8 Starting Pitchers To Expect Positive Regression From

by Kyle Hunter

Tuesday, Jun 13, 2023
8 Starting Pitchers To Expect Positive Regression From 

There is a big enough sample size now to see what starting pitchers should have some positive regression coming. They have likely been unlucky in some way. These are guys to keep an eye on going forward. These pitchers are in no particular order. 

  1. Hunter Greene (4.01 ERA- 3.51 xERA and 3.31 FIP) Greene’s expected ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he should have even better numbers on the year. The Reds flame thrower has been improving in recent games. He has the stuff to dominate, and it might not be that far away.
  2. Jesus Luzardo (4.17 ERA- 3.56 xERA and 3.58 FIP) Luzardo is striking out 10.31 batters per nine innings. His walk rate is way down this year as well. His batting average on balls in play allowed is a very high .335. This is a young left hander that has a bright future ahead of him.
  3. Zack Wheeler (3.91 ERA- 3.26 xERA and 2.74 FIP) Wheeler may be 33 years old now, but he is still pitching extremely well. He’s stranding only 64.8% of baserunners on the season thus far. Wheeler is very likely to improve that number since it is far lower than the overall league average. 
  4. Pablo Lopez (4.25 ERA- 3.36 xERA and 3.78 FIP) Lopez is a bit of a tough pitcher to get a read on to be honest. He is more than capable of shutting down the opposition, but he is also capable of getting absolutely crushed. Lopez has drastic home/road splits in his career, and I will definitely continue to prefer to expect him to pitch better at home.
  5. Lance Lynn (6.72 ERA- 5.43 xERA and 5.30 FIP) I’m not here to tell you that Lance Lynn is going to turn things around to the point of being one of the best pitchers in baseball again. I do think the metrics are very clear though that Lynn has been very unlucky so far this year. There might be some chances to buy low on him.
  6. Sandy Alcantara (4.75 ERA- 4.13 xERA and 3.77 FIP) Alcantara was amazing last year, but he has been a big disappointment this year. Alcantara doesn’t have many pitches so he might not be quite as good as he appeared last year, but I also think he is better than his numbers look so far this season. I would expect improvement here. His left on base rate of 60.7% is extremely low.
  7. Chris Sale (4.56 ERA- 3.56 xERA and 3.69 FIP) Sale is one of the names that I didn’t really expect to see in the due for positive regression territory, but here he is. He started the season very poorly, but has been trending in the right direction.
  8. Nestor Cortes (5.16 ERA- 3.74 xERA and 4.58 FIP) Cortes is one I fully expected to show up on this list. He has pitched far worse than a year ago, but has had bad batted ball luck. This is a guy that I’d keep an eye on for buy low spots as we go through the latter parts of the season. 

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