NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Mar 17, 2024
When handicapping the NBA, I often will use revenge as a factor.  But I generally need a team to have done more than just lose to its opponent in the season's prior meeting.  Some of the other things I will look at would be the site of the previous meeting, the point spread in the previous meeting, the win percentage differential between the teams, the magnitude of the loss, and how many points our revenge-minded team gave up to its opponent.

Certainly, scoring has been up in the NBA the last few years.  And one of my NBA regular season systems has been getting a lot of plays as a result.  That system goes against favorites (or PK'em teams) that scored 145 (or more) points in winning the season's previous meeting.  After giving up a lot of points to an opponent, the revenge-minded team no doubt will want to play harder defense the next time around.  And that's generally all we need to get the edge (and the cover) in the current game.  Since 1990, this system has clocked in with a 38-16 ATS record (70.3%), including 9-1 ATS if our revenge-minded team owned a winning record.  This system will have at least 3 more plays this season (including one tonight):

March 17:  Atlanta Hawks + over Los Angeles Clippers
March 25:  Indiana Pacers + over Los Angeles Clippers
April 4:  Atlanta Hawks + over Dallas Mavericks

The Hawks +9.5 are a play, tonight, over the Clippers as a result of their 149-144 loss at home to the Clippers, on February 5.  And Indiana also gave up a lot of points to the Clippers in its prior meeting, as it lost 151-127 at home, on December 18.  And, finally, on April 4, the Hawks will look to avenge a 148-143 upset home loss to the Mavericks back on January 26.  Of note is the fact that the Pacers do own a winning record, so they will fall into the 9-1 ATS subset in their game on March 25 vs. the Clippers.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's All Rights Reserved.