NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After the 1st Round

by Hollywood Sports

One of the data items I track is Over/Under results per each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total, and other games in a series that are likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions as to when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, these data provide just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. 

Game Ones had three Overs and five Unders in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. 

Game Twos had two Overs and six Unders in the first round.

Game Threes had seven Overs and one under. 

Game Fours had four Overs and four Unders. 

Game Fives had two Overs and six Unders.

Game Sixes had two Overs and three Unders. 

Game Sevens had one Over and one Under.

These data offer a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers are of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. 

A thing to keep in mind with all NHL data so far this season is that every number has been produced from divisional contests. There has to be a game played out-of-division. I am interested in if the exclusive divisional schedules would result in more Unders or more Overs given the heightened familiarity between the teams. 

In the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, there were 21 Overs and 24 Unders. 

Let’s break that data down by division.

North Division: four Overs, seven Unders. 

East Division: four Overs, seven Unders. 

Central Division: seven Overs, five Unders. 

West Division: six Overs, five Unders.

I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.

Best of luck — Frank.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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