Game 3 College Conference Jitters

by Tom Stryker

Thursday, Sep 14, 2023
It’s no secret.  Division games in pro sports and conference battles in college athletics just mean a little more.  When team goals are set at the beginning of a season, they always include winning the division or conference crown.  It’s truly a top priority.
When I started researching games that kicked off early in the season at game four or less, I began by looking at how well a team did in their first conference matchup.  In my opinion, making a statement in your first conference game carried a great deal of weight and importance.   It built momentum and set the tone for the rest of the way out.  
I’ll admit, I did find technical success with that concept in mind.  However, it wasn’t until I started bringing college teams into their conference opener off a couple of non-conference wars before financial sparks started to fly.  
As you know, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of early season technical situations that have performed very well.  My “Game Three College Conference Jitters” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years.  Take a look at this beauty.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any conference host in game three of the season provided they won their last battle by nine points or more and tackled a pair of non-conference foes in their previous two contests.

 43 Year ATS Record = 103-65-3 ATS for 61.3 percent

After competing against a couple of non-conference foes and now fighting in their own backyard off a solid win, the emotion of this first conference test proves to be too much for our host.  There are a couple of parameters that can be added to this system that really makes it pop.  
If our “play against” home team is priced as a favorite or an underdog of +7.5 or less and is tackling an opponent that arrives with steam off a blowout victory of nine points or more, this situation crumbles to a woeful 20-51-1 ATS.  With those two parameters live and our host locked into a revenge mode, this angle falls to a shocking 2-26-1 ATS.  Air Force and Florida are the two teams that fit this negative wagering situation.
Good luck with the Aggies (Utah State) on Friday and the Volunteers (Tennessee) on Saturday!

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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