Larry Ness - New York Mets vs San Diego Padres

Larry's 10* NL Total of the Month

Handicapper

Larry Ness

League

MLB

Competition

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres

Release Date

06/06/2022 08:52 AM

Event Date

06/06/2022 09:40 PM

Bet Type

Over / Under

Pick

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Over 7 (-125) (Caesars)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

My 10* NL Total of the Month is on NYM/SD Over at 9:40 ET. The Braves were 51-53 in late-July of 2021 but went 37-20 the rest of the way and won the NL East (for the FOURTH straight season) before capturing the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. In stark contrast, New York went 22-38 down the stretch to finish in third place at 77-85, 11 1/2 games out of first place. The Mets made the 2015 World Series (lost 4-1 to KC) and made a one-game wild card appearance in 2016, but they've been playoff-less the last five years. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. Both teams are off to strong starts in 2022, as the Mets own the NL's best record (37-19), 8 1/2-games ahead of the Braves in the NL East. The Padres (33-21) welcome the Mets to San Diego just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and currently own the NL's No. 1 wild card spot. The starters in tonight's opener will be Carlos Carrasco (6-1, 3.63 ERA) for New York and Blake Snell (0-2, 4.80 ERA) for San Dirgo. Carrasco went 60-36 for Cleveland from 2015-2018, but the previous three seasons, was just 10-16 with a 4.69 ERA. However, he has made 10 starts for the Mets this season and generally has looked sharp. Snell hasn't been the same pitcher ever since Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. With the Rays leading 1–0 with one out, Snell was pulled by Kevin Cash for Nick Anderson in the 6th inning after pitching a shutout with two hits and nine strikeouts. The Dodgers then scored two runs in that inning and would go on to win the game 3–1 and the World Series for the first time since 1988. Snell opened the 2022 season on the injured list with a strained adductor, the same problem he had during the 2021 season. This marks just his fourth start of 2022 and the 'jury is still out' on this former Cy Young winner. Carrasco has pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues, spanning 264 games and 217 starts but has never faced the San Diego Padres. That changes tonight but note that while he has a 2.78 ERA and a BAA of .233 in six home starts, his road ERA is 5.06 and his BAA is .287 in four road starts. The good news for New York fans is that he takes the mound for a team batting a MLB-best .264, while averaging 5.11 RPG (3rd-best). As noted above, Snell remains a question mark and I'll play the OVER in this one. Good luck...Larry