- Analysis
- #472 SAN FRANCISCO (-) over Indianapolis at 8:20 PM EST
Back from a calf injury suffered on October 3rd against Seattle, QB1 Jimmy Garoppolo will return and help key this important San Francisco victory. The 49ers enter this contest on an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS run and, with the 5-1 Rams and 6-0 Cardinals currently running away with the division, head coach Kyle Shanahan knows his troops must win this game or they can kiss their NFC West title hopes good-bye.
Technically speaking, this is a lucrative spot for the Niners. Since November 3rd, 1991, regular season rested teams that hit the field off three or more straight up losses have rebounded to post a strong 35-19-2 ATS mark provided they are lined up against an opponent that holds a team won/loss percentage less than .500. If our "play on" side takes the field off a blemish of 12 points or less, this pro situation cruises to a profitable 24-7-2 ATS including an incredible 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS if they are priced as a favorite or an underdog of +1.5 or less. (Please note: That last tightener is on a magnificent 10-0 SU and ATS run since November 16th, 2003.) Also, when checking in off three or more pointspread losses in a row, San Francisco has quietly ripped off seven consecutive ATS wins.
Off the 28-point blowout home win and cover over the Texans and three consecutive ATS victories, this will prove to be a tough spot for the Horseshoes. As an underdog (or pick) checking in off three or more pointspread wins, the Colts have been a terrible investment notching an ugly 3-22 SU and 5-20 ATS record. In this role running on the road, Indianapolis falls to a nasty 1-15 SU and ATS including an eye-popping 0-15 SU and ATS provided this is not a Monday Night Football game. Also, when hitting the field of battle off a straight up win, Indy owns a weak 7-12 SU and 4-13-2 ATS mark provided its opponent arrives off a straight up loss. In this spot fighting a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .250 or better, the Colts fall to a miserable 5-11 SU and 2-12-2 ATS.
With a 2-3 SU record and an upcoming schedule that serves up a trip to Chicago to tackle the Bears followed by division home wars against the Cardinals and Rams, the 49ers need this victory badly. Jimmy G and the Levi's Stadium faithful will be the difference. Take San Francisco. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
