NBA THURS LATE NIGHT O/U BAILOUT [45-34 RUN]
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers
- Time
- 11/04/2021 10:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Over 216 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday.
PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight.
We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*).
