Going for the Game 6 Gusto

Believe it or not, we’re at the half-way point of the college football season.  There are a number of teams that will be playing in their sixth game.  For those schools that got off to a hot start, that might not mean much.  But, for a handful of programs that got out of the gate slowly, game six could be a critical one.

 

If a team has a losing record after game five, there is a great deal for concern.  For the most part, these schools are in the heart of their conference schedule and wins aren’t going to come easily.  Suffering another loss at this point in the schedule only puts them further behind.  Of course, on the flip side, a solid win can bring a team in this setting back to respectability and turn things around in a hurry.

 

This week’s system takes a look at those college programs that go into a game six setting with a 2-3 SU record.  Simple math tells you that 3-3 SU looks a heckuva lot better than 2-4 SU.  With that thinking in mind, I turned to the Team Stryker Database.  Here is what I discovered:

 

Since 1980, PLAY ON any game six home favorite priced at -7.5 or more that owns a 2-3 SU record, provided their opponent holds a team won/loss percentage less than .800 and does NOT take the field off a blowout loss of 31 points or more.

 43-Year ATS Record = 70-35-2 ATS for 66.7 percent

This Week’s Play’s = MISSISSIPPI STATE & BOISE STATE

 Pretty simple, huh?  Here we have a team that is favored and hungry to get back to the .500 mark going up against an opponent that wasn’t seriously embarrassed in their last outing.  At the half-way point of the season, a school can rest comfortably with a 3-3 SU record.  It’s easy to turn things around with a mark like that.  However, a loss would drop a team down to 2-4 SU and getting back to .500 would take so much more.  

 

There is one parameter that we can add to make this general system stronger.  If our “play on” side carries a pointspread won/loss percentage less than .500, this situation jumps to a money-making 40-15 ATS for 72.7 percent.  Both the Bulldogs and Broncos apply to this tightener.  

 

Good luck with Mississippi State and Boise State this weekend.