Ben Burns - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

**3-0 YTD** THURSDAY 10* NFL O/U TOP GUN!

Handicapper
Ben Burns
League
NFL
Competition
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Time
09/30/2021 08:20 PM
Bet Type
Over / Under
Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Over 45 (-110) (DraftKings)
Outcome
Draw
Analysis
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Cincinnati OVER the total. Both teams have seen two of their three games fall below the number. Those results have worked in a our favor, as the line has come down a bit from its opener and could easily be higher. A closer look shows that both Jacksonville's loan road game AND Cincinnati's lone home game were high-scoring. The Bengals only game here was against Minnesota. The O/U line was 47 and the teams combined for 51. Meanwhile, the Jags' lone road game (at Houston) had an O/U line of 45.5 and finished with 58 points. Going back further finds that the OVER is 6-0 (or 5-0-1 *depending whether using 45.5 or 46 for 12/16/18 O/U line) the past six times that the Bengals were favored. All six games produced greater than 45 points. In fact, eight of the last nine games that the Bengals have played as favorite have finished with more than 45 points. The other had 44. That includes a 58-point affair when these teams hooked up last October, Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Burrow has more weapons and more confidence now. In only the second time in NFL history that a rookie QB, who was taken #1, faces a QB who was #1 overall the previous year, look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting.

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