Euro Cup Qualifying 2024

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Wednesday, Mar 29, 2023
The qualifying matches for the 2024 Euro Cup have already started with this last international break passing and every team has already played at least 1 or 2 of their 6-8 matches depending on the team and the group they are in. Not every group has value in it with some of the powerhouse teams in these groups being leagues above the rest of the group, but there is still plenty of value to be found in some of these. After watching these first 2 matchdays it is time to see which teams have some value when it comes to group betting in these qualifiers.

Group Betting Props

Group D Winner - Croatia -138: Croatia is currently tied with Wales in their group at 4 points after 2 matches but they are coming off of a very good World Cup campaign where they won the bronze medal and they have already looked very fierce in these first 2 matches. They allowed a late goal in their 1st match against Wales which gave them the 1-1 draw but they followed up with a dominant performance in Turkey with a 2-0 win and they are by far the best team in this group. Wales is tied for 1st place right now but they are not a very good team as they have a weak attack that struggles to score goals and it really showed in their last match with just a 1-0 win at home against Latvia. Turkey has a much stronger team than Wales does so Wales will be lucky to even qualify as Turkey is the better team and more deserving of the 2nd place spot, only 1 point behind Wales as well. Turkey was not able to compete with Croatia on their own home pitch though and that is going to be huge as it shows Croatia is still the strongest and most dominant team in this group both defensively and with their attack.

Group E Winner - Czechia -110: Czechia is a slight favorite to top this group right now as they currently lead with 4 points after 2 matches and they already have a 3-1 win over Poland who is the next best team in the group as it stands. Czechia looked really good in their home match against Poland but struggled to score at all in their away match against Moldova. Lucky for them though, Poland has also struggled to score goals in their matches as they are coming off of a very poor World Cup campaign and they struggled to score in their home match against Albania as well as they only won 1-0 in what should have been a better match for them. Czechia and Poland do play again near the end of the group stage but it may not even matter by then and Czechia already has a big advantage with the win in case it does get close. Czechia may have the same scoring troubles as Poland in their away matches but they have shown many times that they can score goals at home and they are going to really take advantage of their home matches in this group. Poland has already shown their struggles on attack in these last 2 matches as well as in the World Cup and besides Lewandowski striking they really have no support around him. Poland has been on the decline recently and Czechia has a much better team overall making them the best candidate to win this group.

Group F Top 2 Finish - Sweden +137: Sweden is currently sitting in 3rd place in their group as they are tied with Belgium at 3 points but they have a very good chance at coming back in this group and taking one of those qualifying spots. Sweden has 3 points from their 2 matches as they were embarrassed at home by Belgium in their 1st match but they followed up with a dominant performance against Azerbaijan, winning that match at home 5-0. Austria is currently leading the group right now with 6 points from 2 matches but they also had the luxury of playing the 2 worst teams in the group to start off and both of those matches were at home as well. They beat Azerbaijan 4-1 at home and beat Estonia 2-1 at home but even in these home matches where they should be a better team, they allowed the 2 worst teams in the group to each score a goal on them. That is going to be troublesome for Austria as they still have 2 matches left against the 2 tougher teams in the groups as well as 2 away matches against each of the weaker teams so their schedule only gets tougher from here. Sweden did not allow Azerbaijan to score on them at home and they were also able to score 5 goals in that match which shows how strong their attack can be but also how their defense is much better than Austria and that will be key in this group. Belgium is the obvious favorite to win this group and they will likely do so leaving just the 2nd place spot up for grabs but regardless, Sweden will finish higher in the group than Austria and they will be the team to qualify. Belgium is not the team they used to be either so there is always a chance that they collapse and finish out of the top 2 but Sweden will definitely be one of the teams to finish in the top 2 in this group. 

Group G Winner - Serbia -125: Serbia is the slight favorite to win this group and they are currently sitting in 1st place with 6 points from 2 matches. Hungary is the only real threat in this group as they are the slight underdog here but are also sitting in 2nd place in the group with 3 points from only 1 match played. Hungary still has more matches to play including 2 matches against Serbia still and it is going to be very close but this will come down to whoever can steal some points from their away matches. Lithuania and Bulgaria are both teams that are not very good but Montenegro is not nearly as bad and they play teams tough when they are at home. Serbia dominated their match in Montenegro and still struggled to score goals in that match but eventually they found the net twice to pull off the 2-0 win and that could be huge in this group as Hungary has only played 1 of their 8 matches and that 1 match was at home as well. Serbia also has a very strong attack that can score goals in their matches and their defense has really been improving a lot. Serbia was also in the last World Cup while Hungary missed that competition and the talent level on Serbia is also just better. This will be a very close group in the end but Serbia is the better team here and they will win this group.

Group H Top 2 Finish - Slovenia -138: Slovenia is currently leading this group with 6 points from 2 matches and even though they will likely not keep that spot at the top of the group, they have given themselves a great advantage with this strong start and are in a great position to stay ahead of the pack and qualify. They are in one of the larger groups with 6 teams instead of 5 but their group is also filled with a lot of mediocre teams. Denmark is the clear favorite here and even though they have only collected 3 points from 2 matches, they still looked like the best team in the group and will likely make a turnaround. The rest of the group is wide open though with teams like Finland, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and San Marino. None of these teams are very good teams and they all have a similar issue of troubles with their attack when it comes to scoring goals and struggling in their away matches as well. Other than Denmark, all of these teams are going to play more defensive styles in their matches as they all struggle to score goals and play well in their away matches, and that is going to be a huge issue as it will lead to more draws with each other so the big lead that Slovenia has with their 6 points right now could really help them in the future of this group. Slovenia has also been improving over the last year as they are winning more matches and have been climbing in the UEFA competitions so they really do have the best chance of finishing in the top 2 here and qualifying from this group.

Group J Top 2 Finish - Bosnia & Herzegovina +100: Bosnia is currently sitting in 3rd place in their group with 3 points from 2 matches and they have 2 teams ahead of them right now but still have a very good chance of making a comeback in this group. Portugal is leading the group with 6 points from 2 matches and no team will likely be catching them with the talent they have so that only leaves 2nd place up for grabs as Slovakia is currently occupying that spot with 4 points from their 2 matches. Slovakia did earn 3 points from their match at home against Bosnia and that is going to be huge in this group, but they also struggled to score against Luxembourg at home as they came away with a 0-0 draw in that match and they have yet to play an away match in this group. Slovakia does not have a very strong team and they have actually been slipping more and more over the last year. They are going to fall flat on their face in some of these away matches which will leave the door open for Bosnia to take advantage of these matches against some of the weaker teams and they will also be able to get that 3 points back against Slovakia at home. Bosnia has the better team with more talent and they have the best chance in this group at finishing in 2nd place and qualifying.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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