Using Run Differential To Predict The American League

So last week we tackled the National League, using run differential as our guide for how the rest of the Major League Baseball season may go. This week, it’s time for a look at the American League.

Unlike the Senior Circuit, where run differential shows a pretty clear dividing line between the top nine and bottom six, there’s a bit of a “grey area” in the AL. But we can start at the bottom and rule four teams out as possible playoff participants: Oakland, Detroit, Kansas City and Baltimore.

Now given that run differential is once again the basis of this article, it may seem unfair to be ruling the Orioles (-18) out. But the AL East remains loaded and it would be a shock to just about everyone if the O’s didn’t finish last.

The A’s (-112), Royals (-99) and Tigers (-97) are absolutely non-contenders by just about any measure, certainly run differential among them. The A’s and Tigers are also the two worst offensive teams in all of baseball heading into July, by a lot. The A’s and Royals have been the two worst teams to bet on this season as well.

The team with the fourth worst run differential in the American League is the White Sox, which is a real surprise. The White Sox were expected to win the AL Central this year. Run differential (-52) says that’s unlikely to happen. The White Sox currently have a record of 34-38, but based on that run differential, they “should” have a record of 30-42. Only one team in baseball has exceeded its “Pythagorean Win Expectation” by a greater margin - the division rival Tigers.

I suppose it’s okay to remain somewhat bullish on the White Sox relative to their run differential, but the opposite is true with Seattle (-8). The Mariners were near the top of my regression list heading into 2022 as last year they won 90 games despite a -51 run differential. Even if the M’s run differential continues to suggest they’ll remain competitive, I do not think they’ll make the playoffs. 

Truthfully, I don’t think there will be a second AL West team to make the playoffs. The Rangers (35-37) and Angels (36-40) are both underperforming relative to their respective run differentials, +9 and +8, but it’s hard for me to see either winning more than 85 games this year.

So that leaves us with seven teams fighting for the six playoff spots. The Yankees and Astros would appear to be the two teams most likely to gain first round byes. The Yankees have been on a record-setting pace in the first half of the season and are my #1 ranked team in the power ratings. No surprise there. Entering Wednesday, the Pinstripes have outscored their opponents by 149 runs. The Dodgers (+128) are the only other team with a run differential north of +70.

Houston has the AL’s second best run differential at +62. Based on that number, I think it’s smooth sailing to another division pennant.

Right now, I’m thinking all three Wild Cards may go to the AL East. Behind the Yankees, you’ve got the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays and those teams have the third, fifth and sixth best run differentials in the AL right now. Boston had a great June and has the profile of a second-place finisher as of now. But one problem for the Red Sox (+60 run differential) is they have a pretty horrible 7-16 WL record vs. division foes. Toronto (+29) has the most one-run wins (18) in baseball. Tampa Bay (+19) with the second place finisher in the Central for the last Wild Card

Speaking of the Central, you’ve got two teams right now with positive run differentials: Minnesota (+47) and Cleveland (+11). Both have 34 losses on the year, but the Twins have six more wins and that’s a tough gap for the Guardians to make up. Run differential says they won’t do it, but it’s worth noting Cleveland had the better RD of the two teams about a week ago.