3 Angles to Watch In College Football Late Season

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, Oct 31, 2022
3 Angles To Watch Late Season CFB 

The college football season feels like it just started, but we are technically now into the later part of the regular season. This week the games will be played in November. That means that rivalry games are right around the corner, and it also means you should check the weather before placing your wagers. 

I have found three late season angles you will want to keep an eye on for the late regular season period in college football. 

1. Big Conference Game Favorites Late- The angle here is backing big favorites in a conference game late in the year. The filters in this query are favorites of 21 points or larger in game nine of their season or later. Those big favorites in this spot are 249-199 ATS (55.6% ATS wins) dating back to 2006. The return on investment on this angle is much higher on road teams (14% ROI) as compared to home teams (5.6% ROI). My theory here is some teams that are big dogs this late in the season are ready to be done for the year.

2. Late Season Windy Unders- This is a nice totals angle for late regular season games played in windy conditions. In this angle the home team must be playing game number 11 or later of the season. The temperature must be 60 degrees or cooler, and the average wind in the game must be 10 miles per hour or higher. The under is a whopping 204-130 (61.1% Unders) dating all the way back to 2006 in this situation. The weather always matters, but some of these games with cooler temperatures and wind combined with rain or snow late in the season can be great for under bettors. 

3. Fade Non Conference Favorites Late- Non-conference favorites late in the season don’t seem to be motivated enough to cover large spreads. From game nine of the regular season on, with a spread of -13 or higher in a non-conference contest, fading that big favorite has been a good move. The non-con favorite is 46% ATS overall since 2006, but when you filter it down by teams receiving 60% or more of the bets (public favorites) the non-conference favorite dips all the way to 42.5% ATS since 2006. Be on the lookout for these spots. I believe these are really dangerous spots for the favorite largely because they usually have big rivalry games right around them on the schedule. This is the type of game that they might look over. 

Best of luck with your late season college football wagering. I hope these angles are helpful to you along the way! 

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