 2022 season plus the Cards (11-6) and Titans (12-5) were both playoff teams in 2021. In college hoops they call them "Blue Bloods" and I'll 'steal' that name to describe the Patriots and Steelers. Each has won SIX Super Bowl titles. All six victories for the Pats have come under the leadership of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the first coming in the 2001 season and the most recent in 2018. However, in the two seasons since Brady’s departure (his last season was in 2019), the Patriots missed the playoffs in 2020 (7-9) and were routed 47-17 by the Buffalo Bills in the wild card round in 2021. As for the Steelers, FOUR of their six Super Bowl titles came in the 1970s, followed by a 26-year drought. Second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger led Pittsburgh to its fifth trophy in a win over the Seahawks in 2005 and then Big Ben and the Steelers captured their sixth title in 2008. Coming in right behind the Pats and Steelers are the Cowboys and 49ers, who each own five Super Bowl titles. Thirteen teams in total have won two or more Super Bowls, with the Giants and Packers checking in with four titles, while the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins (Commanders?) each own three titles. The Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins and Ravens each own two wins.As far as making it to the NFL's "Ultimate Game" goes, the Pats have 11 appearances, with the Broncos, Cowboys and Steelers making it eight times apiece. The 49ers have seven Super Bowl appearances, rounding out the top-five franchises. Let me end by 'stealing' another phrase made popular by college hoops, "One and Done!" FIVE franchises have made just ONE Super Bowl appearance, the Cards, Chargers, Jets, Saints and Titans. I noted earlier that the Cards, Chargers and Titans have come up short in their only tries, but the Jets (I think ALL will remember that one!) and Saints each won their only 'shot at glory!'I'm just getting started with my countdown to the 2022 NFL season series and will be back Wednesday (July 6th) with some more "Random Thoughts." Follow my Ness Notes right here, exclusively at BigAl.com. Good luck...Larry

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