Nelly’s Sunday Night Best Bet 6-0 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Time
- 10/10/2021 08:20 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Two shutout wins and the top scoring differential in the NFL has the Bills climbing in stature but Buffalo’s path this season has been very favorable, facing no teams that currently have a winning record. Buffalo faced back-up quarterbacks in the two shutout wins and those were misleading results as well. The Bills have also only played one road game in the 3-1 start and the loss in Week 1 to the Steelers is looking worse and worse by the week. Buffalo’s offense facing a Chiefs defense that has surrendered big numbers will be enticing for many but the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC. These teams met with a similar price last January in Kansas City for the AFC Championship. That line was depressed as Patrick Mahomes was injured in the divisional win over Cleveland and the Chiefs were already dealing with a depleted offensive line. The Chiefs are 2-2 this season but they have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league and it took heroic closing efforts by the Ravens and Chargers to pick up wins. Kansas City has had seven turnovers in the past three games to help opponents scoring but Mahomes remains the #1 QBR quarterback in the league by a significant margin and the Chiefs the top offensive efficiency in the NFL by a significant margin. Josh Allen isn’t even a top 15 QBR player this season as his growth last season has stalled and Buffalo is 24th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this season despite the great scoring edges. Kansas City won by 14 in last season’s championship game and it was a 38-15 game into the final minutes as the Bills scored 11 points in the final four+ minutes with the outcome decided. The Chiefs had a 6.9 yards per play average compared to 5.2 for Buffalo and the offensive line for Kansas City is in much better shape now compared to then. Buffalo is a serious AFC contender as they have a much more favorable schedule than the Chiefs but Kansas City is still the superior team and this is an unheard of price for Kansas City at home in a meaningful game in the Mahomes era.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck
