by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Jul 31, 2021
Game time: 1:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Southeast
Season-to-date (as of Saturday)
Brewers: 62-42 (1st place, NL Central)
Braves: 51-53 (3rd place, NL East)
Recent lineups
Brewers:
Kolten Wong (Z) 2B
Willy Adames (D) SS
Omar Narvaez (Z) C
Eduardo Escobar (A) 3B
Rowdy Tellez (Z) 1B
Avisail Garcia (D) RF
Tyrone Taylor (D) LF
Jackie Bradley Jr. (Z) CF
Brett Anderson (L) P
Braves:
Joc Pederson (Z) CF
Ozzie Albies (A) 2B
Freddie Freeman (Z) 1B
Austin Riley (D) 3B
Adam Duvall (D) LF
Jorge Soler (D) RF
Dansby Swanson (D) SS
Stephen Vogt (Z) C
Charlie Morton (R) P
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Braves -135, Brewers +115; Over 9.5 -105, Under 9.5 -115
Recent form
Brewers: 6-4 in last 10
Braves: 5-5 in last 10
Ben Burns is 37-11 the past six weekends. Get Ben’s Sunday MLB Best Bets at our Shop Picks page, where you can find all of today's entire Major League Baseball premium pick predictions.
Brewers - Braves preview
We talked earlier in the week about how the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the unknown teams to observe down the stretch. Do they have enough pitching and offense to contend with the NL West triad?
They got off to a good start by defeating the Atlanta Braves 9-5 in the first game of the three-game series Friday night. The National League Central leaders improved to 20 games above .500 for the first time since 2018. That squad was one win away from a spot in the World Series.
Perhaps some deja vu on the horizon?
The same resiliency that 2018 crew showed was on display Friday. After starting pitcher Corbin Burnes gave up four runs in the first inning, the Brewers put up four runs in the third and fourth innings each to pull away. Avisail Garcia had three of those RBIs.
“Some of the criticism of the offense was at the beginning of the season and was for a fairly short stretch, in my opinion,” Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell said. “Getting down 4-0 is not a recipe for winning baseball games. So, we did a nice job tonight.”
The Brewers entered Saturday’s contest seven games clear of the red-hot Cincinnati Reds in the division.
Milwaukee looked good after its ace got rocked, aided by homers from Willy Adames and Garcia. The Brewers showed at least they can get through any of the teams coming out of the NL East.
But the Braves are still very much in the playoff discussion. Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. out for the rest of the year, they’ve still got enough pop from the middle of their lineup. Austin Riley hit his 22nd home run during Friday’s matchup, but the offense significantly cooled after the four-run first. Atlanta is only four games back of the New York Mets for first place in the east, and trail the Philadelphia Phillies by a half game for second.
It wasn’t a fun night for both pitchers. Braves right-hander Touki Toussaint lasted only 3.1 innings and allowed seven runs in the contest.
The Brewers have been on a scoring tear during their four-game winning streak, outsourcing opponents by a whopping 37-8. To be fair, three came by way of a sweep against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s been hard to find teams that have taken care of business the way Milwaukee has in recent weeks. They’ll try to make it five straight Saturday with Brandon Woodruff on the mound.
Trends
The Brewers are absolutely capable of sweeping this series seeing how they’ve continuously swung the bats well. The key will be Brett Anderson. The Brewers’ starter has faced Atlanta three times in his career, going 1-2. His appearance on May 15, a 5-1 loss to Atlanta, was his first meeting against first baseman Freddie Freeman and his crew since July 21, 2015. He allowed four earned runs that game but the under cashed.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta’s projected starter, is 4-7 all-time against Milwaukee with a 4.23 ERA. So if you were looking for a pitching advantage here, good luck. The Braves are 7-8 in those starts and the under is 8-6 (+0.8 units).
Seeing how the money has swayed toward Atlanta for the traditional Sunday afternoon matchup, this looks like the perfect time to ride the Milwaukee bats as long as you can, seeing how they’re 29-14 in day games.
The Brewers are 14-10 as an underdog from +100 to +150. Understandably, this number will move by the time the second game of this set ends. The Braves are a .500 team (19-19) when favorites.
Prediction
I’ll be curious to see how much Milwaukee keeps this going. The more Cincinnati and Joey Votto keep putting up wins, the pressure will be on. So far, they’ve been able to keep things even-keeled. Take the Brewers while this number is hot, and go for the over. Brewers 9, Braves 5.
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert baseball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Milwaukee Brewers - Atlanta Braves prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB pick, projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
