NFL System of the Week - Monday Night Football

by Tom Stryker


Anytime you see a Monday night home dog, the knee-jerk reaction is to jump all over it.  From 1980 to 2000, teams in this simple situation owned a profitable 66-39 ATS record for 62.8 percent.  In case you haven’t been paying attention, that “old school” situation has hit the skids.  Since 2001, NFL Monday night home pups are on a dismal 47-62 ATS run for 43.1 percent and it’s time for investors to think differently.

When I approached the Team Stryker Database this week,  I decided I wanted to flip things around.  Instead of looking at these home dogs, I decided to analyze how effective road favorites were under the Monday night lights.  At first, there wasn’t much.  Then I stumbled across the following money-making situation.  Check out this beauty:

Since 1980, PLAY ON any Monday night road favorite priced at -3 or more provided their opponent arrives off a straight up loss and owns a team won/loss percentage of .334 or less.

40 Year ATS Record = 40-17-1 ATS for 70.1 percent

This Week’s Play = TAMPA BAY

This is a basic set of parameters that really turned a nice profit.  It’s simply a good road team favored over a lesser opponent that takes the field without confidence off a straight up loss.

There is one way to make this primetime system even better.  If our “play on” guest owns a pointspread won/loss percentage less than .630 – so they’re not a covering machine – this Monday Night NFL Road Warrior situation tightens up to a lucrative 30-7 ATS including a jaw-dropping 21-1 ATS if their opponent arrives off a competitive loss of 13 points or less.  The Buccaneers fit both of those money-making parameters.

Forget about the Monday night home dog.  It’s not clicking any more.  Instead, lay the lumber with Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday night and ride this new awesome system home.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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