World Cup Group Betting

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Oct 31, 2022
The World Cup is right around the corner starting on November 20 and there are so many different ways to bet on it. One great way to find some value is by betting on the groups individually whether it be on a team to win the group or just to qualify. It is time to break down each group in the tournament and find the best value in each when it comes to betting on teams to qualify.


Group A: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group A are Ecuador, Netherlands, Qatar, and Senegal. This group seems to be pretty straight forward and hard to find good value in. The host country Qatar is in this group and they have been a very dominant team in their region of the world, even winning the Arab Cup in their last meaningful competition played in, but they still lack a lot of talent compared to these other countries in their group and it is likely they finish at the bottom of the group. The favorite to win this group at -225 is the Netherlands but they are by far the strongest team in this group and they are going to win it as they have the most talent in the group and have the best chance at making a deep run. The only real value in this group would be to pick a team to qualify between Senegal and Ecuador, and even though it is a bit pricey at -138, Senegal to qualify is the way to go here. Senegal has a lot more talent on their team than Ecuador does and a lot of the starting players for Senegal play on a lot of the big European clubs while Ecuador’s starters come from smaller clubs in South America mainly. Senegal is probably the strongest African country in the tournament and they have enough talent to make it out of this group. Senegal to qualify at -138 is the most value you will find in this group. 

Group B: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group B are England, Iran, USA, and Wales. This group actually offers quite a bit of value considering that there are some pretty decent teams who are near even in strength and the one real super power in England, who is also the big favorite to win this group, has not been in great form in recent competitions. From the recent UEFA Nations League matches going all the way back to the last Euro Cup, this England team has been very good on defense as they do not allow many goals but scoring goals has become a big issue for them and that could get them into trouble here in a 3 matchday group. Iran does have the weakest team in this group and it is likely that they will finish at the bottom of the group due to a lack of talent but, this group is wide open and they could definitely find a way to get some points in their matches which will make this group a lot closer in the end. Both USA and Wales are very similar in strength and with each being at plus money to qualify, both of them offer some real value. Wales, like England, plays very well on defense in their matches and they will play a stingy style to try and get points from every match without taking losses, but just like England they can struggle to score goals sometimes. USA has a lot of talent similar in strength but they are also a team that has goal scorers and that is going to be key for them in this group. They likely have the advantage over Wales and should be able to qualify over them but, USA also has a real shot to win this group with the way England has been playing recently. If USA can muster up a draw against England and split the points, there is a real chance they could tie on points and win the group with a better goal differential by beating up on the other 2 teams. The best value in this group is in USA to qualify at +100 and to win the group at +550. 

Group C: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group C are Argentina, Mexico, Poland, and Saudi Arabia. The big favorite in this group to win it is Argentina and for good reason. Argentina has the most talent on their team at every position out of all of these teams and they have been dominating South American teams in their recent matches. They are going to be a force in this group as they have a good defense but they can also score goals. Saudi Arabia is likely to finish at the bottom of the group as they have the least amount of talent and they play a very defensive style that will not be able to keep some of these teams out of their net and Saudi Arabia has not been scoring many goals in their recent matches either. This is another tough group for qualifying though as there are 2 really good teams in Poland and Mexico who are both good enough to qualify. Argentina is likely going to win this group so there is no real value there but only one of these other teams can qualify and there is value on both with each being -110. Poland has a very good goalkeeper in Szczesny from Juventus and they have one of the best strikers on the planet in Lewandowski, but their midfield is lacking in talent and it has affected their goal scoring recently. Mexico does not have the best striker on the planet but they do have a number of very good forwards that can score goals and a group of solid midfielders to go along with their goalkeeper from the best club in Mexico this season. Mexico just has more squad depth than Poland does, Mexico is the better option to qualify at -110.

Group D: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group D are Australia, Denmark, France, and Tunisia. This group does not have a lot of value in it with the biggest favorite to win the group being France at -250 and then Denmark coming in at -250 just to qualify. Tunisia has the weakest squad of all these teams and even Australia does not have nearly as much talent as France and Denmark. France and Denmark are going to be the 2 teams qualifying from this group, but there is still a bit of value to be had here. France is going to qualify from this group but they may not win the group with the way they have been playing recently. They have been in awful form lately and have also been dealing with injuries to some of their star players and also incidents between them off the field. France is also the defending World Cup Champions from the last one and it is very hard for a team to repeat. Denmark has been in great form coming into the tournament and they are very familiar with this France team as they were in their UEFA Nations League group this past season. Denmark even beat France both times in their 6 matches, 1 at home and 1 away, and they have a very talented team that plays great defense but can also score a lot of goals. Considering Denmark just beat France twice over the last few months, it is very possible that they beat them again here and if that happens then Denmark would be in the driver's seat to win this group. The best value here is in Denmark to win the group at +300.

Group E: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group E are Costa Rica, Germany, Japan, and Spain. This group has a lot of value in it with some teams being undervalued and others being overvalued. Costa Rica does not have much of a chance as their team is not very talented compared to these other 3 but these other 3 teams are all very good. Germany is by far the best team in this group and it is not even close. They have a lot more talent on their team than any of the others and they have really been fixing up their defense over the last few months. This is a much improved team from the last Euro Cup with a much better defense, a very strong midfield, and a lot of goal scorers that will find the net in their matches. Germany is not even the favorite to win this group but there is a ton of value on them at +110 here. The favorite to win this group is Spain at -120 and that is very generous considering Spain is not a very good team. They have a lot of talented players but they are still a very young team that is finding their way and they are not a team that scores a lot of goals in their matches. They rely too heavily on their defense which is very good but as soon as they get matched up with a team like Germany that has that kind of firepower, their defense is going to be exposed. Spain will be lucky to even make it out of this group as their inability to score goals is going to hurt them, especially when they go against Japan who plays a very similar style of good defense and does not score a lot. If these two split the points from their match or if Japan can even find a way to win it, Spain is going to be in a lot of trouble. The best value in this group is in Germany to win the group at +110 and in Japan to qualify at +400.

Group F: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group F are Belgium, Canada, Croatia, and Morocco. This is another group that does not have a lot of value in it. Morocco and Canada are both likely to not qualify as Belgium and Croatia both have much stronger teams with a lot more talent. Belgium is not the team they used to be though and they have really fallen over the last year or 2 with the way they have been playing. Croatia has been a very strong contender in every competition they play in and they have been making some very deep runs over the last few years. Both Belgium and Croatia are going to qualify here so there is not much value in those but Croatia has been playing very well recently and there is a chance with the defense they have that they will steal this group away from Belgium. The best value here is in Croatia to win the group at +250.

Group G: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group G are Brazil, Cameroon, Serbia, and Switzerland. This group has some nice value with these teams to qualify. You won’t find any value in a team to win the group as Brazil is the big favorite here and for good reason as they have one of the strongest teams in the world with all of their talent and depth at every position. No team in this group is going to come near touching them, especially Cameroon who has the weakest team in the group and will likely finish at the bottom. The value here is on the team to qualify though as both Serbia and Switzerland are very close with Serbia at +110 to qualify and Switzerland at +100. There is a ton of value here though as one of these teams is clearly better and they are going to be the ones to qualify. Switzerland has a very good defense that doesn’t allow many goals but they struggle to score goals and that will get them into trouble here, especially if it comes down to goal difference. Serbia also has a decent defense but their strength is in their scoring as they have some solid forwards and midfielders who have been on fire for them and their domestic clubs, scoring a lot of goals in recent matches. Serbia has a lot more firepower on their team and they have been in very good form coming into this tournament. The best value in this group is in Serbia to qualify at +110.

Group H: The 4 countries that will be playing in Group H are Ghana, South Korea, Portugal, and Uruguay. This is a very interesting group as there are a lot of good teams here. Portugal comes in as the favorite to win this group at -163 and even though that line is quite juiced, it still has value in it as Portugal has the best team in this group by far and should be a much bigger favorite to win this group. They are being undervalued here when they have a very strong team, but these other teams also have some value in them as well. Uruguay is the next biggest favorite as they are -200 to qualify and even though they do have a very good team, so does their competition. South Korea is the weakest of all these teams and they will likely finish at the bottom of the group but they could very well play out some draws and help make this a very close group in points. Ghana is also being very undervalued at +225 to qualify when they have a lot of talented players on their team and could easily take points from any of these teams. Uruguay is good as they have been rolling over teams in South America recently but their attack is also very old as their forwards are aging and their 1 good young striker is very high maintenance needing a strong midfield to feed him the ball. This could end up being a closer group in points and there is a good chance with the talent on this Ghana team that they could find themselves getting through over a Uruguay team that is past its prime. The best value here is Portugal to win the group at -163 and Ghana to qualify at +225.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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